Setting it up...

by bunner on Dec 7, 2011 8:54 AM EST

Oakland needs outfielders, the Phillies are apparently interested in Gio Gonzalez of Oakland, and it was reported earlier this off season that they are also interested in reacquiring Travis D'Arnaud from Toronto. The Jays could use an elite starting pitcher so is it being set up that the Jays could acquire an elite starter in a 3 team deal? Hear me out...

The Phillies have Cole Hamels who they reportedly won't be able to afford when he hits free agency after this year and in the past have traded one elite starter for another that they can control for a longer period (Lee/Halladay) so...The Phillies trade highly touted OF prospect Dominic Brown to Oakland for Gio Gonzalez (Oakland desperately needs OF'ers) and then turn around and deal Cole Hamels to the Jays in a package including Travis D'Arnaud?

AA would be dealing from a position of depth (catcher) as Arencibia is the starter and young/controllable already, AJ Jiminez and Carlos Perez are also in our top 20 prospects so there is some high end prospects to absorb the loss of our best prospect in D'Arnaud. Hamels would come in to add a dominating 1-2 punch with RickyRo at the top of the rotation though before making any move the Jays would require the ability to sign Hamels to an extension. Phillies would get a younger controllable starter for their long term needs and Oakland gets an elite young OF prospect who's ready to step in now.

This probably makes too much sense to actually happen but this time of year is always so much fun for baseball fans :)

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I don't think the Phillies will deal Hamels, I think they'll extend him

but in any case they still get a lot of value out of him since they’re competing

I tweet.

by benk on Dec 7, 2011 9:22 AM EST reply actions

I don't see the Phillies moving Hamels for D'Arnaud

Phillies are in win-now mode and Hamels helps with that more than D’Arnaud would. Plus, they have a decent catcher in Ruiz.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison

by JaysfanDL on Dec 7, 2011 9:33 AM EST reply actions

But...

Phillies are getting Gio Gonzalez so they’re still in win-now mode, from their perspective they need to determine if Gio/D’Arnaud is > Hamels/Brown considering Hamels could potentially leave after 2012 and if he stays will command a much higher salary the Gio will get…

by bunner on Dec 7, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions

Do we want Hamels?

He’s a great pitcher, but only 1 more (expensive) year of team control left and will command a hefty extension. So no guarantee that the Jays can keep him. Not sure losing d’Arnaud is worth that, as good as Hamels is.

If we really want him, the Jays can just bid on him after 2012

by SuckaMD on Dec 7, 2011 10:08 AM EST reply actions

though I guess it'd be kind of like signing Fielder

so maybe it would be a good move

by SuckaMD on Dec 7, 2011 10:09 AM EST up reply actions

agreed

no way you trade a top hitting prospect for one expensive year of a pitcher. if the phillies agreed to eat all of hamels salary for this year it would be reasonable, but otherwise no way.

by Jono411 on Dec 7, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

As i mentioned the Jays would need to first work out an extension with Hamels before agreeing to anything

by bunner on Dec 7, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

but unless it's a below market value extension

then it wouldn’t add to his value.

by Jono411 on Dec 7, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

I don´t thin AA´d move d´Arnauld for 1 year of Hamels...

"Touch ´em all, Joe!"

by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 7, 2011 11:37 AM EST reply actions

sorry… i didn´t see that the extension was already mentioned

"Touch ´em all, Joe!"

by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 7, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Even if it was implied that hamels would sign an extension

It shouldn’t increase the quality of the package. 1 year of hamels =! 6 years of d’arnaud

Derp

by Pikachu on Dec 7, 2011 12:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

not really...

Hamels could get traded elsewhere or sign an extension with PHI before hitting free agency thus never being on the open market to bid on. I highly doubt Philly will let him go for nothing…

If the Jays had a chance to sign him to an extension then 6 years of D’Arnaud = 1 year of Hamels + extension

Clearly if it was straight up for 1 year of Hamels I’d never consider trading Travis for him but if it was for an extended period of time it would be worth exploring.

by bunner on Dec 7, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

Unless the Phillies sign him to an extension before putting him on the market, that it is implied that he will need to sign an extension with the new team should not (not “does not” but “should not”) factor in to the value received by the new team. Counting the value of the extension just sacrifices leverage.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loss_aversion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_probability

by Gerse on Dec 7, 2011 1:09 PM EST up reply actions

I could talk myself into it

If, as you say the extension was signed by Hamels. It is a risk that would be worth exploring.

How far off are Jiminez and Perez?

by Rhinos on Dec 7, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

I'd rather have a repeat of last season

By that I mean watching our top prospect absolutely destroy the PCL, and counting the days until he gets called up. I like Arencibia..but the ceiling on these two players isn’t even close.

by ABsteve on Dec 7, 2011 1:42 PM EST reply actions