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Around SBN: Despite Relocation Drama, Coyotes Overcome Adversity

I Seek to Understand Me

Quick diversion from the draft just for a moment.  Craig made this point in a comment in a thread earlier today and I think it's important enough to talk about some more, not because it is wrong -- in fact, I think it gets to an important point   Here's his post:

Oh my god when will people quit sh*tting on people with advanced stats.

 

Honestly, it makes BBB less enjoyable. (This isn’t directed at you benk per se)

Every day, every post, someone makes a comment that "Player ‘x’ is doing well or player ‘y’ is struggling, and someone has to jump down their throat quoting their xFIP or some other stat that they read on Fangraphs. Well take it over to Fangraphs. I get the advances baseball stats but not to the extent that it’s taking over baseball discussions. At some point we don’t even need to watch the games, just read about it in the boxscores.

"Oh, Corey Patteron went 5/5 today, he played well" – Commenter #1
"OH MY GOD, NO HE DIDN’T, HE SUCKS BECAUSE HIS LD% WAS 12.3454234%" – Commenter #2

It’s getting a little tiresome especially when it’s cloaked with an air of "if you look at batting average for hitters or wins per for pitchers, you are an idiot".

An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts – for support rather than for illumination

 

The problem with this line of reasoning is that then when someone makes an argument using statistics, Craig would have to commit to doing them the same courtesy and not arguing back based on his first-hand observations.  Neither one of those is reasonable and it isn't acceptable for either to be condescending.  I admit I have less patience for people who are condescending to sabermetrics, because, well, they're just more wrong (j/k!), but everyone needs to be able to express their viewpoint without acting as though the other has nothing important to say.  There was a time when folks inclined to sabermetrics were a small minority on the site and bore the brunt of the abuse; now it's about 50/50 or so.  

See, the great thing about baseball is everyone can enjoy it in their own way. The most fun I've had watching baseball was when I knew absolutely nothing about advanced stats.  At the same time, my scientist's brain always needs to understand as much about everything as possible and has driven me to better understand the nuances of the game I have always loved.  

Some people can watch every game, never know a stat beyond those that pop up on the tv screen, and love it.  My mom's brothers are some of the biggest baseball fans I have ever known, and they think Derek Jeter deserved every one of his gold gloves.  Another fan can be the hardest-core sabermetrician and elevate stats over first-hand reports every time. Neither has a monopoly on truth. Sometimes the old-school fan is right, other times it is the sabermetrics guy/gal.  I'd expect the sabermetrician to be right somewhat more often only because he is more willing to seek truth wherever it exists and not worry if it doesn't correspond to his preconceived notions, but my biases aren't important here.  And of course very few fans are at either pole - most, particularly here, are somewhere in the middle.

Even more important than being right or wrong about a specific argument, there’s no right or wrong way to enjoy the game. Baseball is great because it allows for people to experience it in completely different ways. If we haven’t done the best job of making sure that the sabermetrically inclined don’t belittle others, that’s on us. But we’re not going to condone them being told to shut up or not to argue their points either. If baseball is big enough for old school fans and sabermetricians, so is B^3.  Or, more succinctly:  Just another crowd. We need a gathering instead.

 

Title from "I am a Scientist" by Guided by Voices

Comment 178 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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I'm all for discussing almost anything

but being told one commentator can us stats and another one can’t, that doesn’t work for me.

by Tom Dakers on Jun 6, 2011 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

anyway to pin it

to the top, afraid its going to get lost in all of the draft talk, and it really needs to be read by everyone

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 8:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Nice work slipping in the Op Ivy lyric.

I hope I didn’t offend anyone. I do enjoy it here and there is alot more traffic than past years so there will be dissenting opinions.

...and make sure you vote for Jose

by craig in calgary on Jun 6, 2011 9:50 PM EDT reply actions  

I also must say

Taken out of context, this comment was quite dickish.

The original poster commented that Tim Collins was having a good year. 2nd commenter went off on him quoting a variety of Sabermetrical (Sabermetriccy? Sabermetrish?) stats, questioning how people couldn’t possibly know this. This is what my comment was replying to.

...and make sure you vote for Jose

by craig in calgary on Jun 6, 2011 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am neither for one side or against another...

I will say this… Information has made life boring. At a cocktail party someone makes a statement we start to have a spirited discussion then someone pulls out the IPhone… googles the topic and that was the end of the debate/conversation.

Sports chat used to be about delivering your argument and theories with passion and conviction… now the eye test doesn’t mean much and you can’t really argue with Stats once they are accepted because well… they are accepted stats… makes life more accurate but a hell of a lot more boring… Wow NIX is TERRIBLE at Third…

If you are a DJ who plays House music... let me know and I will get you on our Promo list
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www.micasarecords.com
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by Humble Dragons on Jun 6, 2011 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

I strongly disagree

Greater access to information has made life so much more interesting. There was a time when Encyclopedia Britannica was the biggest compendium of knowledge around. If you wanted to learn Quantum Physics or about the Roman Republic you were pretty much SOL unless you had the time and money to enroll in a university class. If you lived in the sticks you were SOL if you wanted to catch up on the latest cutting edge music or film. Now you can download lectures from the greatest minds in the world and watch them on the subway on the way to work, and with an internet connection folks in Fargo have access to the same art, literature, and music as folks in New York or London.

The internet has no more made life boring than did moveable type and the printing press.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 6, 2011 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

What I meant was

The most fun discussions/arguments I have ever had were devoid of fact. I am much more informed than my parents were… but they had a hell of alot more fun waxing poetic and telling impossible stories.

Sometimes I feel like information is driving us apart. I don’t have to go to the Library anymore… on line communities are fun and informative but it feels like something is missing. I used to work remotely (from home) 5 days a week. I spoke to people all over the world every day. I would call some of them my friends… but nothing felt better than the day I had to go back to the office and was able to relate face to face… I guess what I am saying are numbers are cold… accurate and cold and in my opinion less fun.

That being said I am killing two of my fantasy leagues because i payed attention to Babip and Xfip…. everyone else just thinks I am magical.

If you are a DJ who plays House music... let me know and I will get you on our Promo list
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by Humble Dragons on Jun 6, 2011 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

But "Ignorance is Bliss", no? ;-p

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Jun 7, 2011 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

I wonder...

if the opinions on this matter would split into two sets where we’d have people who have an inclination towards (science and numbers) leaning towards wanting to include statistics in the discussion and those who have an inclination towards (arts [and passion]) leaning towards wanting to not include statistics in the discussion.

I’m with you — I think that stats can add to the discussion (but maybe that’s because I’m more inclined towards numbers/data). However, I do understand that sometimes, statistics can be misconstrued even misused (hey, did you know that ice cream sales increase with the incidence of athlete’s foot?), so it’s important (maybe just as important?) to use the eye-test to verify the observed effect (in the data).

"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman

by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 7, 2011 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

From what I've seen, at least

We’re collectively very good at avoiding the “correlation implying causation” issue round here when citing stats (traditional or advanced).

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree...

in that (I don’t remember someone mistaking correlation for causation in their usage of statistics). I was merely pointing out that statistics can be misused (and/or misunderstood).

That was all. :-)

"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman

by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 7, 2011 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

i disagree as well

mostly for the same reasons as hugo. What I wanted to add was that one of the most spirited arguments I’ve had on the internet came on FanGraphs.

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 6, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not quite. Yes there are more advanced stats, but you still need to determine which ones you believe to be more valuable, or which stats your team thinks are more valuable. One team might be willing to take a player that produces more runs than the average player (with average defence), and another team might want to take a better than average defender with only average offence.

Advanced stats have change the debate, but they certainly haven’t shut it down. They are still trying to tweak stats to become better, and finding ways to better value player production.

Follow me on twitter @CoolJ90

by CoolJ90 on Jun 7, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

very good point

for the record, I don’t think replacement level is set correctly for a few positions (one of which is DH) (based on absolutely no objective evidence)

by benk on Jun 7, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't mean to take it out of context

and I definitely didn’t single it out because I thought it was a dumb or offensive post. I wouldn’t pull out a post I thought was crap and stick it on the front page. I just thought it was a good jumping off point for something I’ve seen pop up on the site often.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 6, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

i don’t mind when people throw out stats – they are what they are, but i don’t really pay much attention to them. if the game was played on paper, well, i’d pay more attention.

by HabsFanInCalgary! on Jun 6, 2011 9:53 PM EDT reply actions  

Well Put

Stats are just that. Stats. There are so many variables that can effect a stat that are not and really cannot be taken into account when coming up with any given stat. So while stats are useful, they should not be treated as gospel.

by TDOTFAN on Jun 7, 2011 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

This conversation about the presence of advance stats in BBB greatly interests me. I don’t think many of you know but I use to be a frequent contributor back in the day when BBB was still a baby. I was specifically told to avoid being overly technical so BBB can be more accessible to a greater percentage of fans. That was back in 2006. I feel like the knowledge of an average baseball fan has grown exponentially since then, and terms like FIP which was cutting edge back then is now part of the standard vernacular of baseball fans.

I do believe stats have a place in any baseball blog in 2011, that’s where baseball discussion is trending. Do you want the mlb.com draft coverage level of intelligence in the discussions on this site? It is painful enough as it is listening to John Hart and Harold Reynolds talk about how some guy is a ‘baseball player’ or ‘really LOVES baseball’. I hope to find more interesting discussion on sites like BBB.

I think the main issue here is just don’t be a know it all asshole with your opinions. You don’t have to rub it in someone’s face everytime you are right.

by slitheringslider on Jun 7, 2011 2:42 AM EDT reply actions  

If anybody is interested...

…Fangraphs has had some great posts lately on using saber stats in ways that are friendly to a mainstream audience. Even if you don’t adopt all of the ideas, little tricks like using a percentage instead of a number that has no frame of reference for a mainstream fan just seems to make good sense.

Being one of the worst sabermetric offenders, that’s probably all I have that’s productive to add to this discussion :/

by Sivvi on Jun 7, 2011 6:03 AM EDT reply actions  

I read those

I found them pretty douchey, TBH… an air of superiority (which I am sure I exude at least sometimes, but am trying to avoid)

by benk on Jun 7, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Really?

I actually found them a bit helpful.

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 10:16 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Good post, that man!

Just one thing:

I’d expect the sabermetrician to be right somewhat more often only because he is more willing to seek truth wherever it exists and not worry if it doesn’t correspond to his preconceived notions,

Historically, science proves himself over and over again to be very much affected by preconceived notions. There are whole brances of science (Cranyometry, for example) that are bsed purely on a preconceived notions. Some of the most meticoulous empiricists, true scientists, by and large, couldn’t escape their era’s preconceived notions.

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Jun 7, 2011 9:17 AM EDT reply actions  

But in statistics

We have the power of 1) years upon years of data, and 2) regression analysis.
We don’t need to make guesses about untestable theories, since any statistic can tell us precisely how accurate it is capable of being (in the long run). It’s not really fair to draw a link between statistics and pseudoscience – preconceived notions play far less of a role here since they are all empirically testable.

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was talking about stats-based science.

Surprisingly, I can tell the difference.

The example I provided – Craniometry – is all about stats (years of them). You want another one? take the utilization of IQ test over the years.

Look here

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Jun 8, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

well, sure

but there’s a huge difference between being somewhat constrained by one’s preconceived notions, which is unavoidable, and being hostile to the very idea that they could be challenged, which is avoidable and far more problematic.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 7, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

You’re right there’s a difference. But, as I replied to Gerse, the fact that something is based on stats definitely doesn’t mean that it’s immune to preconcieved notions.
People who know statistics well (and I don’t pretend to be one of them), know that stats can be either manipulated, or even unconciously interpreted, to fit preconceived notions.

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Jun 8, 2011 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bridging the Gap - An idea

We have some able writers here – Woodman is doing a great job with the draft and MiLB, for example.

I’m looking for a volunteer to do the occasional “Idiot’s guide on an advanced stat of his choice. Something along the lines of ”xFIP – it is not about Flowers In Pot"… (some humor won’t hurt, y’know… wets the pipe and makes dry stats easier to get down…)

Me, I’m an admitted ignorant. I understand BABIB, but I won’t know an OPS+ if I pass one at the street…

Any volunteers? benk?

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Jun 7, 2011 9:32 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I would love to

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 9:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

You, sir, are a brave volunteer.

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Jun 7, 2011 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Want to set up a list or something?

FiP, xfip, lob%, babip, uzr, ADR?, pitch values?, batted ball profile, plate discipline, fwar Rwar, woba, etc etc

There’s a lot we can do

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 10:11 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Might I suggest you start with a few of the major ones that get used a lot

Say WAR, FIP and xFIP for pitching, BABIP which covers both batting and pitching, plate discipline, and UZR for fielding.

They are some of the most common ones, and together cover most aspects of the game.

by IanJ on Jun 7, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

All right

Do you want fip and xfip benk? Or batted ball profiles (babip included)?

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 10:34 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

If you do fanposts, make sure you use a consistent tagging system so they can be searched out on the site.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jun 7, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

right

how do you do that again?

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

sorry, was studying

how about I do FIP/xFIP (probably one post) and BABIP? and you can cover WAR+UZR (or whatever defensive metric you want, but that’s probably one post) + plate discipline?

by benk on Jun 7, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Okay

But you are going to cover some batted ball profiles right? I feel that is essential to explaining babip

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

LD/FB/GB/IFFB?

and the relative goodness of each? or were you thinking more detail than that

by benk on Jun 7, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

i think thats good enough, right?

HR/FB too i guess. Pull/away? maybe? if you want. Not sure where to get those stats, other than hittracker or someplace.

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

There is a spot on the article creation page where you can tag things, you can tag something with whatever you want. Just be consistent.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jun 7, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I for one am inclined to side more with Craig on this matter.

I would like people to be able to celebrate in game threads without being shot down with stats (advanced or not). Sometimes I don’t want to know about whether a Jay got lucky or not, I just want to celebrate a 4/4 or a 10k performance.

Just my two cents

by IanJ on Jun 7, 2011 10:06 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

But I didn't mention anything about advancing an agenda Sivvi just assumes I have an agenda I want to advance

And I have seen Person A say " thank god EE finally got a hit" and Person B " he got lucky".

Maybe it isn’t even about stats at all, maybe be I just want to enjoy an uninhibited celebration of a good moment without the negativity that some people tend to bring.

by IanJ on Jun 7, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

it sounds nice and all when you say it that way

but just as often it is the other way around. People are ragging on someone they don’t like and then get frustrated with someone else who uses using stats to argue that they really aren’t planing badly and/or are just getting unlucky. You can’t just look at the issue as sabermetrically-inclined folks raining on other people’s parades. It fits the tired old narrative that stats are taking the fun out of the game for people, but it’s not accurate.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 7, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Stats made baseball as fun as doing your taxes!

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jun 7, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

haha Simpsons ftw.

I actually really enjoy doing my taxes – surely that says something about me

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 7, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I suspect...

Most numbers-oriented folks (don’t mind) doing their taxes (as much) as the rest of the population.

"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman

by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 7, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

How about number-oriented people who dislike the fact that the government has its hands in their pocket? Where are those on the enjoyment scale?

;-p

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Jun 8, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ok, that's a completely different situation

What you’re describing there has nothing to do with stats either way, totally different from what you were talking about originally :P

by Sivvi on Jun 7, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

it is raining on the parade

even if you don’t see it that way, its clearly how its portrayed. i know i have seen/felt it a few times where it upsets someone, or kills the mood.

Even if the intent is not there, there is no reason really to throw the stats out in a situation like that

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

the point is that we're not raining on the parade

we don’t mind when people say “i’m happy X went 4/4 or Y struck out 8!”

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

nobody said

you did mind, but explaining that they are still bad, or getting lucky, is not something you want to be thrown infront of you with stats.

Sometimes you just wanna get caught up in what happened and not worry about how it looks on paper. and then when you see it, its just not the same

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

see the stats i meant

No way meant that someone only looked at stats, and didn’t see the performance

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

You're missing his point

He’s not saying don’t celebrate, he’s saying don’t advance a narrative based on a player’s performance in one game

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

took the words right out of my mouth.

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

I am Not

If someone wants to believe they are turning it around because they had a really good outing. Let them.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

The problem

is that the same person will turn around and moan about how much that same player sucks the next game and how Farrell is nuts to keep playing him and so on.

Also, using one piece of data to draw conclusions is just irresponsible, it doesn’t hold up to scientific rigor. If you want to draw a conclusion based on a statistic (yes, “4-4” or “12Ks” are stats), then you should be open to responses – also based on statistics – as to why that conclusion may be incorrect. You may disagree with the response, but by basing an opinion on one game, you cannot claim that you’re using statistics more correctly than they are.
(Note that “you” above doesn’t mean you, just the general, all-consuming “you”)

 
Suppose I own a globe, but I didn’t look at it today: if I decide go around announcing to people that the Earth is flat because today I only looked at the world around me and I could not see the curvature of the planet, I would very much expect people to refute that view based on other known information. All the same, If I see a player go 4-4 after hitting .210 through 50 games of the season, and then proclaim to the masses that said player has turned a corner, I would rightly expect a negative response since I’m effectively forming an opinion by throwing out all prior knowledge I have of the situation.

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh i understand

if they come back and moan about it instead of saying “guess not”.

But the point is if they want to go out on a limb and Guess that the player is turning it around because they Looked good and it showed on the box score then again, Its no skin off your back to let them Hope.

Until the next game if they fall apart, do you know that the player actually didn’t turn it around.

There is a lot of luck in a game, if a player gets on a roll and most of it is lucky, who cares, the point is they are on a roll and performing well. Some people don’t want to know that the hits would have been outs most of the time.

Theres a difference between “4 for 4” stats, and Advanced Stats.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

again

this is presuming that the statements aren’t made in an argument, they are just what someone is thinking.

Let them be Optimistic, Let them enjoy what happened, without “proving them wrong”

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

But both are statistics

Both are being used to make a point, regardless of whether they’re old-timey and traditional and apple pie, of if they’re cold and modern. There’s this backlash that advanced stats are evil and newfangled and so on because numbers ruin the game, while the traditional way is good. The obvious flaw in this logic is that it ignores the fact that the “traditional” way is also entirely based on statistics, just statistics that have been shown to have far less predictive ability in showing a player’s actual talent level.

I have no doubt that if someone were to begin a post (as opposed to responding to someone) with “Even though Edwin went 5-5, he was ridiculously lucky” (which, incidentally, is true of anyone who ever goes 5-5), that the “non-advanced-stats people” would jump down that persons throat all the same for pooping on the parade.

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

How would you know?

Its never been done.Its always used in an argument Which is what im saying, why do some people always have to prove them wrong.

Why do you have to say No actually his BABIP was blah blah, he just got lucky.

If you want to make a generic post using advance stats about a players performance then go ahead, thats not ruining the fun for anyone.

But replying to someones opinion, who is just saying they had five hits to prove a point that they "aren’t actually turning it around’ is Just RUDE

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

If a child comes up to you on the street and says they Believe in Santa Clause. because 4 of their 6 presents were from “him”

Are you going to go to that child and tell them that he would have to hit x amount of houses in x amount of time in order for it to be true?

No ! you just smile and walk away

I know its extreme but i hope the point is clear. There is no reason to just throw advance stats at someone to prove them wrong.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

actually

I told my daughter when she was 3 straight up that Santa was bs.

But that’s a bit of a strange analogy. Do baseball fans really need to be protected from the truth like little children so that they can cling to their magical little myths?

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 7, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

If the fan wants to

Just watch the game and base their opinons on that, why can’t they? They want to be blind to BABIP FXIP blah blah, let them?

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

of course they can

but if they enter an online forum whose purpose is to discuss baseball, they should expect people to like, talk about baseball, and not necessarily in the exact way they would like.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 7, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

They're more than welcome to

But once you express that view to the masses, you’ve opened yourself up for critique.

And yes, it is an awful analogy – it falls apart at the word “child”.
This isn’t a site filled with 6 year-olds, incapable of forming proper decisions about the world due to both a lack of development and the lack of capacity to find out new information, this site is filled with people who are teen-aged and up, living in an enlightened society that places value on the search for knowledge

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Being a jew (hence, never had the chance to drink Santa’s kool-aid), I must say that it is a VERY GOOD analogy.

And yes, it is an awful analogy – it falls apart at the word "child".

Really? For me, you just proved his “raining on the parade” point with that statement. Fans sould be allowed to act like children. What’s so wrong about that?

Personally, I don’t mind some rain on my parades, but don’t hide behind your rationality, when some of the “shoot-down” arguments are just pure annoying righteousness.

(Note that "you" above doesn’t mean you, just the general, all-consuming "you")

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Jun 8, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

There is a big difference. Fans can act like children, But then to be completely honest this isn’t the place for you.

If you are going to act like a child on a public forum that exists to discuss and talk about baseball be prepared to be taken to task on what you are saying.

Of course if you are taken to task in an insulting manner then thats a problem.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jun 8, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

ahahaha

what a good father you are

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Santa's not real

right, papa?

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jun 7, 2011 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

And, as hugo mentions above

Just as often as the supposed parade pooping, we use advanced stats to refute arguments that “omgz [Player X] is the worst evar!! AA is slipping! Farrell is an idiot for continuing to play him
The advanced stats crowd has just as much right to be annoyed with people for being reactionary sensationalists (positively or negatively) as the traditional crowd does with us for pooping on the parade and, I don’t know, taking the magic out of the game, or something. Rants about how much a player sucks based solely on emotion or batting average and the like are to the sabermetric crowd as calling a good game “lucky” is to the traditional crowd — Both are attempting to express an opinion, and, by the logic of not parade-pooping, neither should be allowed. Obviously this is untenable and undesirable, so the compromise is that both sides can express opinions and form rebuttals to the other side – that’s how intelligent discussion and human progress works.

The short version of the entire discussion is this: Human inertia is the most powerful force in the universe.

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Im not saying it doesn't go both ways

But its always advance stats in reply to someone else’s post. IF someone is not using them for an argument in a train of stat posts, then they are playing with fire, and they will get burned.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

People are allowed to disagree

Disagreeing with someone isn’t rude. Based on this discussion, you inherently disagree with me. I don’t take it as being rude – it’s the expression of different opinions, and is a necessary and desired aspect of civilization.

I mean, what you’ve basically said at this point is its okay to make sweeping statements, but it’s not okay to respond to them with information that the original poster doesn’t like, even if some of the people who read it take the original post as pooping on their parade (for example, I take offence with people broadly proclaiming someone sucks/is the best ever based on one game, because it’s a lazy analysis and is below the level of discussion that I’ve come to expect around here).

Different people with differing views read this site, and there are only two options 1) we have back-and-forths, with people disagreeing with the opinions of others, or 2) no one says anything for fear of stepping on anyone’s toes.

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is where the shoving stats down someone

comes into the play.. You can make an argument without those advance stats, and if someone else starts to use stats, then obviously the other stats can come into play.

The point is, its not much fun when someone throws stats at you just to prove you are wrong.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

If the statistics prove you wrong all the time...

…maybe it’s just being conclusively proved wrong that’s actually bothering you?

Venturing opinions frequently without evidence or proof and getting shot down by scientific facts I will admit, sounds like it wouldn’t be fun at all.

by Sivvi on Jun 7, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

<3

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

and really

i think you should stop calling people who dont use advance stats, irresponsible and lazy

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Unfortunately, me too

so rec’d

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Jun 8, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't say that

I said its irresponsible to base an opinion (and express that opinion to the masses) on only one data point, advanced or not

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

why do you always attack?

I am just speaking in General, people do seem to have less fun on here then previous years becasue everytime they talk they get stats thrown down on them

There is no need to get offensive.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

probably because "potayto potato"

literally entirely ignored the point that I had made immediately before, which was actually showing that you were misattributing an opinion to me.

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Its not a an analysis

it is just an opinion from someone who may not care for advance stats. that does not make them lazy if they choose not to use them

This is getting really frustrating, there is a difference between just saying what you feel, from what you saw in a game

And then turning everything into “an analysis”

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

backed by stats

Some people just say what is on their mind.

And then when they get attacked with stats, and its usally done in an attacking matter

Thats not Fun.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I know I know

Technially it is an “analysis” but for the sake of argument lets not get into that

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not saying use advanced stats

when I say use espn/bref/fangraphs, im saying use SOMETHING, look at something, batting average, homeruns, something other than just the day’s events

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

See

WHY?

People enjoy the game how they want, let them.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

And they're welcome to

But once you express an opinion in a public forum (regardless of topic, side of the argument), you have automatically invited discussion.
I’m not saying don’t say anything, I’m saying don’t complain about someone disagreeing with what you say – the internet is a big place, people disagree.

Telling me not to disagree with someone else is or that you shouldn’t be expected to back up your points is as offensive to my views about the quest for knowledge as my disagreeing with someone here is to your views on baseball

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

you can have a discussion

without throwing stats at someone who doesn’t use them

if you think they are wrong, just snicker out loud, you don’t need to prove it to someone who is not interested in having an argument with advance stats.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

and they

don’t need to respond to your advanced stats post and still say “he sucks”

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're not getting it

My point for the majority of this discussion boils down to this: When one publicly expresses an opinion (any opinion), it is unfair to not expect or allow people to disagree with that view and respond as such. It doesn’t matter if the original poster disagrees with the views and methods of the respondent, said respondent still has a right to express his view.

I’m not saying everyone has to use advanced statistics – frankly, I don’t care – I’m saying that you can’t tell someone not to disagree with someone else. That’s it. It doesn’t even have to do with baseball, just in general: people disagree, such is life. The only way to avoid being disagreed with is to not express an opinion (which, to reiterate, is not desirable).

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am saying

Everyone deserves to have fun and enjoy their experience on BBB.

And all the advance stats attacks have not made it enjoyable for a lot of people lately.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

And the expression of opinions without backing them up hurts the enjoyment for other people – theres a compromise here. We all just accept that the other people have other views. Thats it.
It’s not just one side that perceives harm, its equal on both sides.

This window is too narrow to continue, so I’m prepared to just leave this at hugo’s post below and be done

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes!

Some people are wrong sometimes. Occasionally others can be pedantic. There’s no need to be a d-bag about it.

by neilrqm on Jun 7, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wheaton's Law

really does say it all, no?

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 7, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I happily embrace my being pedantic

thankyouverymuch :)

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

I happily embrace...

other people being wrong.

8=/=D

Kumbaya!

by neilrqm on Jun 7, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gerse is totally right

If I said God must exist because he creates our souls, and I expect nobody to argue with any facts that don’t involve God or souls, I’m basically asking for the world to confirm my views.

To properly refute that arguement, someone might need to introduce other information (advanced information, some might say) like evolution, or the big bang theory. Yes, this new information is much less magical and probably not as much fun, but asking people to let you preach an opinion and then not respond using the knowledge available to them is just dumbing down the world.

by Sivvi on Jun 7, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

its all been taken to the extreme

Its more of how its done, not getting rid of it totally, its 90% (made up) attack stats, that are done, not to educate, but to put down someone.

I would love for their to be a balance, i know it came off as saying “well dont talk at all then” didn’t really want to go there, nor do i believe its a good solution ( it would work, but its horrible)

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Correct me if I'm wrong

but are you not just saying that you take people using stats to refute arguments as personal attacks? I find this odd since one of the favourite complaints of people against advanced stats is that they’re “cold and impersonal”.
Disagreeing with someone is inherently an attack on their views, but that doesn’t mean the disagree-er feels negatively/positively/ambivalently/indifferent about the original poster.
We use stats to attempt to find projectability and order in a mass of information, not because we have any particular feeling or opinion about the existence of the person on the other side. That would be petty and a waste of time.

Last point: stats-users have no obligation “to educate” when they make a point, same as the traditionalists don’t. If we did try to “educate”, then we’d be told we’re preachy, condescending, and are not letting people

have fun and enjoy their experience on BBB [or] enjoy the game how they want.
Also, there are countless resources that break down every single stat into every level of detail you could want, from broad overview down to the precise calculations. In short, it isn’t our job to educate people who don’t have interest in a subject.

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

no i mean the way they are said comes off as an attack, in more then one case. Not stats themselves are an attack.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Strawman

It’s more like if you were sitting on the train talking on your phone and said “Yay God!” and some clown across the aisle said “ACTUALLY God doesn’t exist” and gave you a big spiel about advanced God stats or whatever.

by neilrqm on Jun 7, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

No

That is intended to be a private conversation between two people that you just happen to overhear. That’s not at all the same as posting an opinion in a public forum with a known, active readership.

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Seriously

Can we all agree to accept that posting an opinion online necessarily invites discussion?

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I was in a rush and didn't think that through.

My point was that you would be correct to respond with rational arguments in your analogy, but that’s a strawman, nobody’s arguing otherwise. Your hypothetical ignorant is arguing his belief and using a stupid argument to back it up. My hypothetical ignorant isn’t trying to convince anybody of anything, he’s just expressing his joy.

And no, I don’t agree that the mere fact that he’s expressing it in public is an implicit invitation to criticism. Everyone else is saying “yay,” maybe he’s just saying something to be part of the crowd. Maybe he’s addressing the subgroup of posters who won’t bite his head off in response. Or maybe he really is implicitly inviting discussion, who knows?

I want to emphasize I’m not trying to legislate anything, I think it’s great that people want to put effort into correcting ignorance and I applaud it, and it’s not my place to tell people not to do it. Normally I’d ignore the issue but since it’s specifically the topic of this discussion, my 2 cents are:

It is neither necessary nor possible to correct all ignorance, and one should be judicious in doing so. If somebody doesn’t seem like they’re going to appreciate being corrected, then correcting them will not be conducive to the larger discourse. It’s better just to grit our teeth and let it go, because there’s nothing we can do to improve the situation.

by neilrqm on Jun 7, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

While we’ll remain in disagreement about the nature of posting opinions in an area designed for discussion (ie a “comments” section), your post is fair and eloquent, so a +1 to you

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

i don't understand

is making false statements based on false stats part of enjoying the game? is it more enjoyable to say “Corey Patterson is hitting better because he sees more hittable pitches from batting in front of Bautista”? I don’t get it.
 
No one is saying don’t enjoy it when EE or Nix or Patterson gets a hit.

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

all right

we understand. I do think it is a bit of a problem these days. a lot of stats vs non-stats talk here. I think its possible to tone down the fighting/attacking view of stats.

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

=)

which was the point of all this, craig’s comment, hugos post

So that everyone can enjoy BBB.

I apologize for not being 100% clear, and going to the extreme. I am at work and not really reviewing everything i say because i can’t leave this open all the time =D

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

and with that, my arguments' done

too many replies. can’t tell whats happening. whatever.

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

For what it's worth...

I totally understand and agree with everything you’re saying in this thread.

by neilrqm on Jun 7, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Again

ADVANCED OR NOT. Making sweeping statements despite not looking for additional information – WHETHER IT IS “ADVANCED” OR NOT – is inherently lazy. You’re on a computer, you have access to any of ESPN, Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, etc. – literally every statistic collected about every baseball player ever, yet you choose to express an opinion based solely on the information from one game. That is a lazy analysis.

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe people don't want too?
See, the great thing about baseball is everyone can enjoy it in their own way. The most fun I’ve had watching baseball was when I knew absolutely nothing about advanced stats. At the same time, my scientist’s brain always needs to understand as much about everything as possible and has driven me to better understand the nuances of the game I have always loved.

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

no one is saying you have to

but it is accessible and available. Its not some thats hidden away in a secret chamber of the internet. ITS THERE.

You don’t have to use advanced statistics, but if you choose to make an argument based on eyes/traditional stats, which have been proven to be less accurate, or just completely inaccurate, then understand that it will be argued against by some.

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is totally fair

But we need to recognize when a scientific argument is being attempted. In that case it’s totally appropriate to correct mistakes.

If somebody’s just making a celebratory comment, maybe they didn’t take the time to verify their assumptions, or maybe they’re giving predictive value to noisy events, but who cares? I don’t think a correction is warranted in that case. It’s just some guy expressing happiness, it doesn’t have to be scientifically rigorous.

by neilrqm on Jun 7, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

but, really, it isn't that hard

its available everywhere, its simple, and most of all, its more correct than traditional stats. Of course its not perfect, but its better than what we’ve had until now.

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just a point of view from someone who doesn't get too watch much baseball or have the time to stat up...

Statistics are available to everyone – they are on the net – absolutely true. However, I probably get to watch one game per fortnight on MLB.tv (and so roughly pay £6 sterling per game for the priveledge). I’m a full time secondary school teacher, in a management position, with a pregnant wife (have to wait on hand on foot! I think she may be taking advantage a tad, but who cares!). So…when I get to sit down and watch my baseball game and jump onto the game thread, I just want to watch the game. I don’t have the time to look up the stats – although I do like stats (btw please do those posts on the different stats) – I’m British, have come to love baseball but have no “upbringing” in the game. So please, I like basic stats, but I don’t like to be told that because there are advanced stats available I should use them or understand them! I just about have time in life to watch a couple of games a month and find out about the results of the rest the next day…so I guess I fall into the camp of the unintentionally ignorant who may occasionaly go “woooooo…..Nix HR, way to go, we love you!”….whereas the stats would suggest I should say “about time you did something mate”

: ) Good discussion

by GBJay on Jun 7, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's certainly fair

and I think everyone here – advanced or not – does not want people to be alienated, and the point of “we’re not trying to be parade-poopers” has been iterated before. celebrating good things (Jayson Nix has 3 home runs) and moaning about bad things (Frank Francisco has been terrible) is something both camps can do. I think the problem occurs when one of two things happens:

a) non-saber inclined person says, say, Carlos Villanueva is the best pitcher ever – look at his ERA, he should be the #1 starter. SaberMan comes along and says “no he shouldn’t, he doesn’t strike out enough guys/walks too many, he won’t keep this up” and then often (too often) we get into this argument – how do you know, you’re not watching the game, etc. (this is all a made up scenario, btw.)

b) saber-inclined person says, eg, Patterson is not good and should not be starting in LF (again, made up scenario). then there’s the argument of “but he’s been good so far (he has) and maybe he’ll keep it up!” and then that devolves again from there.

I completely forget what I’m trying to say. but basically, I get annoyed (shouldn’t really speak for the saber-crowd) when people either put down good players (my dad hates Jon Rauch and thinks he’s the worst pitcher on the Jays) based on a refutable argument (or none at all), or when people make judgments about a bad player based on the same thing.

this rant made no sense but hell if I’m going to let it go to waste so I’m gonna post it anyway

by benk on Jun 7, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

You definitely should not be forced to go and look up and understand advanced stats.

I still dont know what half the advance stats mean or how they are calculated… and you know what? I dont care to know and I dont think I ever will.

But to go along with that I am going to say something like so and so is the best pitcher on the Jays I will preface that with, I believe XX is the best or while I have no stats to back this up but I feel XX is the best.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jun 7, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

+1

If prefaced correctly, there isn’t an invitation to be rebutted with advanced statistics. :-)

"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman

by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 7, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

And that point I dont really care. If I say you know what? I think Dotel is the best reliever the Jays have or while I dont have any stats I think Dotel is the best reliever.

Even if someone shows up and says well because of some random made up number it shows it isn’t, I just shrug and say meh thats how I feel, even if the stats don’t back it up.

Now if someone shows up and says. OMG you are a friggin moron, look at his xFIP that clearly shows he is an awful tallet-esque mess. Then I am going to take offense and start making fun that you are blogging from your mothers basement using nerd made up stats and you have never seen the light of day or been on a date etc etc.

Leadership tip of the day – Don’t call people morons and I think you will find that conversations go a lot easier.

Wil Wheton says. Don’t be a dick.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jun 7, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

it's okay to not like things

but don’t be a dick about the things you don’t like

by benk on Jun 7, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Were you just using...

the reply to expound your point?

(pssst: I was agreeing with you.)

~~

And yes. If we eliminate the unnecessary name-calling (and intent behind the name-calling, because let’s face it, when someone talks about advanced statistics in an argument coming from a point of view that person X is a moron for saying Dotel is the best closer EVAHHH, they’re going to sound like they’re putting down person X.)

I’m all for the elimination of in-fighting!

We are all here because we like the Blue Jays, right? lol

"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman

by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 7, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think youre looking for this

http://www.thewho.com/

(Yes, I’m sure you were expecting me to do this one too)

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stop arguing with me!

All im saying is we shouldn’t insult someone because thats when the fighting starts.

Man….. don’t you know anything

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jun 7, 2011 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Am I missing something?

Maybe my wireless router isn’t picking up the sarcasm (if it’s there).

1. I wasn’t arguing with you.
2. “Man…. don’t you know anything?” — uhh… insulting?
3. That is all.
4. Good day.

"Do not ask yourself what the world needs. Ask yourself what makes you come alive, and then go do that. Because what the world needs is people who have come alive." - Howard Thurman

by Jeremiah Stanghini on Jun 7, 2011 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ugh! Man you just never learn!
Insulting me now?
Sheesh!

Your mother was a hamster and your father smelled of elderberries!

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jun 7, 2011 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh, a sarcasm detector

now THERE’S a useful invention

by benk on Jun 7, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nicely done – favorite comedy movie ever.

by masterkembo on Jun 8, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

hey I already referenced

Wheaton’s Law on this thread!

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 7, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sure ya did Stats nerd.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jun 7, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

look

the only time i ever said a player was bad or not as good as he looks, for example corey patterson (not that i hate him. he’s an okay 4th OF), is when people keep saying that he’s a good hitter and he’s clutch, when he isn’t.
 
I don’t mind when people celebrate a good game or a good performance, but just don’t generalize it into a false statement.

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

IF someone just made that statement , and it wasn’t to a re buddle, or part of an argument, it was just a fresh post.

Why do some people have to throw stats out to prove them wrong? what do they get out of it?

This is more of what i mean, technically you can’t prove they are wrong until the next day, like Lind for example. After his 2 HR game maybe someone thought “hes picking up where he left off”

There would be no reason to say “naw it was just a fat pitch over the middle anyone would have had that”.
“its too early to tell”

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

And the words in quotes would be in Stats talk, not like that =P

by bowling_kid25 on Jun 7, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

seconded

The holy crusader of internal logical consistency

by Gerse on Jun 7, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

you know what i hate

how many times people here misunderstand the tone of someone’s post and just respond accordingly. Someone said so and so is an idiot, it must mean the guy who said it knows nothing, is angry, and now must be controlled so it doesn’t happen again. If it bothers YOU, then ask away as if you don’t know what he/she means. Dont assume you know everything and that person knows nothing. You are reading a text not diving into someone’s conscious and getting the exact idea of what they’re thinking.
Another thing is sample sizes as its such a typical response from some of u whenever someone suggests a move such as trade, lineup change, etc. Please don’t fly off the handle if I say rivera and molina should not bat in such a high position or francisco should not be closing games even if its too small of a sample size to make this decision. U can use sample sizes but you dont have to repeat it many times. It makes watching a game so unpleasant cause I cant say anything critical because its “too” early. Also by critical i mean commenting on someone’s struggles on hitting, pitching or fielding.

what is 48÷2(9+3) ---> 2 or 288?

by Shane99a on Jun 7, 2011 4:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Or you know, Don’t call people idiots…..

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Jun 7, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Dotel is a good example of stats usage

It bothers me when people dump on him. But if they would only check his splits, they would see he dominates righties and gets butchered by lefties. Used properly (and even Farrell has admitted he didn’t early on) he’s a very effective pitcher.

by JayTeam on Jun 7, 2011 4:19 PM EDT reply actions  

y'know

I think a big problem is this. saberstats are chiefly designed (besides WPA and a couple notable exceptions) for superior predictive value. FIP and xFIP are designed to more reliably predict a pitcher’s future performance. by looking at BABIP and batted ball data, we can take a closer look at how we expect a hitter to perform in the future. that said, I think a problem arises when that fact is not noted or communicated clearly.

Frank Francisco has been terrible this year (given what we expected of him). that really cannot be argued. he has not done a good job of preventing runs for the opposing team. HOWEVER, based on saberstats (and non-saberstats, really) it is easy to show that Francisco, should he continue pitching like he has, is unlikely to allow runs at the same rate he has up until now.

did that make sense? because it’s a point I had thought of before and never said anything about it

by benk on Jun 7, 2011 4:24 PM EDT reply actions  

This is a typical stats-based analysis, and it’s fine. But it does make an assumption, namely that Francisco it is the same pitcher, physically, who produced the past stats. If this assumption true? I don’t know, and the only way to get a handle on this is by observation. Obviously, the best people to do this are the manager, etc., but other input (e.g. by us fans) is interesting, even if it is non-stats based.

On a more general note, this is a typical stats/non-stats dichotomy. Even though the “advanced stats” are often presented as “the truth,” their predictions are based on assumptions, and it’s good for all of us to question these assumptions occasionally.

by DavidLondon on Jun 7, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's possible to know if it is the same Francisco

just check his pitch usage, pitch velocity, pitch movement, and plate discipline numbers. It’s not that hard

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interesting. So, leaving aside questions of small sample size, do you happen to know if there are some indications of a physical problem?

Similarly — and not to restart a recent debate — was there any way of seeing that Snider’s approach had changed earlier this year, and that it wasn’t simply a question of small sample size? (I think his Vegas stats show that Snider’s problems are real.)

by DavidLondon on Jun 7, 2011 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

plate discipline stats stabilize relatively quickly.

For hitters, you can see exactly how many pitches they’re swinging at outside of the zone (or how many they’re not swinging at inside the zone!) which tells a lot about disciple. You can also see how many pitches they’re swinging at both in or out of the zone and making contact with (if Vlad suddenly stops making contact with all the pitches he chases, that would indicate a serious problem for him) or that they’re missing completely (could indicate a mechanical problem, or injury reducing bat speed if this goes up).

For pitchers, you can tell what their average speed for each individual pitch is, and there’s a lot of data for that (over 100 pitches per game sometimes). If you look specifically at their fastballs, which usually have the largest sample size, and you notice a 2+ mph drop and there aren’t other obvious reasons (weather, short rest) then you can be sure there’s a mechanical problem or an injury, because pitchers throw thousands of pitches until their speed is pretty darn consistant. What could take more games to get enough data to matter are things like how many of a pitchers pitches are being whiffed at, how many are being taken for balls, and other such things.

For both batters and pitchers, all their stats tend to stabalize well over a career, so any deviation would raise a red flag, especially in a veteran.

by Sivvi on Jun 7, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Stats reviews

Above (somewhere), some posters volunteered to review various advanced stats. I would request them to not only tell us how the stats are made, but also why they are useful. In particular, these advanced stats are generally made to exclude data which is not based on individual abilities. One obvious example is “clutchness.” There is no question that clutch hits exist. But there is also no question that there is no ability to hit in the clutch. Years ago, I asked about this, and was told that there was only one player whose clutch hitting was significantly better than his overall hitting — Paul Molitor. So he’s the only outlier (and this is also expected, statistically).

I understand that BABIP is not among a pitcher’s abilities to control. I also get the impression that hitters can control this to some extent (e.g. by their LD%). I would ask the reviewer is to include discussions of this in their reviews.

by DavidLondon on Jun 7, 2011 4:56 PM EDT reply actions  

was planning to do so, thanks

but this is good. if anyone else has requests/questions about certain stats, fire away and we’ll cover them in our posts.

by benk on Jun 7, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you're doing FIP/xFIP

There is already a perfect write-up on fangraphs, complete with calculation (if I remember). Maybe the best thing would be to try to add to and/or simplify what they’ve got, to add some value to the production chain of this information. Otherwise, it’s hard to improve on what they’ve got on a blow-by-blow basis.

by Sivvi on Jun 7, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

pretty much

was going to be rather simplistic, an intro – what it is, what it’s used for, why it works, how to use it. then probably links to more advanced stuff (formulae, studies, etc)

by benk on Jun 7, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

how about Ichiro?

He has a .436 OBP over his career with RISP over 1500 plate appearances (essentially two full seasons of data). With RISP and two outs, it is a whopping .479 over 750 plate appearances.

Now he is just a great hitter overall (.374 lifetime OBP), but if there’s anyone who seems able to hit to the situation, he seems to fit the bill.

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 7, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Could be. When I asked about this (late 1990s - I’m older than most posters here :), Ichiro wasn’t really in the picture.

by DavidLondon on Jun 7, 2011 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

isn't Ichiro's OBP somewhat inflated with runners in scoring position

already due to intentional walks? He’s been intentionally walked 160 times over his career.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jun 7, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh, great point

I didn’t even think to look at that

"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman

by hugo on Jun 7, 2011 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

BOOM

Yosted

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

well played sir

Choose me, Ash!

by Pikachu on Jun 7, 2011 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

You are a monster.

by neilrqm on Jun 7, 2011 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great point

I highly recommend respect for other people.

by IanJ on Jun 7, 2011 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Late to the post

But I really like this comment alot, but I don’t know if I like your word casual and I’m sure you probably don’t mean it like I interpret it. I understand and have a working knowledge of how most of the advance stats work, I can quote them if I have too, I wouldn’t call myself a sabermetric though either.

  So does that mean I am just a “casual” fan? because watching 100 + Jays games plus highlights and bits and pieces of the one I miss, or road trips I take to see them during the summer, kind of makes me feel a little more invested than a casual fan. Do I know less about baseball than someone who calls themself a sabermetricians? And even though

I think the big thing is respecting peoples opinions though like you said. Even in most cases discussing whether a player is struggling or playing well, using advanced stats won’t give you a definitive answer, it’ll just give you an indication.

by brett w on Jun 8, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

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