FanPost

Help Is On the Way - success with supplemental picks

With our new comp picks Anderson, Musgrove, Smith Jr, and Comer, as well as last year's Wojo, Syndergaard, and Sanchez, there is plenty of hope for the future in T.O.  I was curious as to how the Jays have done in the past with supplemental round picks from the June drafts, and did a little bit of research.  I actually did the research a while ago, but it was during my December exams and I never posted them - then got a virus and lost all my data.  So, here goes: The Blue Jays' history of success or otherwise with comp picks.  I'll also list other notable players drafted by the Jays (which I consider to be minimum 7 WAR, or in some cases, current major leaguers)

This does not include picks received from other teams as compensation for free agent signings.

1989

OF Brent Bowers, our first ever supplemental pick, was drafted between rounds 2 and 3 out of high school.  Played 21 games, hit .308 in 39 AB, OPS of .667, no homers, 0.3 WAR.  Notable players from this draft include John Olerud (4th round, 56.8 WAR) Jeffrey Hammonds (9th round, 9.9 WAR) and Jeff Kent (20th round, 59.4 WAR).

1990

1B Tim Byers was drafted between the 2nd and 3rd rounds out of high school.  Played 133 games, hit .217 in 230 ABs, OPS of .585, 2 homers, -1.4 WAR.  Notable players: Steve Karsay (1st round, 9.9 WAR).

1991 - two picks

RHP Jeff Ware was drafted between rounds 1 and 2 out of college.  Went 3-6 with a 7.43 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP in 18 appearances.  WAR of -0.7.  SS Dante Powell was drafted 7 picks later out of high school.  Got into 70 games, hit .270 in 74 ABs, OPS of .755, 2 homers, -0.2 WAR.  Notable players: Shawn Green (1st round, 29.4 WAR), Alex Gonzalez (13th round, 7.4 WAR), Ryan Franklin (25th round, 11.7 WAR).

1992

SS Brandon Cromer was drafted between the first two rounds out of high school and never made the majors.  Notable player: Shannon Stewart. (1st round, 19.8 WAR)

1993 - three picks

OF Matt Farner and RHP Jeremy Lee, both taken between the first two rounds out of high school, failed to make the majors.  LHP Mark Lukasiewicz, drafted out of junior college, got into 41 games, with a 2-2 record, a 5.20 ERA, and a 1.29 WHIP, and a WAR of -0.2.

1994, 1995 - no picks

1996

1B Pete Tucci was drafted between the first two rounds out of college and never made the majors.  Notables include Casey Blake (7th round, 23.2 WAR), Orlando Hudson (33rd round, 20.8 WAR) and only because I really liked watching him pitch, 1st rounder Billy Koch, who posted a 6.0 WAR.

1997 - no picks - this was the year we took Vernon Wells in the first round, Micheal Young in the fifth, and the O-Dog (again) in the 43rd round.

1998 - no supplemental picks

1999 - no supplemental picks, but we picked up some dude named Rios (who was a 3B at the time), Brandon Lyon, and Reed Johnson.

2000

Everyone's favourite shoulder problem Dustin McGowan was picked up between the first two rounds.  In his career, McGowan is 20-22 with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP, good for 1.7 WAR.  So far the most WAR by a Blue Jays draft pick in that year.

2001 - nobody of interest

2002 - same, unless you hate Russ Adams.

2003 - no supplemental picks... but our first three picks look like a crap sandwich on good bread - the top slice is Aaron Hill, the bottom slice Shaun Marcum.  The crap in the middle?  Josh Banks.

2004 - LHP Zach Jackson was taken in between the first two rounds out of college.  22 major league games, went 4-5 with a 5.81 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP.  -0.7 WAR.  Worse than 16th overall pick David Purcey.  Worse than 2nd rounder Curtis Thigpen.  But we got Adam Lind, Casey Janssen, and Jesse Litsch that year as well, so it evens out.

2005 , 2006 - nothing

2007 - Brett Cecil, Trystan Magnuson, and Justin Jackson were all taken between the first two rounds - Jackson out out high school, the others from college.  I don't think Cecil and Magnuson (now with Oakland) are finished with their major league careers, but Jackson has some work to do to get there.  Cecil has a 1.8 WAR, Magnuson a -0.2.  We also drafted J.P. Arencibia, Brad Mills, Marc Rzepcynski, Rule 5er Brad Emaus, and Darin Mastroianni.  

2009 - we took James Paxton, but he never signed.

Last year - Sanchez, Syndergaard, and Wojo were all taken between the first two rounds - Wojo from college, the others from high school.  Kellen Sweeney was taken between rounds two and three out of high school, and Marcus Knecht from junior college.  Haven't seen too much from most of these guys due to most of them coming from high school, but Knecht has been raking so far.

Not including this year's guys (because they haven't signed yet - so that means Paxton's out as well), here's a few numbers:

Total picks: 19.  9 pitchers, 10 position players.  10 from high school, 7 from college, 2 from junior college.

Total WAR:  1.0.  McGowan and Cecil have been 3.5 WAR combined.  Not so good for the rest of the players...

In short, we have had little success so far with supplemental draft picks.  For me, this serves to reinforce the fact that the draft is really a crapshoot.  Either your luck is there, or it isn't.  I'm hopeful that the guys we took last year and this year, as well as Brett Cecil, can break the trend and be a productive player for the Blue Jays taken in the supplemental rounds of the draft.

Title from Rise Against's new album Endgame.

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