View From the Other Side: Questions for Will McDonald of Royals Review
by Tom Dakers on Jun 6, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
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PrintAs well as the draft, we have a 4 game series starting with the Royals today, so I sent some questions off to Will McDonald of Royals Review, SB Nation's Kansas City Royals blog.
Who has been your early season MVP?
I guess by WAR it has been Alex Gordon. I was tempted to answer with Melky Cabrera as well, but his defensive numbers have been terrible. Certainly none of the pitchers are worth talking about, although Collins and Crow have had their moments.
You guys called up Eric Hosmer, how has he looked?
The consensus is that he's looked good and ready. He got off to a very good start, i.e. his first three or four games, which makes a big difference in these matters. The fact that he's holding his own power-wise at such a young age is very encouraging.
Former top prospect Alex Gordon is finally playing like top prospect. What's changed for him?
Not much really. He's having more luck/success on BABIP, which has swung the overall triple slash around. He's walking and striking out less, so really it's all about the batting average. His BABIP is up from .250 last year to .330 this year. That's basically it. I don't really think he's much different, and if his walk rate is down for good, he might actually be getting worse long-term. Defensively, he's been better than expected, which has been nice.
Can we have a quick scouting report of the starting pitchers the Jays going to face?
Short answer: don't worry about it. Looking at the schedule, you're facing someone named Paulino on Monday and TBD on Tuesday. Nice start to a week. Danny Duffy will be a fun watch on Wednesday. I'm terrible on the scouting report type stuff, I'm afraid. Duffy's been a highly-touted young arm that's a big part of the team's path to contention, though he hasn't been fantastic thus far.
Joakim Soria is having a rough start to the year. What's going on with him? Is he going to lose the closer job?
More or less, he already has lost it. Lots of theories on Soria, who has looked "off" from the beginning. His strikeout/swinging strike numbers have been down, his command has been lacking, he's been inconsistent. Some think he's injured, some think he's "lost it" (whatever that might mean) some think he's screwing around with new pitches, etc. The current plan, which I truly don't understand, is that he's no longer the closer, and that when possible he's going to throw two inning stints to try to figure things out. OK then.
The Royals have a bunch a very good looking prospects, are Royals fans buying into the future is bright?
Yes and no. The prospect thing is never going to be fully a driver for mainstream and casual fans. The hardcore fans are excited, partially for good reason, partially out of hope, however. But there's years of accumulated ill will and despair and bitterness too. Lots of default skepticism that "we've heard about prospects before." Which is both true and not true. Still, being skeptical about prospects, of any team, is a nice default position to have.
Anything else we should know about the Royals. You guys wouldn't like to trade divisions would you?
Probably not, although I think in some sense it would be fun being in the AL East. Personally, I'm starting to get burnt out on millions of games against Cleveland and Detroit and the rest. As a pure fan, more Yankee and Red Sox games would be fun, at least for awhile. As for the other question, the Royal bullpen is exciting to watch at times, as its filled with interesting young arms. And Hosmer. Can't forget about him.
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Short answer: don't worry about it
I really hope this bodes well for the Jays bats.
Optimism
I hope that the Jays and Royals will have a 30th anniversary rematch of the 1985 ALCS (of course with the Jays winning this time)
I don't steal when Jose Bautista is at bat.
Hopefully no more windblown bases loaded triples.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jun 6, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully the Jays can figure out Billy Butler who kills Jays pitching
I’m kind of leery about Royals. They stink right now, but generally play the Jays tough.
Too bad about Soria. He was/is an out machine.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jun 6, 2011 12:43 PM EDT reply actions
in 39 plate appearances
with a .227 BABIP. call Pat Tabler I think he could use some more useless stats
by benk on Jun 6, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Adam Lind has a triple slash of 000/125/000 when he’s playing in the field at Kauffman stadium.
I don’t like those odds, maybe we should DH this game?
Me?
I’d rather he play 1B, like he has for most of this year.
In spacious Kauffman, Patterson is my LF of choice. I’ll give him credit, he has played much better than I expected.
TIMMY!
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
yeah they are awesome
i wish the other blogs would ask tom questions so we can read those too
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 6, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
not like we wouldn’t have an idea of his answers… but maybe they ask something weird or whatever….
It made sense at first !! =/
by bowling_kid25 on Jun 6, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah sometimes they do, sometimes not.
and sometime the other blogger doesn’t have time to answer my questions. Or perhaps doesn’t like me,
Now now Tom.
Can’t imagine anyone not like’n you.
So...division switch trade accepted?
Let’s get started on the paperwork.
by Joffrey's Loop Hole on Jun 6, 2011 1:40 PM EDT reply actions
wonder what they think of Tiny Tim.
It seems like he has done well so far. I love Escobar and would do the trade again but I sure miss pulling for Tim. If he wasn’t the guy you rooted for the most in the minors than you might be the devil.
Witnessed Playoffs last: April 28, 2008
Sincerely yours, Tortured T.O Fan
oh my god when will people stop saying this
I get he’s short and all but he’s walking 7 guys per nine innings and not even posting the crazy 13+ per nine K numbers he was always putting up in the Minors (though without the walks, 9 Ks per 9 is quite good). he’s getting unbelievably lucky.
ERA of 2.78, FIP of 3.77, and xFIP of 4.61.
by benk on Jun 6, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
oh my god when will people quit shitting on people with advances stats.
Honestly, it makes BBB less enjoyable. (This isn’d directed at you benk per se)
Every day, every post, someone makes a comment that "Player ‘x’ is doing well or player ‘y’ is struggling, and someone has to jump down their throat quoting their xFIP or some other stat that they read on Fangraphs. Well take it over to Fangraphs. I get the advances baseball stats but not to the extent that it’s taking over baseball discussions. At some point we don’t even need to watch the games, just read about it in the boxscores.
“Oh, Corey Patteron went 5/5 today, he played well” – Commenter #1
“OH MY GOD, NO HE DIDN’T, HE SUCKS BECAUSE HIS LD% WAS 12.3454234%” – Commenter #2
It’s getting a little tiresome especially when it’s cloaked with an air of “if you look at batting average for hitters or wins per for pitchers, you are an idiot”.
An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – for support rather than for illumination.
...and make sure you vote for Jose
by craig in calgary on Jun 6, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 6 recs
This comment is just ignorant IMO
advanced stats tell the true story. the guy isn’t pitching that well and is getting lucky. He is not a dominant RP (yet)… he is doing well but has been lucky.
Advanced stats are perfectly legitimate and tell a truer story of whats actually going on. Your example of people coming in and saying that when someone goes 5/5 they’re actually sucking.
People use advanced stats to get a better idea of a players actual performance. You can look at guys FIP and xFIP etc. to get an idea of what to expect from them for the rest of the season. Should we just give up on them and say Jo-Jo Reyes is the worst pitcher ever because he didn’t win some games?
Onions Baby Onions
by ohmybosh on Jun 6, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not saying don't use them.
But it’s how you use them and how you come across when presenting them.
...and make sure you vote for Jose
by craig in calgary on Jun 6, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
fair enough
i do think that looking at things like pitcher wins is completely useless when compared to much more effective stats for juding a players effectiveness.
Onions Baby Onions
True
I’m not saying to rely on conventional stats either.
Stats, whether conventional or advances should enhance your argument, not be your argument.
I often hear batters or pitchers aren’t good, they are lucky….or visa versa if they are unlucky.
It doesn’t have to be so black and white, just because the stats support it. Maybe Tim Collins is actually having a very fine year and pitching well, who cares if his advances stats say he’s “lucky”…if the universe corrects itself, it will come out in the wash, it doesn’t warrant an “AARRRRGGG HE SUCKS” argument.
...and make sure you vote for Jose
by craig in calgary on Jun 6, 2011 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
i think advanced stats can be used to form a very good argument
for example:
lets say player A is hitting .350/.380/.500
You could say player A is better. Or, you could look at advanced stats, and perhaps player A’s BABIP is .450, his LD% is 15, and his HR/FB rate is 25%…
Those stats are all you need to make the argument that player A is not going to continue to perform at his current rate.
Onions Baby Onions
okay, really?
he’s walking 7 guys per nine innings. that’s not an advanced statistic, but it’s terrible
looking back
this is what I should have said:
Tim Collins has done a good job of not allowing runs. however, a great deal of his success has likely been due to “luck” or “random variation” or whatever you want to call it, given how few (zero) pitchers can be successful while walking so many batters. Tim Collins, looking closely, is unlikely to continue being as effective as he has been thus far unless he improves his walk rate.
but instead of saying all that, I’m just going to use stats that demonstrate my point in a much more intuitive and readable format
by benk on Jun 6, 2011 8:40 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, I don’t agree. I enjoy BBB precisely because advanced stats are discussed. I would even go further: I think the advantages/disadvantages of these stats are worth discussing, much more than XXX rocks! (there are other forums for these comments (yawn!)).
That said, I don’t agree with benk’s analysis. Leaving aside the small sample size (:-), in addition to the large number of BB’s, Collins has also given up a small number of hits (20) In 32.1 IP. I think the relevant question is not whether or not he has been lucky, but rather what he’s likely to do in the future. Is the number of hits going to increase, but the BB’s remain constant, in which case he will certainly be less effective. Or, will the number of BB’s decrease, with the same hit prevention, in which case Collins will be extremely good. Here, stats, advanced or otherwise, will not help — direct observation would be useful. I think the jury is out on Collins, but he’s definitely an interesting pitcher to watch.
I think
The terms “luck” and “what he’s likely to do in the future” are essentially the same things – luck speaks to a player’s performance relative to [the mean/the 25th percentile, 75th percentile, etc], which in turn tells you whether his level of performance is likely to be sustainable (ie what to expect in the future). Stats like this necessarily only deal with the short- to medium-term, as luck and regression to the mean can’t account for the development of a player’s skills, they simply serve to tell us what to expect from a player while holding his true talent relatively constant.
The holy crusader of internal logical consistency
its not really "advanced" stats
ERA used to be an advanced stat, and peopled laughed at the idea. Now its the norm Anyways, whether you like it or not craig, FIP, BABIP, and WAR are going to become to the norm.
Choose me, Ash!
by Pikachu on Jun 6, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Again.
I don’t hate those stats. I don’t like the way that people chose to undermine others opinions with these stats. There is no reason Collins can’t be good, AND lucky. Hill has been unlucky now for 1.5 years? When does hes stop being “unlucky” and start being nothing more than a replacement level 2nd baseman?
...and make sure you vote for Jose
by craig in calgary on Jun 6, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
when he stops hitting line drives 21.8% of the time and getting only 1.5% of his flyballs to leave yard?
Choose me, Ash!
by Pikachu on Jun 6, 2011 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
and I do agree with you
I think people who use “advance” stats (myself included) do come off as annoying, but understand that its not our fault, or yours, but rather the stupidity of ESPN/MLB/Whatever as still using W-L records, ’clutch"(which is still debatable i guess), and “grit” as if they are very very important things.
Choose me, Ash!
I don't think they are annoying
I’ve actually learned alot. (Love the WPA and WAR stats, think the BABIP stat is stupid and unreliable)
What comes across as annoying (and might be the reason my comment is green) is when a commenter makes an observation and is made to feel stupid for using the traditional stat or not being knowledgable enough to understand the advanced metrics. Doesn’t really give the feeling of a “living room” atmopshere that the “powers that be” are looking for.
...and make sure you vote for Jose
by craig in calgary on Jun 6, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
In summation:
Advanced metrics: Not annoying
Overreliance of any stat: Very annoying
...and make sure you vote for Jose
by craig in calgary on Jun 6, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
but I don't understand what you mean by overreliance
we’ve been using "traditional’ stats for years. Thats the only stats that we had available. Didn’t we overrely on those stats too?
Choose me, Ash!
agreed. Amazed at how Collins gets so much love.
I wonder how much attentioned he’d get if he was 6 foot 3
Choose me, Ash!
comparison for comparison's sakes
Player A: 8.91 K/9 6.96 BB/9 0.28 HR/9 3.77 FIP 4.61 xFIP
Player B: 5.91 K/9 3.09 BB/9 0.81 HR/9 4.09 FIP 4.62 xFIP
Player A is Tiny Tim. Player B is Jo-Jo.
Choose me, Ash!
Player C
Is Daniel Cabrera, he of the high K/9 and BB/9, who, when he tried to lower his BB rate, hurt his K rate so much that he’s been out of the majors since 2009.
The holy crusader of internal logical consistency
also he's 6'9/258
and thus is interesting for looking not like regular MLBers.
The holy crusader of internal logical consistency
With all due respect to the SB Nation's Kansas City Royals blog....
…it might be time to solicit multiple views from the other side and go with the most informative because I could have added more depth and perspective than was forthcoming from Royals Review. Not trying to be negative, it just seemed overly general and spartan and not in a good way. :(
Definitely pretty down on the team
Maybe if they were playing better he would have been more forthcoming?!
by LimeyJaysFan on Jun 6, 2011 4:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Maybe...
but I would have liked to have heard about Francouer, Francis, and whether the call ups, other than Hosmer, have been been performing as hoped. I guess it just seemed minimalist for a team that to this point in the season has been at least a bit of a surprise.
by freethinkinged on Jun 6, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Don’t take me the wrong way here, but the solution to your problem is quite simple:
1. Put together a few questions
2. Go to their blog, and scroll down to find Managers/authors/editors (or just pick someone who recently wrote a good fanpost)
3. e-mail them the questions
4. post the answers.
I’m sure Tom would be happy to get your help. He might even share his cheese doodles with you…
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
I hope my comments were not taken offensively. They were not intended to reflect badly on Paul or BB.....
its just that I thought SB Nation affiliates were like a fraternity and would be more likely to take the time to respond to fellow affiliates. The quality of this response makes me think otherwise.
Given that there are lots of eager bloggers (in this case KC Royals) that don’t have the designation of being the official SB nation affiliate, I thought perhaps many would jump at the chance for their opinions to reach a wider audience and therefore contribute greater perspective. While I don’t doubt I could seek these opinions myself I think the quality and likelihood of the response would be greatly enhanced if it came as an official request from BB. If Tom wants to give me a BB email address I would have no problem approaching other city relevant bloggers and forward these responses to be posted as he sees fit. :)
by freethinkinged on Jun 6, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't see why your comments would be taken offensively
It’s just that in order to put them into practice, one should initiate, like Tom does. Or Woodman. or Masterkembo. Or even JohnnyG (usually initiates with the banhammer, that man…)
That’s a good idea you have, to approach blogs outside of SBnation. Any volunteers?
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
It is tough, all the bloggers are too busy with their own stuff.
I try not too ask too much, I’m the same, I get asked for things from other blogs, but sometimes I’d rather spend time on my blog. Also if the team isn’t doing well, it is tough to expect much, which I understand. I’ve gotten questions when the team isn’t doing well and I just don’t want to answer.
My favorite one ever was questions I sent to the White Sox blogger. He just wrote back here is my scouting report, “we SUCK”. Then after we swept the series he wrote against and said ‘told you’.
We all have our stuff happening and we all have moments when we aren’t thrilled with our team or we could use a break from it all.
LMAO...
…brutal but honest!
Last word from me on this, just cause I really like View from the Other Side, maybe we could try a point counter point approach. 2 bloggers that have different perspectives on their teams going at it with links back to their blogs to motivate and satisfy self interest.
Just thinking out loud. :)
by freethinkinged on Jun 6, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
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