We Still Haven't Walked in the Glow of Each Other's Majestic Presence: xFIP-based Pitcher WAR Rankings Update
by jessef on Jul 17, 2011 10:40 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintHey all, just a quick update on xFIP-based WAR (as explained, here) for any interested parties. Check them after the jump. A quick methods update, I have included park effects by determining the difference between my estimated FIP-based WAR and fangraphs actual WAR and then adding it to xFIP-based WAR. Roy Halladay is still on top. Jays pitchers (Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Jo-jo Reyes) in black and bold.
Name
IP
FIP
fWAR
xFIP
pkadj xWAR
Roy Halladay
143.1
2.16
5.1
2.45
4.53
Justin Verlander
157
2.7
4.7
2.96
4.17
CC Sabathia
153.2
2.48
5.1
3.1
3.87
James Shields
148.2
3.17
3.2
2.92
3.65
Clayton Kershaw
137.2
2.51
4
2.7
3.64
Cliff Lee
137.1
2.78
3.6
2.76
3.64
Cole Hamels
136.1
2.59
4
2.85
3.51
Felix Hernandez
151.2
2.97
3.6
3.03
3.49
Dan Haren
140.2
2.62
4.2
3.11
3.33
David Price
135
3.11
3
2.95
3.26
Tim Lincecum
129.1
2.7
3.5
2.94
3.07
C.J. Wilson
139
3.14
3.4
3.37
3.01
Jhoulys Chacin
123
4.22
1.5
3.48
2.75
Jered Weaver
147
2.43
4.8
3.54
2.69
Matt Garza
102
2.92
2.7
2.96
2.64
Ryan Dempster
119.1
3.71
2
3.32
2.64
Anibal Sanchez
119.1
3.27
2.4
3.13
2.63
Ian Kennedy
135.1
3.61
2.4
3.54
2.53
Edwin Jackson
115.2
3.17
2.8
3.4
2.48
Ricky Nolasco
133.1
3.17
2.8
3.37
2.43
Tommy Hanson
108.2
3.11
2.3
3.03
2.42
Madison Bumgarner
110.2
2.46
3.4
3.11
2.42
Jaime Garcia
117.1
2.99
2.6
3.13
2.38
Jon Lester
114.1
3.94
1.7
3.46
2.33
Justin Masterson
128.2
2.99
3.2
3.55
2.3
Chris Carpenter
136.2
3.22
2.6
3.41
2.25
Daniel Hudson
125
2.92
3.3
3.55
2.22
Ervin Santana
131.1
3.88
1.8
3.62
2.2
Ricky Romero
127.1
3.87
1.8
3.63
2.16
Ubaldo Jimenez
110.1
3.42
2.4
3.59
2.14
Brandon Morrow
94.2
2.66
2.8
3.25
2.1
Tim Hudson
120.1
3.32
2.2
3.39
2.08
Jon Niese
118.1
3.31
2.1
3.32
2.08
Trevor Cahill
134
3.95
1.6
3.66
2.06
Scott Baker
110.2
3.42
2.1
3.47
2.03
Yovani Gallardo
121.1
3.83
1.4
3.48
1.98
Josh Beckett
111
3.17
2.7
3.71
1.96
Matt Cain
126.1
2.93
3
3.53
1.96
Bud Norris
117.2
3.7
1.5
3.42
1.95
Michael Pineda
113
3.18
2.4
3.51
1.94
Derek Holland
118.2
4.06
1.6
3.86
1.87
Gavin Floyd
119.1
3.89
1.8
3.84
1.87
Alexi Ogando
104.2
3.52
2.1
3.71
1.86
Tim Stauffer
118
3.29
1.8
3.26
1.85
Max Scherzer
119.1
4.16
1.4
3.86
1.83
A.J. Burnett
119.1
4.55
0.9
3.86
1.82
Gio Gonzalez
113
3.58
1.8
3.57
1.81
Derek Lowe
113
3.45
1.8
3.45
1.8
Shaun Marcum
111.2
3.56
1.7
3.52
1.76
Mark Buehrle
121
3.87
2
4.06
1.72
Colby Lewis
121.2
4.7
0.8
4.04
1.7
Hiroki Kuroda
120.2
3.72
1.5
3.6
1.7
Chris Volstad
103.1
4.59
0.4
3.68
1.69
Doug Fister
133
3.16
2.8
3.86
1.67
Carlos Carrasco
108
3.85
1.5
3.74
1.64
Jeff Francis
122.2
3.9
1.8
4.02
1.63
Jordan Zimmermann
115
2.59
3.3
3.65
1.63
Bronson Arroyo
114.2
5.46
-0.5
4.11
1.61
Zach Britton
104.1
3.98
1.5
3.89
1.61
Chris Narveson
108.1
3.5
1.7
3.58
1.58
Josh Tomlin
120.2
4.22
1.1
3.86
1.58
Luke Hochevar
125.2
4.7
0.8
4.2
1.55
Mike Leake
94.2
3.97
1.1
3.64
1.53
Philip Humber
107.1
3.5
2.2
4.03
1.51
Brett Myers
126
4.88
-0.1
3.96
1.49
Chad Billingsley
116.1
3.42
1.9
3.69
1.47
Nick Blackburn
117.1
4.53
0.7
3.98
1.41
Matt Harrison
103.2
4.05
1.4
4.06
1.39
Carl Pavano
130
3.97
1.6
4.12
1.38
Jeff Karstens
107.2
4.49
0.4
3.83
1.37
John Danks
94
4.16
1.2
4.02
1.35
Jeremy Guthrie
123.1
4.35
1.2
4.25
1.35
Wandy Rodriguez
102.1
4.1
0.8
3.71
1.35
R.A. Dickey
121.2
4.13
0.9
3.88
1.32
Chris Capuano
102.2
3.94
1
3.72
1.31
Joe Saunders
118
4.88
0.4
4.32
1.31
Jair Jurrjens
110.2
3.11
2.3
3.77
1.3
Kyle Lohse
122
3.69
1.6
3.88
1.28
Charlie Morton
97
3.46
1.6
3.72
1.25
Jason Marquis
106.2
3.88
1.3
3.92
1.24
Jason Vargas
127.1
3.85
1.6
4.11
1.21
Paul Maholm
126.2
3.74
1.7
4.03
1.2
Carlos Zambrano
116.2
4.06
1.4
4.2
1.18
Fausto Carmona
104.1
4.8
0.3
4
1.17
Brian Duensing
102.1
3.7
1.6
4.09
1.14
Livan Hernandez
125.1
3.72
1.7
4.05
1.13
Rick Porcello
96
4.15
1.1
4.16
1.09
Ted Lilly
107
4.6
0.2
4
1.08
Freddy Garcia
97
3.94
1.4
4.23
1.07
Jake Arrieta
102.1
5.09
0.2
4.38
1.05
John Lannan
114.1
4.11
1
4.09
1.03
Ivan Nova
91.2
4.44
0.8
4.23
1.02
Jake Westbrook
102.2
4.57
0.2
3.99
1.01
Jason Hammel
110.2
4.58
0.9
4.53
0.98
Kevin Correia
116.2
4.12
1
4.14
0.97
Brad Penny
110
4.45
0.9
4.46
0.89
Mat Latos
100.1
3.44
1.3
3.79
0.82
Javier Vazquez
103.1
4.37
0.7
4.29
0.81
Randy Wolf
118.1
4.41
0.6
4.32
0.75
Kyle McClellan
97.2
4.73
0
4.19
0.72
Jo-Jo Reyes
105.2
4.55
0.7
4.57
0.68
Jeremy Hellickson
103.2
4.32
0.8
4.48
0.61
James McDonald
97.2
4.73
0.2
4.51
0.49
Mike Pelfrey
112.2
4.62
0.2
4.44
0.48
Dustin Moseley
107
4
0.6
4.1
0.45
J.A. Happ
100
4.54
0.3
4.47
0.4
Tyler Chatwood
99.1
4.39
0.8
4.82
0.29
Clayton Richard
99.2
4.15
0.4
4.34
0.14
Wade Davis
103.2
4.93
0.1
5.15
-0.18
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might have to reformat
romero’s and JJ’s names are both blue and bolded in the chart, as in just blue
Choose me, Ash!
due to a problem with the sbnation autotagger
fixed now. thanks
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I have to wonder how many of the folks who think Reyes should be cut would feel the same way if it were Hellickson, or Wade Davis…
Hellickson has major potential. No one is even thinking about a trade of that sort.
Davis though? I believe the Ray fans are already clamoring for an open spot so Moore can slide in.
That would be the point to me.
Jo-Jo has little potential. And his FIP has been sliding the last few starts.
yeah, but its unlikely the rays managaement actually brings up moore this early
maybe if they’re in it by August he’ll come up as a reliever, like Price did
Choose me, Ash!
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