Are You Happy With the Jays Off-Season?
by Tom Dakers on Feb 5, 2011 2:15 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintIt is a question I've been asking myself. I mean, I'm still totally amazed by the Vernon Wells trade. David Copperfield making the Statue of Liberty disappear has nothing on Alex Anthopoulos making Vernon Wells' contract disappear. And I like getting Brett Lawrie for Shaun Marcum. And it seems like our bullpen will be at least as good as last year's.
But then, we won 86 games last year, and suddenly our outfield looks like it will have Rajai Davis and Juan Rivera in it every day. Neither seem like guys I really want to watch play a lot. Edwin as DH doesn't excite me much either. We seem very thin at every position, other than pitcher. If an infielder gets hurt, it is as likely as not that John McDonald will be filling in. An outfielder gets hurt and, if nothing much changes, Corey Patterson may be the guy playing. Does anyone want to see that? I'm glad J.P. Arencibia will be getting a good chance to play, but Jose Molina isn't someone I want to see get a lot of playing time.
The future does look bright. In two or three years we could have a team that is in a spot to compete every year. And I'm not thinking, like Griffin is, that we have a 60 win team on our hands. Our pitching staff is too good and I'm expecting good seasons from Snider, Lind, Escobar, Bautista and Hill. The others should be ok, as long as we don't have many injuries.
But why aren't we going for it this year. The Yankees don't really remind me of world beaters. The Rays have had a fair amount of turnover. The Red Sox do look better than last year, but maybe not that much better. It doesn't seem to be the right year, at least to me, to laying back.
I know there is 53 days left until opening day and Alex likely will be doing a few things before then. But I find myself fantasizing that Brett Lawrie, Darin Mastroianni and Eric Thames have terrific springs and make me think we have some depth on the team. I know it is too much to ask for, but if Thames or Lawrie could make the team, I'd feel so much better with Rivera on the bench or traded somewhere.
Let's have a poll:
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I agree with you 100%
I think you hit it right on. Overall, it’s hard not to be very, very happy with how the team shapes up for the future after this offseason. But at the same time, when Manny Ramirez destroys the Jays all year while we’re watching Edwin Encarnacion stink it up at DH every day, I think I’ll be a bit frustrated.
Then again, Anthopoulos has said he can see Edwin have a 30-40 home run season, and, hey, his signings last year that we didn’t get excited about turned out pretty well, so hopefully he’s right about that one too.
I think EE can have a good year....
but I’d rather have him at 3B, let Jose play RF and let Rivera be fourth outfielder. EE might hit a lot of home runs, but I’d like to see someone that would get on base a bit more as a DH.
fair point
but I’d bet E5’s OBA is quite a bit higher than 2010, his career OBA is a pretty solid (though not great, particularly for a DH) .336 and his ~.305 OBA from last year was probably a result of a .235 BABIP
right, he almost can't do worse than last year
He still isn’t my idea of a DH, but I’d bet a bunch he’ll get on better than.305
by Tom Dakers on Feb 5, 2011 7:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Michael Young
There’s a rumour over at MLBTR that Michael Young’s situation in Texas has deteriorated and they are looking to trade him with the Jays and A’s being the likely destinations.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/michael-young-rumors-saturday.html
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Feb 5, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
I recognize that Olney’s batting average is below the Mendoza Line, but AA’s MO is to try to do a deal when he can deal from strength. The Angels had struck out on their Plans A and B for an impact outfielder. AA knew that Napoli was on the outs in LaLaLand but was a useful trading chip. Throughout, AA had kept the lines of communication open and eventually they did the VW deal. Last season, when Escobar had worn out his welcome in Altanta, AA was able to pull off that trade. Now Michael Young is available at 16MM per season to 2013. There’s no way that AA wants to take on all that salary, but I doubt Oakland does either, so if Texas does want to unload him, they’ll have to eat some salary. For the right price, AA could think Young would be a useful third baseman until Lawrie is ready, which might be in time to trade Young at the deadline or when a deep pocketed team has an injury. This also moves Bautista back to the outfield and makes Rivera tradebait.
Likely? Not really, but something I think AA might do if it involves assets that don’t figure into the long term plans and it can be done at the right price. He’s certainly not a player at this stage of his career that you’d pay a lot for.
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Feb 5, 2011 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
So you don’t think AA just double-dog dared the Angels?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Feb 6, 2011 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn’t want to play poker against AA, but I would love to go fishing with him. I suspect he’s a master angler!
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Feb 6, 2011 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
I'm happy
The win now moves cost more, and are likely futile. Not worth it IMO. Spending an extra 20-30 million and not likely do any better(no playoffs is no playoffs) seems pretty pointless to me.
The Red Sox were hit hard by injuries last year let’s not forget, so saying they look a bit better, is probably an understatement. The division is still very strong, and the Jays aren’t, yet.
The Jays just spent three consecutive offseasons not going out of their way to win a game
following a season in which they had a better pythagorean record than the division champion.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
If
Pythagorean record won divisions, that might be important.
by sportsguy2905 on Feb 7, 2011 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
What other metric would a team use to estimate their team performance
based on their projections of the performances of their individual players?
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Two very cheap signings could make this team WAY better...
PH/DH/1B Russell Branyan, at 1 year $2MM + 2nd year club option for $2.5MM
and
OF/PR/PH/DH Podsednik (same contract).
Two lefty bats, defensive insurance, with good upside, for ~$5MM or less. Possible trade chips/ type B compensation )Podsednik esp.) etc…
I REALLY hope AA isn’t done. We have very little MLB depth, and our bench is terrible.
Molina/McDonald/Podsednik/Branyan is a great bench, IMO.
The question is, whether AA would prefer to play rookies in place of injuries, or go with cheap bandaid solutions like Mencherson etc.
signing russell gives the jays three guys who can only play 1st and DH, seems AA is more
into creating positional flexibility this year
3???
Who is the third… Lind is one… Russell would be number two.. If your refering to edwin, keep in mind he plays 3B too..
What else do we need?
We need insurance at 1B. We need a lefty bat or two. We have JMac to cover all IF positions other than 1B. Branyan can play 3B if really needed.
You would rather Mike McCoy over Branyan?
It’s called depth. Viable, MLB depth.
not once did I say I'd prefer McCoy, try reading what I said, I didn't say what I'd
prefer, I said AA seems to want positional flexibility and I don’t think having 3 1b/dh’s is what he has in mind. Also remember he promised EE a full time job, and after reading his defense of why Buck played over JPA last year I don’t see AA changing on that, so then there wouldn’t be too many at bats for Branyan. Knowing that I’m guessing Branyan is looking for more of a full time deal as well.
I meant, "would you prefer McCoy".
If Branyan is looking for a FT gig, he is running out of options fast. Don’t forget, EE and Lind can play other positions, so backing up 1B and DH actually covers DH/LF/3B/1B
What about Podsednik?
I agree with you on Pods, even though he was crappy when he went to LA
I know EE can play 3rd but I don’t think we’ll see him there, especially when AA has stated he signed him for 1b/dh not 3rd. I’d like another bat there too, but failing a trade I don’t see much coming IMO.
I don't understand all this impatience
What’s the point of loading up on high end prospects if Toronto is going to try and win now? The division is just as potent as it was last year and the Blue Jays have lost quite a bit of offensive production. The moves that would realistically put the Jays into contention would be crippling and risky. This is a franchise built for s strong, consistent future, not a brief shot a the wild card.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 5, 2011 3:28 PM EST reply actions
+1
I want to see what these guys can do before we start yabbering about which FAs they should sign.
In an ironic and not quite hypocritical turn… speaking of really wild ones. apparently Pujuols and the Cards aren’t close. It doesn’t hurt to think about it for a moment or too before reality kicks in.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 5, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
Why does building a perennial winner and being competitive in 2011 have to be mutually exclusive?
no one is suggesting a move that would “cripple” the Jays, but signing a FA that would improve the club to a 2 year contract to play 120+ games in the outfield/DH doesn’t cripple anything. If we had some young prospect looking to get some swings, that is another thing but I don’t think anyone is thinking Rajai Davis or Juan Rivera is going to be with the club for any extended period of time.
I’m not saying throw all sorts of money at 4-5 FA’s to make a brief run, but no one could convince me giving Manny a John McDonaldesqe contract wouldn’t make the Jays a better team in 2011.
Trapped in the past, Craig finds himself leaping from blog to blog, putting things right that once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap will be the leap home.
by craig in calgary on Feb 5, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
The additions necessary to get the Blue Jays into the playoffs are more complex than just adding Manny Ramirez or Vladimir Guerrero. If Toronto added Manny, they might offset the production they’ve lost in Wells, and end up finishing 3rd or 4th. What is the point of playing a little better, still not making the playoffs, and drafting lower? Unless they’re making the playoffs there is no need to feign competitiveness, and they aren’t making the playoffs by adding Manny Ramirez.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 5, 2011 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
The Jays compared to last year are probably going to get improvement at First Base (Lind is probably going to rebound), 2nd base (Hill probably will also improve significantly), SS (maybe a slight improvement— if Escobar returns fully to form—top of the order much improved), and assuming we would have signed Manny EE could have equalled or improved slightly with a full year. In the outfield losing last years Wells for Davis will hurt, Snider’s improvement in a full year I would expect would even out Bautista regression.
This year simply not using Tallet in high leverage situations, combined with our other pickups will leave our Bullpen fairly significantly improved.
A full year and relatively more durability of our young starters should leave most of them somewhat improved. In terms of losing Marcum, I think expect somewhat comparable numbers from Rzep, and significantly improved numbers overall from our fifth starter. I would suggest that our improvement in that spot would make up for any regression in losing Marcum.
Manny at DH would have significantly improved our numbers over last year and helped our young hitters, and would have gave us a significant boost at contending while not costing much or really sacrificing anything towards the future.
Injuries or regression could have left us out of contention but what would we have lost by signing him. We are never going to be expected to win the East by a landslide so we need to always be going for it in ways that don’t sacrifice the future. Overall I am quite happy with our offseason though.
Less runs in 2010
The Jays scored 43 fewer runs in 2010 than in 2009. If their offense comes back to 2009 levels and their pitching stays the same, they should be able to win more games. Those are big IFs though.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Feb 6, 2011 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
We all assumed Snider would break out last year, and EE would stay healthy, and Hill/Lind would put up similar numbers to their 2009 seasons. I would be careful to assume any of these players will perform to the degree we assume they will.
Even if the lineup and staff meet all expectations we set for them, this does not account for the improved division.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 6, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think anyone is "assuming" anything.
“Hoping” might have been a better word. I don’t see anyone other than Boston, maybe, that’s improved, and they would have done that by just simply being healthy.
If it is hope, it is a disguised hope. There are many comments here regarding how we will have improved production at 1B, 2B, SS as well as a healthy season from Encarnacion.
Concerning the AL East, obviously Boston is greatly improved, but so is Baltimore. Toronto will not beat Baltimore 17 times this year because their rotation is one year more experienced and their lineup has undergone a complete makeover. Tampa Bay has taken a step back in losing Garza, Peña and Crawford, but they have able prospects in Jennings and Hellickson ready to step in and offset the lost production. The Yankees are the exact same team, minus Pettitte, however they are one year older. And as you say, Boston would be an improved team by just being healthy, but the additions of Crawford and Gonzalez make them a scary team.
The AL East is as terrifying as ever and the Blue Jays have stagnated if not slightly regressed.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 6, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Don't believe the Jays have stagnated or regressed.
Some on here might argue we improved when Tallet signed with the Cards. lol
Our rotation is also a year wiser. To me, our bullpen let us down a number of times last year. I believe it will be vastly improved. The rest of the team is where the hope comes in.
I find that it’s not playing against our own division that knocks us off in the hunt for the post season (think we hold our own against all of them). It’s the inter-league (we always get swept at least once), and losing to teams that we should be beating. Still can’t get being swept by Cleveland last year out of my head.
I believe this is coincidental, it’s not like the NL uses a hack against the Jays. But yes, in the last few seasons we’ve done alright against the AL East (Baltimore) and gotten slapped by some strange teams.
For the sake of debate and I bring up the Jays’ possible regression, but I believe that, all things considered, there has been total stagnation throughout the team. This is not to say that every player has stagnated, but certain players’ gains will be met by the losses of other players. However, I am quite confident when I say that I doubt they will win 85 games.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 6, 2011 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
You make some good points
But I’m always the optimist going into the season, therefore I believe this team will win 85-90 games. I think (hope) this team will surprise some people this season.
90 games might win us the wildcard, and that would be very interesting, but I just don’t see it in the cards this year.
You know what would fantastic though? If the Jays signed Halladay for the 2013 season and took the AL East undemocratically, making everybody else look like mismanaged fools.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 6, 2011 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Boston's not all that awesome
3/5 of their rotation is weak (Beckett’s been injured, but very few if any pitchers rebound from that kind of awful season, Lackey’s weak, Dice-K sucks against everyone but the Jays.)
Buch might regress according to his FIP and xFIP
Lester’s the only consistent starter they’ve got
Offense will be amazing though.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 6, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions
Very true
No team is perfect, but Boston is as perfect as they come, considering their home park. I don’t watch enough of Boston to tell if Beckett, Lackey, and Dice-K were unlucky or just bad, but either way, they should win the division.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 6, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
A Boston writer
…wrote recently that Boston committed $160 to Lackey and Beckett and have basically gotten back a tuna sandwich….
…JD Drew is having hamstring issues already…
…Ellsbury got a 384% raise playing in only 19 games last year.
I DO watch Boston and the reason we play the games is because you never know, from year to year, what is going to happen.
We didn't beat Baltimore 17 times in 2010 either.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
You're right
I included the preseason games when I counted (is there a database recording teams’ records against each other?) so they were actually 15-3 – still a shameful effort on Baltimore’s part.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 6, 2011 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
People are really underrating the Yankees and Rays this year. Not signing Manny was disappointing, but who knows why we didn’t: perhaps Farrell really didn’t like his potential influence on the other players, or perhaps he didn’t even want to come to Toronto.
Exactly
The Yankees are still very talented and so are the Rays. But what about the Orioles? Wieters, Hardy, Lee, Guerrero, Jones, Reynolds, Markakis and Roberts. That’s a very potent lineup, and their pitching staff is one year more experienced. The Jays won’t be going 17-3 against them this year and would be lucky to finish above . 500 considering the lost production. Manny Ramirez wasn’t going to hit 90 home runs and bat in 300 runs.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 5, 2011 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
their pitching is still pretty bad
Their only solid (even that’s a stretch) pitchers are Matusz and Guthurie. i don’t see them as a .500+ team
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 6, 2011 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Me neither
I still think (hope) they’ll finish last, but we certainly won’t be 17-3 against them. Without our season series against the Orioles, we were below .500.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 6, 2011 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Without their season series against us
the Orioles were still worse than us.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I think we are better than the Orioles, but the margin is smaller than it was last year, and we will have a worse record because of it.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 6, 2011 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
Depth
I don’t get why everyone is so concerned about depth. We are not going to win the World Series this year. If someone gets injured, let’s see what Lawrie, Stewart and others can do. I also think that we are being too hard on Davis and Rivera. I think they are better than what they are being credited for. Davis could steal upwards of 50 bases at the top of the order and Rivera can drive in key runs towards the bottom. I’m ready to start the season!
we don't need an answer this year
We’re not competing, a stop-gap (even a terrible one) is fine for the being
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 5, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
-1
Why even get a stop gap?
We’re not competing this year, let’s just put an end table in LF. Maybe with a nice lamp? Maybe a sudoku puzzle on it?
Trapped in the past, Craig finds himself leaping from blog to blog, putting things right that once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap will be the leap home.
by craig in calgary on Feb 5, 2011 5:38 PM EST up reply actions
lets not act like
the world is ending just because McCoy and Patterson plays. The point is seeing what we have in the younger players (which should have happened last september).They’re not taking time away from Snider, Arencibia, or Drabek, or whatever that will come up through the system. And having cheap stopgaps allow us to explore more trades in-season.
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 5, 2011 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
A couple scrap-heap pickups could also pay off bigtime. A bat like Branyan could be a hot commodity come July, if he hits some bombs...
Which he would most certainly do at Rogers Centre, IMO. Podsednik is a Type B, so there is also a chance he could bring compensation (If we payed him say $1MM + $1.5MM club option, and he declined), or he could also be traded.
They could also get 500 PA. We were very lucky with injuries last season.
I just think that these are two players that would cost very little, offer insurance, and some nice (MLB) upside to boot.
On the other hand, if Mastroianni or someone like Eric Thames does very well in ST, I would get behind playing the rooks.
But really… what`s the downside to taking on two proven MLB players, that fit holes, for $3-4MM max? They can take ABs from McCoy and Patterson. We have JMac, Patterson and McCoy should be in Vegas.
You know what grinds my gears?
The “we ain’t winning the WS this year, so why bother making any moves” mentality.
If you truly think that way, remember that on July 29th if we just lost to Baltimore 9-2 and are 13 games under .500 and there are more people in my living room than in Rogers Centre.
Trapped in the past, Craig finds himself leaping from blog to blog, putting things right that once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap will be the leap home.
by craig in calgary on Feb 5, 2011 4:15 PM EST reply actions
I think what people really dont like are "win now moves" if they involve trading away future assets.
If it is a “win now move” that only involves spending a bit of money, I dont see how you could be against that.
Signing a few 2 year guy as a win now option can have 2 drawbacks. one being that they may end up blocking a young kid from coming up and playing late in the year as was the case last year with JPA. We all know that it is hard to get these free agents are hard to get up here and we need to offer guaranteed money and playing time to make sure they sign. AA has shown that he will stick to his word and provide the playing time no matter if they are out of the hunt by September. The second problem with the win now signings is if we are hovering around the playoffs come trade time and there is pressure to trade our good prospects for a rent a player who can get us to the dance this year.
I’m happy with what we are doing this year and look forward to a playoff team in 2013.
by Matan on Feb 5, 2011 4:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I’m tired of 85 win, 3rd/4th place finishes. Let’s blow hard this year, get an impact prospect and get ready to start fisting the rest of the league in 2013.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 5, 2011 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
Being good enough to want to make a playoff run is a bad thing?
You’re right, we should never try to be good enough to make a playoff run. Then we’ll be able to keep our prospects forever!
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I'm OK with Patterson, McDonald, Molina on the bench. 8 man pen.
I’d rather they keep an 8 man pen then losing a good arm to another team.
Patterson plays 1-2 times/week. McDonald gets a start every 2nd week. Molina gets 25% of starts. Patterson could actually be quite useful, I think. He can swipe bags and is not a terrible platoon option. As for Rivera, AA says that he thinks Rivera can match Wells’ 2010 production, so you never know…
If an injury occurs to an outfielder, they call up Thames or Mastro, whichever is more ready. If an infielder gets hurt, then it’s either Lawrie gets called up or McDonald takes over and McCoy gets called up as the backup.
Of course, I wouldn’t mind if they could sign someone who could play multiple infield positions, as a backup, but who is out there, really.
One more year
I am okay with the off season this year. I believe that AA has set up the frame work for a layered minor league system that he talked about. With the Jays having a controlling interest in this years draft and the new emphasis on signing draft picks, it appears that the Jays will have the necessary pieces in the system to make some moves in next years off season.
I remember an interview AA gave on the fan when he first was hired, he spoke about one day being able to trade 2 number two starters for an ace. Or trading a couple of top notch prospects for a elite talent without crushing a system. With a good draft this year the Jays will be in that position to part ways with prospects for talent.
I also believe that when Rogers says the “money is available” when the time is right that the company is being honest. I know the Jays can’t come out and say it, but to me it appears that they are gearing up for 2012 and beyond.
I personally have bought into the young controllable model that the jays have set up and can be patient…. at least for one more year.
by Al Bundy is my hero on Feb 5, 2011 4:46 PM EST reply actions
Count the roster spots the Jays have to fill after the season
A cure for optimism.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I'm good
I think there’s a legitimate sense that this year isn’t a contending year, but more importantly, this year is when the opportunity arose to make some big moves that make us weaker short term but a lot stronger long term. It is unfortunate that it coinsides with a weak Yankee rotation and a potentially vulnerable Tampa Bay, but I think that you had to make those moves and avoid the temptation of adding some negative contracts. I also think it’s an assessment year for a lot of guys in the organization, and while a bunch of one year cheap deals would have made us better for 2011, I don’t think it would have given the Jays the chance to shake out the entire org and see what they have.
What?
What have we lost?
-Lyle Overbay replaced by Edwin Encarnacion/Adam Lind (no big loss)
-Vernon Wells replaced by Juan Rivera (small loss, offset by the contract dump)
-Shaun Marcum replaced by Kyle Drabek (maybe a loss, but maybe not. Drabek has ace potential, Marcum has number 3 potential. So MAYBE a loss.
-Kevin Gregg/Scott Downs replaced by Rauch/Francisco/Dotel (no big loss).
I have a VERY hard time believing that this team is 20 wins worse than last season. If we’re using this logic, then I also have a very hard time believing that the Red Sox are “not that improved” as Tom says, based on their changes (Beltre-Gonzalez and Drew-Crawford).
I really wish that Jays fans would understand that while this team is not that bad, they’re a ways away from contending. This team would not go to the playoffs with Guerrero (and his bad knees), Ramirez (and his bad attitude), Branyan (and his appalling strikeout rate) or Podsednik (and his appalling overall inconsistency). This team would not go to the playoffs with any combination of these players. These players are unable to provide any sort of meaningful difference in terms of W-L record.
For some reason, impatient Jays fans seem to endow these C list players with the power to turn this team into a contender. It’s not the case! We. Do. Not. Need. Them. In every case, we have a better option in our starting lineup, regardless of how “exciting” they all are.
Sorry if I sounded patronizing, I promise it was unintentional.
Forgot one
And the big one….
Fred Lewis replaced by Rajai Davis (I consider that a gain)
Forgot a couple..
There’s a huge plus.. position wise.. SS is the same..
1B — Lyle vs Lind/EE — No loss there… upgrade if Lind rebounds
2B — Hill 2010 vs Hill — maybe he comes back to Hill 2009, huge upgrade
3B — E5 vs Bautista – upgrade
RF — Bautisa vs Rivera – loss, but considering the other upgrades
CF — Wells vs Davis – slight loss, but might make the lineup more balanced with speed
LF – Lewis vs Snider – Huge Upgrade
C – Buck vs JP – wash here..
DH – Lind 2010 vs ?? – Just about any combination can be an upgrade..
And the bullpen is stronger… The SP as a whole are better considering we’ll get a full season from Morrow…
Totally agree that this team should be just as good if not better than last year, and with the young talent we have and now the financial flexibility… Best offseason in many years..
I’m not sure Drabek has ace potential, I think its more of a good #2 potential.
If his non-fastball/curveball pitches don’t work out, he’s basically an AJ Burnett
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 5, 2011 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
When your talking about a player's potential you presume everything works out
so if he is a #2 in your opinion with out half his pitches, that he defiantly has ace potential
If you can't pay em' trade em' and pay for someone else
Drabek has never been rated as a top of the line starter. He is always rated as a solid two guy in most scouting reports. So ill trust mlb scouts over bloggers any day
I found a delivery in my flaw
His father won a Cy Young award. I don’t think anyone has suggested he is less talented than his dad was at the same age.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Feb 5, 2011 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting about the focus on Manny...
He didn’t play well last year in LA, is horrible defensively – and provides zero flexibility. I suppose no one remembers his selfish attitude in his last season in Boston?
DEFENSE wins world series’ (at least it did last year).
PItching (where we are well situated) – I believe at CF we are way further ahead than with Wells, our middle infield (where we need improved play from Hill) – obviously behind the plate we have a question mark.
I also think our relief corp are MUCH better than our 10th rank group of last year.
Last season was very exciting with all the boom and bash – but defense, a better balanced attack, make me hopeful for another season of improved play.
the manny part is funny, he was awful in Chicago last year and I remember reading something
on baseball prospectus I believe where they talked to several scouts and they said he was done, bat speed dimished and power gone yet I’ve heard none of that this offseason from anyone. Just that he’s the bargain of the offseason (which he may turn out to be, I don’t know)
It’ll be interesting to see if he’s finished or was just merely completely disinterested in playing last year.
Manny’s “attitude” only seemed to exist in the last year when the organization wanted him gone and he wanted out, before that everyone laughed and said manny being manny and by all accounts he was a fun guy to have around.
You only hear the bad things after everything is done and gone and because of that I question them. Heck I heard stories about how hard it was to have Halladay as a teammate here in Toronto because the pitching staff couldn’t get loose. Every loss felt like they had to go into the clubhouse and dwell on it.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Significantly is the key word there.
Is he as good as he was? No
But even last year in what amounted to a "horrible’ year for him, he still would have been one the top 3 hitters on the team.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
The Rays got to where they are because they totally tanked
We’re getting there while remaining at least a bit decent. I like the direction we’re taking, even if we lose some more games next year.
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 5, 2011 5:32 PM EST reply actions
I think a lot of people want us to be like the O's
people want us to be adding guys like Vlad. Strangely enough, lots of guys at CamdenChat are furious at the Vlad signing cause he’s just an expensive stopgap
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 5, 2011 5:38 PM EST reply actions
Sounds like the pole could have used another catagory
Something like… I’m good so far with the off season, but wouldn’t mind a little something more.
That would be the second option
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 5, 2011 6:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Or maybe not. I get what you’re saying
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 5, 2011 6:50 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Will Rogers Centre be empty this year
I think only winning and competing will bring the fans back to watch the Jays.
They had many nights with less than 15K in a 50K building. I was a hollow hole.
And if they wont come out to watch a team which won 86 games….then for sure they are not coming out to watch the JAYS maybe win 78 games. BORING baseball watching your team lose, lose, lose.
They should have kept Napoli.
Last years Jays were not "boaring", they just were never in a penent race, and thats what draws the fans
If you can't pay em' trade em' and pay for someone else
Napoli makes us a competitor?
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 6, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Coupla observations 'bout all this...
IM(H)O we are at least 100% ahead of where we would be right now if JP was still here. That alone makes it a great off-season.
Above someone said Drabek = AJ – WTF? AJ has a FATAL flaw – as the game goes on and he gets into a groove he continues to fall off towards the 1st base side – ONLY – as the game goes on he keeps increasing the fall off – all of a sudden the fall off is just enough that he is no longer throwing strikes – he looses it then and there – and having the brains of a sea slug he can’t seem to get it back. Drabek is not the Second Coming – however – he has WAY cleaner mechanics than AJ.
Davis is better than Lewis. Rivera is NOT MUCH WORSE than Snider was last year. Snider – having a full non-Gaston year will WITHOUT QUESTION be vastly superior to the 2010 Snider.
The ONLY position players I see coming up before September are Thames and Darin Minestroni (The San Franciso Treat). September could see Lawrie, Loewen and D’arnaud all get look sees.
This team has a very good chance to get over .500 at 81 wins. IF you’re a Jay’s fan this year BE WATCHING our 50+ GENUINE prospects in the minors – they are the start of our Continual Contention procession of prospects.
Lets play BALL!!!
World Series
Unless I am mistaken the goal here is to win the World Series. Adding Vladdy. Manny,Michael Younge, and Scott Podsednick (really) will not get you any closer to winning the World Series. Yes i know the Yankees are this.and the Rays are that,. and the groundhog didnt see his shadow.,,, if,if,if . AA has stated numerous times that he isnt really concerned what the others are doing, and that his goal is to have an all-star at every position and a number 3 or better starter in his rotation. I like the direction, and dont need the apetizers before the big feast.
So unless "move X" will lead to a WS, it shouldn't be made?
Ok.
Trapped in the past, Craig finds himself leaping from blog to blog, putting things right that once went wrong, and hoping each time that his next leap will be the leap home.
by craig in calgary on Feb 5, 2011 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
Burnett was rated #21 and #20 best prospect by Baseball America.
people seriously underestimate Burnett. If Drabek turns out to be as good as Burnett I’ll be ecstatic
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 6, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
his stuff is fantastic
but his control is awful. you’d actually be ‘ecstatic’ if Drabek had a career 107 ERA+? that’s fine and all but that’s really nothing to be thrilled about. seems to me Drabek’s peak could be several years of what Romero did in 2011 (4 WAR)
Burnett is a 4 WAR pitcher
he’s topped it three times, and has a peak of 5.5 WAR. that doesn’t grow on trees.
Drabek is essentially Burnett with less strikeouts & walks.
fyi – ricky romero has a career 107 ERA+
I’m sure that’ll, but just thought it was interesting
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 6, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
Moves
Sure sometimes a move is made to pick up place holder, I understand that. But to make a deal hoping to put more buts in the Rogers Center not only wont work , but does not make sense. Making trades for under valued assets that can be used right away,traded for another greater assets, or turn into drafts picks is what I am talking about.
Very happy with the offseason
Sure, it’s not like the Red Sox offseason, but the Blue Jays did what was necessary for the long term. I like it.
Speaking of the June Draft...
Ya I know – no one was speaking of it – but since I am now…
2010 11th OVERALL Deck McGuire
2011 21st OVERALL
2010 34th OVERALL Aaron Sanchez
2011 35th OVERALL
2010 38th OVERALL Asher Wojciechowski
2011 46th OVERALL
2011 53rd OVERALL
2011 57th OVERALL
2010 61st OVERALL Griffin Murphy
2010 69th OVERALL Kellen Sweeney
2011 77th OVERALL
2010 80th OVERALL Justin Nicolino
2011 84th OVERALL
Heck – we should be able to get at least a few shiny trinkets given this draft is supposed to have over “70 first round quality picks.”
OOOPPPSSS!
2010 38th OVERALL Noah Syndergaard
2010 41st OVERALL Asher Wojciechowski
The rest is correct . Serves me right for hitting the single malt beforee I wrote it!
Signing free agents isn’t the way to go and AA knows this. You’re either paying way too much for way too long or you’re paying millions on aging players who won’t bridge the gap towards the better teams in the AL Beast.
But if Snider and Arencibia tear the place up and we’re in contention come transfer deadline, we might just see AA flip some of his lesser prospects in a win now move.
We know AA isn’t afraid of flipping prospects. He got Escobar, didn’t he? Rajai Davis was also a win now move, though obviously not as high profile.
ask the yankess how signing free agents have turned our for them the last 15 years.
AA got Escobar for an aging ss not a prospet. Raji Davis was a “we need a lead off hitter” type move. More so then a win now move.
I found a delivery in my flaw
by syc on Feb 6, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Rajai Davis wasn't a win now move, he was a don't forfeit every game because you don't have a CF move
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
ceiling is
brett gardner
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 7, 2011 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
Money saved from the Vernon contract?
I’d like to see what AA plans on doing with the savings on Wells’ contract; if it was just to fatten the Roger’s books, then it’s a complete shame; he should be using the money to sign some of our picks in the next draft; how do you think he should be spending it?
Next Year's Draft
We might even keep our first round pick if we decide to sign type a’s next off season this way..
Except without winning where will the attendance to drive the payroll increase come from?
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I'm glad we stayed the course
and didn’t try to fast track. AA is showing patience and is wisely positioning the team for a lenghty competitive run. Could we have signed Manny, yeah I suppose. But I’m just glad we didn’t trade any important prospects to try to win today.
I’ll go on to say that I don’t forsee us besting last years record. We may struggle a bit but the next few seasons should be very interesting.
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
I actually think we have a chance to be better than last year. And I think the Rays and Yankees are considerably worse. So there you go… Playoffs.
I expect Marcum’s loss to be offset by a better 5th starter, Arencibia has a chance to be almost as good as Buck was. Our bullpen was average, and I think it is much better and deeper this year. Davis is perhaps not as good as Wells, but brings something different to the table and is a defensive upgrade. Snider is due to breakout. And any regression from Bautista should be offset by a return to better production from Lind and Hill.
This is not a bad group. I guess the big question is whether they should have invested in Manny/Vlad instead of Encarnacion. I think AA is gambling that EE will produce at the same level as Manny/Vlad, and it may end up being a good gamble.
Need 3B
I think AA did a great building up the bull pen and has plenty of depth regarding pitching. However, the Jays need a 3B….EE sucks and moving Hill to 3rd is not a good idea.
Maybe Kelly Gruber can come out of retirement….lol
Tom Stewart
Nothing Intrigues Me about any of the available Free Agents
The only guy I see on the list who I might sign to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training is Joe Inglett. Decent defense, good speed, useful role player and sports a 0.00 ERA! (He pitched one inning for the Brewers last year in a blow-out and got Brandon Phillips to pop-out, Orlando Cabrera to groundout, and Joey (MVP) Votto to flyout to CF!)
At worst, Inglett becomes back-up and depth in the minors; at best, he is more versatile as a backup than Patterson.
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Feb 6, 2011 12:18 AM EST reply actions
Let me update that
At worst, Inglett becomes back-up and depth in the minors; at best, he is more versatile as a backup than Patterson or McCoy. I’d rather have Inglett on my 40-man than Mike McCoy.
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Feb 6, 2011 12:29 AM EST up reply actions
I really don't understand
We’re all drawing this conclusion that signing players like Manny Ramirez are going to add 5 wins? Really?
Ramirez had a WAR of 1.3 with the Dodgers last year, and 0.2 with the White Sox. He would presumably be replacing Encarnacion, who had a WAR of 1.6 last year, and is much less likely to regress.
The other players mentioned have similar numbers. My point is quite literally…these players would not make our team better.
Furthermore, when we signed AJ Burnett and Frank Thomas and BJ Ryan, people still didn’t come out to Jays games. The argument that AA should sign somebody to “ensure that people go to Jays games” is misguided as well.
There really is zero reason to sign these guys!
Encarnacion wouldn't have had a 1.6 WAR as a DH
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I'm generally happy except for 3B/OF
Rivera starting in the OF gives me the creeps. A one-year stopgap player at 3B with a good glove and average OBA would help me relax.
Considering they've made no move to extend him long term according to his agent
Bautista is the stopgap.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Or the Jays are waiting to see what Jose does this year before offering him a fat contract
by Defense Counts! on Feb 6, 2011 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
Except that their fat contract will be competing against everyone else's fat contract
and I don’t see an effort to improve attendance, which the front office has said will be the determining factor in increasing payroll, and without a payroll increase where will the fat contract money come from?
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I don’t deny that this is going to be a tough year and that we are going to be hard pressed to finish 0.500. But not another 100 loss prediction by Dick Griffin again? Didn’t he learn anything from last year about predicting 100 losses?
He's the former Expo PR guy!!! He told me so... many many many many times
PR guys are never wrong. EVER.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Feb 6, 2011 7:26 AM EST up reply actions
I actually look forward to this season
expecting lots of good games in the AL east
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 6, 2011 11:30 AM EST reply actions
And Sportsnet will probably televise those games
instead of the one the Jays are playing.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Too funny.
and sadly true. But even those games might be in for some stiff compatition from Poker and Darts.
So what I am gathering from all of this is that practically everyone is happy with the offseason, just to varying degrees. Amazing how everyone on the same side of an argument can cause so much heated conversation
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Now to contradict my extreme pessimism...
This article on Yahoo Sports claims that the Rangers are trying to deal Michael Young. The frontrunners are the Angels and the Rockies according to the article. If AA were to swoop in and acquire Young, the Jays would be taken care of at 3B (how is his defense?), which would allow us to tell whatever clown we have playing right field to GTFO, and plant Bautista there.
On a similar note, has there been any consensus on who will man the hot corner for Toronto?
Here is a link to the article for those interested:
http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AlyWB.2Sig41EfMK58LZgWkBbgM6?slug=ti-youngrangers020711
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 6, 2011 6:34 PM EST reply actions
Isn’t Young signed for 3 more seasons and would potentially block Lawrie… and if not then he has to play either 1b/DH?
I don’t see it happening.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Yeah that’s true, and by the time Lawrie develops, Young might not be worth his contract. So yeah… ignore this.
by scrambles the death dealer on Feb 6, 2011 6:52 PM EST up reply actions
Its a thought, just not one Im sure is pursued, With the way people hated having Overbay play first because he didn’t provide a big enough bat, imagine having Young there… or even worse, at DH.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
If we trade for Young that's a pretty strong signal that Bautista is gone after the year
which frees up a corner outfield spot for Lawrie.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
How?
Could be a strong sign for wanting to accomodate Jose and play him at the RF.
Not that it’s a good reason to trade for Young…
Festina Lente
This year it would accommodate Jose in RF
Where would the payroll come from next year (or this year, for that matter) to pay for both when AA has been pretty clear that payroll will be driven by attendance?
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
We're not advocating trading for Young
Just saying your signal is flawed. Possibly they’d like to see how Jose starts off this year before trying to lock him up.
This assumes Jose is willing to negotiate mid-season
Many players aren’t, although off the top of my head I don’t remember Jose saying one way or the other. Anyways, if Jose starts off the season strong, isn’t that even less of an incentive for him to extend? All of a sudden he’ll have multiple years of performance to build a huge contract out of instead of one.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Not necessarily
Jose has indicated he`d like to stay in TO.
Ya
all indentations say he wants to play in Toronto
If you can't pay em' trade em' and pay for someone else
I see 2 potential moves that might involve Young and the Jays
1. The Rangers trade Young to the Rockies and acquire Jose Lopez. AA moves in, picks up Lopez (for Rivera?) and he play 3B for us until Lawrie is ready.
2. (And the one I would really like) The Rangers will not deal with the Angels because they are in the same division, so AA aquires Young for one of our extra pitchers + ?. AA then flips him plus $ (as he had prearranged all along) to the Angels for a top prospect.
by leonard euler on Feb 6, 2011 8:11 PM EST up reply actions
i don't think the angels would want to even discuss a trade with us for at least 3 years
not after all the crap they got
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 6, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
The Jays would make this an awesome offseason by doing one thing, and one thing only:
Sign this man. He says he’ll play wherever he can get a major league job.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
by Jevant on Feb 7, 2011 8:36 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Carlos Delgado returning as a Blue Jay?
I heard that Delgado would like to return to the majors in his pursuit of 500 home runs (he’s 27 shy). Would he be a good fit for the Jays? Yes, it would take some at bats away from Lind and/or EE. I know it would bring some excitement to the team and most likely bring more fans in the stands…but is it worth our while to pursue him?
If I recall people were concerned about his ability to field… even at 1st base..
ANd if that was the case since AA has expressed a desire to have players that can rotate around the 1B/DH spot that may be problematic.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
rather have
Matt Stairs!
To Infinity. And BEYOND!!!
by YunelTheLazyLatino on Feb 7, 2011 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
I am happy with the team's offseason.
I’m also more optimistic about their chances this season than most. The AL East will be tough for all of the teams in it not just the Jays… why do people only seem to count being in the division against the Jays? That’s just not realistic thinking. The other divisions are also looking more competitive so there will be less of an advantage for one of their teams to steal the wildcard by playing more divisional games against weaker teams.
I believe the Jays will be very competitive for a wildcard spot THIS YEAR. Look at starting pitching… the top three (Romero/Morrow/Cecil) compare well with anyone. The next two spots in the rotation also compare well in the AL East:
Toronto – Drabek / Rzepczynski / Litsch / Stewart
Boston – Lackey / Matsuzaka
NY – Nova / Mitre / Colon / Prior / Garcia
TB – Shields / Niemann
Baltimore – Tillman / Arrieta
The bullpen has been stocked with experienced and talented arms that compare well with anyone, with more young arms in reserve at AAA. Solid moves, when the Jays had already improved greatly by subtracting Tallet, Accardo and Gregg. Enough said.
The argument about the offense has been made throughout the comments here, but I’ll add my two cents anyway. Do people forget this team led MLB in HRs last season? They lost Wells and Buck and added JPA, Rivera, give full playing time to Travis Snider and EE, not to mention expected rebounds for Hill and Lind. Rajai Davis replaces Fred Lewis not Wells. Even if Bautista crops his numbers a bit the Jays should once again be right there with the leaders in HRs thanks to Snider, EE, Hill, Lind, JPA and Rivera.
As for EE, he hit 21 HRs in 332 ABs last season. The OBP will never be sexy but I’ll go on record and say if he is given the chance he outhits Manny and likely Vlad too this season.
On base issues were a problem but a lot of the bad team numbers can be attributed directly to Lind and Hill dropping their OBP to below their batting avgs of the previous season. Does anyone really think they aren’t in for a major rebound? Even Bill James has them projected much closer to their 2009 BA and OBP numbers.
The Jays might not rank at the top in OBP but they won’t be as far back this season, and overall they will be a more consistent and dangerous offense. Farrell has already indicated he will be more aggressive on the basepaths and if the added pressure on the pitcher leads to distraction and more mistakes, all the better for a power hitting team.
For all of you naysayers, where is the drastic weakness? Forget the hype you read on US sports sites, they will never give the Jays credit. Look at it for yourself and explain why the Jays are lacking so much compared to the rest of the AL East. I don’t buy it.
Bring on the season!
by transmogrifier on Feb 7, 2011 3:31 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you
I think they will be very competitive this year.
Rajai Davis isn't competing with Fred Lewis
He’s competing with Ellsbury, Granderson/Gardner, and Upton. That comparison is less favorable. Every position where we’re not obviously worse than our rivals, we have a question mark.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
You're not making your case
Even using your example of Rajai Davis I still don’t see where the Jays are appreciably weaker. I don’t see that he is that much of a lesser player than the others you compare him with, the others are just better known thanks to the markets they play in. Other than Upton who has more power but sacrifices avg. and OBP, they are all pretty similar. The largest difference I see is Davis is much cheaper. I would not take Ellsbury over Davis for the money Boston is paying him.
It’s the nature of fans to be critical of their own teams. Every team has players they are less than thrilled with, if you don’t think so go read the comments on their fan sites. To say the Jays have no chance because the sports websites say so is ridiculous, though. Their coverage is so biased to larger US markets it is virtually useless as a measure.
by transmogrifier on Feb 7, 2011 7:40 PM EST up reply actions
really?
Upton: career .340 wOBA (108 wRC+), career +5.7 UZR/150 in CF
Ellsbury: career .343 wOBA (103 wRC+), career +0.2 UZR/150 in CF
Gardner: career .341 wOBA (but .358 in 2010, 107 wRC+), career +22.4 UZR/150 in CF (!!!!) – his crazy UZR numbers are almost definitely a result of his ri-donk-ulous +67 UZR/150 in 42 games in 2008, but he’s probably around +8 to +12 UZR/150 based on his +22 RAR in 2009
Davis: career .326 wOBA (career 101 wRC+), career +2.6 UZR/150 in CF
as we can see, Davis is indeed appreciably worse than the other three primary CFs, though I must admit it is a whole lot closer than I imagined it would be.
Upton is definitely better – 3.5% better production offensively and about a third of a win defensively per season.
Ellsbury is actually very close to Davis’ career numbers; only 1% better offensively and about one-quarter of a win worse defensively. however, it must be noted that his career stats are brought down a lot by his injury-plagued 2010, and most projections call for about a 110 wRC+ from him, so he could/should be around 3-5% better offensively than Davis.
Gardner had a ridiculous 2010 and probably won’t be nearly as good as he was last season, but he’s also definitely better. based on my +10 RAR defensively, he’s 2% better offensively and three-quarters of a win better defensively per season.
I really wish SBN let you edit comments
the “really?” title was my gut instinct; that Davis would be far worse than the others, which he isn’t. he’s worse, but also far cheaper and is still useful. he’s certainly not what I’d call a long-term solution, but should the Jays find another OF (or a 3B, should they lock up JoBau) he’d be a fantastic 4th OF option.
Cheaper and worse isn't better, by definition.
It can only hope to be more efficient.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
My post was perhaps better directed at transmogrifier
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
fair enough
regarding efficiency, Davis is making about $3M/year, Gardner is making roughly the minimum, Ellsbury $2.5M, and Upton just under $5M. Davis was worth about $6M (by the maybe-flawed $5M/win rate) in 2010, Gardner $25M, Ellsbury about $12M in 2009, and Upton $17M.
they’re all young though, so efficiency is easy to come by
I didn't even think that Davis was getting paid more than two of those guys
That makes the “I would not take Ellsbury over Davis for the money Boston is paying him.” line even weaker.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Transmogrifier said it in the post you replied to
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
though
Ellsbury is in arb years while Davis is under salary control, so that will be a valid point (though wrong) in 2012 and 2013.
I'm not quite sure I understand how Davis has <3 years of service
but I assume he’s a super 2, since the A’s avoided arbitration with him last year. Either that or Cot’s is out of date.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
BR has 2.167 as of last year
by ‘salary control’ I meant fixed contract, as opposed to arbitraion, though. just to be clear.
That's the same number Cot's has
Both Davis and Ellsbury were eligible for arbitration and avoided going before an arbitrator by agreeing to a contract.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I think Cot's must be off by a year for both
Maybe those were their numbers as of last season.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Hey, never said Davis was better!
I just said he wasn’t that much lesser of a player. And he isn’t.
I was wrong about salary comparison though, thought Ellsbury was making much more than $2.4 million this year. Davis makes $2.5 million, but personally I would still take him over Ellsbury. Just my opinion. You can disagree, and probably do.
I don’t go deep into sabermetrics but keep in mind Davis comes from playing with one of the worst offensive teams in one of the worst hitting parks while Ellsbury has been playing for one of the best teams and in one of the best hitting parks. Comparing their numbers doesn’t really do justice.
by transmogrifier on Feb 7, 2011 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
The thing that makes Oakland a pitcher's park is the huge foul territory
and we have a lot of it in Toronto too. Plus it’s probably easier to beat out a grounder on grass than on turf because grass slows down the ball more, forcing the fielder to come in further to make a play. Also, Ellsbury is a lefty, which means his pull field is the deep part of the park, not the monster.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Let's be optimistic
Not much into the sabermetrics, but I think Davis can hold his own against the others and have a good season.
3% better win% than an 85 win team is a 90 win team
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
And when three teams have those +2.5 RAR players
that’s an 85 win team that’s not particularly close to a playoff spot.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
I thought you meant total value
because you used replacement, and defensive values are always expressed relative to average, as the replacement player is assumed to be an average defender who can’t hit well.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Ellsbury is 10 runs better per 700 PAs than Davis over their careers
making him 7.5 runs better per year in total, assuming the 2.5 runs per 150 defensive games is accurate.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
If you choose to give up performance at one position for money
then you have to make up that performance at another position. There’s no bonus wins at the end of a season because you intentionally didn’t spend your money on a better player.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
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