Reconsidering Juan Rivera

by peterzm on Feb 20, 2011 7:00 PM EST

Juan Rivera comes from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in Baseball, and has consistently hit substantially better on the road.

On average the Angels and there opponents only score 86.4% of the runs they score on the road and 82.5% as many home runs and so one would expect hitters to have somewhat lower production from Angels players. He is moving to a hitter friendly park in Toronto, where teams score 105.8% of the runs that Toronto and their opponents score on the road, and where they hit 135.8% of the home runs.

( http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor )

Juan Rivera has rough home stats.

2009 Road BA-.308 OPS -.851 Home BA- .270 OPS-.762

2010 Road BA-.283 OPA-.819 Home BA- .223 OPS-..625

If we average his road OPS over the past two years we get .835 which would be good enough for 14th among all outfielders in baseball last year.

( http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/of/sort/OPS/order/true -- I didn't include either Luke Scott or Vladimir Guerrero because they played the vast majority of their positions at DH)

This is not even accounting for the fact that he is not moving to a major league average park, but a park that should give him a significant boost in terms of both OPS and especially home runs.

He is moving to a hitter friendly park in Toronto. He is coming off a poor season in a while, and so his trading value is fairly low.

Even if he isn't in the Jays long term plans, I think he is likely to have more value towards the trading deadline and is worth holding on to till later in the season.

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Blue Jays analysis has argued similarly for different reasons. http://bluejaysanalysis.com/2011/02/20/jays-better-off-keeping-juan-rivera-around/

by peterzm on Feb 20, 2011 7:17 PM EST reply actions

Hey, thanks for the link, feels nice to not to have whore my site on my own. Thanks for the comment on there too.

Writer for BlueJaysAnalysis.com a new Jays blog I hope is worth you checking out, and writer for Calltothepen.com as well. Follow me on twitter @Tpinzone

by teejay1324 on Feb 20, 2011 7:47 PM EST up reply actions

the park factor

I actually did some more reading b/c I hadn’t heard whether the angels played in a pitchers park as well, and it seems that it is a slight pitchers park but last year was a bit of an anomaly. On a ten year average the angels and their apponents score 96% of there runs at home compared to the road. The Jays during that time have scored 104% of there runs at home versus the road so he should see a slight improvement as a result of parks. I’m still wondering if part of the other reason his stats might of stats might of suffered at home or if it’s just a couple of year anomaly.

by peterzm on Feb 20, 2011 8:03 PM EST reply actions

Hmmmm

It’ll be interesting to see if statistically speaking, Rivera will outperform Wells this season.

by REMO on Feb 20, 2011 10:36 PM EST up reply actions

despite the rumours, I really think AA is going to keep him around

It’s not as though they’re deep in the OF. He’s not an All-Star, but he’s not a bad player, either.

by REMO on Feb 20, 2011 10:38 PM EST up reply actions

Rivera is currently worth B listed player if he were to leave us after this season; however, he will have to put up a good year to remain a B listed player considering his poor season last year. Although it is a long shot, it is possible he has a good year and opts to go for free agency netting us a compensation pick.

I am not sure how far Davis is from free agency, but he isn’t far from be a type B player either.

by Joey P on Feb 21, 2011 6:52 AM EST reply actions

According to Cot’s Davis is signed for next season at 2.7 million with a club option for ’13 too.

Writer for BlueJaysAnalysis.com a new Jays blog I hope is worth you checking out, and writer for Calltothepen.com as well. Follow me on twitter @Tpinzone

by teejay1324 on Feb 21, 2011 8:46 AM EST up reply actions