Bluebird Links During a Slow Week

by masterkembo on Feb 4, 2011 10:05 AM EST in Toronto Blue Jays Links

The last week, in my opinion has definitely been the slow point of the off season. There is next to nothing happening that is newsworthy, but there has been lots of speculation. I'm glad spring training is starting up soon so we'll have something concrete to talk about! Here are your links.

Jays Links

Prospect Talk: Layin' Down the Law (and the Farrell)
The Drunks have a couple of summaries from Fan590 interviews of Keith Law and John Farrell. Law really likes Stewart and thinks he has starter stuff going forward and he likes Travis d'Arnaud as a high upside prospect going forward. Farrell says that there are five main questions that need answering through Spring Training.

Can Blue Jays' Jose Bautista live up to 2010 performance?
Morosi thinks that the Red Sox reported interest in Bautista indicates that they think he is primed for another good season.

Jays Bullpen Set to Make $19+ Million
According to Mop-up Duty, the $19+M bullpen will be the second highest bullpen in Jays history.

Rookies, Rookies, and More Rookies
The 500 Level Fan takes a look at historical rookie of the year voting. The last Jay to receive a vote was Gustavo Chacin in 2005 which doesn't compare well with Boston and Tampa of late. But, the future is looking bright.

Former big league pitcher Dennis Lamp's adaptability still serves him well
An ex-Jay working at a seafood counter - and he enjoys it. Lamp went 11-0 in 53 games (1 start) and 105.2 IP in 1985 for the Jays.

Stepping Up the Running Game
The Blue Jay hunter thinks that if the Jays step up the run game they could win a few more games. He uses 'extra bases taken percentage' and determines the Jays were 2nd worse in the AL last year (a baseball-reference.com stat). I agree with the conclusions, but this aside was a little off in my opinion:

Perhaps most surprising of them all is Travis Snider's lack of extra bases. I can't recall exactly when, but it was during a Jays Talk last season that Mike Wilner said something to the effect that Travis Snider was faster than Fred Lewis. If it's a race to who can eat 30 hot dogs faster, then yes ... Travis Snider is faster. However, if there is any truth in the numbers above, it indicates Lewis was in fact the better player at advancing bases than Snider.

This 'stat' is the perfect example of a small sample size type stat that we shouldn't be drawing conclusions from. Lewis had 40 opportunities to add to this 'stat' and Snider had 29 opportunities. The stat doesn't take into account how hard a ball is it, where it is hit, if a play was a hit and run, etc. I don't think you can say that one player is better at advancing bases than the other.

Around the League

The 20 Biggest Free Agent Deals Of The Offseason
Twenty free agents signed deals worth more than $15M this year. Three ex-Jays make the list. Ted Lilly is guaranteed $33M (10th on the list), John Buck's $18M was the 15th highest free agent contract this off-season and Scott Downs comes in at number 20 ($15M).

Stick a Fork in the Grapefruit League
Alex Remington at FanGraphs compares the Florida Grapefruit league with the Arizona Cactus League. More teams are moving to the Arizona league, and unless Florida shuts down the east coast teams, the Grapefruit league is in trouble.

Team Preview Schedule
Travis Reitsma at Baseball Canadiana is putting together team previews for the upcoming season so keep an eye out for those.

Rays sign Felipe Lopez
I would have liked if the Jays had signed him.

The Yankees Should Trade for Barry Zito
Jonah Keri figures the Yanks have money to blow, and they could use a 4th/5th starter, so why not look at a guy like Zito that won't cost any prospects?

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Bautista/Red Sox

I read this story on FoxSports.com yesterday. Why is it the Red Sox interest in trading for him that “validates” his 2010 season and future potential? If they hadn’t tried to trade for him, does that mean that the whole world deems his 2010 to be a fluke? I’m not saying it was or wasn’t an outlier, but when did the Theo Epstein get crowned the Lord of Talent Evaluation? Why can’t what Bautista did just stand on its own merits?

Anyway, aside from my rant, I did like Morosi’s comment that AA could probably draft new CBA’s for both the MLB and NFL – in English and French – on his lunch break :)

We have to do what we do better and we have to do it faster! - Jack Bauer

by Corey Perrin on Feb 4, 2011 11:07 AM EST reply actions

That rubs me the wrong way too.

All Theo Epstein has done is turn the Red Sox into the Yankees.

Trapped in the past, Craig finds himself leaping from blog to blog, putting things right that once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap will be the leap home.

by craig in calgary on Feb 4, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

And you know, brought the World Series to Boston. Twice.

by masterkembo on Feb 4, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions

Fixed

And you know, bought the World Series for Boston. Twice

I’m mostly kidding. Mostly.

Trapped in the past, Craig finds himself leaping from blog to blog, putting things right that once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap will be the leap home.

by craig in calgary on Feb 4, 2011 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

My favorite excerpt from Morosi's piece:

The Blue Jays would, in fact, love to acquire a frontline third baseman and move Bautista to right. They have roughly two months to do so before Opening Day. That is an eternity for industrious general manager Alex Anthopoulos, who could probably draw up a new collective bargaining agreement for baseball … and the NFL … in English and French … on his lunch hour.

Festina Lente

by HESS2479 on Feb 4, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions

‘extra bases taken percentage’

It’s a bad stat, pure and simple. So much about that part of the game is contextual that it is pointless to calculate it, and even worse to draw conclusions from it. That being said, I think you can certainly say one player is better advancing bases than another, but the only proof is observational, which is the tricky part.

One of the things I really like about Scutaro in 2009 was the way he ran the bases; smart, head’s up play and he understood his speed and acceleration well enough to take a calculated risk moving up an extra base. It was a nice contrast to a lot of ballplayers, who seem to run the bases almost by rote: if the ball is hit here, go to second. If there’s a guy on first and you hit one into the gap, so at second regardless of the position of the fielders, the arms of the fielder, etc.

by dexfarkin on Feb 4, 2011 11:19 AM EST reply actions

You're certainly right in that it is contextual

but there are bigger problems with the stat than that. I started to make a lengthy reply, but I think I’ll just put together a full post on it. There are some points I’d like to make on it

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Feb 4, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

It's up now

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Feb 4, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

Scutaro and Rios seem to be on opposite ends of the spectrum

Scoot’s head was always in the game and seemed to try to take the extra base whenever he could (As hilighted on taking 2nd after a walk). Rios on the other hand seemed like he was daydreaming as soon as he got to 1st…it was really quite maddening

Trapped in the past, Craig finds himself leaping from blog to blog, putting things right that once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap will be the leap home.

by craig in calgary on Feb 4, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions

Im not arguing, because I agree (mostly), but I imagine our memories are partially clouded by extreme examples. Scoot taking 2nd on a walk is such an extreme example we end up focusing on that. Personally I don’t remember the rest of his baserunning skills, nothing else stands out.

Conversely Rios got caught daydreaming a couple of times and as such as end up focusing on those plays.

Nothing stands out in favour of Wells being a great baserunner in my mind, but I clearly remember thinking many times over the course of the past couple seasons that he made great plays going from 1st to rd.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Feb 4, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions

Scutaro seemed to be the best at taking 2nd on long fly balls

But you are right, I’m often clouded by my preconcieved notions (As I’m sure most of you already know)

Trapped in the past, Craig finds himself leaping from blog to blog, putting things right that once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap will be the leap home.

by craig in calgary on Feb 4, 2011 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

Oh its not just you, Its everyone. Everyone remembers the extreme examples because just by definition of being extreme they stand out.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Feb 4, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions

Granted, it’s subjective. Although, I think it’s fair to say that if you watch a lot of games and are a student of the game, you’re hopefully less succeptable to making judgements based on one play or allowing it to permanently colour your perception of the player. I try to watch the games with a critical eye, and when I think I’ve seen something unique about a player’s skills, good or bad, I try to look for additional evidence for and against it. That’s why I’m comfortable saying I liked Scutaro’s baserunning and thought he was above average, because I looked for it. Same with Rolen, only in reverse.

With Scutaro, even when he was thrown out, I remember very few times when the call wasn’t close. To me, that indicates he made the right judgement because he had about an even chance to take the extra base. He took second on fly balls and went from first to third with fair consistancy and a high success rate.

by dexfarkin on Feb 4, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

Add to it that, through his reasoning (Lewis must be faster than Snider, as he’s ahead of him with his XBT%) Lind (As in Adam “How slow can I go” Lind) is faster than Snider, as he, too, is ahead of him on this stat.

Should I resort to the banned phrase of “If you would have watched baseball at all…”? No. No need. Johnny will banhammer me for it, and me no like hammer, Johnny, you hear?!

However, I’ll permit myself to wonder on how far can you stretch those made-up stats in baseball. Pardon my French, but that XBT% stat might be as useful as my newly-invented BCtpmBomWTW%* stat

*BCtpmBomWTW%: in case you wonder, that is the percentage of Blue Cars That Passed Me By On My Way To Work. It’s anessential stat in calculating which is faster – BMW or Fiat. Don’t ask me why, as it is so obvious you should be ashamed to ask…

Festina Lente

by HESS2479 on Feb 4, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

I think there’s certainly a trend online to assert that everything in baseball can be quantified, and not trust anything that doesn’t have an applicable statistic. But I think there’s a lot of faulty reasoning that underlines some areas of statistics, and it’s important to look at the basis and structure of the formula before rolling it out as ‘fact’.

That being said, the more stats that we have (and I can ignore when I feel like), the better it is. Because when I want to say ‘Travis Snider is a great hitter because I’ve watched him and he’s shown me that he is’ and dive into the stats, they back me up. Or, they don’t, and instead of sounding like an idiot, I get to see what the stats do say and figure out whether I’m looking at something in the wrong way or I’m being influenced by selective memory. It’s a great way to force yourself to think critically about what you’re seeing on the field and understand it better.

I think fielding stats right now are way too varied and inaccurate to do more than give you a rough thumbnail of what the numbers mean to an average player with all things being equal. UZR and the like are a nice basic sketch of a player, but I’d never base whether or not X player was a good or poor fielder solely on the numbers at this point. I think a lot of the situational stats looking at baserunning are equally flawed; a vague picture that is at best sorta correct generally.

by dexfarkin on Feb 4, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

I’ll agree this stat all depends on the context – sometimes runners may have the advantage depending on where the ball was hit, if the outfielder misses the cutoff man, etc. But it’s just a little food for thought looking at the Blue Jays baserunning woes.

by Ian BJH on Feb 4, 2011 1:56 PM EST reply actions