Jose Bautista homers but Red Sox, with the help of a bad call, beat Jays.
by Tom Dakers on Jul 6, 2011 12:29 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Game Recaps
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PrintBlue Jays 2 Red Sox 3
Let's start by saying the obvious, he was safe. Yeah, I know, you can't expect to get that call in Boston but he was safe. It wasn't an easy call, it might not have been the best slide, but he was safe. If you want evidence, here.
It was a great 9th inning against that insufferable jerk the Red Sox use as a closer. Corey Patterson started it with a single and Jose Bautista homered to make it a 1 run game. Lind struck out, EE singled, Snider flied out and Arencibia took a walk to move EE to second. Then John McDonald was up, I figured they would pinch hit but they really didn't have anyone left. Mac came through with a single to left, Darnell McDonald charged the ball well, made a good throw, Varitek blocked the plate well, but Edwin was safe, but the plate umpire didn't see it that way.
That was about all the offense we got today. We had a chance in the 6th inning. With two out Corey Patterson had a great, long at bat, working a walk, then Jose Bautista singled, giving us runners on first and second, two out. Now there is a cardinal rule to baseball, never make the third out at third base. Why? Because there is very little gained from moving from 2nd to 3rd with 2 out. With players running on contact, you'll score from second on almost any single. It is one of those things baseball players are told from little league, don't make the third out at third base.
Corey didn't get the memo and was caught trying to steal third. Blue Jay Hunter noted, on twitter, that Corey has tried to steal 3rd 3 times and had been caught each time. Please stop. On the flip side, Rajai Davis has tried to steal 3rd 13 times and has been safe every time. If you are going to try to steal third you gotta be safe. There is so little gain.When you are on second, you are already in scoring position. So if you are going to try to steal third, be safe.
We only had 6 hits on the day, 2 each for Bautista and McDonald and 1 each for EE and Corey. JP took 3 walks. Jon Lester was having a very easy time against us, he had a no hitter going for 4 innings before he left with a 'lat strain'.
Brett Cecil gave up 3 runs in the first 3 innings but in all it was a good start. 8 inning complete game, with just 7 hits, 2 walks, 3 earned with 6 strikeouts. You have to feel pretty good about that against the Red Sox.
Jays of the Day? I'm giving one to Bautista (.092 WPA) and JP (.090) and I'm going to give one to Mac too, he is listed at -.180 but that is because of the bad call at the plate. Suckage numbers go to Lind (-.180) and Snider (-.126).
Snider played an inning in CF, after Rajai Davis was pinch hit for.
John Lott Tweeted this:
Post replay, ump should, at very least, agree to talk to reporter(s) to explain/rationalize/acknowledge whether right or wrong.
I agree, everyone on the field should be accountable.
Tomorrow night is the final game of this series, Ricky Romero (7-7, 2.75) goes against Tim Wakefield (4-3, 4.82). I hate facing Wakefield. You never know if this is going to be the game when his knuckleball will be unhittable.
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Ugh..this game has made me mad all night.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
I know it doesn’t matter much but there should be an error awarded to McCoy and an unearned run against Cecil. He was great today.
MLB should allow the use of replay’s in situation such as these. It doesn’t hurt to take 2 minutes and get the call right.
they ruled it an error
then changed it to a base hit. They can make those corrections after the games.
Buck agreed it should be a base hit… if that means anything =p
by bowling_kid25 on Jul 6, 2011 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Sigh when will the MLB expand the replay rule
i am not 100% sure its a good thing but its after games like this that i just want them to expand it. I always flavour the challenge system, i feel is the best solution
Why would you expect the ump to make that call in Boston?
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jul 6, 2011 1:10 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
In fairness, that was a pretty tough call, but yes in Boston they will probably get the benefit of the doubt. EE would have been better off going directly at the plate?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Jul 6, 2011 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Again
Why would the venue give the Sox benefit of the doubt?
“I didn’t get a good view, but I don’t want to get booed, so I’ll call him out?”
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jul 6, 2011 1:33 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was agreeing with you about that, I don’t like it either. Baseball needs to use replay.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Jul 6, 2011 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
EE should have plowed over the old man
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jul 6, 2011 1:43 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Aren't you concerned EE would get injured?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Jul 6, 2011 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
totally subconsciously, but yes
the human brain often does sort of work that way
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Here’s a link to feel better – ’86 World Series – The bottom of the 10th in Game 6 on RBI baseball (youtube). There have been worse endings for a team :)
by JaysSaskatchewan on Jul 6, 2011 1:13 AM EDT reply actions
Jon Rauch does not approve of bad calls
RAUCH SMASH!!!
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
I want to see Posada charge the mound after being hit by Rauch.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Jul 6, 2011 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Excuse me there, little manager, but I need to have a word with this tiny ump, here.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jul 6, 2011 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
That's a brutal way to lose a game
looked like it was a fairly easy call for a MLB ump to make. We’ve lost too many games on some bad calls
"I couldn't be on defense man, Lynch be hittin' everybody man" - Rod Smith
Next Jays game Wed Aug 11th @ SEA
Great outing from Cecil btw
Apart from the Pedroia homer it didn’t look like he was hit hard in the condensed game, and he was facing a very tough lineup, one which has given him trouble in the past.
MLB needs to take care of the problem, not only the symptoms
The issue with the Umpires is “Accountability and Transparency”.
“benefiting the home team” and “not talking to media”, as well as “limited use of replay” are just symptoms.
Someone has to make it very clear to the umps’ union, that they have two choices: Either you commit to full transparency and accountability, or it’s “robot time”. The technology is already here, so it can happen tomorrow.
Problem is, I can’t see who that someone’s going to be. With the PEDs, the government forced the "Seligs"’ hand. That won’t happen here. So I guess our best course for now is keep the pressure on the umps, and at least get those calls when at the Rogers Center…
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
On a positive note...this makes me smile!
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
Sorry for the huge space at the bottom.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
dotel is better then nunez?
I’m not quite sure either…
by bowling_kid25 on Jul 6, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh I was just trying to showcase the similarities in these Major Leaguers when they played in the minors.
To Ronald Uviedo, our RP in Triple-A Las Vegas.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
I have no idea, but I think it is amazing that he has similiar minor league numbers, and has been compared to Leo Nunez..
and we got him for….Dana Eveland..?
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jul 6, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Farrell Ball
Tom, the fact that Farrell kinda punted this one with the starting lineup is also part of the story. Patterson did score what could have been a key run, but I would still rather have someone with a baseball IQ start. Then Patterson is in his proper role – as a late-game pinch runner when the tying run is on 3rd.
What’s the rule on late scratches? Could Hill have started without losing McCoy on the bench after Escobar was a late scratch?
players need days off
it didn’t work out, but I don’t think it’s such a big deal (we did talk about this in the game thread)
Also it makes sense giving Thames the night off last night. He obviously needs a rest now and again and going against a lefty like Lester could’ve hurt Thames’ confidence when he’s on such a roll. As for Hill getting the day off, he was supposed to get the day off on Friday, but Esco’s injury made them push his day off back another 4 days. They were hoping to get him out of the lineup while Escobar was in but it didn’t work out like that.
Lou Gehrig didn't. Pete Rose didn't. Cal Ripken didn't.
by Defense Counts! on Jul 6, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course!
John Farrell should have played one of those three guys instead!
by GettinGiggy on Jul 6, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Oh, c'mon, you know the point I'm making.
How is it that Gehrig and Ripken can play over 2000 consecutive games, but today’s players can’t handle more than 40 in a row?
by Defense Counts! on Jul 6, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
magic
also those players were orders of magnitude more valuable than the difference between Aaron Hill and Mike McCoy
Gehrig played in an entirely different era. Ripken was an outlier. Most players perform better overall when they get a day off now and then, and this advantage is worth it.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jul 6, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
do they, though?
I’d like to see a statistical study on that. I’d think it’d be difficult seeing that players who get the fewest off days are generally the best players
Fair point. I believe they do better, and there’s logic to it; plus your bench guys need to see action sometime… but I can’t say I’ve seen evidence. I guess the best would be a study of very good players (who only get benched for rest) compared to their own performance in seasons with more and less time off (excluding injuries).
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jul 6, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
The trouble with that kind of analysis
is teasing out when players are benched for “rest” and when they’re benched for a little, nagging injury. Realistically, it’s often (though not always) the same thing. Furthermore, if Farrell decides to give Thames the day off partially for rest but also partially because he’s facing a tough lefty, how do you separate that out? By resting him against a tough pitcher, you’re skewing his results towards performing better with rest.
To be perfectly honest, I’d almost think a direct approach of surveying the athletes would be a more effective means of answering this kind of question than using the statistical evidence at hand (given the difficulty in separating out the effects of injury rest and opposing pitcher).
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
ummm, for every Gehrig or Ripken
how many players were run into the ground and lost effectiveness because they didn’t get days off?
More than two.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Immensely different kind of game in Gehrig’s time, and Ripkin was an outlier even when he was playing in the 80s and 90s. The easiest, shortest answer is that up until the mid-late 80s when salaries started to really climb, you played guys until they broke down and you replaced them immediately. Now, players represent an investment, so you want to make sure that they aren’t played into the ground.
It certainly didn't hurt Bautista to play 161 games last year.
And Tony Fernandez and Carlos Delgado had their best years when they played every day.
by Defense Counts! on Jul 6, 2011 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
And?
It’s not relevent to a conversation about resting players to cherry pick players and say that proves your argument. Do you want me to provide a list of players who’s careers were prematurely ended because they didn’t get rested and a little injury turned into a big one?
Baseball conditioning is better, baseball medicine is better, and we know a lot more about the stress that playing the game at an elite level takes. The reason all starting pitchers don’t throw three hundred innings a year any more is someone finally noticed that their shoulders tended to blow up after a few years. The reason you rest guys is because everyone accumilates little injuries and nagging aches over the season that get worse the longer that they get ignored. Players in pain tend to make mistakes that turn into season and career ending injuries.
It is smarter financially and safer physically to rest players through the year. And yes, there are some players who defy that logic and just seem to be able to play everyday no matter what. There are also guys who will break down regardless of how carefully they are handled and rested. But you base your practices on the average, not the outlier.
The argument given by managers is that a player needs "rest"
Now, maybe they’re covering for something more serious, but if that’s not the case then I don’t see why a player needs rest just because he’s played in 40 or so consecutive games.
by Defense Counts! on Jul 7, 2011 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Great point
though we prefer to call them “greenies”!
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
it was a really tough call, from his angle
I’m not sure how he could see the phantom tag AND see edwin’s back leg sweep in and touch the plate, his eyes would need to be watching two different things very closely. I think EE should have ran him over… varitek barely even bent over to tag hes so old….oh well
I want JF to come out and say he gave CoPa the green light or not. I am more interested in that then the ump saying “whoops”
According to the National Post, it looks like it was Patterson's decision
Farrell called the move "a poor decision, to try to make something happen when we’ve got really the only rally … to that point in time in the game. Your four-hole hitter [is] up. That was a poor decision."
(http://sports.nationalpost.com/2011/07/05/jays-rally-falls-short-in-boston/)
No problem
I wonder now what the repercussions of this will be. Just a simple benching for the next game or two, or will CoPa have his green light taken away from him – or even worse, perhaps? Is there anyone else in AAA who’s ready to be called up? It seems like AA has been more willing to DFA some of the veterans lately in favour of younger talent – could CoPa be next?
Problem is
Patterson’s been doing this all season. For a guy who’s been in the league for as long as he has and is as fast as he is, Patterson has remarkably poor baserunning instincts (along with poor fielding instincts, heck just generally bad baseball instincts). His steals are below the break even point and he’s had problems taking the extra base at times because he breaks the wrong way or at the wrong time.
He’s starting to remind me of Alex Rios, and not in a good way.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jul 6, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I may be in the minority here
but I always thought Rios had excellent instincts. He covered a lot of ground in right (and centre, when he played there) and he stole and took extra bases at a very good rate in his last few years with the Jays.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
the crappy play
and the couple of baserunning brain farts he had in his last season seem to have really coloured people’s perceptions of him
Yes, I do remember some instances specifically
but I also remember those instances being the exception to the rule. In the outfield, Rios particularly struck me as having good instincts.
I mean, just look at his writeup in the Top 50 Jays post and you can see how we felt about him prior to the 2009 season.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Those are all true, and would be good ways for a player to be compared to Rios. Fair or not, however, whenever I heard a report like “the Blue Jays gave up a run because a player forgot how many outs there were” I never had to guess which player it was. He got distracted easily.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jul 6, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I can think of at least three times off-hand. I say ‘fair or not’ because one bone-head moment stands out more than a week of bad decisions.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jul 6, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
though Rios
was over 77% on the bases while a Jay. His baserunning helped the team, notwithstanding the occasional error.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Importantly
You know there was something wrong when Cito, who notoriously favoured veteran hitters, publicly called out Rios. I don’t know what happened, but that sort of behaviour was uncharacteristic of Cito, so he must have really been cheesed at Rios to provoke that.
Personally, I think that Rios is so gifted athletically that he’s still a positive player in terms of runs, even with the occasional lapses. But he could be so much more and we as fans see it, particularly when there’s a spectacular mistake.
how do you know that
since he doesn’t run full speed to first on a walk like David Eckstein? how do you know he doesn’t just run “gracefully” (for lack of a better term)? the best example I can think of is guys like Morrow or Felix who don’t look like they’re throwing very hard (ie: with lots of effort) but if they tried harder, who’s to say they’d be better? we have absolutely no idea if Rios was trying his hardest, even on those couple of plays (mental mistakes does not always equal a lack of focus)
Further to Benk’s point, look at Usain Bolt when he’s running (especially the 200m). He has a long loping gate like a gazelle that moves him very fast even though it often looks like he may not me trying as hard. I think Rios has a very similar running style with the long legs. Small people always look like they try harder because their steps are so much shorter and therefore have to take so many more steps to go the same distance so they need to move their legs quicker. Tall people with their long strides look slower because it takes more time to move a foot 3 feet forward instead of a foot and a half so their stride looks slower.
I'm not disputing his effort
As you say, I have no way of knowing if he is providing maximum effort. My guess is that he provides just enough effort to get the job done, like most people. Cito would be a person who might know whether Rios is putting in sufficient effort.
I don’t think there is ever a problem with physical effort with Rios. I think Cito was perhaps pointing out a shortage of mental effort and perhaps Ozzie now agrees.
He should’ve been able to see that varitek hadn’t even tagged him and EE’s whole foot is on the plate already. I thought this was the best picture http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0d9p4jr9FW1By/610×.jpg
Looks like the ump practically already had his hand clenched to call him out.
by Nadia on Jul 6, 2011 8:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
looks like he could see
Ah well its a missed call, to be fair CoPa should have struck out, ball 1 was clearly strike three.
by bowling_kid25 on Jul 6, 2011 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
nah,
whether umpires admit it or not, the strike zone expands and contracts with the count
http://bjays.wordpress.com/2009/01/03/strikeouts-are-fascist-walks-too/
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
The throw did beat him by a lot
It took an extremely evasive slide and a lazy tag for EE to be safe. I wouldn’t blame the ump for anticipating an out, but he can’t get that call wrong.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jul 6, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
The ball beating EE to the plate is key
Usually, this is the clincher for the umpire and unless there’s an unusual tag or slide, the umpire is going to call the out. In this case, the umpire saw the ball into the mitt and saw EE’s left leg blocked at the plate. At this point, he’s just looking at the mitt for the tag to be applied. I understand why he would have missed EE’s right leg kicking out to touch the plate because it’s not in line with the mitt.
However, I think it’s clear that MLB should have some sort of replay system to handle these situations where it is very hard for a human umpire to see everything at the same time. I like the flag system with limited challenges because it provides for replay without adding too much delay to the game. Heck, the umpire’s union might go for it if you make the replay umpire part of the union and it provides a way for older umpires to retire from the field but still be part of the game.
by siggian on Jul 6, 2011 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords
As long as challenges don’t disturb the flow of the game.
I think it should be like football
either you start with one or two challenges, and if you get all of your challenges correct you receive an additional challenge. in the case of inconclusive, call on the field stands. if you don’t challenge before the next on-field event occurs (next pitch, presumably) then you forfeit challenging rights
oops, forgot something
I don’t think it should be extended to strike/ball calls though, that would slow the game down much too much. strike/balls should be pitchFX or some derivative
i think the umps
need to be graded on the accuracy of the calls, and everytime when they drop below a certain percent they lose their spot, get re trained, whatever.
its never going to be perfect, thats not baseball, but some umps are just horrible and that needs to change.
by bowling_kid25 on Jul 6, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that, in theory, they are graded.
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
How fast is Pitchf/x at ball/strike decisions?
I know that Gameday is delayed by at least a few seconds, but is that because of Pitchf/x itself, or because someone needs to type in the pitch type, etc.? If it can make ball/strike decisions in real time, then I see no reason why it shouldn’t be used for those decisions. Heck, you could even still keep an umpire there to make the actual call – just give him a little device with a Pitchf/x display and he could make the calls based on that.
yeah I don't know either
and obviously it would be unfeasible to delay the game by, say, 300 pitches x 3 seconds = 15 minutes when plenty of fans already complain that games are too long. but yeah I don’t know the answer to your question
On some of the more fancy broadcasts, they show pitch location literally seconds after the pitch was delivered.
i think the problem with real time
is that the strike zone varies based on how tall the batter is. if there was a set zone, then they could have sensors and easily have instant ball/strike calls.
i mean they could put sensors on the players uniform… or one that recognizes a knee cap and a logo?
I’m sure there are ways if they wanted too.
by bowling_kid25 on Jul 6, 2011 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
well presumablt someone would need to be operating the machinery
I’m sure it wouldn’t be that difficult to input different heigh parameters
Pitch F/X does analysis on location, speed, spin, etc to get a bunch of different information. I’m sure there is something out there that can do location in milliseconds and buzz the ump if its a strike or ball. But, this might just be wishful thinking.
Unless they can make everything robotic and fast, I like the 2 challenge approach. And maybe make it umpire re-viewable if it ends the game (say in a walk-off or a call like last night)
well really
the 2 challenge approach and the robotic ball-strike calls are actually 2 separate issues, since the challenges would be for on-field calls only. so ideally, both would be implemented
only kind of relevant
but after yesterday’s game Bautista has nearly re-opened his lead of 1 WAR on the next closest player
he's been worth $27.3M as per FanGraphs
so he’ll probably be worth like 35-40M this year of a 65M contract. frickin’ ridiculous
Step 1: M
Step 2: V
Step 3:….
Step 4: Profit!
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
by JohnnyG on Jul 6, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
oh
yes plz. it’s kind of disturbing that people think AGon is leading the MVP vote when Bautista’s been worth 25% more value than him, and well over a win more even discounting the positional adjustments
nope
Adrian Gonzalez: 75 RBI
Jose Bautista: 58 RBI
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
oh I know why
there’s the whole team-record thing too. but come on people, context-neutrality plz
WAR... WAR never changes.
I was trying to make a joke
that he should be leading
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
That's a huge problem with that analysis.
Zach Grienke was worth $42M during his Cy Young year.
Suuuuuuuure.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jul 6, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
except it stands up to empirical analysis
just that there’s the obvious effect of uncertainty. no one expects Greinke to continue posting 9 WAR seasons (lo and behold, he didn’t) as well as the fact that most contracts back-load, balancing out cheaper early performance with more expensive later performance (overpaying for the first few years). it might not work all the time at really high WAR scores, but the $5M/win ratio works pretty well in general.
Ok
What’s more likely. $42M is a reasonable salary for a SP on a 5th place team, or there is something flawed by the metric?
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jul 6, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
it has nothing to do with a 5th place team
it has to do with how much a team would pay for that much guaranteed production on the open market (this is important). besides, now that I think about it, it’s probably an exponential function not a root function since super-elite players are so much less common than simply “good” ones
$42M has nothing to do with a 5th place team?
This isn’t monopoly money. You tell the owner that is writing his $1.3M game checks that.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jul 6, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
no doubt
a season like Greinke’s is worth more to a contending team than a cellar team. And, no doubt that WAR doesn’t take that into effect. It is context neutral, which is the only fair way to judge players against one another.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
no it doesn't
since it has nothing to do with the team itself. we’re talking open market here. you can’t see the Yanks paying 42M for by far and away the best team in baseball?
Again
Real world benk.
Grienke was not worth $42M to the 2009 Kansas City Royals baseball team. I don’t care if he went 32-0 with a 0.00 ERA and they still went 32-130.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jul 6, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
the Yankees
are in the real world. as hugo says, it’s context neutral, why does a player lose value for being on a garbage team? he’s still the same player
Right, the analysis assumes the player is a free agent before the season
and when he signs his contract, everyone knows exactly what he’s going to do over the course of the season — no risk involved at all.
The long and short of it is, look how much money the Phillies invested in Cliff Lee — and the Yankees would have invested more (!) — in spite of the risk involved. Now imagine he’s going to be way better than Cliff Lee likely will (as Greinke was that season) and take all risk of him getting injured or just simply sucking out of the equation.
You don’t think someone would have paid him $40M?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Exactly. If you put the $ value for WAR in the context above it makes sense. If the Yankees knew they were going to be going to be getting a player who guaranteed would be putting up 25 WAR over the next 5 seasons combined do you not think they’d give him the $125 mil contract? Therefore the value is 5mil per win.
They'd likely pay well more than even that, don't you think?
risk-less contracts are virtually impossible to find.
The Yankees agreed to a contract to pay Sabathia $23M / season for seven (!) years in spite of the risk involved there and they can’t have possibly expected him to be worth more than about 6 wins/season.
Add on top of that, Sabathia has an opt-out (!) clause after this season. I kind of hope he continues to pitch well just so the Yankees have to renegotiate his contract with him like they did with Alex Rodriguez.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
interestingly,
Jim Bouton uses the word “suuuuuure” extensively in Ball Four to get at the very same sentiment!
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I think WAR to $$ is fairly linear for the lower WAR scores but it probably plateaus at some amount if we are talking reality here
by Minor Leaguer on Jul 6, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
hahaha, nice figure,
and that’s probably how it actually works empirically, likely because teams don’t want to invest too much in a player and risk losing everything if he gets hurt. It may also be evidence of the fact that these $/WAR-values are driven in a lot of ways by free agents that have lots of teams competing to sign them (20+ teams) and there are not even teams that can maintain the kind of payroll to get the really well-paid guys (3 or 4 teams).
However, as benk stated before, since 1 exceptional player (6 WAR) is way more valuable than 2 above-average players (3 WAR, each), the $-value of each WAR should actually scale up above a certain critical point.
Why fangraphs hasn’t incorporated this scaling-$ method into the equation, I really don’t understand. It might be somewhat difficult to do, but it would really tell the story better.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
These are awesome!
The world needs more graphs that use Comic Sans, and this is a great place to start!
Hmmm
how about you make your dependent variable “Realized $-value for Player”
You could make one with “Actual $-value for Team” which begin to increase exponentially past around 4-5 WAR
by the way — love it.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I love that graph
but here’s another thought. as a player becomes more “transcendent” (I didn’t want to say super-super-elite), the inherent risks in any contract – injury, mostly – become more and more damaging. so as you get to, like, 8 win status, a nagging injury that keeps you out for a month can easily cost you 7-8 million. whereas an injury like that to, a 4 win player costs you 3 million, so maybe Minor Leaguer’s original graph does hold merit.
agreed
I think there are a number of factors at play that govern how much teams are willing to spend.
However, I don’t think the actual $-value breaks down from being exponential at all because — remember — we’re talking about $/WAR when we know how much WAR the player will produce.
I do agree (and I think I alluded to it above) with you that the risk of injury becomes inherently greater as the player getting injured is better. In this case, though, we’re talking about how much you’d have to pay on the open market for a known amount of production (i.e., Bautista’s been worth 6 WAR, last offseason, it would have cost $30 M to sign 1-yr deals for free agents worth 6 WAR).
There are certainly flaws to the method, and you really can’t read too much into the $-values (as we’ve discussed today) but it is an interesting way to look at things, especially considering we all want to know whether a contract is “a steal” or “an albatross” or anywhere in between.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
You're right, Craig.
What’s often ignored in these discussions is what that $42M includes. Basically, fangraphs takes all the free agent contracts signed in the offseason (I don’t think they include arbitration 40/60/80 analyses in this, though they might) and projected (?) WAR values for the season to find about how much each contract is paying each free agent for each WAR.
As benk said above, this value is subject to fluctuation (due to backloading) and inflation, coming to around $5M this year. Part of the analysis is that you’re never really sure what you get with a free agent contract and players are more likely to drop off a cliff after a free agent signing than they are to suddenly become amazing. When you think about the fact that a lot of truly horrific contracts are included in these analyses it makes more sense.
Consider this: over Barry Zito’s entire $126M contract, he is unlikely to be worth the 9.4 WAR that fangraphs pegged Greinke’s $42M season at.
I think it would be valuable if someone on the site wanted to a full primer on that.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Good point
It’s hard to accurately guage what a free agent is worth on the true open market when there are teams like the Yankees, Sox and Phillies etc that will overpay.
Happiness is a long walk with a putter.
by craig in calgary on Jul 6, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
if more than one team will pay it
particularly a team that benefits the most from extra wins (teams that are in playoff contention) when does it stop being overpaying and start being market value?
What I consider a somewhat conservative estimate of 2.0 WAR in the second half,
1/3 of what he accumulated in the first half, would put him at about $36M value according to fangraphs.
Absolutely bonkers
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
A good thing I noticed
Jedi has hit his last three home runs off of:
Roy Halladay – 1st run off of Roy
Cliff Lee – Game Winner
Johnathon “Douche” Paplebon – 2Run shot that ignited a rally snuffed about by premature umping.
So much for any talk that Jedi isn’t “clutch.”
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jul 6, 2011 11:16 AM EDT reply actions
Some last year.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jul 6, 2011 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Not here though.
But there was talk that he didn’t hit “important” ones.
When you hit 54, not all them are going to be at critical moments.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jul 6, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Great defensive shortstop, and how could you not mention that hes the best hitter in the MLB for the last 15 years also..
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jul 6, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn you sarcasm font.
"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives." - Jackie Robinson
by Joseph Kirby on Jul 6, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
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