Zach Stewart's First MLB Start is a Good One But Jays lose to Orioles
by Tom Dakers on Jun 16, 2011 4:29 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Game Recaps
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PrintThat was a very impressive first start for Zach Stewart. If that is an example of what he will do for us, we'll be very happy. He went 7 innings, threw strikes and had good movement on his pitches. He gave up 7 hits, 1 walk, 2 earned and struck out 4. He really deserved a win.
He was helped out by 3 double plays. One of them a great job by Jose Bastista. With Mark Reynolds on first, Ryan Adams hit a fly to Jose. Jose made it look like he couldn't see the ball in the sun, caught it, then threw to first to double off Reynolds.
Course, Stewart was hurt by some bad play in the field too. Jayson Nix missed a grount ball that went just past him. Aaron Hill lost a popup in the sun for a double. And Corey Patterson was very slow getting to a Vlad Guerrero double down the left field line that allowed Nick Markakis to score from first.
On offense we had trouble with Jeremy Guthrie, we only had 1 hit and 1 walk off him. Fortunately he came out of the game after 5 with back troubles. We scored two runs in the 6th off Jim Johnson. Nix singled. Yunel Escobar hit a ground ball that could have been a double play, but second baseman, Ryan Adams, booted it. Corey Patterson put down a sac bunt, surprise. Bautista singled both runners home. Lind and Hill singled to load the bases but EE hit into a double play to end the inning.
Jason Frasor pitched a quick 8th. Jon Rauch came in for the 9th. He got Vlad to hit a soft bouncer up the middle that somehow got between Hill and Escobar. Then he got a ground ball to first that just missed Adam Lind to put runners on the corners. Derrek Lee followed with a swinging bunt that Nix almost made the play on to get the runner at the plate. Almost but not quite. I thought, when Sportsnet was showing us how the Jays were setting up, that Nix and Escobar were too far back. If they had been in a couple of steps, Nix would have been able to make the play.
Rauch left, after getting 3 ground balls (one hit hard) and no outs. Luis Perez came in and gave up a walk and a single and we were down by 2. Shawn Camp relieved him, with the bases loaded and no outs,and finally got the 3 outs, without allowing any more runs.
Kevin Gregg came in for the save and I though we had a chance. Adam Lind lead off with a home run, off the foul pole, but that was all we got off Gregg.
Jays of the Day are Stewart (.143 WPA), Frasor (.110). Lind (.116) and Bautista (.102). Players with suckage numbers are Rauch (-.392), EE (.294 on an 0 for 4) and Joe Molina (-.112, 0 for 3).
Plate umpire Bob Davidson had an interesting strike zone all game long. He ended up tossing Jose Molina after Jose struck out, swinging at a very low pitch after Davidson called a similar pitch a strike. Jose made some comment after the strikeout and was tossed quick. It seemed like a quick toss, Molina didn't turn towards Davidson, he just said something as he walked away, but then Molina had had troubles will Davidson all afternoon. Both benches had moments of getting on Davidson's case.
Tomorrow we start up Inter League play again. The Jays go to Cincinnati for 3 games against the Reds. Jo-Jo Reyes (2-5, 4.30) gets the start. Mike Leake (6-2, 4.06) goes for the Reds.
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It would have been interesting to hold Stewart back 1 game so he could face the Reds
Maybe if he could beat the Reds it would have took some sting out of swapping Rolen for E5
...and make sure you vote for Jose
by craig in calgary on Jun 16, 2011 4:42 PM EDT reply actions
Rolen didn't have much time left on his contract anyway
it was worth it just to get something for him (and, if you put stock in that, try to be a franchise that players like since we treat them well)
You know that the Jays didn't swap Rolen for Encarnacion
Rolen was traded primarily for Stewart, secondarily for Roenicke, with Encarnacion being taken in lieu of the Jays sending cash to Cincinnati.
by Minor Leaguer on Jun 16, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Positives and Negatives
Stewart looked real good in his first game, hope he can keep it going. Lind looks like the Adam Lind of old – maybe even go so far to say an new improved model and Aaron Hill seems to look like he is starting to find a comfort level – I’m thinking the leg injuries the last 2 years were more then the simply strain/pulls they were said to be – Buck Martinez made a good point the otehr night about both he and Nix not looking comfortable at the plate and saying a leg injury can do that to a player well after he comes back – may explain some of VW wows a few years back too. The other postitive that can’t be forgotten is Bautista faking Reynolds out on the pop out and then proceeding to gun him down at 1st. The big negative to me is E5 as he continues to look lost at the plate and has become pretty much useless to the Jays organization.
Edwin is just off a stretch of hitting .400 over the last 2-3 weeks.
with lots of doubles. He has had a couple of bad games in a row.
Well, I just went through his gamelog
If you cherrypick his best stretch this year, from May 29-June 11, he went 12/28 for a .428 BA. 5 of those were XBH with 2 HR and 3 doubles. Great stretch yes, but I’m sure every hitter goes through some stretches like that. I’d guess he get’s DFA’d next time there needs to be a roster move as he is only uselfull as a DH who has some gnarly hot and cold stretches.
...and make sure you vote for Jose
by craig in calgary on Jun 16, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree
I don’t think he’s all that great, and I’d be surprised if he’s on the team next year, but there’s no way they cut EE before Nix or Richmond, who both have about about no value at all to the Jays.
EE might be prone to hot and cold stretches, but even when he’s cold, he’s not nearly as bad a hitter as Nix. And MacDonald/McCoy are at least as good defensively and contribute marginally more with the bat. As soon as Lawrie’s up, Nix will be first to go IMO. It still beats me why he’s even an everyday player at this point.
Nix plays everyday, Edwin doesn't
Why would they cut Nix over Edwin? I’m not debating who is better, but the organization clearly values Nix over Edwin since he is actually playing.
...and make sure you vote for Jose
by craig in calgary on Jun 16, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
this is true
but EE has more value as a bench player. neither one is going yet, but when the Jays have an option everyday at third (Lawrie, Brett) I think Nix would (well, should) be the one who goes. EE, should his bat recover, which it should, would actually be a pretty good righty option to spell Lind (and FIELDER!)
I could be wrong, because I am wrong alot...
But I don’t think Reynolds being thrown out had much to do with Bautista acting like he lost the ball, and almost everything to do with Bautista surprising Reynolds by gunning it to first. Still a great play by Bautista, without question, but more a failure on Reynolds part to assume Bautista was just going to lob it back in to the infield… much like Escobar’s running to second on CoPa’s attempted sac bunt yesterday.
What was Camp's WPA?
I figured coming into a close game with bases loaded, no out, and getting 3 outs without letting a run score would contribute to “adding probability to a win”
...and make sure you vote for Jose
by craig in calgary on Jun 16, 2011 4:52 PM EDT reply actions
Nice start by Stewart
But let’s be realistic..it was against the Orioles. Not to take anything away from a very positive debut, what a relief from watching Drabek not find the strikezone. But we won’t know if Stewart can cut it in the MLB for some time. This could be a sign of things to come, or something like Drabek where he’s good for a while and then hitters figure him out. Once the scouting reports are updated, Stewart will have to adapt.
of course
that would be true no matter who the start was against. It could be a no hitter against the Red Sox and it’d still be just one start and all the same cautions would still apply.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Well
A no-hitter against the Red Sox with good groundball numbers and peripherals would be a lot more positive than a decent start against the Orioles where only 1/3rd of the balls in play were hit on the ground against him. For someone who prides himself on being a groundballer, Stewart didn’t get that many outs on the ground.
for sure
though he threw a lot of strikes, and that’s a very good sign for a young pitcher making his debut. And he did come up with a few timely ground balls when he needed them.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
this is something I just started wondering
DIPS of course ignore sequencing, but it’s it plausible that a pitcher throws more sinkers/cutters with men on base, such that there is an ability to “get ground balls when you need them”?
Have to throw strikes and trust your defense
And our defense is pretty solid. Drabek was trying to paint the corners on almost every pitch and his control wasn’t good enough to do so.
HEADING STRAIGHT FOR THEM, I PRESS DOWN MAH GUNS!
Stop pooping on the party
…actually I thought of the same thing. Remember Brad Mills’ line from last year? 7.0 IP 2H 4K 3BB 0R.
Maybe that’s why they elected to start Stewart at home against the O’s…
by Minor Leaguer on Jun 16, 2011 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
When you are playing the Orioles at home...
… and their pitcher has a sore back and your rookie pitcher gives you seven innings of two-run ball, you should win. Blame the 6-7-8 hitters and their replacements. They went a combined 0 for 11 with 0 walks, 4 Ks, and a bases-loaded inning-ending DP. Blame Rauch and Perez, who faced five Oriole batters in the ninth and retired zero. Some of those balls weren’t hard-hit, but STILL….
Bautista is in a real swoon, and it is not just a lack of home runs, although he drove in two runs with a single today. He, Lind, Escobar, and sometimes Patterson are our only positives on offence this year. Imagine what would happen if Bautista and Lind started smashing the ball in the same innings!
Would be very risky
Who knows how a hitter handles DHing? Some don’t regress at all, some are a lot better when playing the field.
I, with 0 statistical evidence to back this up
believe this is theory is highly reliant on anecdata. Adam Lind had one fantastic year at DH and one crappy year at DH, so don’t use him as an example. Prince Fielder is a top-10 (right now he’s top-3) hitter in the NL and has been for about 6 years, he’s about as sure of a thing as you can get in an elite bat (and hell, he certainly looks like a DH)
also, and this is nitpickign
you used the word “regress” improperly. when moving from a position to DH, they have nothing to “regress” to, it’s not a negative word but is almost always used in a negative sense (Adam Lind is experiencing positive regression)
I'll defend with
the fact English is not my native language, so I have been misled by people using the word regress incorrectly through no fault of my own. ;)
that's very surprising (and that's a compliment)
I honestly would never have guessed. anyway, the word regress is used for “regression to the mean” which means going back to average. we’re expecting Hill and Lind to regress positively, but the term is almost always used for good players regressing from fluke seasons (Patterson, Bautista before 2011, etc).
In vernacular English, "regress" is used almost exclusively in a negative sense
Only in mathematics and statistics is “regress” used to mean “movement towards the mean” (either positively or negatively). In baseball I think the majority of fans only use the term “regress towards the mean” to describe players who perform poorer than a previous year where they played better than their career average. Only rarely do you hear one use “regress” when a player is playing better.
In Latin, regress- is the past participal stem of regredī, which means to go back or to return.
by Minor Leaguer on Jun 16, 2011 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a n english native speaker, as well, I think it’s just a product of seeing “Progress” as positive. If “progress” is to move forward, and regress is “to move backward”, one can see why it is mostly used in a negative context.
A tip: always blame it on western culture. It makes you look a “cool” post-modernist…
;-p
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
The old political joke
If “progress” is to move forward, then “congress” is to move backward!
by Minor Leaguer on Jun 17, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
this is true
but when you’re talking SABR, the line between vernacular English and statistical analysis gets blurred
He doesn't need to touch the AstroTurf as a DH
Just get the groundscrew to fill in the infield and roll out a red carpet for his walk to the plate.
by Minor Leaguer on Jun 16, 2011 9:34 PM EDT up reply actions
running the bases is a big part of playing
especially if you get on base .400 of the time
Choose me, Ash!
but on average
hitters do hit a little bit worse as DHs than as position players, but about ~5 runs (half a win) worth over the course of a season. for some players, there’s no difference, for other players there’s a big dropoff, and some players probably hit better as a DH. but overall, they hit slightly worse.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/complete_war_2008/
Tango references it a lot. I think he might’ve done the work in The Book. I’m not sure…haven’t read it in a while.
I'm pretty happy with JPA
and Molina has been performing quite well on JPA’s days off. Yes, Hill, Rivera/EE, and Davis have not been good, but even the Yankees and Red Sox have a couple players in the mid-650 OPS range playing everyday. 3B is an unmitigated disaster, but there is a solution in place to fix that, hopefully sooner then later (Lawrie).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jun 16, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
don't look now
but Hill is doing pretty good….
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 17, 2011 7:59 AM EDT up reply actions
how dare you get my hopes up!
and it was on 6am this morning…if that means anything
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 17, 2011 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions
If they had been in a couple of steps, Nix would have been able to make the play.
I think he should have made the play. To me, Nix threw the ball high so the JPA had to come up and stretch to get it. As it was, it was a close play with the tag being applied as the Oriole crossed the plate. Had the ball been lower, JPA would have been able to get the tag down quicker and before the runner touched the plate.
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