Swinging at the First Pitch
by Tom Dakers on Apr 27, 2011 2:15 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintGhostrunner, as masterkembo mentioned, has a great post up about Yunel Escobar swinging at first pitches. It sadden me, because my topic for the morning was going to be 'swinging at first pitches', since we had a discussion on swinging at first pitches in the game thread a couple of days ago. Drew had a line that I relate to:
One nagging legacy of my time in the baseball dark ages is my personal unease when I see somebody swing at the first pitch. Mostly because I'm become so pro-walk (probably to a fault) and it stands to reason that nobody ever walked on the first pitch.
Drew speaks for most of us that have followed baseball for a while. There was a time, not long ago, when TV announcers felt that taking a walk was basically wasting a time up at bat. That if you are a batter and a man, you'd swing. Most of us knew that walk had a value. If one is offered a walk, you should take it.
So some of us had this idea that you should never swing at the first pitch, or at least very rarely. And course we had this argument, in the game thread about that. As with most arguments in the game thread, real data is ignored and opinions become intrenched to the point where it is comedy.
As Pat Hentgen told us, back here, that the first pitch of an at bat is the most important, or at least a close second to the 1-1 pitch:
The 0-1 count, is amazing how you can really drastically change a guy's batting average against you by just getting ahead. It sounds easy, throw the ball down the middle and let it work a little bit, but major league hitters, they'll ambush you a little. They know you want to get ahead. They're ready to hit 0-0 and that is when you really start to get a little too fine and you go 1-0.
Then we were told the other night that for 'good' hitters, like Troy Glaus and Manny Ramirez, falling behind 0-1 isn't a bit deal. So I thought I'd look it up.
Yunel Escobar: As Drew says, Yunel has done a great job, this year, hitting .455 swinging at the first pitch. In his career, on the first pitch, he has hit .354 with a .496 slugging average. After falling behind 0-1 he hit .265/.314/.357 for a OPS+ of 76.
Troy Glaus: In his career he has hit .332 with a .610 slugging average on the first pitch. When he falls behind 0-1, his career numbers are .229/.292/.424 for an tOPS+ of 68. Obviously falling behind 0-1 puts him in a bad spot.
Manny Ramirez: Career on the first pitch: .377, .744 slugging. After falling behind 0-1: .267/.331/.487 for a tOPS+ of 64.
Derek Jeter: Career first pitch: .380, with .564 slugging. After falling behind 0-1, .286/341/.400 for a tOPS+ of 78. He hits pretty decent after falling behind. Not so good that you would want him to fall behind but not terrible.
Wade Boggs: Now Wade was famous for letting the first pitch go by. He hit .362/.476 on the first pitch. After falling behind 0-1: .286/.333/.373 for a tOPS+ of 64. Surprises me, I thought he would hit better after 0-1.
Jose Bautista: Career first pitch: .344, .633 slugging. After 0-1, .208/.283/.365 for a tOPS+ of 60. Course I don't know that he has seen a first pitch strike this year yet. Oh he has, first pitch this year .714 batting average, 2.429 slugging. That is on just 7 first pitch swings. After 0-1, .250/..368/.500.
Anyway, the point is (well if there is a point) is that batters, should go to the plate with a plan, if, the first pitch they get, they like and it is in the strike zone, they should be ready to hit it. Course I believe the same on almost any count, if they get a pitch they think they can hit, go for it. Maybe not so much on 3-0.
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Can’t pull it up at work but picture my slow clap .gif here.
Thanks!
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Diddn't know that
I think part of it must be the fact that we were witness to VW swinging at almost every first pitch but diddn’t know the great hitters had lines like that. Makes you think.
I was going to throw Vernon in
Career first pitch: .330, .579 slugging
After 0-1: .252/.279/..415. Always has been pretty much the classic first pitch fastball hitter.
Whenever I read of first pitch swinging, the first thing to pop into my head are Vernon’s first pitch swings resulting in popup outs and then him yelling as he goes down the line to first before the ball gets caught. I guess I didn’t watch him enough or just saw him on bad days because I couldn’t believe that first-pitch swing line for him at first, and I still have a hard time believing it.
We remember EVERY time Wells popped up on a first pitch, because we always expected Wells to pop up on the first pitch, and we’ve probably commented about it to someone we’re watching the game with or whatever, further propagating the misconception. However, we don’t necessarily remember when he would do something good on the first pitch because then we’re just thinking “sweet! Wells hit a homerun” At that point, who cares what the pitch count is?
Does that make sense…?
Pitchers want to get ahead so they often throw the fastball to get ahead
and set up their other pitches
It’s also often to either side of the plate up in the zone. Not quite a 3-0 get it over fastball, but usually used to establish either the inside or outside edge of the strike zone for the at bat. I’d guess that outside of 3-0, the first pitch is the most common pitch thrown for a strike.
the first pitch is the most common pitch thrown for a strike
This why I don’t mind the Jays swinging at the first pitch. Against the really good pitchers, it’s often the only decent pitch they’d see in an at-bat. Of course, the important bit, which Tom mentions, is that the batter should be looking for a particular pitch in a particular location and only swing if that pitch matches the plan.
It's true that many hitters do well when they swing at the first pitch and put it in play
but don’t forget that if you swing and miss at or foul off a pitch that would otherwise be a ball you’re giving the pitcher a significant advantage (0-1) relative to the advantage you’d have otherwise (1-0).
the guy i always think of as taking the first pitch is Chuck Knoblauch. .331 / .345 / .440 on first pitches (wow, he got hit by a lot of pitches!); After 0-1: .271 / .328 / .370
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
relative to the advantage you’d have otherwise (1-0)
That’s assuming the pitch isn’t called a strike. If it is, not only are you in the same hole as if you’d swung on the pitch, you might have been looking at the best pitch to hit of the at-bat.
that's why I qualified the statement
if you swing and miss at or foul off a pitch that would otherwise be a ball
I was just saying that there are times when a batter will take a pitch, not simply because he wants to take a pitch, but because it’s out of the zone. Furthermore, if you don’t think you can do much with a pitch, why swing at it? There is a subset of first pitches that are strikes and there is a set of pitches (mostly comprised of that subset of strikes, though also probably some balls) that can probably be hit well. Unless the pitch falls within that second category, it probably isn’t a good idea to swing.
What’s really amazing is that hitters are able to mentally break all these factors down 0.2 seconds after the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand. Presumably, this is also part of why batters hit better (on balls in play) on 0-0 counts — they don’t have to worry about whether the pitch is a strike, just whether or not they think they can it.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
player injury days
off topic, sorry.
wondering, does anyone know where you could find stats on player injury days, per team? Thinking how the Jays would rank on that list, somewhere near the top.
I guess it really depends on the situation.
For instance, I sometimes get annoyed when the batters hack at the 1st pitch when the pitcher is struggling with his command, and its 2 outs with runners on base. Sometimes it works (very well I might add), but when it doesn’t it’s really frustrating to watch since it’s like helping the pitcher get out of a jam.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
I read/saw somewhere
That Joe Mauer had swung at something like 6 first pitches ever.
by craig in calgary on Apr 27, 2011 6:08 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The point is batters should go up with a plan and swing with confidence.
The confidence you get when you shave with a Gillette Fusion ProGlide. (does that meet your quota for the week, Tom?)
I don't mind
swinging at the first pitch if the batter goes up there with a plan. By that I mean he’s looking for a certain pitch in a certain location. If he goes up there thinking fastball middle in, I don’t like him swinging at a fastball low and on the corner. He’s better to let it pass and be called a strike than to not get a good swing on it. First pitch isn’t the time to protect. The batter still has to recognize the pitch though.
I would assume most players avg on first pitch is higher than other counts because they are swinging at the pitch they want.
Swinging on first pitch
I Like when they do it when it results in a hit, not when it results in an out.
Profound, I know.
by craig in calgary on Apr 27, 2011 6:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I would venture a guess
that there arent any players who are taking a first pitch for the sake of taking it, some just choose to be especially specific with what theyre looking for on the first pitch.
Also, i think there’s something to be said for having a look/getting a feel for a pitchers delivery, especially the first time you see him of the day.
I agree taking just to take is silly, but i have no problem with taking everything aside from a fastball in a specific location, which is what i think most of these notorious ‘takers’ do.
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