Jose Bautista: Great WARior, or Greatest WARrior?

by Minor Leaguer on Jul 14, 2011 10:17 AM EDT

The greatest player in baseball right now, our very own Jose Bautista, has accumulated 6.6 WAR (rWAR, to be specific) as we enter the unofficial second half of the season. We are all aware that has been a fantastic first half of the season for the Jedi, and that he still has 70 games to produce more WAR. This means that Jose Bautista can very possibly become one of the most valuable Blue Jays in franchise history because only 14 other Jays have ever finished an entire season with 6.6 WAR or more, and out of these 14, only 5 were position players.

So, just who are the greatest WARriors in franchise history?

First, the pitchers:

Rk	Player	WAR	Year	Age	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	IP	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR	HBP
1	Roger Clemens	10.3	1997	34	34	9	3	21	7	264.0	68	292	2.05	222	9	12
2	Pat Hentgen	8.4	1996	27	35	10	3	20	10	265.2	94	177	3.22	156	20	5
3	Dave Stieb	7.7	1984	26	35	11	2	16	8	267.0	88	198	2.83	146	19	11
4	Roy Halladay	7.5	2003	26	36	9	2	22	7	266.0	32	204	3.25	145	26	9
5	Roger Clemens	7.5	1998	35	33	5	3	20	6	234.2	88	271	2.65	174	11	7
6	Roy Halladay	6.9	2002	25	34	2	1	19	7	239.1	62	168	2.93	159	10	7
7	Roy Halladay	6.8	2009	32	32	9	4	17	10	239.0	35	208	2.79	159	22	5
8	Dave Stieb	6.8	1982	24	38	19	5	17	14	288.1	75	141	3.25	138	27	5
9	Jimmy Key	6.6	1987	26	36	8	1	17	8	261.0	66	161	2.76	164	24	2

Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=oIeCc

Then, the position players:

Rk	Player	WAR/pos	Year	Age	G	PA	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG
1	John Olerud	8.2	1993	24	158	679	551	109	200	24	107	114	33	65	0	2	.363	.473	.599
2	Jesse Barfield	7.3	1986	26	158	671	589	107	170	40	108	69	5	146	8	8	.289	.368	.559
3	Vernon Wells	6.7	2006	27	154	677	611	91	185	32	106	54	0	90	17	4	.303	.357	.542
4	*Jose Bautista*	*6.6*	*2011*	30	84	*376*	*299*	73	*100*	31	65	74	14	54	5	3	*.334*	*.468*	*.702*
5	Fred McGriff	6.6	1989	25	161	680	551	98	148	36	92	119	12	132	7	4	.269	.399	.525
6	Jesse Barfield	6.6	1985	25	155	612	539	94	156	27	84	66	5	143	22	8	.289	.369	.536

Source: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=4gp6b

George Bell's MVP season in 1987 doesn't even appear on this list, having only accumulated 5.0 WAR during the season. (Alan Trammell, who finished 2nd that year, had a 8.4 WAR)

A simple (and probably completely inaccurate) linear projection over the remaining 70 games based on Bautista's accumulation of 6.6 WAR during 84 games will give him a 12.1 WAR for the season. The 12.1 mark has only been achieved or surpassed 13 times in MLB history: Babe Ruth (4x), Barry Bonds (3x), Mickey Mantle (2x), Rogers Hornsby, Carl Yastrzemski, Walter Johnson (pitcher), and Steve Carlton (pitcher)--the record holder being Ruth with a 14.7 WAR in 1923.

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Comments

Blue Jay Hunter on Jose Bautista's 6.6 WAR:

With a first half WAR of 6.6, Jose Bautista himself has more WAR than the entire Twins (6.2 WAR), Athletics (3.2 WAR) and Mariners (2.1 WAR) rosters.

This leads me to believe that a team comprised entirely of Jose Bautistas would win the World Series from now until the machines take over. And even then, they would be hard-pressed to beat the Bautistas.

A great read: http://www.bluejayhunter.com/2011/07/10-facts-about-jose-bautistas.html

@BBBMinorLeaguer

by Minor Leaguer on Jul 14, 2011 10:34 AM EDT reply actions

I bet they probably would

their defense at premium positions would be bad (probably, say, -50 runs total) but that’s including a conservative estimate of +700 runs. +65 WAR from your position players ;)

WAR... WAR never changes.

by benk on Jul 14, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Would the Bautista's be pitching too?

That could lead to some interesting games.

2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal

by Vagabond13 on Jul 14, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions

I was looking at fangraphs WAR the other day

And with 6.6 fWAR so far this year, Jose Bautista has moved into a tie for 26th in career WAR for Jays players (with Duane Ward). And he could easily pass long time Jays including Kelly Gruber, Tom Henke, Shannon Stewart and Alex Rios. He’s currently 16th among hitters in career fWAR. Not bad for 2+ years of full time playing.

by masterkembo on Jul 14, 2011 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

To add to this

When looking at Jays players career WAMVP (wins above MVP, or WAR greater than 6.0 fWAR in a season), Bautista has accumulated 1.5WAMVP which is tied for 7th in franchise history with Carlos Delgado. If he accumulates 2 fWAR over the remainder of the season, he’ll move into 3rd on the Jays list, behind only Roger Clemens and Roy Halladay. Good stuff!

The Jays WAMVP list right now (includes every Jays player with a season greater than 6.0fWAR):

Clemens: 7.9
Halladay: 6.5
Barfield: 3.4
Olerud: 2.4
McGriff: 2.1
Moseby: 1.7
Delgado, Bautista: 1.5
White: 1.3
David Wells: 0.8
Alomar: 0.7
Hentgen: 0.4
Key, Stieb: 0.1

by masterkembo on Jul 14, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

it's funny, as mentioned above

that the only guy to actually win an MVP isn’t on the list

WAR... WAR never changes.

by benk on Jul 14, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Hello!!!

by bowling_kid25 on Jul 15, 2011 7:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Interesting

I thought Robbie’s 1993 year was better than johnny O’s.
Clearly WAR doesn’t agree.

Happiness is a long walk with a putter.

by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2011 2:02 PM EDT reply actions

his defense didn't rate well

it didn’t rate well for much of his career, actually

WAR... WAR never changes.

by benk on Jul 14, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Really?

Rate shmate. Best 2nd baseman I’ve ever seen.

Happiness is a long walk with a putter.

by craig in calgary on Jul 14, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I hate to say it

but that’s what people say about Jeter

WAR... WAR never changes.

by benk on Jul 14, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

though

I’m too young to have really seen him in person

WAR... WAR never changes.

by benk on Jul 14, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

not really

Alomar was considered the best defensive second baseman in the game when he played. As long as Vizquel was playing, Jeter was never even in the discussion. A bit later, guys like Adam Everett, Jack Wilson, and John McDonald took Vizquel’s place.

I think you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone who isn’t a Yankees fan saying Jeter’s the best defensive shortstop of his time, whereas Alomar’s excellence is pretty much a consensus.

Furthermore, look at the discrepancy in Alomar’s TZ and UZR in his last few seasons (the only ones in which UZR existed). It’s quite possible that TotalZone short-changed Alomar for some reason. Also, we’re looking at a difference of about 100 runs between how much worse Alomar is than the average second baseman and how much worse Jeter is than the average shortstop.

Really not comparable.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Jul 15, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

touche

WAR... WAR never changes.

by benk on Jul 15, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

They both had fantastic seasons

But offensively, Olerud was better across the board. Better average, OBA, SLG. Better BB rate. Higher wRC and wOBA.

Olerud had probably, the 2nd best offensive season in the history of the Jays in 1993. Before this year anyway…

by masterkembo on Jul 14, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Olerud played a position with a tougher positional adjustment

their offenses were not even on the same level, good as Alomar was

WAR... WAR never changes.

by benk on Jul 14, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

from FanGraphs

The difference between 1st and 2nd in the Major Leagues in wOBA (Bautista and Gonzalez) is the same as 2nd and 30th. (Asdrubal Cabrera).

The difference in WAR between the two (Jose/A-gon) is the same difference in WAR between Adrian Gonzalez and MELKY CABRERA.

WAR... WAR never changes.

by benk on Jul 14, 2011 6:37 PM EDT reply actions