Loss of Power?
by Fuzzpuke on Apr 3, 2011 11:53 AM EDT
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PrintNot sure if it was from Friday or Saturday's game but I heard Buck or Pat comment on how people were wondering where the loss of power was going to come from this year.
What?
What people were wondering this? I haven't heard commentary/analysis from anybody, anywhere, wondering this question because I think it's obvious.
For starters, Wells, Overbay and John Buck are out, taking their 71 HRs from last season with them.
In, is JPA, Rajai and Rivera. I feel a quite conservative total for them collectively is 30.
That's a difference of ~40 HRs which if subtracted from last years team total, STILL leads the majors in bombs.
I figure the meaning of the question was that the Jays lived and died by the long ball, so a loss of power would directly result in losses on the scoreboard... but it has been apparent for a long time now that we are transforming into a speedier, more aggressive team on the basepaths which would easily help create runs.
Am I missing something? Or did the broadcast booth just feel like making a point that we still have power and score runs when to my knowledge, that issue never existed?
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There’s the perception that if the team is going to be speedier and run the bases more, that their power numbers have to decline relative to that strategy. It’s something that gets run with because sports writers have long created team archetypes in order to quickly describe organizations at a glance. So a fast team that uses speed and stolen bases has to be a ‘small ball’ model team, where as a team that relies on the home run obviously is a station to station slugging team.
The reality is that the Jays are morphing into an organization that can hit and can run, along the lines of the A’s of the late 80s; a couple of speedsters, smart movement on the basepaths, and power up and down the lineup. So a nice multi-dimensional offense that can generate offense in a number of different ways.
Since the beginning of the game...
…the two most important statistics leading to runs scored are on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Teams that run well simply don’t score as proficiently as teams that get on base and hit for power. The most obvious example was the difference between the participants in the 1985 World Series. The Cardinals did many things well, particularly run, but they were a relatively punchless team while the Royals had a massive advantage in power. We Jays fans know this from the painful example the Royals gave us in the ALCS.
"I could have conquered Europe, all of it, but I had women in my life." - King Henry II of England
30 is an extremely conservative prediction
I would have called 50 conservative… Rivera and JP should both hit at least 20
I was definitely erring on the safe side...
But I think JPA hitting 20 in his rookie year is expecting a little too much. That would be great, though. He certainly has looked fantastic at the plate in his two games so far.
Yah I guess
Like I said, I was being purposely conservative.
Twenty may not be a reach, but I won’t subscribe to the above comment stating “he should” hit 20.
He hit 32 in the PCL, which everybody knows is a hitter-friendly league. I won’t say that should translate into 20 HR in a rookie campaign.
He also had better numbers
away from the friendly confines of the stadium in Vegas.
The whole league is a hitter’s league, yes, but none of the other parks are as/more hitter-friendly than Vegas – and most of his damage was done at those other parks… which makes them more legitimate in my estimation.
Let's not forget..
Travis Snider whom they’ll be expecting more than 14 HRs from.
You guys are getting nit-picky
I think everyone can agree that we can expect a decline from those 3 positions, even if its closer to 30 HRs than the 40+ that the original poster “quite conservatively” calculated. His point was that even with his highly pessimistic adjustments we still would have lead the league last year.
I think those changes play a role in that perception, but i feel the biggest factor is Jose Bautista. The biggest buzz around the Jays this off-season was his signing(and the Wells trade earlier), and the consensus was there is absolutely no way he will hit 50+ this year.
“Well if Bautista comes back to earth, and Wells is gone, it seems mathematically impossible for the Jays to lead the league in dingers this year.”
I have to admit, when you put it how you did – swap Wells, Overbay, and Buck for JPA, Rivera, and Rajai, and we would still have lead the league, it DOES almost feel like somebody forgot to carry a 1 there or something.
Agreed.
My further, unspoken point was who cares if we have a decline in power? We don’t need to lead the league in HRs. Is anyone going to be concerned if we ONLY hit 200 this season and finish 4th? We just need runs, which hopefully translate into wins.
The gap was so absurdly large, that it just makes sense to sacrifice power for speed in order to achieve a solid balance and more dangerous, diverse offense. Personally I’d like to see even more balance, but hopefully that will come in the form of Gose. It’s also nice to NOT HAVE TO worry about a rookie catcher’s power production because there is still plenty of pop through the rest of the lineup, but again, if he does in fact hit 20 this year, then great!
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