FanShot

Hindsight 20/20 for Farrell after 'pen miscues (Can Someone Teach Farrell Something About Sample Sizes)

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"Blue Jays manager John Farrell admitted on Wednesday afternoon that he likely made a mistake in the way he handled his bullpen during Toronto's series opener against the Orioles on Tuesday...Farrell brought left-hander Marc Rzepczynski in to pitch the top of the eighth inning with the right-handed Vladimir Guerrero and switch-hitting Matt Wieters due up... The decision was made because Guerrero was 1-for-7 against Rzepczynski in his career, while Wieters was 0-for-3. The move didn't pay off, as Guerrero earned a five-pitch walk and Wieters followed with a two-run homer...I'll be quite frank with you and admit I weighed more of the history than the current trend that a pitcher is in,' Farrell said. 'Even more specific to that, it was the second hitter of the inning that swayed my decision.' "What Rzep and Casey [Janssen] specifically had done against Wieters was pretty much the swing vote, and in retrospect it was a poor decision." Rzepczynski started off the season as one of the league's most reliable setup men, but he's struggled in the month of June. He has allowed four runs and six walks in just 4 2/3 innings. Farrell often talks about his tendency to rely on past performance statistics when making decisions with the bullpen. He said approximately 10 at-bats translates into a suitable sample size, but how a pitcher is throwing should also factor into any potential move. 'There is definitely a balance,' Farrell said. 'If the appearances are lengthy enough where you have a more concrete feel on what the past history against one another has been, that will have a bearing. But that's part of the feel of using your gut or using the current trend or performance of a pitcher has been, versus what they have done over the history of time.' An article that mentions ten AB's as a significant sample size, and where a decision was made by Guerrero's 1 for 7 and Weiters 0 for 3 lifetime stats against Rzep is a bit scary to me. It would have made much more sense to delve into both hitters carreer splits and the way the pitcher is currently pitching. Vlad has carreer OPSed 60 points higher against lefties (over 2000 ABs against lefties) while Weiters has OPSed 60 points lower against lefties over 300+ bats against lefties. Between them it's pretty much a wash if your only going to bring in one pitcher to pitch to them both, Vlad being better against lefties, and Weiters not as good. Rzep's struggles of late should have also played into the decision. However, it's a bit dissapointing to see incredibly small sample sizes being described as deciding factors on day to day decisions regarding the pen.