MLB 2012 Draft Order "Tracker"
by Woodman663 on Dec 7, 2011 10:20 AM EST
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PrintUpdate: please go to Twinkie Town for a correct and updated draft order tracker
The 2012 draft class may be described as weak compared to the 2011 class, but apparently the High School crop is better than last year's. And very deep, too, which means that AA will have plenty of possible high school picks with upside to choose from with those extra draft picks that the last year of Elias Rankings-based compensation brings us.
Note: because of the modified type-A free agents, there is more uncertainty in the draft order than ever. For example, Kelly Johnson signing with the Astros would mean he gets the Jays a second round pick, but if he signs with the Tigers they get a first round pick in front of the Tigers' pick, meaning every pick beyond the 26th has moved down one spot. Because there are 5 of these modified type As remaining (Bell has signed), the current number 26 pick (for example) could be just number 26, but it could also be all the way down to number 31. Only the 1-15 picks and the picks that are compensation for unsigned 2010 picks are locked in place.
I won't list the extra picks caused by modified type As because we don't know where they'll end up, but keep in mind that they're there. A * denotes a compensation pick for an unsigned 2010 pick (btw, these are no longer unprotected in the 2012 draft). Italics mean a player has not yet signed elsewhere, so the pick is not certain, while picks that didn't come to be, due to a player staying with his club, are listed with a strikethrough. Jays picks are in bold, with the variation in possible position in brackets.
-----First Round-----
1. Houston Astros
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Kansas City Royals
6. Chicago Cubs
7. San Diego Padres
8. Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Miami Marlins
10. Colorado Rockies
11. Oakland Athletics
12. New York Mets
13. Chicago White Sox
14. Cincinnati Reds
15. Cleveland Indians
16. Washington Nationals
17. Toronto Blue Jays (17-18)
18. Los Angeles Dodgers
19. Los Angeles Angels
20. San Francisco Giants
21. Atlanta Braves
22. Toronto Blue Jays* (22)
23. St. Louis Cardinals
24. Boston Red Sox
25. Tampa Bay Rays
26. Arizona Diamondbacks
27. Detroit Tigers
28. Milwaukee Brewers
29. Texas Rangers
30. New York Yankees
31. Boston Red Sox (from Phillies)
---compensation round (type A)---
32. St. Louis Cardinals (Pujols)
33. Milwaukee Brewers (Fielder)
34. Texas Rangers (Wilson)
Red Sox (Ortiz)
35. Philadelphia Phillies (Madson)
36. San Diego Padres (Bell)
38. Minnesota Twins (Cuddyer)
39. Oakland Athletics (Willingham)
40. New York Mets (Reyes)Toronto Blue Jays (Johnson) (35-46)
41. Philadelphia Phillies(Rollins)Milwaukee Brewers (Rodriguez)
-----(type B)-----
42. Cincinnati Reds (Hernandez)Minnesota Twins (Capps)
43. Texas Rangers (Oliver)
44. Chicago Cubs (Ramirez)
45. Colorado Rockies (Ellis)
46. St. Louis Cardinals (Dotel)
47. Los Angeles Dodgers (Barajas)
48. Chicago White Sox (Buehrle)
49. Minnesota Twins (Kubel)
50. Toronto Blue Jays (Francisco) (39-56)
51. Philadelphia Phillies (Ibanez)
52. Pittsburgh Pirates (Doumit)Kansas City Royals (Chen)
53. Oakland Athletics (DeJesus)
54. Boston Red Sox (Wheeler)New York Yankees (Garcia)
55. San Diego Padres*
56. San Diego Padres (Harang)
57. Houston Astros (Barmes)
58. Cincinnati Reds (Cordero)
59. Pittsburgh Pirates (Lee)
60. St.Louis Cardinals (Jackson)
61. Toronto Blue Jays (Rauch) (45-65)
62. Chicago Cubs (Pena)
63. Toronto Blue Jays (Molina) (46-67)
-----Second Round-----
64. Houston Astros
65. Minnesota Twins
66. Seattle Mariners
67. Baltimore Orioles
68. Kansas City Royals
69. Chicago Cubs
70. San Diego Padres
71. Pittsburgh Pirates
72. San Diego Padres (Bell)
73. New York Mets (from Marlins)
74. Colorado Rockies
75. Oakland Athletics
76. New York Mets
77. Chicago White Sox
78. Cincinnati Reds
79. Cleveland Indians
80. Washington Nationals
81. Toronto Blue Jays (67-85)
Due to the insane number of compensation round picks, the difference between the Tigers signing Johnson (assuming he doesn't accept arbitration) and, say, the Rockies is astronomical: the ~27th pick or the ~76th pick is a big difference. If a team that has already surrendered one or more picks would sign Johnson the results could be a even worse. Jays fans will be hoping the Tigers sign Johnson and don't sign any other type As more highly rated (by Elias) than Johnson.
I will update this list as signings are made.
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also, one thing i've never understood
I get why teams lose subsequent round picks for signing multiple type As (as in, they don’t lose first rounders in subsequent years). what I don’t get is why the losing team gets punished for it. if a team loses a type A to a team that signed a higher type A, why doesn’t the signing team lose its first and second round picks but the losing team get two sandwich picks?
that would've been logical
too logical for MLB
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That’s the system that was put in place initially – my guess is, it didn’t quite work as intended in terms of the perversities you point out; however, since the MLBPA has always hated the system, it was never something that got opened up because it MLBPA would have wanted other changes and it was easier just to leave it all alone.
Are you sure about the compensation system because I thought that because KJ is a specialized type A he isn’t affected by protected picks
The reason I thought this is because somewhere I think I read that the padres will get the 9th pick in the 2012 draft because bell signed with Miami
I could be wrong and I will have to look into it
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by Bluebirdz on Dec 7, 2011 10:54 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
For the Modified Type A FAs, instad of getting a pick from the signing team, you get a pick in front of what that pick would have been.
The Padres get the 9th pick of the second round, in front of the Marlins. The Marlins’ 1st round pick is protected, so the top pick they lose is their 2nd round pick
Might as enjoy the sandwich buffet while it lasts AA.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 7, 2011 11:03 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Why do we want the Tigers specifically?
Why nothing before that?
by T_Mizz on Dec 7, 2011 11:29 AM EST via mobile reply actions
well perhaps the Dodgers could move in
But I think the Tigers are by far the most likely team to pick him up. I wouldn’t count out the Jays themselves re-signing Johnson.
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Tigers are the most logical fit
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Rockies trade Street
Oh Oh … not good ! Hopefully the Rockies have other FA needs than a 2nd baseman as they just traded Street to the Padres for a MiL player to be named later to free up about $9M for their use. AA needs to send some cash to Detroit for them to sign KJ .
Woodman, kudos for your efforts … the best info on draft projection I’ve seen . Thanks
Kelly Johnson
I’m pretty sure you’ve got him out of order. KJ is the lowest ranked of the Type A and Modified Type As, so he should be behind Reyes, Rollins and Rodriguez.
Yes to all these points
Do we know if the type-A’s are being kept together for compensation-round purposes, or did the CBA send all the modified type-A’s below the true-As?
I haven’t heard anything about it, so I assume the modified type-As will not be below the straight Type-As (status quo prevails).
Now that I think about it, I think you’re right. Another problem is with the modified-A types is alluded to below. Does Heath Bell’s attribution to the 2nd round pick of the Marlins protect that pick from the Mets? Maybe, but that’s pretty dumb.
I’m guessing we end up with fewer sandwich-round picks than last year, when there were 27. I think there are 32 possible right now.
I get the sense the situation is flexible – since this Modified stuff was transitional only, not all the implications were thought through, and I think MLB is going to make adjustments to avoid absurdities (like the Marlins keeping their first and second round picks despite singing 2 or more Type A FAs).
Right now there’s 10 supplemental picks, plus 3 deals not officially signed (Rauch, Francisco, Harang), plus a potential for 21 more. So that’s a ceiling of 34. Also, the Padres have one for not signing a guy last year, but we won’t count that since it cmes out of last year.
Ortiz sounds like he’e going to accept arb so that would be 33.Pujols sounds like he;s leaning Cards, Oliver is likely to stay in Texas, and I’d guess Rollins to stay in Philly. That would be 30, and that’s before any other arb acceptances. I’d guess around 25 supplementals in the end (plus one comp from last year) for a total of 57 picks before th second round, plus any Modified Type A additions in round 1.
No
KJ is the Jays first type A, so he sneaks in front of those teams who already had a type A compensation.
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That can't be the whole answer
I’m not saying the order is incorrect (or correct for that matter) but KJ elias score was 74 while Reyes was 77 (rounded) and the Mets do not have any other type A free agents. So why is the Jays supplemental pick for KJ higher than the Mets for Reyes?
MLBTR's Elias rankings put me off-guard
Reyes was below Johnson for some reason, even though he shouldn’t be. I’ll edit.
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fixed
thanks for keeping me sharp. ;)
I wonder if there’s more mistakes in there..
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Sucks for the Mets, they only get a Supp and a 3rd round pick from losing reyes
and comp round pick is even lower than the Padres. Timing is everything
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Sounds like
The Mets will get Miami’s second round pick for Reyes, which in all honesty makes sense.
Pujols & Dotel signings
St Louis gains LAA’s 19th round selection for their signing of Pujols with no bumping. Does the Dotel signing with Detroit give St Louis the 27th selection bumping the Tigers and everyone below by one and giving the Cards 3 picks in the first 27 selections ?
Pujols & Dotel signings ... pt 2
Are the 2 selections that the Dotel signing brings to the Cards tied in with the 3 PTBN later in the Rasmus trade ?
Good stuff...
I did this too over at TwinkieTown. http://www.twinkietown.com/2011/12/7/2618369/current-mlb-rule-iv-draft-order
Couple of big mistakes in this though; 1) supplemental picks are not awarded based on ranking; they’re ordered by reverse-standing order from the previous year. So if the Twins lose Michael Cuddyer, for example, he’d be the top Type A supplemental pick awarded. This changes your order quite a bit.
2) This year there are two draft lotteries instituted for revenue-sharing/small market teams; 6 picks to be awarded directly after the first round (right before the supplementals) and 6 picks to be awarded directly following the 2nd rd. So that drops everything down 6 slots.
3) Only the top 10 picks in the draft are protected this year, not 15.
Hope that helps!
Also, just wanted to say that I am incredibly jealous that your GM actually values draft picks; you guys, the Rays, and Red Sox have done a masterful job in recent years milking the system; wish my Twins would have the same foresight. This quote is alarming from Terry Ryan the other day:
“I asked Terry how much #Twins consider draft compensation w/ FA decisions: "Not that much. We’ll take it. But we’d rather have the player." "
are you going to update that post
because if you are I’ll probably leave mine for what it is, too many changes to be made. ;)
Thanks for pointing out all the flaws! It’s even more complicated than I thought.
And yeah, we’re very happy to have a GM who actually values draft picks!
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