Why I'm a hater and I hate CoPa (not really)

I'm writing this fanpost so I don't have to keep on repeatng why I'm down on Corey Patterson. Read if you really want statistical analysis. If you don't, you don't have to.

Like benk has pointed out to be so many times, Patterson's been having a pretty decent year, with a slash line of .293/.322/.451, wRC+ of 111, and a WAR of 1.2. Pretty good all around the board, and I highly doubt he can keep this up, or even be above average the rest of the way. There are two reasons why I don't think Patterson will keep this up. First is his BABIP and xBABIP, second is his plate discipline.



Patterson's been having a pretty good (read: lucky) season so far. His career BABIP is a clean .300. This year it's .341. It's obviously not at the degree of A-Jax aka the BABIP high priest, but a differential of .041 is still pretty significant.

Now, its possible Patterson might be doing something different to help his BABIP. He isn't. His LD% is 14.8%, which is even worse than his career 18.8%. He's hitting infield fly balls at an alarming rate of 23.1%. To put it in simple words, he's not squaring up balls.

His xBABIP, or expected BABIP, is .306, which is quite surprising for me (i thought it'd be worse). That's not too bad, but he won't be hitting .298 with a BABIP .033 lower. If his BABIP this season was .306, he'd be batting around .262, with an OBP of .293. Do not want.

- Plate Discipline

O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% F-Strike% SwStr%
2011 37.40% 71.50% 53.20% 64.90% 86.20% 78.20% 46.50% 63.90% 11.40%
career 32.80% 74.30% 54.60% 53.40% 84.20% 75.40% 52.70% 63.40% 13.20%

The only thing I want to point out is his O-Swing% and O-Contact%. They're too high, and you don't want them to be this high(outside pitches usually mean weaker contact when hit). Since Plate Discipline is the most controllable aspect to hitting, I'm not sure they will regress down to his career numbers. In fact, his plate discipline has been constantly getting worse since his early career.

- Conclusion

Patterson has been getting lucky on balls in play, and he doesn't have the skill set (plate discipline) to be an effective hitter without balls falling in for him. Now, there are some positives, such as his low(er) SwStr% or low(er) HR/FB% relative to his career, but its not enough to warrant him staying in this lineup.

Basically, Coreay Patterson is a Rajai Davis with slightly more power and slightly worse plate discipline. I don't think keeping both guys around is good for the team. Since the Jays are already commited to Davis, Patterson will have to go. I'm not saying he should be DFA'd or released, but he's not going to keep his performance up, and I'm not sure a 4th OF can bring back anything useful in a trade. Hopefully Anthopoulos proves me wrong and trades him for Mike Trout or something.

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