Confidence in the Second Half of the Blue Jays Season.
by Tom Dakers on Jun 30, 2011 12:21 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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It doesn't really seem possible, but we are half way through the season. A bit of a roller coaster ride has us at a 40-41 record. Not great, not terrible. Considering the division and all that has gone on not so bad. We've had some good games and some awful games. At times the offense has been very good, and other times not. Same with the starting pitching and same with the bullpen.
At the moment, I'm feeling pretty confident, going into the second half of the season. Why? Because I get the feeling that we are going to stop settling for the safe move and start taking some chances. What moves are safe and what aren't:
- Using Jayson Nix at third. That was safe. He's a 'veteran', you knew exactly what he was going to give you, not much, but you knew what you had. Finally, the team decided to bring up Brett Lawrie, not the safe move. We can't be sure what he would give us, it was a risk. Course, he gets hurt. So the team decides to move Jose Bautista to the spot. Now I don't really agree with the move. I think he is happier in RF, so I'd leave him there. But moving him is a risk. It is something. It's it miles better than sticking with the safe choice of Nix. It could turn out bad but at least but there is the chance of good.
- Using Corey Patterson and Rajai Davis is safe. They have been around the league for awhile. In Patterson's case you knew what you were going to get, someone that looks the part of an outfielder. Will look good for a week or two but in the long run isn't someone, that a team that wants to win, will be using everyday. Davis? Well he has had a couple of decent seasons, so there was hope he could be ok. I don't mind one of them in the lineup, but using both of them seems like you are hoping for way too much.
- I'm so glad they have brought Eric Thames up again. I didn't understand why they sent him down after his first shot. Yeah, putting him in right field is a risk. Yep, he'll make mistakes and Buck and Pat will do ten minutes on how rookies make mistakes and if you had a veteran there you wouldn't see that. But veterans make mistakes too. At least with Thames there is a chance of something good coming out of it.
- I like the idea of trying Travis Snider in CF. He has good speed, he moves well in the outfield. He isn't the safe choice. It would be safer just to run Davis and Patterson out there, but we know what we have in them, and they aren't going to help us win. Snider might not do a good job there, but at least there is the chance he could help the team win. I know, every mistake he makes people will be saying 'I told you he wasn't a CFer', but I'd rather deal with mistakes from someone that can help than watch someone be perfect that can't help.
- I'm also glad that Brett Cecil is back and, I'm hoping, Jesse Litsch isn't far behind. Jo-Jo Reyes and Carlos Villanueva have done good a good job in the rotation. They have both surprised me. Jo-Jo can be pretty good when he is hitting the bottom of the strike zone. Carlos I do like for that swing man role, long relief and occasional start, when needed. But I really don't see either of them being part of our rotation when we are ready to contend so I'm glad we are going to get a chance to see what Cecil can do for us.
I hope that the second half will be time to take some risks, call up some guys and give them long looks. I'm really not sold that Adam Loewen is much of a prospect but I'd rather give him playing time than Juan Rivera. Give him 100 or 150 at bats and see what happens. And, of course, as soon as Brett Lawrie shows he is healthy, let's get him up here and let him get used to the majors. And why not bring David Cooper back, give him a reasonable number of at bats, instead of just 33 and let him show what he can do?
So I'm happy with the direction of the team, going into the second half. I'm confident that trying out some players is the way to go. We might not win as much, though I think we will, but it should be more fun to watch young guys that have a chance.
I mean, isn't it more fun watching Eric Thames bat second than Corey Patterson. Maybe Thames won't turn out to be any better than Patterson but I think it is more fun watching him.
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Two things. First, I don’t think the Jays were “playing it safe” during the first half. I think they just wanted to give the young players a reasonable amount of time in AAA. I know that we, as fans, want to see the prospects, but it may well be better for them to take some time before coming to the majors. But they may well be ready now (or soon).
Second, I don’t agree with you about Villanueva vs. Litsch. I think that Villanueva is simply better, and I wouldn’t be disappointed if Litsch is sent to AAA upon his return from the DL.
Apart from these comments, I agree with everything you’ve said.
I'm not so sure...
That if Patterson and Davis hadn’t spent the entire month flailing pointlessly at pitches, they’d be looking at moving Moonraker to CF. It’s a bit of a desperation move and a bit of inspired thinking born from the fact that the Jays really don’t have a CF in their minors whose bat is ready.
If it works there’s been a lot of good luck (disguised as bad) in that Moonraker was in a terrible power slump and had to be sent down, he got injured just when it seems he could be recalled but not with an injury that affects him physically (assuming he hasn’t had enduring complications), Patterson and Davis stunk for a month, and some bright person in the Jays organization figures that, since Moonraker is already down in Vegas, the team might as well find out if he can play CF while he is there.
FWIW, BR has him with a 1.75 range rating in 4 games (SSS warnings apply)
Interestingly, Adam Loewen has played 11 games in CF now and his range rating was in line with many of the other CFs that Vegas has used including Pods and Wise. Even if Moonraker does not work out, Loewen might be a better alternative to a struggling Patterson or Davis.
Ive heard loewen is a bad fielder at the corner OF
Choose me, Ash!
by Pikachu on Jun 30, 2011 1:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would really like to hear or read where you get this from
In all honesty I would. You’ve been saying it for awhile and I would just like to know where it’s coming from.
I know it's the best we have
by scouting reports (even armchair scouts’) are a lot more useful than 4 games of range factor, which is a terrible indicator of defensive ability at the best of times
In terms of Villanueva vs Litsch I think it should rather be Litsch versus Reyes with Reyes going to the bullpen. Even if Villanueva isn’t a long term option he has looked pretty good to me as a starter, and seems to me a better trade option than Reyes anyways. I think they should be pushing hard to move Reyes and even Villanueva before the deadline.
I’d rather see Davis than Patterson as a stop gap. Wouldn’t mind if Patterson is moved and Davis is sent down to figure out his swing. I agree that the Jays haven’t taken enough risks particularly when it comes to Cooper. When Lind was down he should have gotten all the at bats at 1B instead of being sent down after 33 bats where his line wasn’t great but he clearly wasn’t being overmatched and striking out. With EE’s numbers as a DH I’m concerned that his lack of offense was mostly mental, and that he shouldn’t be packaged now until we give him another 150 more AB, and so I don’t know what to do with Cooper. But I really want to see some of our young hitters and possibly Carreno sometime before the year is out.
Re Cooper.
At times he did look a little overmatched, but it was his own doing. He said in an articule (Review Journal) that he went out of his swing zone (paraphrasing) going after pitches up in the zone. I remember Adam Lind doing the same thing way back when. I think though, that he could do much better when he comes back, as he now has a better undersanding of things.
There's no way Carlos will continue on in the starting rotation.
He’s already pitched 20 more innings than he did all of last year. I think they’re going to shut him down, or use him lightly.
Not that it needs to be said
But how about some confidence in AA? Rivera is absolutely raking compared to Wells, and Francisco is gaining some momentum too. Wells’ value was never going to be any higher, great move.
by scrambles the death dealer on Jun 30, 2011 1:24 PM EDT reply actions
I wouldn't use the word 'Safe'
I think the best way to discribe the first half of the Jays season is ‘treading water’. They had a number of injuries and a number of developments that forced things like Nix coming into a regular role at third and Patterson in the lineup every day. Cecil’s demotion and Litsch’s injury brought Reyes and Villaneuva into the rotation. I actually like the fact that it didn’t panic the Jays into promoting anyone prematurely – they waited until they felt the player forced their hand, not that the main club needs to try any solution.
I think the Jays have stitched together a decent first half with a lot of guys who were supposed to be bench players exposed as regular players. With guys coming back and people like Thames looking like they might stick, and a rotation coming together, I think we can have a very strong second half.
.600 ball?
Only the Phillies and Yankees have done that so far… you really think the Jays can do that with some young callups?
Yup
Our schedule is dominated by home games in the second half, Morrow seems to have turned the same corner he did at this time last year, and our bats seem to be coming around. So I don’t think that the jays going 48-33 in the second half to be out of the realm of possibility.
Anything over .500 would be great, as long as the youngsters are developing.
There’s no point in playing slightly winning ball if the prospects are just treading water. I’d rather be losing with developing youngsters than breaking even with veterans.
by Defense Counts! on Jun 30, 2011 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d rather guys are developing where they’re best positioned to learn and succeed. I’ve personally never been an advocate of always letting someone develop at the big league level. There’s some ball players that works for, but for others, it can mess with their heads and with their development for the long term. If you have a guy that you think needs to struggle in the majors to hit his potential, go ahead and call him up. But if you’ve got a guy who that kind of exposure might actively hurt, I’ve got no problems leaving him down and plugging the gap with a veteren, or a player that is a long shot but could contribute.
I'm waiting impatiently
to see more of the young guys in the lineup (Snider, Lawrie, maybe Cooper). I believe it’ll be Sept. for a couple of other guys (Loewen, maybe Carreno). Maybe there’ll be a surprise (my darkhorse) in a callup possibility. I’m thinking of Moises Sierra. Good bat and excellent arm. Ya never know..
You know what's safe and worthwile?
Eric Thames’ beard.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
by Frag on Jun 30, 2011 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 6 recs
It was a mistake not to ride the LAWRIE EXPRESS to the majors after spring training...
Who knows what would have happened, but I think there is a danger of leaving a hot prospect down in the farm system for too long for any club.
I also would like to see David Cooper a lot more. I mean, he’s decent enough at 1B and I would much rather see him than Rivera/Encarnacion backing up Lind. He’s also a good batter, and 33 ABs doesn’t tell you anything.
I don’t agree with Villanueva. I like him as a starter. He’s 5-1, 3.16 with decent numbers across the board; better numbers than JoJo or Litch. My vote is to let him stay a starter.
by Marcos Montenegro on Jun 30, 2011 2:40 PM EDT reply actions
IMHO
Two months is not too long to leave a hot prospect in the minors when that prospect is learning a new position. The Jays wanted to make sure that he could handle it first before promoting him. While he was down there, the Jays also asked him to show more patience at the plate. He would have been exploited at the majors so Vegas was a good location for him to work on that.
Drabek is the counter example to Lawrie. Perhaps he should have started in Vegas after all.
I agree that there is a fine line
between leaving them down there too long, and not long enough. But I am hard pressed to say the Jays waited too long with Lawrie considering he is just 21, had good but not great numbers at AA the year before, never played a game at AAA in his career before this year, and was learning a new position. If anything, 2 months seems a bit short (though I am happy he is coming up).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jun 30, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know about the risk taking thing
as someone mentioned above, it all kind of reeks of desperation, in my opinion. Is no one else scared that putting Travis Snider in CF, a position he’s played a total of something like a half dozen games of in his pro career, could turn out to be a disaster? It just seems strange to me, to take a player who has been having pretty serious problems at the plate, and tell him, “OK, back to the majors! Let’s see you hit big league pitching… and by the way, you’re going to learn CF while you’re at it.”
Surely this isn’t necessary for a team that is playing .500 ball in the AL’s toughest division. I understand that the alternatives aren’t very enticing, but what’s up with this team and the sudden changes of heart regarding players and their positions?
Some people expressed similar concerns regarding Lind playing 1st.
He seems to be holding his own. Snider has enough athleticism to handle CF imo. The scenario you’re describing is incorrect. Yes he was sent down because of problems at the plate, but reports have indicated that his has corrected the flaw. You make it seem like they’re piling it on him and I don’t think that’s the case at all.
fair enough
but I think he comes back with something to prove after the slow start and the demotion.
Everything I’ve read indicates that he does have the composure to handle it, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine that he could hit a rough patch at the plate somewhere, and if that’s compounded with a couple of bad errors or some difficulties in the field, what does that do to a young ballplayer? I don’t think there is any intention to send him back to Vegas again.
My point is that it seems unnecessary unless you truly believe Travis is a long-term solution at CF. If the organization really believed that, why has he played the corners throughout his pro career? You’re quite right that people were worried about Lind at 1B, but I wonder if that’s an apples and oranges comparison. Not to say that first base isn’t a tough position to play, but it does seem to be a place to stick players that don’t really have a spot elsewhere on the field – centre field isn’t quite the same. Again, it just doesn’t seem necessary, at least not until you can be sure his bat is where we want it to be.
I understand you points
The comparison might be unfair, but it more for the point being capable, which I think he is. Long term, no I don’t believe (at this time) he is the permanent answer, but until we do come up with one I think he has the ability to do it.
i don't doubt he can play CF adequately
but he hasn’t exactly been a model of health. and I do believe CF is a lot more rigorous than the corner OF. Just my opinion.
Choose me, Ash!
Don't disagree, it probably is more rigorous
But, and I ask this in all earnest, has he had problems with his knees, legs, or feet? You say he hasn’t exactly been a model of health, so I’m just wondering.
I don't think so
my memory isn’t perfect, but I think it’s been mostly nicks and non-lower body injuries (wrist last year, maybe one hamstring injury?)
Cameron dumped by Sox...
Worth taking a shot despite his numbers, dump one of the bench guys, ideally Nix…?
At this point, I think the Jays have nothing to lose in playing the young guys.
I didn’t expect a lot from this team but they aren’t disappointing by far as it has been a learning year. Our manager is a rookie, the team is fairly young. One thing I noticed is that they haven’t been on a really big tear. Much like last year and roughly at the same record.
As much as Nix’s “unclutch” hitting can infuriate, he wasn’t a bad pickup for a few hundred thousand bucks and was pretty much doing what he was supposed to do (no Jedi turnaround for him.)
The Jays have some pieces that could go to contenders for a low price like Juan Rivera or EE (but you never know though.)
Only thing that bothers me is the mental mistakes (Patterson, sometimes Escobar and even you Jedi) bound to happen over a 162 game season but still too many.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jun 30, 2011 3:34 PM EDT reply actions
a replacement player is not a bad pickup for a necessary stopgap
but Nix is terrible, and shouldn’t really be in the Majors once we have a competent baseball player at third (read: right now)
At this point, I think the Jays have nothing to lose in playing the young guys
Oh, but they do. They have to carefully gauge each player’s development. If a player is promoted before he is ready, he will fail miserably, and this could retard his development. It’s like school: you wouldn’t put a 3rd-grader in 5th grade and expect him to do well. It’s similar (though not exactly the same) with baseball players. In general, players shouldn’t be promoted before they’re ready (despite the fact that the fans are clamouring for them :-). Still, it seems to me that the Jays have been very careful about this, which gives me confidence.
way to play to the sponsors!
which gives me confidence
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Fun facts
MWL FIP Leader: Drew Hutchison
NWL FIP Leader: Justin Nicolino
APP FIP Leader: Noah Syndergaard
GCL FIP Leader: Griffin Murphy
Dominating the lower minors! (yeah yeah short-season is only just underway, but this list is pretty cool)
Paints a pretty picture, don't it?
Can’t wait for these kids to graduate. Gonna be another 3-5 years :(
If Nestor Molina had been just a bit more stingy with the homers..
He might’ve lead his league in FIP too.
Complaining about Molina, woodman?
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
He's obviously one lazy latino as he's only struck out 6 over his last two starts
I’m expecting 6 in a single start.
do you know what "normal" HR/fly-rates are in the minors?
I have no idea
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
yeah I'm not sure if xFIP is a good idea there
but to answer Pikachu, there’s no xFIP for the minors, no.
I guess you could just go with average HR/fly-rates
for each league? Complicating matters, though, I would think minor league park effects would be greater than major league ones (though I may be wrong)
I don’t know where to find those data, but I’d imagine they’re somewhere.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Well said, Tom
I really can’t see why Trevor as a CF is getting so much resistance around here.
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
I want our pitchers to have a good defense behind them
So they can go more innings and in some cases build up trade value because of a good ERA.
Travis stole some bases in the majors. He seems to have some speed. Is it a given conclusion that he would be a bad center fielder?
to be a centrefielder,
i’d say you’d need either great speed and good instincts or great instincts and decent speed
Considering Snider’s speed, I’d say he needs great instincts, but — assuming Travis has the instincts (which I’m not sure he does) — he has the speed.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
probably confirmation bias rampant here
but he looks to me to have improved his defense by leaps and bounds since he came up.
Yes
I didn’t mean that to say that I don’t think Snider can handle CF. All I meant was that I haven’t seen enough of him (particularly in centre, obviously) to feel like I’m sure he’s good enough. defensive metrics from last year suggest that he should perform at least acceptably but we’ll see
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Completely off topic
But I just read over on the Mets blog that one of their players, Willie Harris, and his wife lost their baby after she went into premature labour. Sad news.
I'm thinking that when the Leafs win the Cup, I'll lose my drinking problem.
by leafsfan4life94 on Jun 30, 2011 5:15 PM EDT reply actions
Hey Mike Wilner just tweeted this
“How it works with McGowan: if he’s not ready after 30 days, would be “inactive” for 7 days then start another 30-day rehab"
I always thought they would have to make a decision after 30days to either put him on the 25 man or pass him through waivers. I didn’t know they can have him in another 30 days rehab, is this true?
Here’s an article about everyone’s favorite GM. Dunno if you caught it, but it’s very well written and talks about the Jays turnaround the year and a half.
Worth a read.
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