Jays hit 4 home runs and still lose to Pirates
by Tom Dakers on Jun 29, 2011 1:54 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Minor League Recaps
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PrintThis was a game that was lost on 3 plays. In the 4th, with a runner on first, Matt Diaz hit a pop fly to right that Eric Thames really should have caught and then it bounced over his head and over Corey Patterson's head too (backing up the play). Corey was good to back up the play but he has to know the ball bounces on our turf. If Eric makes that play we likely win.
Next play Garrett Jones grounds to Adam Lind and Jo-Jo Reyes doesn't cover at first. We make that play and we likely win.
Then in the 7th, we had the bases loaded with 1 out, down by just 1 with Adam Lind at the plate. He hits a hard line drive, but it is right at Lyle Overbay for a double play. Had that line drive been five feet to the left, we would have won.
Jo-Jo (do you think, if we all chipped in, we could buy the boy a real name?) was great, for 2 innings. Then he gave up a couple of runs in the 2nd on a Alex Presley home run. Then the wheels fell off in the 4th. If the plays were made, all would have been ok. But a single, the triple that should have been caught, the single that Jo-Jo didn't cover first on, the a soft single, a strikeout, soft single, a fly out, another single and Reyes was removed, after giving up 6 runs. In all Double Jo gave up 9 hits, 6 earned, 1 walk, 6 earned with 5 k.
Our bullpen did a good job. Luiz Perez pitched 3 innings allowing just a solo homer. Octavio Dotel got an out. Shawn Camp and Jon Rauch each pitched a scoreless inning.
Our offense had a pretty good night. Edwin Encarnacion hit 2 home runs. Jose Bautista and Corey Patterson had 1 each. Eric Thames had a single and a triple. Edwin looks pretty locked in at the plate. Thames brings some energy to the 2 spot of the order as well. Yunel Escobar had a single and double. On the flip side Aaron Hill was 0 for 4 hitting into 2 double plays. Juan Rivera was also 0 for 4.
Jays of the Day are Escobar (.206 WPA), EE (.164) and Bautista (.160). Suckage numbers go to Reyes (-.363), Hill (-.253), Lind (-.203), Rivera (-.203) and Thames (-.102), but I can't give Thames a suckage award when he has 2 hits and one of them is a triple.
Part of the fun of the night was to listen to Buck and Pat talk to the parade of folks that were in Toronto to play at Joe Carter's charity golf tournament. They talked to Ozzie Smith, Bo Jackson, Fred McGriff, Joe Carter, Charles Barkley and likely a few others I missed. Many of them looked like they could still play.
Rough loss but at least our offense looked good again. Jose Bautista did fine at 3rd. Thames could have helped us if he had made that one catch but other than that he was ok. It is nice not to have a bunch of easy outs in the line up.
Tomorrow Brandon Morrow (3-4, 4.90) gets the start. Paul Maholm (4-8, 3.21) goes for the Pirates. Lets win.
For some reason we don't have any pictures from tonight's game, I'll look in the morning to see if we have some then.
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Well...
The late innings of that game were fun to watch..but dissapointing in the end.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
Las Vegas Report..
11-4 Win Over Tacoma Rainiers (Mariners Triple-A Affiliate
-Mike McCoy: 2-3, 2 BB, 4 R, 2 SB, .326
-Manny Mayorson: 2-4, 1 BB, 2 R, SB, .307
-David Cooper: 3-4, 2 R, 2B, 1 RBI, BB, .384
-Adam Loewen: 3-4, 2B, 5 RBI, BB, .316
-Chris Woodward: 1-5, 2 SO, .284
-Kevin Howard: 1-5, RBI, SO, .346
-Jason Lane: 3-5, 2 R, 2B, HR, RBI, SO, .262
-Danny Perales: 1-5, 1 R, 3B, .292
-Brian Jeroloman: 1-4, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 SO, .232
Mike Macdonald: 6 IP, 10 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO
Rommie Lewis: 2 IP, 2 SO
Danny Farquhar: 1 IP, 2 H, 1 SO
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
What, no comment about the middle inning (I forget which), where the Jays had the bases loaded and no outs? And then Rivera popped out, and Hill grounded into a DP. IMO, that was worse than all the other plays.
I know it’s only one game, and we have to be patient as fans, but: Reyes’ upside has now been established as a 4th starter as best. AA has bent over backwards trying to give him some value. But Villanueva has clearly passed him, and Litsch is also better. I think that Reyes has to be traded by the trade deadline — the Jays have better pitching options right now (and this doesn’t count Drabek, Stewart, Mills, etc.).
Reyes did get pretty unlucky this game
lots of bloopish hits and poor defense. we should have won… unfortunately we employ Aaron Hill.
Onions Baby Onions
just when i thought you weren't going to say something negative
I don’t know how you can use bad luck as a defensive to Reyes, and then not use it as well to why we lost the game. Linds hit 2 feet in either direction would have won us the game.
Yeah Hill did not have a good night. He was not alone.
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 29, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
he may have saved us a run with that catch, too
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
well, it was in foul territory, wasn't it?
as long as I can remember.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I was thinking of the hump back liner
that he lept, caught and turned into a double play.
that was two days ago and you're right -- it was an awesome play
I was referring to the foul pop that he caught yesterday
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
If AA can't flip J-J for anything of value at the deadline then
Joseph moves to the bullpen.
"Io voglio vandeeeeettaaaa!!!!!"
by Bullpen Lurker on Jun 29, 2011 10:10 AM EDT reply actions
I really don't want to see Reyes out there anymore than he's been
He’s okay at best against mediocre teams, but I cringe at him facing the Rays, Yankees and Sox. It’s just that he has no margin for error. His stuff has to be on and he has to be pitching right in the exact zone (aka down). If he’s not he just gets hammered. But right now we have Romero, Morrow and Cecil along with Villanueva. All 4 are better than him, but right now there isn’t a clear 5th starter who is better than Reyes. So until there is we’ll just have to live with him
he's had two 5 PQS starts against the AL East this year
Reyes is a very useful back of rotation starter. he’s been a helluva lot better than Cecil has in 2011. do you think pitchers with sub-4.5 FIPs/xFIPs grow on trees?
This year the average seems to be 3.90
So yeah, Reyes isn’t that special and Cecil, Litsch and Villanueva seem to be better pitchers (if Cecil’s his old self again).
But to blame Reyes for this loss isn’t especially smart, since he was hurt by balls that weren’t hit hard. That said, his low groundball-rate in that game is a bad sign. Morrow also seems to get hit hard in games where he just doesn’t get groundballs.
really??? 3.9?
that’s way lower than I expected. how did you find that? did you only use qualified starters or something?
besides, the average ERA for a fifth starter is over 5. a FIP of 4.3 from your worst starter is very good.
With the pitching depth the Jays have..
They’ll be shooting for above average starters at every rotation spot imo. Not sure where I found the 3.90.
looking at Fangraphs' ERA-
the actual average ERA is actually around 3.80. And since (x)FIP is scaled to ERA…
While FIP is scaled to ERA
xFIP is scaled to a little bit higher of a value than either of them (I’m not positive on this, but it must be due to slightly overestimating HR/fly-rate?)
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/xfip/
2010 mlb average xFIP = 4.23
2010 mlb average FIP = 4.08
Since mlb average ERA in 2011 is 3.80, I’d say xFIP is likely to be approximately 3.94
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Not far off MLB average
But it underestimates AL average. Also, I think the average ERA of starting pitchers is likely higher than the average ERA of relief pitchers
AL average ERA is actually 3.87. AL average starter ERA is actually 3.91.
Scaling to avg ERA of 3.91, the new estimate is 4.05 as average xFIP
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
so a slightly worse than average starter
considering how attrition and trades have hurt our rotation, that’s hardly something to complain about from a 5th starter
Also, average alone tells us nothing about what to expect from a 5th starter
We need the standard deviation to go along with that, or the average ERA for the 4th and 5th worst starter on each team.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jun 29, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
really bad
the most recent article talking about it (I think jessef showed it to me) had average 5th starter ERA over 5
might be worth trying to write another one now
if it’s the article I referenced, that’s from years ago
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-good-is-your-4-starter/
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
It is probably a bit lower then that now
Just doing a sniff test, in terms of xFIP, Jo-Jo would rank out of the top 5 for most teams I looked at other the the Red Sox (Yankees, Braves, Athletics, Rangers). For Jays starters, he ranks 6th right now (Litsch, Stewart, Romero, Morrow, and Villaneuva are beating him).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jun 29, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course SSS applies
but he may very well be a below average 5th starter in today’s hitting climate.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jun 29, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
there are plenty of factors at play here
screw it, i’m doing a post. ecology can wait ’till tomorrow
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Morrow never gets grounders
I think we’ve covered this ground before. He could probably keep the ball on the ground better but — at this point — that would be at the cost of getting them to swing and miss less. Given that his fastball sits around 94, it does seem like he could afford to go two-seamer and try and get them to swing over top but that’s up to him and the Jays coaching staff
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
slightly more than half a mile per hour
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/11/18/1822678/king-felixs-2010
It doesn’t sound like much, but it’s roughly the difference in velocity this season between A.J. Burnett’s fastball and Brad Penny’s
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
it's not that bad
but if he could get, say, 45%, he’d be absolutely dominant, and presumably his walks (and Ks, too) would decline from more early-count outs
and he'd get deeper into games
and induce some double plays.
Of course, it’s easy for us to be armchair pitching coaches. I’m sure that the he and the Jays coaching staff have discussed adding two-seamers (and other ways of trying to generate grounders) to his repertoire
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
fred mcgriff was awesome. seems like a hilarious guy to hang out with.
by HabsFanInCalgary! on Jun 29, 2011 10:22 AM EDT reply actions
Thames...
Glad the guy had a good hitting game, but I still think he deserves the suckage award for the game losing play. That, or Patterson for being a bonehead for a defender.
While I did not actually see the play, from the radio play-by-play, Thames made a mistake by pulling up at the last second. By making the last second decision, he was caught in no-man’s land where he could not catch the ball and he was too close to handle it on the bounce. A rookie mistake and forgivable, especially in light of his relative unfamiliarity of playing on plastic. Patterson’s mistake of being too close to the fielder is less forgivable. He should know better about where he should be to back up the play.
While Patterson has the speed to play CF, there’s plenty of evidence that he does not have the mindset to do so.
those radio guys are pretty good
thats what happened. I agree CoPa should have been further back
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 29, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
For clarity
Thames mistake was making the last second decision. He should have decided to go for it or lay back earlier than he did.
If Rogers would just use the radio play-by-play with the TV, I’d be a happy listener.
I know it's en vogue to plame Patterson for everything
He was backing the play, ball glanced off Thames glove and over Pattersons head, while Patterson was running full out. I hate people who sit on the couch and judge someone who has played the position maybe a handfull of times all year. Thames didn’t know what the hell he was doing, how was Patterson supposed to know what Thames was going to do?!?!?
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jun 29, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
agree with you on this one
I found that it’s often harder to back up a fielder than it is to make the play yourself. Particularly when you have hardly played with him
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
he was in line with thames, instead of a good distance away. Yes, he was backup up the play, he was actually there, but it wasn’t done that effectively.
No he wasn’t the main guy to blame on the play, it was thames.
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 29, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Did we boo Overbay?
Didn’t catch the game on TV
not as bad as Rios Got.
Minor leaguer was behind home plate, and said they started to boo, but he got them to change to cheers.
Or something like that
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 29, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think he deserves to be booed
Even if he stunk :-)
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