Jays 'in on' Gio Gonzalez
by Tom Dakers on Dec 7, 2011 6:45 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Rumors
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PrintVery little for rumors today but there was this tweet from Susan Slusser:
#BlueJays in on Gonzalez, two sources tell me.
I'm not sure I'd really want him, unless he was cheap to get. Pitches in a great pitcher's park in the AL West. His career ERA at home is 3.56 but on the road it is 4.32. But then he is only 25 and controllable for a few years. And pitched 200 innings each of the past two. And course, since we've heard about it, odds are Alex won't do it.
What do you think?
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He's been playing in a pitcher friendly park
With a team behind him that had a huge emphasis on defense. Beane would be wise to cash in, and AA foolish if he gave up a lot.
I don’t see the sides matching up.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
The A's asked the Rangers for..
SP Martin Perez, 3B Mike Olt, and Leury Garcia, who according to Sickels are B+, B and Honorable Mention respectably.
Jays B+ prospects according to Sickels are McGuire, Hutchison, Syndergaard, Nicolino, Norris and Marisnick. Our only B prospect is Gose.
So one of the first ones + Gose? Too much for me.
That is far too expensive for my blood
Let someone else take him if that’s the price, and If that is the going rate, i’m sure AA is not in on it
Follow me on Twitter at @AlexDavidson68
agree. gonzalez would be good to have, but not for something like that.
by Justin Azevedo on Dec 7, 2011 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
Take Cahill instead
Cahill would be cheaper in the trade and you have cost certainty as well, and he is another right hander
Thames/ McGuire/ and Hech for Gio
Was thinking this
I think if the jays were in on anyone it would be Cahill or Anderson
by Chris McC on Dec 7, 2011 7:08 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
4.51 career FIP, 4.23 career xFIP
not even 2:1 K:BB last year. Meh
only 23 years old
and posted some dirty K rates in his short time in the minors.
he’s a solid pitcher (>2 WAR last two seasons) with upside if he can get that K rate to the 7.5-8 per 9 range.
I like the upside though. Good sinker and change-up + elite groundball rate. He could be very good if he get his walk rate down a bit since he doesn’t miss a great amount of bats.
The A's will shop him as if he has a great contract
Which he does.
The monster at the end of this blog.
not for a player of his calibre
I get that he’s young, but he’s never had a SIERA under 4.00, in the AL West. Basically a Brett Cecil who can get groundballs.
Derp
He's done great for a kid who barely had any time above A-ball
And had to rediscover his curve at the big league level. He could not improve one bit over the next 4 years and still provide value over the length of his guaranteed contract.
I happen to think he will get better. But, I also agree with you… he’s not great at the moment. I think trading him now is simply trading the contract, with the talent basically being an afterthought.
Bad idea.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Cahill isnt good
I was on the plane last week with an A"s fan, who has been involved in baseball for two decades. His comment the better pitcher is Cahill.
So where do you get off making that statement without justification. i am interested in hearing your logic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_authority#Forms
If you’re going to be needlessly aggressive in your wording, make your argument robust.
I wouldn't say its bogus
Given the fact that Anthopolous checks “in on” every available player. Interest to the point where he’d be willing to give up what Billy Beane wants? That’s probably 100% false, yeah
same thing =P. all these rumours are getting tiresome
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 7, 2011 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
I like him, but not worth it
Would probably take too many prospects.
I read Phillies wanted to give up Dominic Brown for Gio..
Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t that mean we’d have to give up a lot of our top talent then?
Apparently
the Jays are ‘in’ on Niese as well. Much more of an AA target (buy low), but I doubt the credibility of the rumor.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
From Joel Sherman
#Bluejays r other team joining #Redsox #Padres #Rockies pushing hardest for Niese #Mets
by Chris McC on Dec 7, 2011 7:21 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Why is the credibility in doubt
Why is Sherman a bad source
by Chris McC on Dec 7, 2011 7:25 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
some at MLB trade rumours
do believe he makes up things. It is a bit suspicious that he first said the Mets were listening on Ike Davis and then suddenly it was Niese.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
I like Niese way more than Gonzalez
He’ll cost way less. What do you think it would take to get him? Apparently the NY is interested in a catcher, an infielder, and prospects. Maybe Perez and a pitcher? Or even KJ if he accepts arbitration?
I'd go for Gio for the right price.
He’s under club control, has a nasty curve ball, and is only 25. Definitely.
by Marcos Montenegro on Dec 7, 2011 7:16 PM EST reply actions
Depends on BB is asking for from AA
The A’s want a CF.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 7, 2011 7:43 PM EST reply actions
I'd do
Gose for Gonzalez straight up, but not much more.
Blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays at Bluebird Banter
Why would the A's part with Gio cheaply?
Hi. I’m new around here. I created an account ’cause I had a hunch this topic was going to come up.
Here’s an argument I made on AN about trading Gio Gonzalez…
Less than a year ago the Rays traded Matt Garza to the Chicago Cubs along with two non-prospects (Zach Rosscrop and Fernando Perez) for Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, Sam Fuld and Brandon Guyer.
Or, to put it another way… (BA Cubs Rank/Sickels Grade)
Archer (1/B+)
Lee (4/B)
Guyer (10/B-)
Chirinos (16/C+)
Fuld (NR/NR)
Gio Gonzalez is almost 2 years younger than Garza, has 4 years of team control (vs. the 3 Garza had at the time of the deal) is cheaper and has out-performed Garza according to bWAR ( 9.2 vs. 5.8) and fWAR ( 6.7 vs. 4.7) over the last 2 years vs. Garza’s last 2 seasons in Tampa.
I didn’t come here to start a fight about why the Blue Jays need to trade for Gio Gonzalez. Personally I think he’s more a luxury purchase than an actual necessity for Toronto.
But my question remains, why would anyone think they’d get him on the cheap?
The monster at the end of this blog.
err
aren’t his numbers against AL East opponents atrocious? I also heard he has really terrible career numbers at the Rogers Centre but am far too lazy to research that tidbit out…
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Dec 7, 2011 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
He can't get a strike called against the Yankees
Then again, who does?
He’s had 12 GS vs. Tampa, NY and Boston. Combined. That’s an absurdly small sample to judge in comparison to the rest of his work.
But yeah, he’s struggled when going against the AL East.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Forget the AL East
He’s mediocre everywhere outside of Oakland. He’s like Heath Bell in the sense that his value is driven up by the park he pitches in
yes
agreed. do you like any of Oakland’s pitchers or are they all skewed by the park factor? I wonder about Niese rather than Gio or Cahill…
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Dec 7, 2011 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
I think the Jays have been linked to all of them at some point
We’re going after none of them. That seems to be AA’s M.O. No one took Atlanta’s bait on Jurrjens earlier so maybe we can buy low with Thames + other prospects? Again, I’m putting my emphasis on buying low giving his durability issues
Really?
Yep
The biggest difference is a higher batting average.
That said, I’m not terribly impressed by the underlying peripherals. He’s a good midrotation starter (2-3) on a good team, and I don’t think I’d give a Garza like return for that (I think the Cubs gave up too much for Garza, it’s not that I think much less/more of Gonzalez)
Fair 'nuff
I think Kenny Williams should have gotten more for Santos.
Maybe there’s something in Chicago’s water?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Well
In Blue Jay land we’ve had it in for Kenny Williams since the beginning when he dumped Mike Sirotka on us in the David Wells deal and Sirtoka had a shoulder injury (wrecked labrum) and never pitched an inning for us.
So the more we fleece him, the better.
Here are Gio's numbers pitching @ various stadium (SSS)
BAL-Camden Yards 1 1 .500 2.79 3 3
BOS-Fenway Pk 1 0 1.000 5.63 3 3
NYY-Yankee Stad3 1 1 .500 5.56 2 2
TBR-TropicanaFld 0 0 0.000 9.64 2 0
TOR-Rogers Ctr 1 2 .333 5.09 3 3
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 7, 2011 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
I couldn't get everything. It's just W-L, ERA G and GS
It’s very small SSS. Less than 20IP per stadium.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 7, 2011 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
For all that's said about the Oakland factor
His career splits are as follow:
Home: .232/.324/.358
Away: .251/.340.387
A few more HR at home, slightly higher K rate on the road, same BB rate, slightly higher K rate at home. The ERAs are vastly different, but based on the underlying numbers, I can’t see a real reason for the size of the difference. Basically, Oakland suppresses some hits (big foul territory), which bumps up the OBP and the SLG in proportion t his ISO
I don't. I figure BB can dangle his surplus pitchers around and wait for the best deal
Taking a look at the AL East only. The only team in the AL East that doesn’t need pitching is Tampa Bay.
Baltimore has nothing worth trading for outside of Machado and Bundy (and like Dan Duquette is going to trade the only two worthwhile prospects in his system.)
Seriously? Alex A. Billy Bean. Dan Duquette. It’s as if Stan Lee hired them.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 7, 2011 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
If only Zarley Zalapski was a baseball manager.
by Defense Counts! on Dec 7, 2011 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
Gio's road era 1st full 2 seasons
2011- 3.60
2010- 3.90
not alarmingly bad
The problem is
Oakland is looking for value greater than what he is right now – a “decent” on the road pitcher. I see the upside, he’s an inning eater, high strikeout guy. Young and controllable. But people think the price is too high. You almost have to look at his away stats as the main measuring stick since that’s what he did everywhere outside of Oakland. When you consider that he’s really underwhelming, at least in my opinion
Gio update
I ran a list of the Blue Jays’ top-rated prospects by one source – Oakland wants at least two of a team’s top four prospects for Gonzalez, plus some middle-level minor-leaguers – and I was told that Toronto has even better players in the lower minors that might be Oakland targets. The A’s aren’t looking for immediate help in any deal this winter, they’re looking for top talent that would be ready for a potential new stadium in three years. That could include players who are in the lower levels of the minors, now.
I think the other 11 teams I’m told are in the Gonzalez hunt will be nervous about Toronto’s interest. The Blue Jays have the wherewithal to make something happen because of their minor-league depth.
links don't work in titles
http://blog.sfgate.com/athletics/2011/12/07/toront o-jumps-into-gio-gonzalez-talks-with-as/
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 7, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
I think this is Beane's actual plan
I don’t think Gio puts Toronto over the top in the AL East. But this loaded farm system will help other teams loosen up the prospect purse strings, as it were.
The monster at the end of this blog.
That seems to be the general trend this offseason
Mentioning the Jays being in the race simply to drive up the stock price, be it prospect depth or deep (apparent) pockets.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
they can keep him.
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 7, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
And they probably will
Unless, of course, Toronto’s interest can spook the Yankees into agreeing to a Montero/Banuelos deal.
On another topic, what are the Blue Jays going to do about 1B and DH?
The monster at the end of this blog.
Fielder
or Lind/EE 1b
Lind/EE/Thames/Snider DH
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 7, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
we have a lot of potential bench players don't we...
Davis/Thames/McCoy/Mathis/Cooper
ahhhhhhhhhh
Rent this for cheap!!
by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 7, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
No, Pikachu is obsessed with him...
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Dec 7, 2011 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
Ummmm why?
Hes an average 1st baseman, Linds probably better than him
by Chris McC on Dec 7, 2011 10:42 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Barton's not getting non-tendered
Based on the roster right now, Bartion starts at 1B. Allen to LF. Carter to DH.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Mildly surprised by this
Barton career 105 wRC+, Thames 108 (one season of course). Barton age 26, Thames 25. Thames a bad LF, Barton a good 1B…figure the positional difference of 5 runs is mitigated by the defense, call it a wash at worst. Seems similar type value, Thames could have some offensive upside and has more control, but given your love of Barton and the fact you are high on him, I thought you might be enticed
thames is under control for 5 (6?) years for cheap
I really like Barton, but Thames would be an overpay
Derp
I personally think you’re overvaluing Thames…pretty big time.
Also, it is 6 years of control, but right now there’s a good chance he’s a Super Two which mitigates some of the value from that extra year
Right
No I agree there’s value, it’s just how much. Let’s just assume he’s a league average hitter (no improvement, but we also won’t factor injuries in which given his history there should be some accounting fro – so we’ll net that off). That’s say 2.5WAR in a full time role, take away 7.5 runs positional and -2.5 defense/baserunning. So 1.5WAR true talent. Over six years, that’s 9WAR. Let’s say $5M/WAR in open market years, so $45MM total. Now, we pay him $1M over the next two years, then he hits arb as a Super Two. Let’s assume 40/55/70/85 across the arb years compared to market value. So you pay 2.5 years at market value (2.5Y x 1.5WAR/year x $5M/WAR market = 18.75), plus $1M for a total of about $20M in cost. That would be $25M in surplus value, and that to me is a best case scenario.
That also assumes that some of the prospect guys (Law in particular) who see him as a 4th OF are wrong. Also, no injuries, and full playing time, which is an aggressive assumption.
tl;dr (it's late and I'm tired)
I think marking him down for 1.5 WAR for every season is being optimistic. $25M in surplus seems like way to much.
Derp
I don't know...
You’ve only got 16 B- or better guys left in your farm system.
(Congrats on that, by the way.)
The monster at the end of this blog.
2 of the top 4 prospects?
Yea… I don’t think so.
Sounds like Beane trying to shake another team on a sell high option.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
interesting tidbit
the Fan Projections over at FG marks down Brett Lawrie for a triple slash of .287/.356/.518, wOBA of .382, Fld of 4.0, over 624 PAs, which makes him worth … 6.4 fWAR
Derp
Little optimistic to me. I’ll be happy if he’s 3 WAR, anything above is great. The power in particular seems to high to me
I could see him having a "rookie" year
comparable to Longo’s. minus some defense, plus some Bsr, plus a little hitting? could happen. Longoria isn’t that super amazing of a hitter
feels like you're underrating his (longo's) defense
never had a Fld or ADR under 10 (though the ADR for 2011 could be under 10, still ridiculous). He’s a crazy good fielder.
Derp
i mean as a defender
arguing semantics here, really, but you said you’d minus “some” defense. More like 1 full win worth
Derp
20th best wRC+ in MLB from 2008-11
I don’t know exactly what super amazing is, but that’s pretty darn good for a guy who adds a lot of value in other places
it's really really good
but it’s not, like, Ryan Braun. I dunno. it’s great but not “best hitter evar”
Braun is career 149 wRC+
And that includes this past year, which was 179. If you compare Braun’s first 4 years with Longo’s, the offense isn’t that disimilar…Braun probably around 145 wRC+
Jesse Carlson looks to be taking his Yankee baiting ways to Boston.
From mlbtraderumors
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 8, 2011 12:01 AM EST reply actions
Hidden in this post
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/red-sox-increase-two-year-offer-to-ortiz.html
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Dec 8, 2011 1:49 AM EST up reply actions
Does that net us a pick if he signs?
I can’t remember his situation
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
No
He was not free agent eligible at the Major LEague, he was outrighted off the 40 man and elected free agency rather than accepting an assignment to Triple A
We would have Gio until 2015.
That is worth 2 great prospects and a third decent one. We could replace that in time.
"That is worth 2 great prospects and a third decent one"
For Gio? No thanks.
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