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Introducing your 2012 Toronto Blue Jays!

With Kelly Johnson accepting arbitration that pretty well solidifies all our starting positions going into next year. Barring any shocking trades or signings, our lineup is pretty straight forward heading into next season, so lets take a look at it shall we!

Star-divide

BATTING ORDER:

SS - Yunel Escobar - R

2B - Kelly Johnson - L
RF - Jose Bautista - R
1B - Adam Lind - L
DH - Edwin Encarnacion - R
3B - Brett Lawrie - R
CB - Colby Rasmus - L
LF - Travis Snider / Eric Thames - L
C - J.P. Arencibia - R

BENCH:

OF - Rajai Davis - R

C - Jeff Mathis - R
2B/SS/3B - Luis Valbuena - L

RF/3B/1B - Mark Teahen - L

LF/RF - Travis Snider / Eric Thames - L

OF/SS/2B - Mike McCoy - R

May not really look like much change from last season. But the addition of Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, and Kelly Johnson for a full year should be a big improvement at all 3 positions.

The biggest question marks going into this season:

- Is Travis Snider or Eric Thames the starting LF? The other may be sent back down to the minors for some more seasoning, but it seems these 2 will duke it out during spring training for the starting job.

- After recovering from injuries, and learning how to better prepare for a full season at 1B, can Adam Lind return to his 2009 silver slugger form, we did see some brief flashes of it during the 2011 season.

- Can Edwin Encarnacion put together a full season showing the skillset that he brought to the table in the latter part of the 2011 season & parts of 2010. Or will he always be too streaky a player to keep in your everyday lineup & in a very valuable DH spot in the American League.

- Can Colby Rasmus return to the 2010 form that had all the critics raving about this youngster, only to see a terrible 2011 season. Heres hoping a new team & the fresh start will help see him show some of the life that made him such a highly touted youngster in the majors.

- Clearly the bench listed above is too big, so at least 1-2 players you see there will not be on the 2012 starting roster. The most likely cuts would be Mike McCoy, possibly whoever doesn't start in LF between Travis Snider & Eric Thames, and possibly Mark Teahen.

There are still questions about the starting rotation, the bullpen, and the many prospects in the jays system that will be pushing for a job in 2012, but this is most likely the scenario as your starting lineup in 2012 (pitchers not included, obviously)

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someone from the bench has to go

for mathis…

All for dropping Teahen? say I !

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 8, 2011 12:43 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

also, Fixed

OF/SS/2B OF/SS/2B/P – Mike Mccoy – R

Rent this for cheap!!

by Bowling_Guy25 on Dec 8, 2011 12:45 AM EST up reply actions  

There's no way we carry 15 position players

At least 1, possibly 2 go…Thames/Snider, the loser of that job plays everyday in Las Vegas. Kinda redundant to have Valbuena and McCoy

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 1:01 AM EST reply actions  

At least 2 if not 3 have to go

I can see a scenario where both Thames and Snider stay with the club, Thames can platoon with EE in the dh position. You are correct that Valbuena and McCoy are redundant and one of them will be bound for Vegas, and should keep their Air Miles card handy.

By the end of spring training I expect to see a DFA next to Teahan’s name.

by Al Bundy is my hero on Dec 8, 2011 7:24 AM EST up reply actions  

I think his point is that...

Yeah you could use the loser in a platoon situation but at this point with these young players it may be more beneficial for them to play everyday in Vegas than sit out half the games in the majors. Plus, that sure would be one sweet lineup down in Vegas.
C d’Arnaud
1B McDade
SS Hechavarria
LF Thames
CF Gose
DH Cooper
RF Mastroianni
Doesn’t really matter who you slot into 2B or 3B, it’s still an exciting lineup.

by T_Mizz on Dec 8, 2011 8:07 AM EST up reply actions  

agreed

i just left them in there for the sake of competition, we can’t be sure which of them will be leaving, but i’d agree at least 2 will not be with the club

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Thames / Snider

Actually, I kinda agree., subject to what happens this offseason. Right now you’re got 4 players (Lind/EE/Snider/Thames) and 3 position (LF/DH/1B). The problem is, three ofthese guys are lefties, and in this type of scenario you’d want to platoon Land and EE which means the other two are alwas playing against lefties, and sitting some against righties potentially. If one of THames and SNider were a righty, this would make more sense.

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 9:31 AM EST up reply actions  

not sure i follow...

i think its pretty straight forward, pretty sure theres no way they would or even can send lind/EE to the minors. and snider/thames can be sent to minors, are young, and are competing for the same position, so one of them will be put on the bench or sent down to AAA again

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I meant I agree there’s a scenario where both Thames and Snider stay with the big club (along with EE and Lind)..you rotate all three across 4 positions, everyone plays about 120 games, Lind sits against lefties since he can’t hit them. The thing is, 3 are lefties, so you can’t maximize the platoon advantage…if one of Thames/Snider was a righties, you’d have 2R, 2L, and it would be much more advantageous

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

agreed

could definitely work, and i think if the jays are in the thick of it you’ll definitely see that. but to start the season i’d bet they send the person not starting in LF down to the minors to maximize their at bats. But ya never know

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

I think if its Thames starting in LF, Snider gets sent down, but not the reverse… If Snider claims the job and keeps it through May – bye bye Thames.

by Dr_Furious on Dec 8, 2011 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

you mean..

instead of moving thames to AAA they would release or trade him? I’m sure jays are going to entertain trading either one of them now/upcoming year regardless, but i wouldn’t just say they give up on thames if snider wins the gig, thames can still be a good backup OF & platoon DH and is young, so yes, he could get traded

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

yip

would love to see him cut, but thats a massive amount of salary to pay off. they’ll probably give him at least a couple of months to see if he can build up any sort of trade value or at least have some value on the bench before paying him off to leave.

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Nah, they won’t cut him. Not unless they absolutely have to, I imagine they’ll keep him on the bench for a while and then trade him and cash for a lesser amount of cash (See: Rivera, Juan).

by Parallex on Dec 8, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions  

Rivera was DFA’d before he was traded and did next to nothing as a Jay.

by Al Bundy is my hero on Dec 8, 2011 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

To be fair....

He did have one good at-bat. That 9(or so) pitch one against the ChiSox during the 14 inning game. With the bases-clearing double, I’m pretty sure that was all though.

by EasyD on Dec 8, 2011 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

lol

its even worse considering how much time he played, that your able to recall 1 at bat hahaha

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 9:05 PM EST up reply actions  

only cause i was there....

And the 100 level fans actually stood up during the at-bat. I was shocked.

by EasyD on Dec 8, 2011 9:24 PM EST up reply actions  

lol

Thanks Gerse, been a crazy hectic 6 weeks or so. Still enjoying the discussions here, just so brain-dead after work that I can’t muster up anything worthwhile to contribute. So SNAFU.

by EasyD on Dec 11, 2011 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd be pretty confident in saying that the pitchers would be as follows

Romero
Morrow
Alvarez
Drabek
Mcgowan
Cecil
Villanueva
Litsch
Perez
Carreno
Janssen
Santos
About as confident as I am in that lineup.

by T_Mizz on Dec 8, 2011 6:38 AM EST reply actions  

i would slot mcgowan & cecil ahead of drabek

mcgowan is out of options, and cecil i feel they want to give another run at things. But i really think cecil/drabek will be in competition in training camp.

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:11 AM EST up reply actions  

I have doubts McGowan will really be a starter

I mean, I think he could start, but I don’t think he’ll be close to good as he was before the injuries. I see him as a worse option than Cecil or Drabek

Derp

by Pikachu on Dec 8, 2011 8:14 AM EST up reply actions  

i think its an unknown what he can do

but i believe he will be in the starting rotation opening day, and is more of a lock then both cecil & drabek. mostly because of the fact that he is out of options, they have to put him on the squad opening day, and they want to put him in the rotation for his health. If its not working then they may get rid of him or move him to the bullpen, but opening day i’d say hes a lock along with romero, morrow, and alvarez barring an extremely disappointing preseason

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:19 AM EST up reply actions  

I've heard that about his health

That knowing he’ll pitch every 5th day and the preparation and continuity that follows with that is better than having to warm up in a hurry and go out and throw 110-120% of what you’d throw (in terms of effort/pitch) as a starter.

by T_Mizz on Dec 8, 2011 8:37 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah

not sure if i believe it, but thats what the jays are saying so… we’ll go with it until he fails in the rotation, then hopefully they try him in relief.

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 9:01 AM EST up reply actions  

oh haha

but I liked the order, just that 1 little tidbit, the rest looks great right through until the end too.

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:32 AM EST up reply actions  

lol nope you got it right

villanueva as the long reliever. Then you got bullpen priority as it could be used in games ending with janssen as the setup man & santos closing it out. and i like correno being down the list, cause he looked very good last year & would like to see him giving the opportunity in a pivitol roll for the jays next year in the BP

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 9:03 AM EST up reply actions  

would it be nice!

drabek & cecil can duke it out in the minors or be part of the bullpen

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

edited lineup

to more realistic reflect opening day, im sure they’ll likely go with the bautista/lind/encarnacion/lawrie in the 3,4,5,6. i gave johnson the edge for the #2 spot to take the pressure off of rasmus. and the hopes are obviously all all our young players do great & begin to push their way further up the lineup

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:14 AM EST reply actions  

I´d like them to gamble and go for
3) Lawrie
4) Jedi
5) Lind

"Touch ´em all, Joe!"

by jaysfanfromeurope on Dec 8, 2011 1:23 PM EST reply actions  

actually thats how i listed it originally

just changed it because we know farrell well enough to know he likely won’t do that, and i posted what i think is the most realistic opening day lineup

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree that Farrell won't use the optimal lineup

I’m sort of thinking it might shake down like this:

SS – Yunel Escobar – R
2B – Kelly Johnson – L
RF – Jose Bautista – R
CB – Colby Rasmus – L
3B – Brett Lawrie – R
LF – Travis Snider / Eric Thames – L
DH – Edwin Encarnacion – R
1B – Adam Lind – L
C – J.P. Arencibia – R

But I wouldn’t argue too much about swapping any of the lefties around.

I put Johnson 2nd because he has decent OBP to supplement Yunel and increase the chance that someone is on base before the Jedi.

I anguished but I put Rasmus 4th as being the best of a bunch of question marks in terms of lefties. It also marks the beginning of the speed part of the order, such as it is.

Snider/Thames i put as 6th to cap the end of the speed part before you get to the slower runners again.

I put Lind 8th only because if he hits in front of JP, his relatively slow pace won’t play a role. JP will either K or homer and in both cases, it’s just a jog for Lind.

I’m prepared for ridicule.

by siggian on Dec 8, 2011 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

i just think that dropping lind down that far off the start of the season is showing a lack of confidence in lind

and the jays want to show a lot of confidence in him as they’ve done all offseason long, and also to try and build confidence in rasmus, i just down see how rasmus/lawrie move ahead of encarnacion unless they have great spring trainings and the older guys don’t do very well

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

if i were to pick my optimal lineup it would be:

escobar
snider
lawrie
bautista
lind
encarnacion
rasmus
johnson
arencibia

but its going to take a long while for the coach to build up some of that trust to have rasmus/lawrie 3 & 4, and move snider back up the lineup.

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

KJ not batting 2nd in favor of Snider?

KJ posted the 4th highest OBP on the team while struggling with the bat last year. In a good year he easily falls behind Escobar and Bautista in that category.

Lawrie batting 3rd is also questionable after a short but successful rookie season.

Overall I agree with you in the first spot and the last spot in the lineup. Everything in between I’d do different.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 8, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd go

Escobar
Lawrie
Johnson (or Lind, if he boucnes back)
Bautista
Rasmus (or Snider)
E5
Lind (or Johnson)
Snider (or Rasmus)
JPA

Want to get a top hitter in that 2 spot – and to me that’s Lawrie right now.

by SuckaMD on Dec 8, 2011 5:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd also prefer to have E5 in the 5th spot

but then we’d have 3 straight lefties, so I did a bit of a juggle

by SuckaMD on Dec 8, 2011 5:18 PM EST up reply actions  

I still think its crazy to expect that much from Lawrie

I would never put a rookie* (not technically but he is) in the top 3, no matter how good he was. I think putting him lower in the order will benefit him and the team, less pressure to perform. I am Eric Thames biggest fan (ask anybody) but still I disagreed with him batting 2nd. Also why is nobody liking Bautista getting up in the first inning?

My lineup would be:

Escobar
KJ
Bautista
E5
Snider
Lawrie
Rasmus
JPA
Cooper

by Mike Andrew on Dec 8, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think Thames has any hope if his biggest fan doesnt have him starting :P

It will definitely be interesting watching the Thames Snider battle in spring training. Though I wonder what kind of strain that puts on any kind of friendship the two have?

by KWJAYS on Dec 8, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Benk finially convinced me Thames shouldn't be starting

I look so forward to spring training I can’t even tell you.

I think they will both be professional about it.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 8, 2011 8:23 PM EST up reply actions  

for 2 youngsters

they are very professional, couldn’t agree with you more. most teams this may not go so well, but thames/snider can duke it out for that spot & be best of friends while doing it, they are both great loveable guys because of that type of attitude, everyone wants them both to succeed big time.

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

if a kid can hit

let him hit. And let him get as many opportunities to do it as he can get.

I want my best hitters at the top of the order (1,2, and 4). If a rookie is one of those guys, then let him at it. And why does pressure only affect rookies? Older guys often playing for arbitration awards or free agent contracts – a bad performance could cost them millions in earnings.

Rookies are on the reserve clause – they make the same regardless so they can just focus on going out there and playing. And they have faced tremendous pressure their whole careers – there’s great pressure in the minors to perform and earn promotions to get a shot at The Show.

by SuckaMD on Dec 8, 2011 7:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Personally

I don’t see Lawrie maintaining a .950 OPS. I think he will come back down to earth this year and everybody will be grossly disappointed. I elect we start him later in the lineup so he doesn’t have to face the pressure of hitting 2nd every night and let him focus on getting past the rookie wall he will hit.

I agree he had to face a lot of adversity and everything to make it to the show, but still we should cut him a break this year.

I still don’t understand why you have Bautista 4th?

by Mike Andrew on Dec 8, 2011 8:21 PM EST up reply actions  

lineup optimization says

based on a balance of opportunities with runners on base and maximizing plate appearances, your best hitters go in the 1st, 2nd and 4th lineup spots, followed by your next best hitters in the 5th and then 3rd spots. the 3rd hitter faces the most 2 out, nobody on base situations out of anyone on the team – the worst possible situation for a hitter. the 4th hitter gets to either lead off the 2nd inning or hit with a runner on base, and the 1st and 2nd hitters get to set the table.

of course this isn’t close to rigorous statistical analysis, but there’s an anecdote about Cap Anson that’s pretty funny. he played before managers were required to submit their lineup to the umpire before the game started. if any of the first two hitters got on base, he would hit third. otherwise, he’d hit fourth and lead off the game.

here’s a good, concise writeup about lineup optimization from BtB

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Line-up optimization

Suggests your best hitter should hit 4th to generate the most offense. See Tom Tango et al., The Book, chapter 5.

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 8:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Or just read benk above

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 8:38 PM EST up reply actions  

BtB actually says

2nd and 4th are equally important once the increased PA for the 2nd hitter is taken into account. the 2nd hitter should have the higher OBA and the 4th hitter should have more power. I’d love to see Bautista hit 2nd.

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 8:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, Bautista is both the best power, and the best OBP. I’d be fine with him 2nd, but my biggest concern is getting someone behind him so he’s not pitched around so often, especially with runners on.

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

that would be fine

I’d love to see a guy on first every single first inning

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure

But that’s a bit simplistic…I don’t have the data behind this, but it was pretty clear to me anecdotally that Bautista expanded his zone in the second half (vs. second half 2010 and first half 2011), partly I think out of frustration about not getting many pitches to hit.

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I would kill to have this lineup

Escobar
Bautista
Rasmus
Lawrie
Johnson
Encarnacion
Lind
Arencibia
Snider

Derp

by Pikachu on Dec 8, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I like that

I think I see E5 as a slightly better hitter than Johnson and so would flip them around in an ideal situation, but I like the RLRLRLR thing you have going. The same consideration goes into Snider and Arencbia

by SuckaMD on Dec 10, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Also

I don’t buy the whole pressure thing. I do expect regression, because (1) he started out so great and (2) the league will adjust, at which point he’ll have to readjust. But if he’s one of the 3 or 4 best hitters, put him right up top

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 8:51 PM EST up reply actions  

yes, it's likely that Brett Lawrie at 21

is not a true talent 11 WAR player. but it’s far more encouraging that he dominated the Majors in a small sample than if he struggled. it’s improbable, but I wouldn’t be horribly surprised if Lawrie puts up 6 WAR in 2010. I think 4-5 is more likely, but it could happen.

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

If Lawrie put up 6 WAR in 2011, I’d be very surprised by not horribly so :p. In all seriousness, in my mind, it’s 3 WAR, the rest is gravy. But I hate to be disappointed, so I set my expectations low.

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

heh

it’s kind of fun to have a “rookie” whose low-end projection is 3 WAR, no?

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm just saying rookies can drop off if they have insane numbers

As can any player. Lawrie played above himself which is great but to say he has a floor of 3 WAR in his 2nd MLB season isn’t reasonable in my opinion.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 8, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

fair

but if healthy, I can’t really see him being worse than an average MLB hitter based on 2010 and 2011 (particularly with his speed), and he should be average in the field at worst. with a couple runs above average baserunning and positional adjustments, he’d be worth about 2.5 WAR. I mean, if there are injuries or crazily unforeseen ineffectiveness, he could be worse. but I’d say average MLBer is around his 25th percentile projection. it’s not super likely.

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I see Lawrie having

A two WAR season next season, which is good. I just don’t think he will post a good OBP% because hes naturally more of a slugger, thus I won’t bat him 2nd.

I just don’t think people should put unrealistic expectations on Lawrie.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 8, 2011 9:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Give what he did in 2011

2 WAR is pretty low. It wouldnt be the end of the world, but it’s not unrealistic to see him as above average or better in 2012, which is 2.5 WAR+ in a full season.

Let me ask you…who do you see having a better offesnive season next year…Cooper or Lawrie?

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 9:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Maicer Izturis was 2 WAR in 2011 in about 500 PA

he had a .334 OBA and a .388 SLG (.318 wOBA). Alberto Callaspo was 3.6 WAR with a .330 wOBA in 30 more PA than Izturis, with 7 runs fielding. I’d be pretty surprised if Lawrie posts less than a, say, .345 wOBA in 2012 given what we saw in 2011 (7th highest wRC of any MLBer with over 100 PA)

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 10:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I just don’t think people should put unrealistic expectations on Lawrie.

A 2 WAR season is an unrealistic expectation barring injury.

by gabrielsyme on Dec 9, 2011 4:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think the floors is 3 WAR

It’s obviously, as you say, lower.

That said, it’ll be a disappointment for me if he’s below that significantly, as was Heyward’s year. Most people would actuallybe pretty disappointed if he was only 3 WAR.

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Indeed

2012 will be fun, regardless of contention etc….everytime I get a little down about a long winter of no baseball, I watch this, and get pumped up

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 9:05 PM EST up reply actions  

speaking of getting pumped

I’ve never been so pumped as I was this offseason when the Jays released their new logo/uni’s & they released a video on it. When lawrie said “when you get a new look it can really turn some heads, and ya know, i just really think that next years going to be our year”. That just set me off, im like YEAH, YEAH IT IS! hahaha That vid got me right pumped in offseason mode.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19997845&topic_id=8877962&c_id=tor

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Definitely some slick promotion/marketing. Can’t wait until opening day….only 119 days (darn leap year adds another)

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 9:15 PM EST up reply actions  

i refuse to believe lawrie will regress too much

im being the biggest homer ever when it comes to lawrie, he just shows way to much skills, not just here, but throughout his entire minor league career, to regress too much. Until he shows me reasons to doubt, i refuse to doubt lol I expect nothing short of all star game & future HOF talks hahahaha

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions  

the reason i think lawrie could/should go 3

is because of power. somebody who has that kind of power you don’t wanna waste in a 2 spot, you want him in the 3/4/5 spot so theres more opportunity to get people ahead of him. and the reason i’d put bautista 4th is only because i’d expect one of escobar/johnson or rasmus/lawrie to get on, if thats not a realistic expectation then I don’t think we can put lawrie 3, and i’d move him down so your not wasting power at the 2 spot. But i can see the theory, i do wanna see him get as many bats as possible

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

but you aren't wasting his power at number 2

since he’s batting behind what should be your top OBA guy who is leading off. Bat him second and you let him try to drive in Escobar every time Yunel gets on base. His power would be extremely useful in that situation, especially since Escobar isn`t a great base stealer and so needs a power guy to drive him home.

Batting Lawrie 3rd and putting an inferior hitter in the #2 slot allows the worse hitter to GIDP, eliminating some of the usefulness of Escobar`s team-leading OBA.

We know that the number 3 hitter faces the highest number of none-on, 2 out situations on the team. You don’t want one of your top 2 hitters (as I think Lawrie will be – it’s fine to argue that you don’t think he’ll be as good as I do) coming up in those situations. You want him in a situations where he is likely to come up with guys on base (i.e. the #2 slot hitting behind the team’s best OBA guy) to take advantage of power or with none out (i.e. #4, where he can lead off the second inning in many games) to take advantage of OBA AND power, since if any of the #1,2,3 guys get on, the #4 hitter comes up in the first inning.

Since Bautista is such a great power and OBA guy, Id like him 4th, since that spot takes advantage of both skillz. Lawrie I want 3rd, to keep his valuable bat out of none-on, 2 out situations and in more situations with runners on or fewer than 2 outs.

by SuckaMD on Dec 10, 2011 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

your looking at things extremely pessimistically

if you think the #2 guy is going to gidb a lot, then clearly we don’t have the right guy in the 2 spot. your also looking at things extremely pessimistically if you think the #3 guy is more likely to come up with less people on then the #2 guy lol, thats just not logic, 2 guys in front of a person compared to 1 guy means a higher chance of people on base. Just cause Escobar has one of our highest obp rates, doesnt mean we shouldnt put our next highest behind him, then guys with power to drive them home, 2 is better then 1.

And escobar isn’t going to reach base more than 60% of the time, putting a guy behind him that can reach base at .370 or better so you have a better chance of having guys on for your players who can drive them in.

by TheMainEvent on Dec 10, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

its not logic based

its evidence based. We (by which I mean people who are smarter than you and me and actually pore through the data to find out the truth) know that the #3 hitter comes up more often than any other spot with none on and 2 outs. Its not a question of logic, its a question of what baseball history shows actually happens.

And I agree that if we have a guy who hits into DPs a lot in the #2 spot, then we have a bad player hitting #2. Thats why I advocate putting our 2nd best hitter (who I think will be Lawrie) in that spot. Anyone else we put in that spot (aside from Bautista, who Id be fine with at 2, but Id prefer at 4) would be more likely to GIDP than Lawrie. This is one of the reasons you want one of your top hitters at #2, another being that you can take advantage both of his power (since hes hitting with men on base a lot by hitting behind the best OBA guy) and his own OBA skills by minimizing the proportion of the time that Lawrie gets on base with 2 outs (you want him on base with 0 or 1 out so that the hitters behind him have more chances to drive him in).

Basically, you want to get your best hitters up as often as possible both with men on base and with fewer than 2 outs to maximize their OBA and SLG abilities. Batting them 2nd and 4th does this best, according to evidence gathered through the history of baseball.

by SuckaMD on Dec 10, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

in my dream world

snider figures it out in 2012, and a snider that figures it out i like more then kj & put at #2

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I did my lineup based on two things

Farrell not completely using the optimal lineup
Switching back and forth between left and right-handed batters

I think Lawrie is the second best hitter on this team even though he’s only played a month or so at MLB level. His bat looks so fast and dangerous. Ultimately, I think he ends up batting 2nd, but not this year

by siggian on Dec 9, 2011 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

It says hes a rookie?

We don’t know whether to expect 50 doubles and a .350ish average.

We have a year to experiment, he can’t be worse than Lind was last year.

by Mike Andrew on Dec 8, 2011 8:22 PM EST up reply actions  

We don’t know whether to expect 50 doubles and a .350ish average

The heck we don’t. The odds are something like 100-1 against or worse. I mean, Albert Pujols had one of, if not the greatest rookie seasons ever, and he “only” had 47 and .329 (slacker I tell you).

We have a year to experiment, he can’t be worse than Lind was last year

I assume the experimenting means you don’t expect them to contend, and I basically agree with that. But I also don’t want to punt anything. Lind has certainly been frustrating, but if he’s healthy and they finally platoon him, he’s definitiely the best current option at 1B against righties, Cooper included

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 8:43 PM EST up reply actions  

if his 2011 was poor because of a low BABIP

he’ll be at least an acceptable (2-2.5 WAR) 1B. could be better.

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, it wasn’t just a bad BABIP, though he certainly underperformed his batted balls. There was undoubtedly some health, and the fact that he has shown no ability to hit lefties the past couple seasons.

Honestly, I’d be willing to give him April as a full-time player, and if he’s stil flailing against lefties, that’s it, he’s a platoon guy (screw the sample size implications – though there are some indicators you ca use that stabilize faster)

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

he was okay against lefties in 2009

but I think he’d be a really good platoon option, though I don’t know if the Jays are willing to relegate him a platoon role. Lind and Edwin would make a good first baseman + bench bat

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 8:51 PM EST up reply actions  

2009 Lind

He was fine against lefties (100 wRC+) but that paled compared to righties (154 wRC+) – the split was significant. Now if 2012 Lind is anywhere close to 2009, by all means play him everyday. But 2011 Lind (71 vs. 105w RC) has basically the same splits. 2011 Lind is useful, as a platoon guy strictly though.

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

As for the Jays actually platooning him

I hope so. So much easier if Thames/Snider was a righty, just rotate 4 guys through the 3 positions. I think AA will make a move in this regard, I’d speculate, by we all know if he does it’s coming out of nowhere anyway

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

when lind was hitting good for us last year

he was crushing everyone. for a while before the first injury & when he returned from everyone, lefties didn’t matter. then he dropped off the map, moreso against lefties, but maybe a healthy lind does hit lefties

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

lind at times last year

was playing as good as bautista. if it really is his health that caused his decline, then i am along with the team in giving him every opportunity to succeed again. maybe get EE at 1st a bunch more times (if he is hacking it, but if hes booting the ball around Lind is going to tough it out again)

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 8:56 PM EST up reply actions  

and at no times in 2010 was he as good as Bautista

and Lind’s awesome stretch was like a month long. a Major League season is six

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

when he returned from that injury?

he was putting up #‘s close to jose’s for a couple weeks. and before the injury for a week or 2 he was as well. If it was less it wasn’t a whole lot less, and being alittle less then the best player in baseball is pretty great anyways.

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Again, it was one month

A fair number of guys look close to the best player overall when you only consider their best month.

Unfortunately, for 3 months he didn’t have a clue (or hit lik it anyway)

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah

if it was entirely the injury, he wouldn’t have hit so amazingly in June. either that, or he wouldn’t have averaged like a .590 OPS from July to September

by benk on Dec 8, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

idk, just felt like it was a very good period of time before & after his first injury

i just want to be positive & see that as a glimmer of hope that maybe the injury really effected him & possibly that was the only time he was playing at 100%. Hes the only thing we got right now, so trying to be as positive as possible lol

by TheMainEvent on Dec 8, 2011 9:04 PM EST up reply actions  

That's cool

But you can’t plan a team around wishful thinking and blind optimism – Lind can be useful, but I don’t think you can count on him being 2009 Lind until he shows it.

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Twixt the optimist and the pessimist, and never the twain shall meet.

It’s just a worldview – you see the doughnut, I see the hole. Neither is completely right

by MjwW on Dec 8, 2011 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Can you imagine the Jays line-up for 2012

being almost exactly the same as ’11 but with the addition of Jeff Mathis? Oh wait…

Jeff Mathis = final piece of the puzzle.

by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Dec 11, 2011 9:45 AM EST reply actions  

except we have 3 much better players for a full season instead of only like 1/3rd. and much needed fresh starts for 2 of them

i like how people just act like theres no improvement over last year when having lawrie, rasmus, and johnson a full year is a major improvement. having thames or snider a full year instead of patterson/mccoy/davis/loewin is a major improvement. having anybody but jojo reyes on the mound is a major improvement, and having santos close has to be an improvement from the results we got last year. and last year we still managed to finish .500 with all those issues

by TheMainEvent on Dec 11, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

think he was kidding

but good points nonetheless

Derp

by Pikachu on Dec 11, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

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