Hall of Fame debate
You guys have probably all heard enough about the debate around whether guys with alleged or proven PED backgrounds such as Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. I generally tune this out now as the debate will never end until the last of the current old guard of national sportswriters retires, or they somehow find a way to win and have these players inducted.
This week some notable items came up that I found interesting. First was an opinion posted by Buster Olney, a respected baseball writer for ESPN, who feels that accomplished PED users like Bonds should be inducted to the Hall of Fame and reference to their PED use added to their plaque. The other item was the retirement of former Blue Jay Carlos Delgado. As soon as Deglado retired, articles appeared lauding his career but lamenting that even with 473 HRs he falls just short of the Hall of Fame in their opinion.
I found myself wondering, what if Delgado had decided to use PEDs? Over the course of his already successful career he could very well have launched an additional 70-80 HRs or more and put himself very much in the same Hall of Fame discussion as the PED cheaters. He didn't and very likely will not be inducted, having very good numbers but not seen as enough.
So now I think back to Barry Bonds. Would he even be in the discussion for the Hall of Fame without his PED use, or would he have been another Carlos Delgado - great career but falling just short? I remember watching Bonds in his early Pirate days in the playoffs with Bobby Bonilla. He did not look anywhere near as big then. It's impossible to be certain when Barry started his PED program, but in looking at his career numbers one can certainly see a trend. During his first 7 years while with the Pirates, Bonds averaged 25 HRs a year, although the last three seasons saw a definite uptick. During his heyday over the next 12 years with the Giants, Bonds averaged 44 HRs a year. In 2005 Bonds was injured and barely played, and he averaged only 27 HRs over his last two seasons as age and perhaps public focus on his PED use took a toll.
Again, it's impossible to say exactly how many HRs Bonds gained thanks to PEDs, but there is no question he did gain. He finished his career with 762 HRs but if you reduce his career totals to an average of the early years and last couple of years - when he most likely was not using PEDs - you come up with 551 (21 years x 26 HR average plus 5 HR for 2005 when injured). Those HR numbers would likely have been good enough to get Bonds into the Hall of Fame anyway but certainly don't create the buzz of 762.
(more after the jump)
It's sad that prominent writers are championing the Hall of Fame cause of known cheaters when most would likely never have achieved enough for consideration without cheating. Bonds might have made it anyway but the others mentioned above like Manny and McGwire would not likely have made it without the extra help, their numbers would probably have been more similar to or less than Delgado's. Which apparently isn't enough.
In my mind, a cheater should never be recognized for their accomplishments. For one thing, no one can ever be sure what that person would have achieved without cheating. Very likely they would never have been be considered for such honours without taking the 'extra measures'. The other problem is the hypocritical message it sends out when a noted cheater is given such recognition. Basically it's saying "don't do it, it's bad for the sport and you will be caught" on the one hand, meanwhile on the other hand it's very clear that if you can get away with it not only will you make a lot more money but you have potential for immortalization in the Hall of Fame when you otherwise would not have. How is that good for baseball? People that celebrate the "purity of the game" should not send such mixed messages.
What do you think of Buster's proposal? Make your voice heard below.
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No way
I agree with you, transmogrifier. It is rediculous to induct these players into the Hall of Fame but then put an asterisk on their plaques saying that they cheated and that they may have not really been that great. I think that HoF museum should have a display on proven PED users and how they affected the game in the 90’s and 2000’s.
People caught doping in the Olympics don’t get a gold medal with an asterisk on it.
This isn't the Olympics
You are comparing apples and oranges.
by Alan F. on Apr 15, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
But any such note needs to be backed by proof
Allegations are not enough.
Of course, the obvious fallout is that no star player will ever admit to taking at any time. It’s hard to walk the line between wanting the truth and punishing the transgressors. Go too hard on the punishment side and no one will admit anything unless forced to and the truth will never be known. Go easy to get the truth, and the cheaters get away with cheating.
Problem is, we don't know who used.
We know who we think used, but we will never know the complete picture. We don’t know if Delgado used. So the choice is to either ban a whole generation from the hall, ban only those with evidence against them, or don’t ban anyone. None of the choices are very attractive.
by upstate jay fan on Apr 15, 2011 1:28 PM EDT reply actions
You make an excellent point
No one know who all used. When the tests were originally conducted, there were over 100 positive tests, which lead to the drug testing policy. Over the last couple of years, a couple of those names have surfaced (most notably A-Rod), but there is still about 100 names not revealed.
I've come full swing on this issue
It wouldn’t bother me to see guys like this in the hall, because let’s be honest – who the heck knows what half of the guys already in the hall have done to their bodies during their careers?
Bonds and Clemens I certainly have no problem with. The other four you listed might not deserve to be there regardless based on their career’s and the fact that there’s going to be an overflow of deserving players eligible in the coming years.
Unfortunately, if you ban anyone confirmed to have used steroids, that backlash is going to impact suspected users as well (which we’re already seeing), but is it fair to guys who were never proven to use steroids? How about guys that certainly did but weren’t proven to use? How about guys that are in the Hall already that have used?
I think there are far too many question marks regarding steroid users and their suspected use to let it impact Hall of fame selection.
by masterkembo on Apr 15, 2011 1:35 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The only one I see on his list that is least deserving is Pettite.
I think a good case could be made for the others.
Maybe, but looking at career WAR (which obviously isn't the be all, end all) it looks like a huge logjam by the time these guys are eligible
Next year, McGwire will be sitting 8th in career WAR of eligible Hall players (behind the likes of Palmeiro, Raines, Larkin, Edgar Martinez, etc.) There’s a good chance that only Larkin gets elected in…with Bagwell having an outside chance.
Then for the 2013 ballot, you have Bonds, Clemens, Schilling and Biggio all added. Assuming Bagwell isn’t elected in 2012, that puts McGwire 11th of eligible players in career WAR, and Sosa 12th. And a lot of guys have steroid implications – I’m not sure that anyone gets elected of this group, but lets assume that two get elected.
For 2014, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Mussina, Glavine and Jeff Kent are all eligible. Assuming Larkin and 2 others are already elected, that pushes McGwire to 13th and Sosa to 14th on the WAR list. Maddux and Glavine almost certainly go in, and we’ll say one more (but that’s pushing it). Maybe Thomas, maybe someone like Biggio.
For 2015, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Gary Sheffield are added. Assuming 6 were elected over the past 3 years, McGwire falls to 14th and Sosa to 15th. Pedro and Johnson go in, everyone else, probably not.
Griffey and Pettite go on the ballot in 2016. Pettite is below McGwire and Sosa. Who will be sitting in the same place.
Manny is added in 2017 and will sit roughly 10th on that WAR list. McGwire, Sosa and Pettitte are still a long ways from getting in.
Their aren’t enough players elected into the Hall each year for guys like McGwire, Sosa, Manny and Pettitte to get in, especially with the upcoming logjam.
Im going to take this little moment to get on my soapbox and rant about the HoF in general.
If player A doesn’t have good enough votes to get in but can wait 5+ years and then accumulate it. That is absolutely crazy. I think it is so friggin stupid that it can go down this way. If he is good enough to go then go if not sit out, the only reason someone shouldn’;t be allowed in if people believe they are a HoF is because there are 4 better people eligible at the same time. Even then let them go.
Leaving people on the ballot to slowly gain votes over the years is an awful idea. People get nostalgic and automatically will remember more fondly as time goes by. Complete hogwash.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
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I think the baseball writers like it this way
their egos are fed because they feel they have even more control. Not only do they get to control who gets into the HOF, they get to decide who is a first balloter , second balloter, etc.
by upstate jay fan on Apr 15, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Bill Simmons tweeted it best
Congrats to Bert Blyleven for having a great 2010 season and finally doing enough to make the Baseball Hall of Fame.
by craig in calgary on Apr 15, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
+1
"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman
by Jeremiah Stanghini on Apr 15, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Its a damn joke. And makes a mockery of the hall
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
At the same point, baseball philosophy evolves. Walks used to be highly devalued, and now OBP is very strongly considered. Guys who played in small markets for most of their careers can take years to get the recognition they deserve. Guys who play in the shadow of even greater players can lose out by constant association.
I’m not saying that making a guy wait 13 years to make a point isn’t ridiculous, but making everything a single vote five years after retirement really ties the Hall criteria into the dynamics of that years and prevailing wisdom. A player who was a jerk who deserves to go in could be left out just because he torqued off enough writers and the insult is still fresh.
Very true
Also, writers don’t like to put more than a few names on any one ballot. If you happen to have retired at the same time as two or three inner-circle type hall of famers, you could be left off.
I think the bigger problem is when guys like Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker don’t even get enough votes to stay on the ballot and try to accumulate them
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
To me thats the only reason you should be left off if people think you are good enough to make it. If they insist on having the maximum 4 per year and there are 4 better then you in the current year then sure wait a year.
But to me Induct them. If they deserve it let them in, no yearly limit. Just let them go.
Regardless Its something that I know will never happen regardless
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
by JohnnyG on Apr 16, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
regardless regardless
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
For your argument, you certainly make your WAR the "be all end all"
MaGwire impacted baseball as much or more than most of the others you’ve listed.
Why am I not surprised.
And I’m sure you’ll be prepared to post some kind of sabermetrics to validate your point. What they won’t show though is that he was one of the more feared hitters during his time. Injuries cost him a lot of lost time or people might have been talking about the 700 or so homers that he might have hit. Add in that at a time when baseball’s popularity was low, the homerun race between him and Sosa helped bring the fans back.
well injuries aren't anyone's fault, but they've cost plenty of people Hall tickets
it’s possible that voters will agree with you on subjective reasons for voting, but they didn’t for Jack Morris and I honestly don’t think (based on completely subjective evidence, I don’t even know where I’d look for objective evidence) that voters tend to think that way. actually, there’s Jim Rice, so you could have a point.
looking at his numbers, I also had no idea he was so awesome before his two huge seasons. that said, it seems like his best Hall chance is based on his counting stats (1400 RBIs, almost 600 HRs) but I think the voters feel (ignoring my personal opinion, especially since I’m too young to have really seen him play) that he wouldn’t have compiled those kinds of counting stats without roiding, whether or not that’s realistic.
I also think kembo was just using WAR as a starting point; even if it’s not a perfect statistic, it at least is objective and takes into account both hitting and fielding in a meaningful way, which counting stats do not
I agree with you
My points were subjective, and only time will tell if they take those things into account. I honestly don’t like the HOF process as it stands. I think JohnnyG actually does excellent rants on it.
One player who, imo, got in on subjectve reasons was Ozzie Smith. His batting stats were not eye popping or really anything to write home about, but the man played some serious defence. Best I’ve ever seen.
You are probably right in regards to kembo and WAR. I am not so good with sabermetrics (my bad). Hard to teach an older dog new tricks…
haha, no I agree, I really don't like the way the Hall operates
I can’t verify this, but Ozzie Smith apparently once won the anti-Triple Crown – fewest RBI, HR, lowest AVG among qualified players. if it’s true, it was probably in 1981 when – get this, he led the MLB in PAs with a .222 AVG (.549 OPS!!!), 0 HRs and 21 ribbies. if you like defensive metrics, though, FanGraphs has him at 24 wins over his career in the field (that’s ridiculous)
His defence was ridiculous
Think Johnny Mac amplified. All I can say is, if there is a chance to see some highlights of his, don’t miss them. Simply amazing. As for his offence, couldn’t help but laugh at what you pointed out, because it’s probably true. He only became a decent hitter very late in his career.
Ozzie Smith
Ozzie Smith was actually a league-average hitter for a shortstop throughout his career. He gains a + 147 run positional adjustment (based on how much worse the average shortstop is at hitting than other positions) and was 140 runs below average as a batter. Add in the value of his baserunning (82 runs) and his ability to avoid grounding into double plays (27 runs) and he provided significantly more offence than the average shortstop.
Add in the otherworldly value of his defence (based on both first-hand accounts and statistical mumbo-jumbo) and Ozzie’s Hall case is actually a lot more solid than people tend to expect.
They see very mediocre rate stats (.262 / .337 / .328), which do not account for his 580 steals (against just 148 caught stealing) or the fact that many of the other shortstops in baseball at that time (with exceptions like Cal Ripken, Alan Trammell, Robin Yount and, a little later, Barry Larkin) were even worse hitters than Ozzie was.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
that's true
he wasn’t really all that awful once he learned how to hit. that said, his first 7 seasons he had a slash line of .238/.311/.298, with 245 SB to 65 CS (admittedly pretty excellent). after those first 7 seasons, though: .277/.354/.348 – that’s very respectable for an SS, and especially given his defense. I also wasn’t trying at all to make a case against him being in the Hall, but the anti-Triple Crown thing is pretty funny
Right on cue, Jayson Stark posts an article on this.
For those interested:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings110415
He is also asking for feedback.
Its going to be a sticky thing for sure. There are going to be 3 distinct situations that are going to be interesting to watch
1) Alleged users that we believed used – Example – McGuire, Bonds, Sosa etc – We are already seeing how the voting is going for McGuire
2) Alleged users that admitted use but no public tests – Examples – A-Rod, Pettite
3) Players found guilty of using an illegal substance – Manny
Personally I would vote yes on players (provided they had the numbers) who had an impact on the sport. I think the water is too muddy with no rules in the old days about using vs unclear testing and everything else. If a player had the impact required on the sport to get into the hall I think he gets in, If he is a confirmed user then maybe it gets mentioned but I dont know.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
I enjoyed Stark's article posted above
of course it helps that I agreed with him, but still. he makes an interesting point that steroids is fairly analogous to speed users and segregation
he also thinks the Drabeks will be the best father-son pitching duo in history, so that might have swayed me a little more.
2) Alleged users that admitted use but no public tests – Examples – A-Rod, Pettite
I don’t think there’s any alleged here. These players admitted to using them.
Well in some instances players came out and said ‘sorry’ but didn’t say what they were apologizing for.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Cheating
You know, the problem with the cheating issue is that there are plenty of notorious cheaters in the HoF. Gaylord Perry wrote a book on how he cheated and was still inducted. How good a pitcher would he have been without his spitter?
I used to be conflicted on this issue, and now I’ve gone full circle. I believed if you’ve been banned from baseball, you are equally banned from the HoF. However, if you haven’t been, I have no problems with a player being elected to the Hall who used steriods. However, and this is the key, HoF voting is subjective. So I have no problems with a voter choosing not to vote for someone into the HoF because they believe steriods were the difference between a good career and a HoF deserving one.
Barry Bonds' accusers stated that he began using during the offseason between '98 and '99
because he was jealous of the attention that McGwire and Sosa were getting, when he, and most other players, knew they were cheating to achieve what they did. I believe this 100%, because his body and head didn’t become oversized until 1999/2000.
If that is true, then he was already going to be a shoo-in Hall of Famer. He was in the 400-400 and 40-40 clubs. He was also, barring a catastrophic injury, a lock for 500-500 as well.
I know everyone hates Bonds, because he’s a jerk and he cheated, but to act like steroids were the only thing that made him a great player is ridiculous. He was one of the most talented players to ever play the game. He had the best batting eye I’ve ever seen, and one of the quickest bats in major league history. He was also an incredibly gifted fielder in his prime. He was already the best player in the league for several years before he started using.
I think guys like McGwire and Sosa, who you could argue wouldn’t have accomplished anything without steroids, because they used their whole careers, don’t belong. But Barry Bonds was already an all-time great before he cheated.
If a voter were to take a moral stance saying they will never vote for anyone who ever cheated, then that’s justifiable. But if it’s not a moral stance, and more a questioning of the legitimacy of their accomplishments, Barry Bonds unquestionably belongs in the Hall of Fame.























