Blue Jays Second Base 2012 Situation
by Marcos Montenegro on Jul 28, 2011 12:48 PM EDT
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PrintAs everyone knows, Aaron Hill's current contract ends at the end of the 2011 season. The Blue Jays could pick up the $8 million option per year for the next 2 years, but that is highly unlikely given Hill's 2011 production. The ex All-Star turns 30 next year, and seems like he still hasn't figured out what made him so successful in 2009.
The big question is what does AA think about Aron Hill and his future as a Blue Jay? If he thinks he can't trade for a better 2nd baseman during this winter, the most logical choice for the Blue Jays GM is to re-negotiate a new contract with Hill worth much less than the $8 million per year option.
The other part of the equation is the payroll that Rogers Communications will put forth for the 2012 season. If the Blue Jays intend to genuinely compete in 2012 then the payroll should reflect that. Currently, $38 million has already been committed for the 2012 payroll (Bautista, Romero, Lind, Teahen, Escobar, Davis, Rauch, Encarnacion). If we assume that the Jays will maintain the services of its youth core: Snider, Thames, Rasmus, Arencibia, Cecil, Morrow, Drabek, Lawrie, Litsch, and retain others like Villanueva, Encarnacion and others, we would have about the same payroll as now: approx $60-$65 million. I heard earlier in the season AA mention that at some point Rogers would be "comfortable" with a jump in payroll to as much as $120 million if the situation presented itself for the right players. If that becomes a reality and AA is given free reign this winter, I wouldn't be surprised if AA makes a splash this winter, and perhaps acquires a 2nd baseman of the future. The problem is that this would have to be a trade of some kind given the weak 2nd base market for 2012 and our weak farm system in that position. Here's a list of the potential 2012 second base FAs:
* - player whose current contract includes 2012 option
Second Basemen
Clint Barmes HOU
Willie Bloomquist ARI *
Orlando Cabrera CLE
Robinson Cano NYY *
Jamey Carroll LAD
Luis Castillo NYM
Alex Cora WAS
Craig Counsell MIL
Mark Ellis OAK
Jerry Hairston Jr. WAS
Aaron Hill TOR *
Omar Infante FLA
Joe Inglett HOU
Kelly Johnson ARI
Adam Kennedy SEA
Felipe Lopez TB
Jose Lopez FLA
Aaron Miles LAD
Brandon Phillips CIN *
Of course, we can scratch Cano out.
However, Brandon Phillips has a $12 million option at the end of this year, and for most teams this would be an obvious choice, but I'm not so sure it is for the Reds. Their 2011 payroll is $76.2 million and they're 9th of 16th in attendance at the Great American Ball Park, and with $45.6 million already committed for 2012, $12 million is a lot of money for their market. Also, Billy Hamilton (one of the best 2nd base prospects in the game) might not be too far behind. The contract talks have stalled with Phillips saying he wanted a "fair market value". Yes, he is 30, but he's far better than most at this position, and far better than Hill.
Another option I've read is to go for Reyes this winter, then move Yunel to 2nd base. Having played SS I can tell you that its a lot easier to move to 3rd than to 2nd as the spin on the ball is different on that side of the field. It's definitely something that would take time to adjust. It also would send the wrong message to Hech, so I don't' think this would work.
Your thoughts?
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Phillips and Hill – not a lot of daylight between them. Rather re-neg with Hill (2 mil per year?), than trade for Phil. If Hill can be hidden at 8-spot, can live with him in the lineup.
For me, one more quality starter, and a 3+oWAR DH (ie Pujols or Fielder – dreaming…), are more important acquisitions (assuming Lawrie sticks next year and Drabek puts it together by next spring).
3.5 fWAR difference between Phillips and Hill this year – seems like quite a bit of daylight.
That said, Phillips scares me – seems like a guy that will suffer a big decline over the next couple of years. If they could sign him to a short term 2-3 year deal, then I’d be okay with it, however, that’s probably not going to happen.
he's been very consistent
plus I like the attitude he brings to the clubhouse. He has slowed down a bit in terms of SB, but his defense is solid.
by Marcos Montenegro on Jul 28, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
He's been consistent, through his peak years.
Shockingly consistent actually. But isn’t 27-30 usually the offensive peak for most players? He’s 30, he’s probably starting that decline.
Nothing against the guy – I would love to have 2011 and probably even 2012/2013 Brandon Phillips, but I don’t really want to see the Jays get locked into a 5 yr deal for the guy.
I've read that the "peak period"
(not necessarily peak year or two, but the period where those are most likely) is closer to 28-32 in baseball, where it’s less about peak physical condition (like basketball) and more about technique, approach, intelligence, so Phillips might have a year or two of peak play left – but I still agree that he’s likely not the best signing
WAR... WAR never changes.
Pujols should sign for an AL team to prolong his carreer...but
he will probably stick around the NL playing 1B.
by Marcos Montenegro on Jul 28, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Lets be serious with our trade offers
Drabek has (so far) failed at MLB level (lowers value), while Ackley looks like a stud. Seattle would laugh at AA if that was a serious offer.
you are forgetting the obvious
mariners have the worst offense in baseball and a decent pitching staff. They wouldn’t trade Ackley for Romero
by Matthew Mueller on Jul 28, 2011 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
no, thats stupid
no team would not trade ackley for romero. even the phillies would do it.
COLBY RASMUS
The chances of this...is?
"If you are not sure, ask yourself, "What would Ted do?" Then do the opposite."
- Barney Stinson
I do occasionally go on Youtube...
by Joseph Kirby on Jul 28, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
which was about the same as the trade AA just pulled off?
by upstate jay fan on Jul 28, 2011 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Way too much...
How about Shawn Camp for Ackley?
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Jul 29, 2011 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather keep Hill
The only guy worth acquiring on that list would be K. Johnson and I think he’s a type A. Do you really think AA gives up a draft pick to get him? Phillips’ option will probably be picked up so I think he’s not a reality either. Even if he is available, he’ll be too much money for the value he’ll give over HIll. At least Hill still plays a decent 2B, stick him in the 9 spot and forget about his hitting. Maybe if he’s that low in the order, he’ll stop trying to hit homeruns all the time and go back to being a line-drive hitter.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I agree
Honestly, Hill is a very bad Number 1-7 hitter, but the fact that everybody in the lineup projects to hit better than him, makes him a decent 9 hitter, who plays (IMO) an excellent 2B.
I’d try and keep Hill, re-work his deal to more represent the value he brings to the team (Slightly more than EE Money), and keep him.
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
he's a very bad hitter
no matter where he hits; though he’d be a good 9 hitter in the NL
WAR... WAR never changes.
I hate to be the first one to point this out
But our payroll is nowhere near 60 million right now. We started the season over 70mil, and arb raises and the increase in player contracts (Bautistas goes up 6mil and Romeros goes up 4.25mil alone) wont have us sitting at a lower payroll next season. We also just took on payroll over the last couple days.
Good post, and the salary numbers aren’t very important. You’re just off by 20 mil or so :P
here's the payroll...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2011-roster.shtml
click on “Payroll, Roster & Uniforms”
$67.5 million this year, but it includes:
- $5 million from the Vernon Wells deal
- $5.25 million from J. Rivera
- $750K for the Kevin Gregg buyout
- $500K for the Miguel Olivo buyout
AND the newly acquired:
- $4.75 million for Mike Teahen
- $2 million for Trever Miller
- $750K for Brian Tallet
- $443K for Colby Rasmus
If you look at 2012, there’s $38 million committed.
by Marcos Montenegro on Jul 28, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Let's go through the errors there:
Cot’s says:
Lind is making 5.15, not 5 even.
They completely left out 3mil to Hech
Jose Molina earns 1.2, not 1 even.
Romero is making 1 mil, not 750k
That’s almost 4 million in difference, which would throw your number over 70 million, wouldn’t it? Again, it’s no big deal, but we can’t just forget about players with multimillion dollar contracts.
Also, if we’re going to nitpick, you either have to count buyouts in this season’s salary, or count their salary for next season, you can’t just forget about them completely ;)
I went over likely salary expenditures
Im my fanpost from yesterday. Check it out. In short, Jays will owe about $65M next year including arbitration and reserve clause salaries but before FA signings
by SuckaMD on Jul 28, 2011 8:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ya, I saw your post
By your calcs – which are pretty good – the jays are still over 66mil, and it appears that your numbers for Hech disagree with Cot’s as well. They’re saying he’ll be making a million more than what you’re figuring (maybe Cot’s is wrong, but they’re usually bang on).
Carlos could get a raise of more than 1mil in his final year of arb if he keeps up his performance. I can’t see Carlson not being offered arb as well. I guess if you decline arb for everybody on the bubble you might be able to get the salary a hair under 70 million. 60 million just isn’t in play and never has been though, and it doesn’t change the fact that this year’s salary started over 70 million and never dropped below :)
Sucka, did you ever play a game called Earth? I knew a guy with the same handle who did.
never heard of that game
But I guess great minds think alike.
Not sure where the confusion is, but I went back to check Colt’s and I saw them quote the same $1.75M salaries for Hech in both 2012 and 2013 as I quoted. I think I got that right.
Is Carlson really arbitration eligible next year? Didn’t he debut in 2009? Plus he’s mostly been in the the minors the past 2 years, so not earning service time. I could’ve wrong tho.
You may be right about CV getting more in arbitrary next year than I quotes. J don’t expect my numbers to be exact, but I figure all my mistakes will even out so the overall number will end up close. And the point wasn’t to get the exact figure, but to demonstrate the substantial flexibility and quite reasonable payroll obligations the Jays have and how, if we believe Rogers, it allows the Jays to be major players in the FA market.
by SuckaMD on Jul 29, 2011 7:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm going by
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dHZXVWxSWlVsaWxSRlFmcHAtMUVNZFE&output=html
from Cot’s. It’s entirely possible it’s way off though
And that one says Carlson is over 2 years service time
but you’re right, it looks like he’s going to fall short this season. Had he pitched this year, he’d have made it.
I figured it out
Hech got a $4M signing bonus when he signed. I was only looking on the website (not the spreadsheet), which quotes bonuses and yearly salaries separately. So, Hech’s annual salaries for 2012 and 2013 are $1.75M.
But the spreadsheet includes prorated signing bonuses over the length of the contract, adding $1M to each year of Hech – hence $2.75M per year and the $1M/year difference. I guess we can argue about whether I should have included pro-rate signing bonuses in my salary obligation calculations or not.
Ya, Carlson would be arb eligible if he had played this year, but since he hasn’t, he should still be under the reserve clause. He wouldn’t have cost a ton even if he was arb 1, I’d be surprised if he even gets $1M when he becomes eligible.
If we are going to include Hech lets include every single minor league player in the system.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Hech is on a Major League deal
playing in the Minors, IIRC
WAR... WAR never changes.
by benk on Jul 29, 2011 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Regardless of the type of contract I dont think his number is normally part of the discussion with payroll limitation, While due to contract technical about signing internationals he is considered a major league contract, really he was signed to go to our minor league system and work his way up like any other draftee, we just had to pay more then normal for him.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
isn't another consequence of his being on a MLB contract
that he continues to burn options beginning with him first year in the minors? Guys on MiLB contracts get 4-5 years of team control while in the minors before they have to be added to the 40man roster to avoid Rule 5 eligilibity. With Hech, my impression is that the Jays don’t get that luxury. Next year will be his final option year; after that, we have to keep him on the 25 man or expose him to waivers. Assuming we do keep him beyond the 4 year contract, though, the same rules apply as to any other guy – since he’ll be under 3 years MLB service time after his initial contract runs out, he’ll be subject to the reserve clause and then arbitration when the time comes. Can someone confirm if this is correct?
*begins to burn options
starting with his first year in the minors.
/bad at typing, apparently
second correction
now that I think about it, we should get a 4th option on Hech because he will have less than 5 professional seasons under his belt by the time the 4th year of his current contract comes around. But, the above issue is still the same, just one year later.
Good questions… I have no idea.
Just to clarify my point was basically when people talk about the Jays payroll pushing up to 140M that Hech is not part of that equation, that while he has a major league contract the Jays budget his $‘s into another section of the ol’ balance sheet.
At least that is the impression I get.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
That would be sketchy accounting
I’d imagine that all liabilities for major league contracts would be in the same section of the balance sheet. Accounting rarely makes distinctions based on how you’re using a player.
Eh, Creative accounting maybe. Not Sketchy since Im not saying dont report it anywhere.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
If Hech isn't ready by 4th year...
The Jays won’t be too worried about retaining him on the 25 man roster.
Right now, they have a guy who is playing good defense at SS with an extremely good bat and who is just moving into his prime. Most importantly, Yunel is signed to a team-friendly contract.
Hech is currently looking a lot like the PMoD. He might be worth a spot on the 25 man roster or he might not. If not, it was a $10M gamble that did not pay off.
AA will not brake the bank this off season
AA needs to trade for Weeks (2nd Oakland) and Ubaldo. The only way he opens up the check book for Fielder or Pujols(very unlikely) is if Lind is moved to get an ACE.
Keep Hill
Aaron Hill is nowhere near as bad as he has played – I think anyone who knows anything about baseball and has watched the game long enough can see that – stats don’t always speak for the player. Hill’s swing is really messed up, he has a different batting stance everytime he comes to the plate – personally I think a lot of that relates back to his leg injuries the previous 2 springs, I play ball and have at a fairly high level, and know how much a leg injury changes your entire game. One thing I have noticed with the current hitting coach in TO is once a player gets off track they don’t seem to be able to find their way back. Adam Lind had to find himself during the winter after a terrible year last year by working with his college coach – hopefully if Hill stays he does something similar – otherwise let him go, unless you make a change with your batting coach – which could happen if Snider conitnues to look as lost as he does again after Mottola helped him back in Vegas
I don't honestly care if his swing is messed up
I care that he can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag
WAR... WAR never changes.
I hope Hill can pull it together, but you're right, he doesn't look comfortable out there
His BABIP is ridiculous low too, not sure if that’s a function of bad luck or bad form though.
ordinarily luck
but at this point who knows
Lawrie is not going to play 2B. McGowan is not going to close. Enough.
Regardless of it all, he might be trying to redefine himself as a player.
His calling card was power for the last two seasons (Cito effect?) but with a new manager, he’s trying to play up-tempo and a speedy type of game.
I think at this point in time it’s fare to say he’s a great baserunner. Not a really fast one, but a very good one.
He’s still a very good fielder, just seemed to have lost a step.
The walks need to be worked on, but I’m not sure if he could improve on it.
Overall, if he can get his ‘Act’ togather, we’re looking at a potential 20-20 guy at a premium position. That’s hard to do. Not to mention the history he has with the club.
I don’t know. I don’t want him moved in the off season,
He has had sucess at every level he’s played in and has been excellent. He’s just not a fly ball hitter that he seems to think he is. If he can drive the ball (he seems to be doing it for the past 5-ish games) into gaps, no one cares if he doesn’t hit another homerun.
Thoughts?
he stunk last year too
when he didn’t have a new manager.
he also hit 20 home runs last year (which is half of the 20-20 club) and was horrible
WAR... WAR never changes.
Just a thought...
how about shifting Travis d’arnaud to second base a la Craig Biggio for the 2013 season? I say that assuming Hech’s bat doesn’t develop as expected. I keep hearing about how athletic he is, so physically he should be able to make the switch, and his bat shouldn’t be a problem. Thoughts?
Catcher with plus defence > 2B with plus defence
Lawrie is not going to play 2B. McGowan will not close.
Fin.
Milwaukee thought the same thing about Lawrie
Switching an athletic guy from catcher to 2B doesn’t work that often. It’s usually SS to 2B.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
he's supposed to be a good defender
and he’s only 22, so as long as he stays healthy he can probably stick at catcher for a decade
WAR... WAR never changes.
d’Arnaud has potential to be a top 5 catcher in the league… no way they move him to another position for JPA.
This.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Jul 29, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
JP's backup is another Travis
Travis D’Arnaud
by Marcos Montenegro on Jul 29, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
We don't need Free Agency
Hello… lest we forget that our big time 3rd base prospect (Lawrie) used to be a highly touted 2nd base prospect. With the addition of Rasmus and the two youngsters we already have have (Snider and Thames), who’s to say that when the time comes and their isn’t a viable option at second base that we keep Joey Bats at 3rd Base and put Lawrie back to 2nd Base
Have you heard of a thing called The Jays Talk?
by StreakyJays on Jul 29, 2011 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
hehe... Let's invent a base between 2nd and 3rd...
I know he doesn’t have what it takes to cut it at 2nd.. So let’s invent a base between 2nd and 3rd! Let’s call the new base… Shortstop… And then we’ll put Brett Lawrie there… He played it in Little League!
by JaysFanExiledinOTT on Jul 30, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
this
although bautista has been shockingly good at 3B so far this year (both from watching him and from uzr/drs numbers), but there’s no reason to think that this is anything more than a hot streak for him and that he’s no longer the -10 defender he’s been at 3B for his career
You know, generally I don't despute stats, but regarding J-bau, they haven't been right since his trade.
They don’t take into account his frame of mind, right? I dunno, before TO, everyday, he was playing for his job…
by StreakyJays on Jul 30, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
so he was worse because he was playing for his job?
you’d think he would be better, no?
COLBY RASMUS
So the overall conclusion is
to keep HILL on a reworked contract, say $3 million per?
by Marcos Montenegro on Jul 29, 2011 11:25 PM EDT reply actions
if possible, yes
he would be the only black hole in the lineup, and his defence makes up for it
COLBY RASMUS
I dont think that is the conclusion
if we can get a 3-4WAR 2B (like Johnson) for not too much money, thats better than having a 1-2WAR-at-best Hill in the lineup, regardless of his defense or cheap contract.
A 3-4 WAR player...
…is worth $14-18 million per season. The current market price is $4.5MM/WAR
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Jul 31, 2011 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought closer to $5M
but either way, I’d imagine Kelly could be had for $10-$12M per season. I think he’d earn that contract pretty easily
WAR... WAR never changes.
I've used $5MM myself a few times...
…and I have no problem with it.
The bottom line is that in an efficient market, you will pay what a player is worth, on average. Of course arbitration and pre-arbitration players earn less than their market value. If Johnson does project as a 4 WAR player (he’s currently 0.6 WAR) his agent should be aiming to get $20MM. Maybe his 2011 performance will discount that somewhat.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 1, 2011 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
contracts are generally more weighted on the most recent year (for obvious reasons) so it’s likely the Jays could aim for a small discount
WAR... WAR never changes.
Uggla got 5 years for 62M this offseason
Which is basically 2.5 WAR per season. He had averaged 4 wins per season in his career, and had just come off a 5WAR season. Using standard 0.5WAR decline per year, his current contract is paying him for seasons of 3.5, 3, 2.5, 2, and 1.5 WAR. That is worse than anyone expected him to put up over the length of his contract (though, of course, the Braves would have been thrilled with a 2.5WAR season over what hes currently done in 2011).
Johnson is younger, but doesnt have quite the track record that Uggla did and will be overshadowed in the market by Reyes (Uggla was the prize middle infield FA this past season). I think he gets a little bit less than Uggla did (hence my 4 for 44 estimate in my fan post), but he could almost certainly put up the production over the next 5 seasons to make an Uggla-level contract worthwhile at 5M per WAR.
That my vote, unless you can pick up a guy like Johnson for a very reasonable deal. Hill is in an interesting position right now. I think if the Jays decline his options and push something like 2yr/$4-5M at him, he’ll take it. Hill was a good bat in the past, and there’s always a chance he’ll rebound. He’s a solid defensive 2B, and if his swing comes around, he’d be a bargin. If not, he’s not costing you enough to block other options.
why would the Jays give him a guaranteed 2 year deal?
he has no leverage, coming off 1 bad and 1 terrible season. Hed be lucky to get a 1 year deal plus option. I think, if they offer him anything at all, a 1 year contract for $2M, maybe with a team option for $2.5 is as high as they should go. And I still think $10M per year for Johnson is a better signing, which would render Hill unnecessary, since we have to pay Teahen to be a replacement-level utility guy
Johnson isn’t having a breakout year right now and isn’t a particularly good defender. So signing him for the 3-4 year and $40M+ contract does not exactly inspire a great deal of excitement in me, when we can get a guy who’s downside worst is around half the value for a fraction of the cost. You want to make it a team option, whatever.
Regardless, if he comes back, he’s easily worth the same money as Johnson without the risk, and if he doesn’t, his cost doesn’t prevent the Jays from making another move. Remember, the only real backup for Hill in the system for 2012 right now is McCoy. Would I take Johnson? Sure, but he’s not a guaranteed bat by any means. And if he pulls the same thing that Hill did this year and follow a bad year with another bad year, you’re looking at an expensive contract that you’re committed to.
by the metrics
he’s about average, and his bat is miles ahead of Hill’s (league average production = about 2.5-3 wins from 2B). the past two years UZR likes him too (though he was roughly average before that) so we’re not losing that much in terms of defense. by his bat, Johnson’s not a sure thing (who is?) but he’ll be worth 8 oWAR over the past 2 seasons at the end of 2011 – again, miles ahead of Hill.
and at some point, you stop worrying about “oh no, we’re overpaying by $3M over 4 years on this deal!” and start getting actually good players
WAR... WAR never changes.
i've heard from @CapitolAvenue time and time again that KJohnson is not a good defender at 2B
and I know he’s a pretty reliable source.
COLBY RASMUS
that's true
and his crowdsource defense reports aren’t great on FG either. but he’s probably not much worse than slightly below average, given all the discrepancies between metrics
WAR... WAR never changes.
I’d rather have a guy who’s bat is a defacto good player, as opposed to a guy who draws walks and goes up and down with his offense. Thi isn’t Robinson Cano we’re talking about getting.
I’m not trying to argue against Kelly Johnson, but overpaying for him when he’s got questions instead of some of the other areas, like pitching and the bullpen, and ignoring a cheap option with a high possible upside like Hill looks like personal bias.
the guy is going to be worth probably 2.5-5.5 wins per season
paying $12 is basically paying market value for his worst case scenario. that’s not overpaying at all, and you still have the chance to see the monster 2010 bat. FWIW, his bat is weak this year at least partly due to a low BABIP.
and I’m not biased against Hill, at least insofar as it’s not bias because he’s been brutal for two straight seasons, even with good D
WAR... WAR never changes.
How does the "B" rating affect the decision?
by Marcos Montenegro on Aug 2, 2011 1:24 PM EDT reply actions
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