FanPost

The Jays bullpen and meltdowns


After the horrible collapse by the bullpen last night, there was understandably a lot of anguish about how bad the Jays bullpen looks. The meltdown in the 9th hides the fact that the bullpen did a good job in the previous two innings. I do think the team suffers from not having a reliable arm to close a game, but as a collective, they seem to have reasonably well if you look at shutdowns vs meltdowns (data from Fangraphs).

A reliever earns a shutdown by collecting +.065 WPA  and a meltdown by collecting a -.065 WPA (such as Perez last night). See http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/sd-md/ for more information about these stats.

 

Team SD MD SD/MD
Indians 75 24 3.13
Giants 97 35 2.77
Phillies 67 25 2.68
Braves 101 38 2.66
Padres 83 33 2.52
Yankees 71 31 2.29
Mariners 48 23 2.09
Blue Jays @ #8
73 35 2.09
Red Sox 60 29 2.07
Reds 72 35 2.06
Pirates 86 43 2.00
Athletics 65 33 1.97
Angels 74 38 1.95
Marlins 81 42 1.93
Royals 81 42 1.93
White Sox 62 33 1.88
Diamondbacks 73 40 1.83
Nationals 76 42 1.81
Mets 67 38 1.76
Rockies 72 41 1.76
Tigers 55 32 1.72
Brewers 67 40 1.68
Twins 60 39 1.54
Cubs 60 41 1.46
Orioles 55 39 1.41
Rays 45 35 1.29
Rangers 49 39 1.26
Cardinals 63 51 1.24
Dodgers 45 37 1.22
Astros 42 43

0.98

 

And here's the shutdowns and meltdowns for the individual Jays relievers*

 

Name SD MD SD/MD
Casey Janssen 8 1 8.00
Carlos Villanueva 4 1 4.00
Jason Frasor 11 3 3.67
Octavio Dotel 7 2 3.50
Shawn Camp 10 5 2.00
Marc Rzepczynski 9 5 1.80
Jon Rauch 11 7 1.57
Frank Francisco 9 7 1.29
Luis Perez 3 3 1.00
David Purcey 1 1 1.00

 

* Scott Richmond and Mike McCoy excluded from the list because they haven't earned either one.

FWIW, after an entire season, an average reliever will have about 1.6:1 SD:MD and a replacement reliever about 1:1.

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