FanGraphs looks at Hill's contract

FanGraphs takes a look at Hill's contract following the Jays declining his 2014 option calling it a move that "carries little risk"

about 1 year ago benk 7 comments 0 recs |

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main points if you're curious

- Hill’s BABIP in 2010 was the lowest of any regular player (>500 PAs) since 1950
- his xBABIP was .282 (LINK) so despite all the popups he was still historically unlucky
- with some BABIP stabilization and solid defense he should pretty easily be a .260/.320/.440 guy which is good for three wins or more if his BABIP returns to career norms – easily surplus value from the contract

by benk on Apr 6, 2011 9:31 AM EDT reply actions

So…. all in all… Its a team friendly contract! Woo!

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
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by JohnnyG on Apr 6, 2011 9:40 AM EDT reply actions

I remember when JP got the boot

this was one of the best moves he had made (though, as we later found out, he knew how to draft too)

by benk on Apr 6, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions

I stand by my assertion that JP did a lot of things right and the reason he failed was his inability to stick to plan. Between Moneyball/Spend/Rebuild it felt like spinning our wheels with a GM that suffered from bad ADD

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Apr 6, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree

I think I wrote a FanPost about him a little bit before he got fired, under my old username…

by benk on Apr 6, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree, JP did a lot of things right

But he also failed to successfully sell his plans to the fans. As a GM, you can sell the fans on winning or hope. His first plan (dump bad contracts and old players and draft smartly) didn’t exactly work to either of those, but fans were willing to at least give him the benefit of the doubt. In his second plan (sign free agents with expanded payroll) initially worked but the young foundation of the team was not there to sustain success. This being his second plan, fans were a bit more skeptical and the skepticism grew with more and more questionable free agent signings. Astute observers questioned his draft strategy, which emphasized signability and safeness over potential. In the end, it seemed as if the second plan had morphed into a third plan (try to keep my job).

by siggian on Apr 6, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions