A Lovely, Lovely Feeling, It Makes You Want to Shout: Ricky Romero and Blue Jays Shut Out Cardinals 5-0
by jessef on Jun 26, 2011 5:49 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Game Recaps
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PrintThe Jays complete a series sweep against the Cardinals on the road behind some timely hitting and a great pitching performance from Ricky Romero.
Romero dominated the Cards this afternoon for his third complete game this season and the second shutout of his promising, young career, striking out five and generating plenty of worm-burners, while yielding just seven baserunners (four hits, two walks, one hit batsman). There were only two scary moments today. Andrew Brown led off the bottom of the fifth with a flyball to leftcentre, fairly deep but easily playable. Corey Patterson and Juan Rivera converged on the ball, but neither caught it (really, this one should have been Patterson's) and Brown ended up at second with none out. After the Cardinals (foolishly) had Colby Rasmus sacrifice Brown over to third, Romero got the next batter to ground out to third, intentionally walked the number eight batter, and struck out the Cardinals starter Kyle McClellan handily. Considering that the number eight batter was in the hole after Rasmus sacrificed and this was the tying run in the bottom of the fifth inning, the sacrifice really was extremely poorly conceived. The second scary moment was in the ninth, when Lance Berkman sent one back through the box that hit off Ricky's leg for a single, but Romero stayed in the game and went on to get the next batter to ground into a double play to finish the Cards for the weekend.
The offence today showed up a bit more than it has most of the season, but the damage was mostly done all at once. It looked like things would go well at the start when Yunel Escobar and Aaron Hill both reached, but three quick outs later and it started to look like Ricky might not get much run support today, either. J.P. Arencibia homered in the top of the second and, although that was all that was really necessary, the Jays piled on another four runs in the top of the sixth inning (thanks in no small part to a two-run single that Romero hit after the Cardinals intentionally walked Arencibia to face him with loaded bases and just one out). This was another questionable Cardinals managerial move and it came back to bite them hard. That was pretty much all the damage the offence did, though they did scatter a bunch of hits and drew four walks on the afternoon.
Jays of the Day: Ricky (+0.350 pitching, +0.054 at the plate) and Patterson (+0.102) were the only one with the numbers. I'm going to take it away from Patterson for the fielding miscue, but I will give him the honourable mention. I'm also giving honourable mention to Yunel (+0.083) for going 2-4 with a walk and a double and Arencibia (+0.073) for the homerun.
No suckage awards, though Bautista came close (-.092).
The Jays have a makeup game against the Tigers tomorrow evening, Zach Stewart against Max Scherzer. Hope to see y'all in the thread!
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Was a great game
glad I couldn’t find any streams because this was an awesome game to watch in a bar in HD an surround sound. I thoroughly enjoyed this game.
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
It was also nice to see interleague rules work in our favour
when Ricky was able to get himself out of the jam Corey Patterson and Juan Rivera put him in.
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Aww, darn...I wish I could go to Comerica..it's only about an hour and a half away too..
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jun 26, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Lol yeah true, I was wondering if that was you or not.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jun 26, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jun 26, 2011 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm tempted...
…I’m in KW Monday. I could be at Detroit by game time easily.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jun 26, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I was always curious to ask this question so I will.
Have you ever went to any of the Lugnuts game this year or any before?
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jun 26, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Where is Lansing?
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
Nvm
Google maps…
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
I saw him play the Red Sox early this year. Don't remember the score, but it was like 14-1 for Boston or something like that.
Hopefully he’s just as bad tomorrow.
but you’re right, I can’t stop staring at them.
by leaflover4ever on Jun 26, 2011 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
haha me too.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jun 26, 2011 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
So...
When RiRo was calling out the “hitting,” he decided he would just do it himself??
"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman
by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 26, 2011 6:29 PM EDT reply actions
That's...
a pretty effective kind of leadership, wouldn’t you say?
"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman
by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 26, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
6IP 5H 1R 0ER 5K 1BB
Hasn’t seemed to have lost a step with the promotion
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jun 26, 2011 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I know the cities are all relatively close but...
Playing in St Louis, flying to Detroit, playing the Tigers, flying to Toronto and then playing the Pirates in about 48 hours seems like a long 2 days
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jun 26, 2011 7:08 PM EDT reply actions
Detroit is making up for a rain delay
Onions Baby Onions
by ohmybosh on Jun 26, 2011 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also
The game is at a weird start time of 6pm EST
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 27, 2011 7:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if that means we will be seeing some bench guys…
Nix at third, ee dh, j-mac at ss or 2nd…..
/shudders
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 27, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Although we all know he should be
doesn Ricky get in to the All Star game? Other than his w/l record he’s got top notch numbers.
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
hmm
Felix
Verlander
Haren
Weaver
Shields
Price
Beckett
Theres lots of good pitchers in the AL…
Onions Baby Onions
You forgot
Pineda and Sabathia and Lester…I agree the AL has a lot of good pitchers having great years but the fact remains Romero’s got the credentials to be there this year
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Jun 26, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes it is Washington but i was trying to say the manager or other ppl usually choose base on
W/L record rather than looking deep into other stats
is it the manager of the teams that went to the WS or the guys who lost
in the League finals?
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
He's also gone at least 7 innings
in 10 of his 14 starts. He’s been a big leader for us on the mound this year
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
If we win the Pirates series and atleast 1 game in the Philly series
we should be .500 in interleague play this year which is very good considering the Jays past history.
We should celebrate!
5-4 interlieague road trip!
And that includes the debacle in Atlanta.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jun 26, 2011 8:13 PM EDT reply actions
I'll take the Dotel celebration
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jun 26, 2011 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Right here sir..
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jun 26, 2011 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Thank you!
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jun 26, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Anytime.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jun 26, 2011 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Dotel would be a fun guy to spend some time. there’s a video on the Jays website posted before the season started with him singing. He has a sweet voice.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jun 26, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
He’d probably be very fun to be with in the bullpen.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jun 26, 2011 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
When i saw that i couldn't stop laughing
Cause you always see the guys in the bullpen clapping or high-fiving but never seen anyone get up and actually dance.
Wow
Ricky is scary when he has something to prove. With him on one side and Jose on the other, I think this team has real leadership.
Leaders with "drawers"?
The word you want is “cojones”
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jun 27, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Farrell
I know we shouldn’t be overly hard on Farrell because he’s a first-time manager. However, leaving aside things like small ball, small sample sizes, etc.: why isn’t Thames playing? Is it really that important to put Rivera in LF? Also, what is this infatuation with Patterson? I know that Davis isn’t hitting well (i.e. at all), but Patterson simply can’t play CF. Fortunately, Romero pitched well enough that these things didn’t matter, but I did wonder about them…
I honestly don't understand
how Patterson can be so bad calling people off. I could of sworn the guy had played CF before this year…
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Surprisingly, Patterson's Defensive numbers...
…aren’t bad this year.
At Fangraphs, UZR has his a 1.4 runs below average, which on an entire season projects to about 3.0 runs, less than 1/3 of a win. At BR, their using Total Zone, which shows him 12 runs ABOVE average, 9 in LF and 3 in CF, where his range factor is about 15% below (2.27 vs 2.67) average. This has him worth 1.2 wins in the field so far this year, by far the largest value of any Jay.
and yes, CoPa, did play a few games in CF last year, but only 10.
Disclaimer: I only report them, I don’t make up these stats and with defensive stats, I have my reservations.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jun 26, 2011 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I definitely think he's capable of playing the position
he just seems to have trouble when he’s not the only fielder who can get to the ball.
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Good that you added that disclaimer
Cause it doesn’t matter what metrics you run out there, watching him play CF can be fustrating. He’s very sub par imo.
well in IMO
and using actual statistical data to back up my data and not anecdotal opinion, he’s very above average despite occassional mistakes
Really
“Using stats to back up your data”. Sure it’s not the basis of your opinion. I don’t know about you, but in the many years (and it’s alot) that I’ve watched baseball, I’d be hard pressed to remember a CF making that many miscues in a year, let alone 2 and a half months.
With hitting stats, it’s easy to see the sample size — the number of PAs. With defensive stats, it’s not clear to me. Presumably we want to count the number of balls hit to CF (in the case of Patterson). I can’t believe that the defensive stats for Patterson are anywhere near significant this year. Are they? If not, I think we have to rely more on direct observation than stats.
by DavidLondon on Jun 27, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
that was my point, yes
even if he’s had some mental mistakes, it’s not unreasonable at all to expect him to regress to career norms
benk, you’ve made this argument before several times, that you have to look at career stats in evaluating a player. This is just wrong. By this logic, Willie Mays is still a great player — just look at his career stats. The proper way to evaluate a player now is to look at the recent stats (even if the sample size is smaller).
by DavidLondon on Jun 27, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay, I looked it up. But the claim that Patterson is an above-average defender is misleading. This year, Patterson has below-average defensive stats in CF. The last year that Patterson played a reasonable amount of CF was 2008, and there he was only about average. It wouldn’t be at all unlikely that he is now below average (3 years later). Last year, he played mostly LF, and was below average defensively. The last year he was above average defensively was in 2009, when he played RF. So the stats and observation both suggest that he isn’t that good now at defense. (Career stats are irrelevant to evaluating a player now.)
by DavidLondon on Jun 27, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
im sorry, but what stats are you looking at here?
he was solid average on the field since 2007, 2008, parts of 2009. and 2010.
Choose me, Ash!
okay
the only time he’s posted a negative UZR/150 as an OF or a CF was in 2008, with a -0.4.
Choose me, Ash!
and in 2011 as an OF with -1.4
But I agree, he is definitely an average defensive OF. (not sure what a solid average player is though).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jun 27, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
ahh
i see what youre saying. he really hasn’t played enough of CF over the last 3 years for there to be a reasonable sample.
Choose me, Ash!
Right, I was separating CF from LF/RF. In CF, it appears that he is at best average, and probably somewhat below average. In LF/RF, It’s a little harder to say — he was about average last year, but was well above average in 2009.
by DavidLondon on Jun 27, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, but he didn't play much in 2009.
i think im going to agree with you. He’s a bad fielder at CF at this point.
Choose me, Ash!
???
Well above average based on 7 balls in zone? about average based on 17 balls in zone?? The only stat that matters is his career one: 8.4 UZR/150 over 1590 innings. You may not think he’s that player anymore, but stats will tell you nothing.
Career stats are definitely not the only stat that matter
David’s argument perfectly reflects why career numbers are not good estimators for current skill level – do you really think Willie Mays is an above average player right now? His career stats are pretty awesome, so he must be!
Career stats are great for comparing the careers of different players, or for looking at career progression, but for determining present day skill level you need to consider a weighted average of past stats, with a higher weight placed on more recent stats.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jun 27, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
this is an absurd argument
because you’re picking a variable not even present in the sample set. Patterson is only 30, he hasn’t dealt with chronic injury, he doesn’t seem to have altered his “fielding mechanics” at all so the argument that all of a sudden he’s a rubbish outfielder is just… improbable
Problem is he doesn't have enough playing time in CF past 2008
And his numbers in the corner OF since 2008 has been average, leading to the conclusion that he’s a below average CF at this point
Choose me, Ash!
by Pikachu on Jun 27, 2011 1:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It's fair to say too
That the error that provoked this discussion happened because he was in CF. It seems likely that if Patterson had been in LF and Davis in CF, Davis would have yelled instructions and one of them would have caught the ball.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jun 27, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
…I would have liked to see Thames playing, but it’s hard to sit Rivera the day after he homers.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jun 26, 2011 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
"I know we shouldn’t be overly hard on Farrell because he’s a first-time manager"
false
Choose me, Ash!
yea
it’s getting really hard to support farrell…he just makes so many obviously wrong moves, and he really doesn’t seem to be getting any better
i don't want to say wrong, because i might be wrong too,
but his moves lack logic, or common sense.
Choose me, Ash!
Why, you don't think he deserves the same ups and downs we give our rookie players?
You are overly critical because of Farrell’s over-reliance on small sample size. Isn’t judging him because of how he handled 1 situation in fact judging him on a small sample size? I don’t see the difference.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jun 26, 2011 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
no
on certain things, yes. but when it comes to in-game strategy (pinch-hitting, lineup construction, reliever usage) he should already know what he’s doing, and he clearly doesn’t. he uses dotel against lefties, he hits patterson at the top of the order, he lets romero hit in a high leverage situation, he says that he considers 10 PA to be a big enough sample to judge batter-pitcher matchups by, etc. he’s just made so many bad decisions that it’s not a “small sample size”.
Rebuttal
he uses dotel against lefties
I haven’t seen Dotel vs a lefty in well over a month other than mopup situations
he hits patterson at the top of the order
Instead of whom exactly? He hit about .300 in April and May. He struggled in June, but tell me who was hitting better than him that would make the linep better?
he lets romero hit in a high leverage situation
Today? Wasn’t his hit in the 5th inning? Was he supposed to yank him in the 5th?
he says that he considers 10 PA to be a big enough sample to judge batter-pitcher matchups by
He owned that and said it was a mistake…again, he’s learning on the fly.
I find it ironic people are getting on Farrells case for reliance on SSS’s yet they are pining for Thames because he’s hitting so well. What has it been 50 at bats?…and that’s ignoring the .452 BABIP elephant in the room. I want to se the kid play too, but it has nothing to do with stats.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jun 26, 2011 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
you replied while I was still thinking and didn't look below
but so I said a very similar thing about Romero before looking down
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Dotel vs. lefties: point taken, but it shouldn’t have taken 6 weeks of miserable results before farrell realized that
Patterson: instead of…well anyone really. who cares what his batting average was at that point, all that matters is how good you’d expect him to be going forward. the 2 spot should have one of our three best hitters, and there’s no way anyone would’ve projected patterson as one of our top 3 hitters at any point in this season
Romero: yes, he should’ve yanked him in the 6th inning. it was a high leverage situation, so the upgrade from romero to davis/thames would’ve been much more impactful than in a typical pinch-hit situation. plus typical middle relievers are as good as or better than even a top of the rotation starter on the 3rd or 4th time through the lineup, so we wouldn’t have been losing anything on the pitching side.
i don’t think he should be playing thames because he’s hitting so well. i think he should be playing thames because he’s more likely than not already better than patterson, and he certainly has more upside so we should be getting him as many PAs as possible to try to figure out how good he really is.
I can't agree with that
Romero had shown no signs of struggling up to that point in the game and had just pitched around a lead off double that had it not been for Patterson wouldn’t have happened. The guy was on today while you might be right that typically 3rd/4th time through the lineup a starter is less effective than a reliever. Romero was dealing today why would you pull the guy. Why use a couple guys in your BP in the first game of a series when you don’t have to?
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Romero was dealing today why would you pull the guy.
there is no evidence for pitchers being “on” on given days (or at least that managers are able to correctly identify whether their starter is “on”). ie, given that romero has pitched extremely well through 5 innings, we would expect him to pitch at his regular projected level over the rest of the game (plus the times through the order penalty), not any better than that.
Romero: yes, he should’ve yanked him in the 6th inning. it was a high leverage situation, so the upgrade from romero to davis/thames would’ve been much more impactful than in a typical pinch-hit situation.
You replace a guy throwing a two hit shutout in the 6th, you are looking for a job the next day, because your entire rotation just decided you can’t be trusted.
I don't really buy into that stuff
but there’s no way you pull Romero in that situation, no matter what WPA says.
I don’t even buy the WPA argument. Let’s assume that all the numbers that Jono gave are correct. For example, he said that “a typical middle reliever facing the order the 1st time will do as well or better than even a top of the rotation starter the 3rd or 4th time through.” What’s the error on this? I mean, this may be true on average, but it’s not always true — sometimes the relievers fail horribly. So the uncertainty on this is nonzero, and I would suspect that it’s large. So you have a choice. You can blindly follow the numbers, knowing that you will fail a significant fraction of the time if the errors are large. Or you can use your own observation to decide what to do. I’ll vote for observation. And in this case, where Romero was pitching brilliantly, it’s a no-brainer.
I mean, this may be true on average, but it’s not always true — sometimes the relievers fail horribly.
right. and sometimes you leave your starter in and he gets shelled. it’s all about expected value. suppose our options were as follows (i just want a clear-cut example for illustrative purposes):
1) keep your starter in. 50% he pitches great for the rest of the game, 50% he blows up.
2) put in a series of releivers. 60% they pitch great for the rest of the game, 40% one of them blows up.
you clearly want option 2 right? even though there is still a large uncertainty in what will happen
I do buy into that stuff
Not that I believe a great manager can magically turn a bad team into a group of superstars, but the whole point of management is to optimize your performance on the field, and maximize your resources between games. Trust is a huge part of motivation, and a motivated squad has a greater cohesion and focus than one which is fractured and/or second guessing every decision. Maybe it’s a function of my personal perspective, but I’ve played for good managers and bad managers. Under a good manager, I wasn’t necessarily a better players, but I was part of a better team. Under a bad manager, you went out there on your own.
Dude...
…you don’t pull your Ace in a tight game when he’s pitching a shutout. Especially when you know he’s out there trying to prove something. Taking Romero out at that point would have been an incredibly bad idea.
You take calculated risks and let your players grow.
pinch hitting
isn’t generally very successful. I think you are asking for it if you pull your starter in a situation like that.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I think in terms of letting Romero bat
he knew the guy was on his game and why not keep your pitcher swing the bat when he’s pitching a shut out and you have the lead and more importantly he’s the ace of your staff. It was only the top of the 6th you’re not going to pull your ace when he’s pitched only 5 innings of shutout ball.
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Did anyone look at splits before calling out Farrell?
It bothers me that people are too lazy to look up facts before proclaiming the manager made a mistake. LHB’s are .188/.252/.325 vs McClellan. RHB’s are .291/.345/.450
cool
but then he started patterson in place of Davis. I’m not gonna say either is better than each other, both are quite awful, but if he sat thames because of those splits, why did he start patterson?
Choose me, Ash!
good point
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Okay...
So let’s say you have Thames in LF and you’ve got Patterson and Davis on the bench. Who’s your starting CF?
"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman
by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 26, 2011 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
...
Ya gotta work with whatcha got.
"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman
by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 26, 2011 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Rivera was showing some good speed today
could always trot him out in CF. jk. Why wouldn’t you let Thames play CF? He doesn’t look slower than Wells…
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
that's true I guess
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Next Jays game Wed Aug 11th @ SEA
so he's never played it in his pro career
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Next Jays game Wed Aug 11th @ SEA
I guess if he was any good playing CF he'd probably already be playing it
just to get his bat in the lineup
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Next Jays game Wed Aug 11th @ SEA
Hmmm...
Wells was (faster) when he was younger — didn’t seem so fast in his latter days with the Jays.
I don’t have the statistics on Thames, but I don’t think he has the speed to play CF. Personally, I don’t mind a guy like Peter Bourgeois (superstar on defense) with little to no return on the bat. Having that guy that can turn doubles (!) into outs is a real asset. Of course, it’s even better if they’re similar to Mays or Griffey (in that they can play defense) AND hit.
"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman
by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 26, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd take a guy like Bourjos for sure
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Next Jays game Wed Aug 11th @ SEA
and ya I'm saying he is faster than Wells was last year
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Next Jays game Wed Aug 11th @ SEA
I don't want any fielder (no matter how good defensively)
That gives little to no return on the bat, other than for a late game defensive replacement.
superlative fielders
can be worth multiple per wins with the glove. Alcides Escobar can’t hit for beans, but he’s likely to be worth at least 2+ wins per year mostly due to his defense
I think the point Al was making
is that glaring weaknesses can be leveraged both for and against you.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Seems like Gose's most likely outcome is a Bourgeois type guy
So that’d be nice… any extra bat is a plus.
Onions Baby Onions
I dunno about that
Gose has shown reasonable hitting ability at a young age (not that he flew threw the Minors, but he’s never repeated a level and is only 20). Bourjos’ Minors numbers were better than Gose’s, but he only reached AA at 22, so Gose still has plenty of time to improve on his bat. but yeah, it’s possible we’re looking at a Bourjos type (which is plenty valuable).
Off Topic-- Halladay
Anyone know when he is pitching in toronto… Guessing Sunday, but has anything been said yet? Thanks Everyone
They said saturday during the broadcast
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Yes!
He will make his appearance on saturday!
by Isaac Berman on Jun 26, 2011 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
On the radio broadcast of today's game...
…they said Saturday. But with Monday off, they could skip their 5th starter, which would make it Friday. The Phillies’ website shows Worley starting against Lackey on Wednesday and Hamels against Lester on Thursday. Blanton would be next in the rotation, but pitching Roy on Friday would be on his normal number of days rest.
I have tix for Friday. I think the Jays plan to do something to honour the man on Friday.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jun 26, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Seems like it's Kyle Kendrick on Friday.
Via Rotowire via David Hale’s Twitter:
Official- Hamels will pitch Thu. Kendrick on Friday. #Phillies
and
Hamels on Thur, KK on Fri could set up Doc-Lee-Hamels for final 1st half series vs ATL. #Phillies
"They had players who had more hair on their backs than on their heads. Obviously they have more experience," Thomas Müller of Bayern Munich after losing against Inter Milan.
AHHH!
I REALLY wanted it to be Hamels, Halladay or Lee on Friday/Saturday as Im going to both games but I guess that’ll have to do. And if there is some kind of presentation for Halladay, the Friday makes sense. It certainly isn’t going to happen Saturday when he starts and Sunday is just dumb.
The only time I want the Jays to face Hamels-Lee-Doc
Would be in the World Series
Halladay
YES! he will make his appearance on saturday!
I heard it will be Halladay vs. Romero.
Awesome.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Where Halladay hits a 2-run home run for the home crowd…
I don’t know how to feel about that.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
lol that would be awesome but too bad this isn't a relocated series like
the Marlins-Mariners series
only if they push romero back a day...
which im not complaining if they do =)
sucks that its not lee and hamels, i was hoping to see them live as well
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 27, 2011 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I missed the game, and would like some context/explanation...
regarding the IBB of JPA to face Romero. It is said this was a questionable decision.
Regardless of the fact you could argue that almost every decision made by a manager is questionable, and that you can question the IBB as a whole, and that this particular decision ended up costing the Cards… what was questionable about walking JPA to face Romero, who had been 0 for 14 with nine strikeouts in his career? It was as good a bet for a strike out or GIDP as you can get.
Is it because JPA has been pretty bad, too, so you just throw at JPA under the presumption you get him out, and then you face Romero in a less pressured situation with the same probability of getting him out?
the most questionable decision
was farrell letting romero hit there. in fact, it’s not questionable, it’s absolutely terrible. high leverage situation, and we have some close to league average hitters on the bench (davis, thames). and a collection of relievers vs. romero facing the lineup the 3rd/4th time is at worst a wash.
teams are just way too reluctant to pinch-hit for pitchers in critical situations if they’re before the 7th inning, and i really don’t understand it.
Romero was looking spectacular at that point
I would not have lifted him unless the score was tied
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
i realize that probably no manager would’ve lifted him there, but it’s still the right thing to do. a typical middle reliever facing the order the 1st time will do as well or better than even a top of the rotation starter the 3rd or 4th time through. i mean, romero is probably a true talent ~3.3 ERA pitcher which means he’s more of a 3.8-4.0 ERA guy 3rd to 4th time through. we have a number of relievers that are better than 3.8-4.0 ERA guys, so it’s at worst a wash on the pitching side. and, it’s a HUGE (as far as in-game managerial moves are concerned) gain on the hitting side – if you assume romero is a .200 wOBA hitter and his replacement is a .300 wOBA hitter, then it’s about a 1.5% increase in win expectancy to pinch-hit there
i realize that probably no manager would’ve lifted him there, but it’s still the right thing to do.
No, it’s not. It improves your statistical chances to win one game at the cost of trust in your rotation. Part of management is about managing a team for the best performance over a whole season.
by dexfarkin on Jun 26, 2011 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 9 recs
rec'd
He’s your best pitcher, being groomed to become a workhorse ace (arguably just about there already). Trust goes a long way, in sports as in everywhere else in life.
No, it’s not. It improves your statistical chances to win one game at the cost of trust in your rotation. Part of management is about managing a team for the best performance over a whole season.
what if a manager were to tell the team at the beginning of the year, “i’m going to manage games to give us the best chance of winning. i don’t care about your personal stats, all i care about is winning. if you have a problem with that tell me now so we can trade you and find players that value winning above all else.”
do you really think the players would then go out and perform worse? or do you think they’d perform just as well and then the team would win 1-2 more games over the course of the year?
Every manager says ‘I don’t care about your stats. All I care about is winning’. And every player will tell you ‘All I care about is winning and I will do anything to help the ballclub’. But the reality is very different.
You don’t pull a starter throwing a two hit shutout in the 6th with a lead for an improved chance of a run when you’re already ahead. Because the next time you’re in a high leverage situation, the guy is expecting to get pulled. Or he believes that he’s not trusted to finish what he starts. It’s about managing the different people and personalities on a ballclub, not just applying a set of statistics and letting that dictate your choices.
by dexfarkin on Jun 28, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
i just really don’t buy this “trust” stuff. what if the manager at the beginning of the year tells his pitching staff: “starters are expected to pitch 2-3 times through the order. if the game is close at that point, you will be pulled for a reliever. if the game is not close, i will leave you in to save the bullpen. research shows that this is the best way to manage a pitching staff and that it will add 1-2 wins for us.”
what’s the issue with that? there’s no “trust” issue because the pitchers know exactly how it works. do you really think they’d perform worse in this situation than they currently do?
You can’t simply disregard the culture of baseball for statistical optimums. The reason that we have closures is largely nonsense, but it is nonsense that everyone in the game buys into. The idea about trust in a pitcher is to let them pitch as deep into a game as possible. You give them a chance to work out of their issues.
The problem is that people aren’t logical, and that includes baseball players. Mythos matters. Ideas like ‘trust’ matter, and it doesn’t matter how many stats you put up against it. Managers mange teams of players, and not fantasy teams, and sometimes that means making decisions that aren’t necessarily the best in the moment to support the team overall through the season.
yeah, I get what you're saying
but the player management points are valid. besides, do you seriously think a first year manager is going to do something so obviously insane (read: contrary to traditional baseball thinking) as pulling his dominating ace in the 5th inning?
You don't take your Ace out of the game
in the 6th when he’s pitching a shutout. I dunno why this is so complicated. You can’t micro-manage the game, let your best players play.
by dchoubak on Jun 27, 2011 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wow.
A guy pitches a complete game shut out and gets two RBIs in a five run win isn’t good enough?
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jun 27, 2011 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions
It was questionable because there was only one out. Instead of facing JPA and Romero with two runners on, the Cards elected to face Romero and Escobar with the bases loaded. IMHO, a strikeout from Romero was much more likely than a GIDP, leaving the bases loaded with the top of the order up. Add in the small chance that Romero could get a hit himself… I just don’t see the wisdom in not pitching to the #8 hitter.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jun 26, 2011 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I think its more debatable than questionable
You’ve got to think the Cards didn’t want to give up another run the way Romero was dealing. If you take Romero as an automatic out, you’ve got pitching to JPA with 1 out where the infield would probably be in and a sac fly scores a run or even a grounder could score, or pitching to Escobar with 2 outs and a force and a sac fly doesn’t score a run. Yes Escobar is a better hitter than JPA, but JPA with an infield in vs. Escobar with the infield back it gets a lot closer. They were looking to hold the Jays scoreless I don’t think you could question there approach, yes they opened themselves up for a big inning, but allowing 1 was too big for them at the time. The big thing was giving up a single with the bases loaded to an AL pitcher.
They had four innings to score
I think I would have played the infield back on Arencibia and just tried to hold him to the one run.
Also — you can give Arencibia mainly stuff off the plate without intentionally walking him.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Thats sorta what I'm saying
The Cardinals didn’t think they had that one run to give by playing the infield back. So if they didn’t think they could give up another run, the IBB to Arencibia is defenseable. Yeah the had 4 more innings, but they just finished 5 that probably lead them to believe they might not score the 4 they’d need to win if they allowed one more run. I’m not saying it was right or wrong, just that it maybe made a bit more sense then what it perceived to look like.
Yeah, I guess
the Cards had already told the Jays they weren’t going to score more than two runs when they sacrificed with Colby Rasmus. That play was all kinds of stupid
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
there's a link on the top right of the home page
that says new fan post/fan shot. It’s right under the bar that says search comments. Then just put in the link and a description and click the green button that says publish.
Hope that helps. I’ve never actually made one so it may be the blind leading the blind on this one.
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Man, Hutchison is dealing
Went another 6 innings without allowing an ER, though he allowed a run. What is that at ~33 consecutive innings pitched without allowing an earned run?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
He's looking like he should be promoted
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
He made his debut with Dunedin today
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
aah ok good!!
missed that bit of news
"It's a car wreck that's what it is" - John Lynch
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Would it be too early to say he is an ace?
His numbers would be incredible if he could dominate lefties like he does righties. Just checked up the numbers, lefties have a .756 OPS against him (not including today’s game) and righties have .630. Career wise lefties have .810 OPS which surprises me.
Love the way how he keeps improving every year. Hit strikeouts keep going up, his walks keep going down, hits keep going down as well. Really amazing how he turned his career around.
Totally random fact but Romero was also drafted by Red Sox in 2002 in 37th round.
Romero has a really good changeup, which could partially explain those splits.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Probably but can’t be throw it on both sides of the plate?
Heh, maybe Romero will take his game to another level and develop a slider for those lefties.
by Sniderlover on Jun 26, 2011 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
probably
lester
beckett
sabathia
price
verlander
wilson
weaver
haren
anderson
lee
hamels
halladay
beachy
hanson
johnson
sanchez
garcia
greinke
marcum
gallardo
lincecum
kuroda
quick list of ~20 pitchers i would say are definitely better than him, and there are probably another 10 or so right around him…he’s close, but he’s more of a great #2 than an ace at this point
many of the guys you say are "definitely" better than him
are — at best — arguably.
Anibal Sanchez: His xFIP was half a run worse than Romero’s in 2010 and in 2009
Tommy Hanson: His xFIP was slightly worse in 2010, roughly the same in 2009
Josh Beckett: His xFIP worse last year, though significantly better in 2009 (worse again so far in 2011)
C.J. Wilson: Again, his xFIP was half a run worse than Romero’s last year
Brandon Beachy: His xFIP roughly the same as Romero’s last year, Romero has a longer track record
Jaime Garcia: Roughly the same pitcher as Romero last year, again, Romero with the longer track record
Shaun Marcum: xFIP roughly the same (slightly worse, actually) than Romero in 2010 and 2011
Yovani Gallardo: Better rate pitcher, has reached 185 innings twice, never higher (Romero pitched 2010 innings last year)
Not only would I argue that Romero could be better than these guys, I’d argue that he is. xFIP is not the end-all be-all, but it is a quick-and-dirty way to look at starters.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
(also)
This doesn’t mention that none of these pitchers pitch anywhere close to as many games as Romero against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays lineups
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
jessef, question for you
do players with excellent GB numbers (Romero) historically outperform their DIPS predictions? I figured they must, but couldn’t find any conclusive data.
That's a good question
From what I remember, part of the reason that xFIP was created was because there were a lot of pitchers (Derek Lowe types) who were consistently better than their defence-independent numbers suggested.
It would be interesting to see whether or not the correlation between xFIP and ERA breaks at high or low gb-rates. Probably wouldn’t be that hard to make a graph and run linear and non-linear regression analyses if you have the software and the data. Maybe I’ll try one today
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I disagree
Marcum is a pretty unique case, and I don’t think he’s been aided by ballpark or defense (well D helped him in 2008 but not in 2010 or 2011).
He commands many different pitches very well, hitters can make contact but they’ll often be “off-balance”.
he's also a terrific fielder
which probably helps a tiny bit on balls in play
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
No,
Marcum was a SS out of high school and got off the mound remarkably well for a pitcher.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Yeah
But how much difference does having a pitcher that can field well really make?
The pitcher doesn’t have to make difficult plays that often.
Over his career thus far
Marcum is at +8 DRS (defensive runs saved), 5 from fielding prowess and 3 from suppressing stolen bases.
So, almost a win, which translates to almost 1/10 of his total career value. Not nearly as insignificant as I was expecting, actually.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Not that I want to discount stats, but I just don’t see how his exceptional fielding would lead to him having better numbers.
For his fielding to make a difference he would have to make a play that an average fielding pitcher would not be able to.
sort of true
that’s only partially correct. Pitchers tend to make a lot of errors. Marcum has never made an error.
While there are flashy things that seem important, such as fielding bunts (which Marcum does exceptionally well), there are other things that are less obvious, like covering first on grounders or double-plays in the first base hole.
according to http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/run_values_of_events/
The run-value of a walk is 0.32 and the run-value of a groundout is -0.24, so if Marcum turns two infield singles into an out per season, that’s worth a run right there
It seems like it shouldn’t add up, but if a pitcher is an excellent fielder it can.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I didn't see the value of an infield single on the list
I did look for it. Did you find it?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Greg Maddux
had likely the best command of any pitcher ever, and he usually pitched to his xFIP, so that’s not likely the reason.
You do know that, due to random variation,
even some players who are not unique because of their skillset will eventually show up as unique.
Additionally, you’re wrong about him beating his xFIP consistently. He hasn’t. There’s been one season where his ERA was much better than his xFIP because he stranded 80% of runners. In each of his other seasons, he’s stranded around 76% of runners. His HR/fly-rates have always been around league-norms (often even a bit worse).
Jamie Shields also commands many different pitches very well and has not “been beating his xFIP consistently.” Do you think it’s more likely that Shields is the outlier amongst that mould or Marcum is (which he really isn’t, as demonstrated above)
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
that's awfully close to average
and he’s a flyballer too, and flyballers tend to have (somewhat) lower BABIPs than groundballers
his babip is actually slightly better --
.269
This isn’t exactly unique, though. Over the course of thousands of players, normal variance dictates that we’ll see some pitchers who have lower babips than would be expected and some will have higher. That’s not necessarily because the pitcher is better (or worse), it’s just an artifact of having a lot of variance and a very large sample.
Also, as benk points out above, Marcum is a pretty extreme flyball-pitcher, which likely contributes some to his low babip.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
.
Yovani Gallardo: Better rate pitcher, has reached 185 innings twice, never higher (Romero pitched 2010 innings last year)
HOLY COW
that's a lot of innings!
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Next Jays game Wed Aug 11th @ SEA
he must've pitched every single game from spring training all the way to the WS game 7.
only way he could pitch 2000 innings, not even sure if thats enough to.
Choose me, Ash!
I think Romero
is our staff ace for sure. His performance this year is probably close to the top half of all #1s in the AL and he’s been very consistent this year only 4 starts under 7 innings. Some of those guys are clearly better, but you’d have a tough time arguing that all those guys are better than him.
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Next Jays game Wed Aug 11th @ SEA
I'd probably add
Felix Hernandez to that list
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Next Jays game Wed Aug 11th @ SEA
Who?
wasn’t that guy like 12-12 last year?
by jaysbrazil on Jun 27, 2011 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
It only took about 30 years ...
for reporters to figure out what baseball fans have always known: that wins and losses are a terrible way to judge a starter (and they’re useless for judging a reliever).
by Defense Counts! on Jun 27, 2011 6:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Nope
Just look at Buck and Pat, some still haven’t figured it out.
If you can't pay em' trade em' and pay for someone else
Ricky's ERA is at 2.74
It’s been amazing to just watch him get better and better.
by Nadia on Jun 27, 2011 9:55 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Each year better then the last.
Great stuff.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Improves all the peripherals year over year too
ERA, BB/9, K/9 … it all just seems to be getting better, and substantially at that.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jun 27, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
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