What to do with Jo-Jo Reyes?
by Tom Dakers on Apr 28, 2011 11:17 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintJo-Jo Reyes hasn't had a very good start to the season. Before spring training started, I really didn't think he had a chance to make the team. I'm not a fan of the idea that you keep a guy just because he is out of options, but Reyes had a good spring and I saw him have a good game against the Yankees near the end of spring. Two guys made the pitching staff just because they were out of options, Reyes and David Purcey. Purcey's gone now, though it might be worth noting that he has pitched 4.1 innings for the A's and has given up no hits, 1 walk and struck out 3. Maybe 2.1 innings was too small a sample to give up on him? But he did have a lousy spring and John Farrell had to have lost confidence in him (insert Gillette joke here).
I think it's safe to say us fans have lost what ever confidence we had in Jo-Jo. He is 0-2 in 5 starts, with a 5.48 ERA (helped along by that iffy error last night. In 23 innings he has walked 9, struck out 19 and only given up 1 home run. All those things sound pretty good. The not so good side is: he has given up 33 hits in those 23 innings. The BABIP gods hate him to a .400 rate, helped along by a 21.3% line drive rate, but even so, you would think more balls would find gloves. He is getting no luck on balls in play, but on the flip side he is getting a lot of luck on keeping the ball in the park.
FIP likes him: 3.64. xFIP doesn't hate him: 4.66. Makes sense, he isn't walking way too many guys and he isn't giving up home runs.
He had made 5 starts for us. One was good: 7 innings, 1 earned. One was poor: 7 innings, 4 earned. Three were terrible: 3.1, 3.0 and 2.2 innings. We have won 2 of his 5 starts.
What would I do? Likely DFA him. He lives on a (Gillette) razor thin edge when things are going well. He has to pound the bottom of the strike zone. He has to get the calls at the bottom of the strike zone. If either of those things don't happen, things go bad quick.
Who would I call up? Right now? Brad Mills. He has a 2.67 ERA in 4 PCL starts. He has thrown 27 innings, given up 21 hits, 8 walks, has 19 strikeouts and has only given up 1 home run. That isn't easy in the PCL. I think, if the Jays were patient with him, he could be a decent 5th starter. If you care, I think he is in his last option year, so next year we'd be in the same boat with him as we are with Jo-Jo.
If not him, Scott Richmond is doing ok in Vegas too, 3 starts, 4.85 ERA and he has had some success with us. He has had pretty large splits but then some pitchers do and have successful careers.
You could also move Carlos Villanueva, who has been great in the long relief role, into the rotation. He went 3.1 last night and didn't appear to be straining himself. I would kind of like to leave him in that role but if he can pitch like this as a starter, he'd be more valuable to the team.
Zach Stewart is a possibility too, but he isn't on the 40-man (though if you DFA Reyes, we have a spot) and you would have to shut him down before the end of the season. He does have a 2.92 ERA in New Hampshire after 4 starts.
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are we assuming that there is no chance scrabble could crack the rotation? He is the killer lefty in the bullpen
I was assuming that....
he hasn’t gone much more than an inning in a while. I like him as a starter, but he is our only lefty in the pen at the moment.
They don't need
a 5th starter much in the next 2-3 weeks with the way the off days are set up. Reyes could be skipped 2 of the next 3 turns in the rotation.
Personally that’s what I would do, give him 2 more starts, and if he is still not pitching well, turf him and call up either Mills or Richmond.
I have my doubts whether the Jays will be skipping guys this early in the year though.
I think that's not a good idea
with the Jays’ young starters. They could really use the extra days off.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Thats why
I said I doubt the Jays would do it. Personally I hate how much pitchers are babied, should be able to go every 5 days all year.
by sportsguy2905 on Apr 28, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
okay, tough guy
it has nothing to do with being “babied” – teams are wisely protecting their assets and investments and would be foolish to do otherwise.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
tough guy?
That’s real mature. Great leadership there.
I call it babying, you call it something else. Agree to disagree. I understand why they do it, I just don’t like it. No need to start name calling.
by sportsguy2905 on Apr 28, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
not name-calling
I just find it funny how often fans complain about professional athletes being “soft” or “babied”.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
yeah get they out there every five days, make them pitch the whole damn game too!
by scrambles the death dealer on Apr 28, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
i wonder whether the rope Jo-Jo has been given is partly due to the lack of top pitching prospects who are ready to step in to a major league role. I have a feeling that if there was another Drabek pitching well in AA or AAA they would just DFA Reyes to make space.
Mills and Richmond are good pieces, but they are not key parts of the organization’s future any more than Reyes is. As soon as Cecil gets his act together he will be back in the rotation and none of Reyes or Richmond or Mills will have a place.
by mike in boston on Apr 28, 2011 12:01 PM EDT reply actions
I have a feeling that if there was another Drabek pitching well in AA or AAA
So, Zach Stewart? He pretty much matched Drabek last year and is off to a good start again this year.
by masterkembo on Apr 28, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
you’re right … i think it’s telling that they have not even considered bringing him up. if they were speaking honestly when they said he had as good a camp as Drabek and that they ranked him as highly as Drabek, then it’s puzzling that he has not been brought up (yet) to replace Reyes or Cecil.
we’ll see how this shakes out over the next month, but AA can’t hang on to Reyes forever at the expense of both wins and prospects. if they think Stewart can pitch at this level then they should cut their losses and cut ties with Jo-Jo.
by mike in boston on Apr 28, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
It isn't telling at all that they haven't brought Stewart up
they want to bring up the number of innings he can pitch in a season. It isn’t anymore telling than that they haven’t brought up Brett Lawrie,
i guess we'll see
if Reyes is still in the rotation at the expense of Stewart in June or July then that would be puzzling, given how high they were on Stewart.
my original point, however, was that one shouldn’t be too angered by Reyes’ continued presence in the rotation since he is arguably not blocking anyone at the moment.
by mike in boston on Apr 28, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say DFA
and try and trade him to someone to give him another shot, anything in return would be a bonus. Someone will probably be willing to give something up to get him, he has shown some of that potential people were talking about with the Jays
Mills probably deserves to be called up the most but it wouldn’t bother me if it was Richmond. I could see them going with Reyes until Cecil gets back and than DFA him.
Reyes
I’d go with Mills (Lefty to replace another lefty). Really I never really had any (Gillette) confidence in Reyes to begin with… he never struck me as much more then a spot on the 40 man that Atlanta needed to clear to complete the Escobar deal.
Really I get that he was out of options and thus you wanted to give him a look to ascertain what it is that you have or to build some trade value but what we have looks far too hittable and his less then stellar performances havn’t done anything to improve any trade value. I mostly just hope Cecil figures stuff out pronto and can get back up.
Related: I’m completely on the side that everyone of those runs last night should have been earned. Edwin did (IMO) the best that he could on that play and it shouldn’t have been an error.
If they feel Zach Stewart is ready, he should replace Jo-Jo without question. But only if they feel he's ready.
Failing that, I don’t hate the idea of giving Brad Mills a look while the opportunity is there to do so. Never know if you might get a decent 4th/5th starter there, he seems to have the potential for that. Any further down the list (i.e. Richmond), and I’d much prefer they just stick to the current hope that they catch lightning in a bottle with Jo-Jo.
I dunno, I think they’d want to have more then one lefty in the rotation. I really think the only true option to replace Reyes is either Mills or a returning Cecil.
I don't think they would really care if it's another lefty.
They would just go with the best option. Some teams don’t even have a lefty in their rotation, such as the Red Sox….
0 wins in the last 23 starts?
I know the fangraphs crowd tell me it’s not a starting pitchers job to actually win games, but enough is enough.
I’d rather see Zach Stewart do his thang.
by craig in calgary on Apr 28, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions
Bullpen?
We need a lefty in the bullpen besides Zep. Move him to the bullpen, stretch out Carlos and now we have two lefty’s. I bet Reyes would be effective for short periods of time.
I think you also make Janssen or Camp the long reliever.
Although I'm not a huge Mills fan
I’d rather see him start with Jo-Jo either DFA’d or placed in the pen than continuously see Jo-Jo start.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Dump Dotel
To remove all temptation that Farrell might have for pitching him against lefties, move JoJo to the pen as a middle inning LOOGY type guy, and bring up Mills. Promote Stewart to AAA to fill in for Mills.
Though I don’t mind giving JoJo a few extra starts. There’s a big difference between JoJo and Purcey. Purcey started to lose it late last year, and all through spring showed no signs of regaining the control he had mid last year. JoJo actually had a good spring. Last night, it seemed to me that he lost focus after that EE error (though I really think the error was on Lind, and Lind might agree with that) and could not regain it. He may be one of those guys who needs to be shepherded through a win with lots of mound visits and encouragement from the catchers.
Speaking of Purcey
He faced 14 batters in TO, gave up 3 hits and 4 walks
He’s faced 14 batters in Oakland, 0 hits and 1 walk
Small sample size and all that, but I hope he re-finds the strike zone in Oakland.
No love for Jo-Jo?
I’m surprised that no one’s really voting for keep Jo-Jo.
The way I see it this season is about developing our young talent more than anything. From what I hear the Jays are pretty high on Reyes’ arm and potential. So if it’s a choice between keeping him or bringing up guys like Mills or Richmond, who aren’t seen as high-upside guys, I’d rather keep going with Jo-Jo and see how he makes up.
The only guy from a developmental point of view that would excite me is Zach Stewart, but there’s no rush to bring him up so it’s not like Reyes is blocking him yet.
I’d like to see what the Jays can do with Reyes, one month is too soon to jump the gun when in all likelihood we will lose him otherwise.
Good points. I think I agree.
If Cecil comes back…I think that’s when JoJo has to get pushed back into the ‘Pen. I think it’s a little early to DFA him regardless.
I agree, if Cecil is ready to return then it’s a different story and a tougher call as he’s a high-value guy for us at the moment.
But as much as I feel for guys like Mills and Richmond who struggle to get a shot, I don’t think either of them are worth displacing Reyes at this point.
Let’s keep plugging away with Reyes, as he could turn into something special for us.
Mills is no better than Reyes
He is a fringe 5th starter at best.
Reyes is doing fine. His FIP looks good and he has clearly been unlucky on balls in play. None of the other options are really viable anyways.
Onions Baby Onions
Reyes has not been fine, he gives up way too many hits and is wildly inconsistent.
by scrambles the death dealer on Apr 28, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
on the other hand,
Jo-Jo’s home run rate is sure to regress, too, in the other direction. A guy with a 40% ground ball rate and a 40% fly ball rate can’t continue to give up just .4 HR/9 innings, which is what Jo-Jo has done so far. To put it in perspective, his HR/FB rate is currently 3.2%, which is ludicrously small, particularly in the AL East.
Giving up fewer hits will help, but giving up more home runs won’t. That’s why just looking at Jo-Jo’s FIP is very misleading because it suggests he has just been very unlucky. this is false. Jo-Jo has been both quite unlucky (on hits and runners stranded) and quite lucky (on home runs). His xFIP, which is FIP adjusted for league average home run rate, is 4.66, which isn’t horrible, but certainly isn’t anything to write home about.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
BABIP might regress, but if he keeps giving up line drives that won’t matter because he will keep giving up hits.
by scrambles the death dealer on Apr 28, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
a very compelling argument
continue to impress me with your logical superiority please
by scrambles the death dealer on Apr 28, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
it's sort of hard to make an argument
against a statement that was as self-refuting as yours. If his BABIP regresses, it will mean he is giving up less hits, so what you were saying is self-refuting.
In any event, Reyes is only giving up line drives at a 2% greater rate than league average, so even to the extent that not giving up line drives is a pitching skill, he’s not giving up enough line drives to make as significant a difference as you appear to be positing.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I did not say he wouldn’t give up less hits, I said he would continue to give up hits because batters are raking against him. Just because he won’t be giving up six hits in less than three innings doesn’t mean he’s going to be an effective pitcher. I don’t believe it is a coincidence that almost every one of his starts has been a disaster.
by scrambles the death dealer on Apr 28, 2011 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions
all pitchers give up hits. Reyes has solid K rates, so if his BABIP regresses to league average, he’ll give up average or fewer (non-HR) hits. What you seem to be saying is that his BABIP won’t regress to league average (and therefore he’ll continue to give up too many hits) because he gives up too many line drives.
It’s true that to this point, Reyes has given up line drives at a rate about 2% greater than league. If that continues, you might expect his BABIP to be about 20 points higher than league average (so like .320, say, instead of .300), so it’s possible you’re right.
Generally, though, there are few or no data that suggest that limiting line drives is a pitching skill, so the expectation would be that his line drive rate will regress as his BABIP regresses. I don’t entirely subscribe to that point of view, myself, particularly when you’re talking about fringe major-leaguers, but I think it’s more true than not.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I understand the statistical reasons why Reyes might not be the absolute worst option. My argument is not supported very well by his peripheral statistics, but Reyes has simply not been effective. He seems to struggle avoiding the middle of plate and his inconsistency means that total collapses happen quite often.
My point is simply that Reyes has been unreliable as a fifth starter and somebody more consistent would mean the Jays wouldn’t be routed as often.
by scrambles the death dealer on Apr 29, 2011 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I certainly agree with your conclusion as I stated above, and it's not a statistics vs. eyesight argument
As I explained above, advanced metrics don’t suggest Reyes has been anything other than extremely mediocre and unusually lucky that more of his fly balls haven’t gone for home runs (by the way, if it were true that Reyes was giving up more hard contact than other pitchers, you’d expect his HR/FB to be higher than average, not lower).
More than anything, I was confused by your reasoning, but I think I understand it now.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
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