Questions + poll
by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 13, 2011 9:54 AM EDT
Email
Print
1. What is AA's best move so far (poll after)?
I'll go with the Vernon Wells trade but there are some other candidates.
2. Is it possible there was another team interested in Vernon Wells last winter?
It would help explain the lack of money going the other way. Another possibility is that AA is just that good :)
3. Are our AA pitchers a bit overrated?
With Gose and Hech playing well above average defense at key positions the pitching stats might not be as good as they look. Hopefully the Jays will have the same problem at some point. It seems like every pitcher that gets called up from Dunedin has a pretty good transition to AA. I could be wrong though, please tell me why...
4. Which free agents will AA7 sign? I've seen a lot of comments and recommendations on who to sign and such. Assuming Alex doesn't change his strategy who do you think our free agent targets will be? Any ideas for players to trade for (take) given AA's tendencies?
AA has done a good job so far (understatement) and I don't see any reason to change course. I much prefer stealing talent than giving out $100-150M contracts. Here are some free agent ideas, all of whom are Type B free agents and would hopefully be Type B after 2012 as well (assuming the CBA retains similar compensation):
Catcher:
Second base:
Bullpen
These aren't sexy signings but they are the types of players we have used to acquire Rasmus and Escobar along with a lot of prospects from the resulting compensation picks. Hopefully there are no mistakes in here. Post a comment if someone isn't a free agent, etc.
28 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
i went Vernon.
Vernon had one of the worst contracts of all time and AA got us out of it. Plus, I think that the Vernon trade gave AA the money and more importantly the breathing room to sign Jose long term. If the Jose deal didn’t work then AA would be fine because he still had the Wells trade to keep his job safe.
I am a fan of a team in the NBA, MLB, NHL, and NFL. I haven't seen the playoffs since April 28th, 2008 (1st round exit by raps). I haven't seen playoffs past the 1st round since January 26th, 2006. Stop and think about how insane it is. And depressing.
i think it has to be the JBau contract
the Wells trade probably created about $40 million of value for the team ($85 million salary minus $5 million we sent, minus $5 million to pay rivera, minus ~$35 million that Wells probably would’ve been able to get on a 4 year contract as a free agent last season).
the Bautista contract probably created about $70 million of value (we had him cheap for this season anyway, but now we only have to pay him $14 million a year from 2012 to 2016; if we project him as a 6 WAR player in 2012 with a typical decline and 5% annual salary inflation, he’s got about $70 million surplus over those years)
has to be vernon
with Bautista, there’s still risk that he could either get injured or become significantly worse. With Vernon, it doens’t matter what he does, we still gained by roughly $70 million dollars
I demand to be heard.
I agree with you
that it is VW but it isn’t impossible for Vernon to have a 4 WAR season or two left in his tickle trunk. If he does then the $70M would be significantly reduced. It isn’t likely but it isn’t impossible either…
by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 13, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Then why does it matter how well Bautista does? Didn’t we automatically ‘lose’ $70M there too?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 13, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
It seemed like a surplus value comparison. If we give Bautista to the Angels do we gain $70M because he is no longer our property?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 13, 2011 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, but it wouldn’t necessarily be a ‘gain’ if he produced more than that value in WAR over the 5 year period.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 13, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
it seems i was being unnecessarily obtuse
yes, you’re right. Bautista is likely to provide surplus value. My early point Re: wells was under the assumption that he’s a near replacement level player for the next 4 years
I demand to be heard.
No worries and I agree that he will likely be replacement level over that time period.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 13, 2011 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
because by giving away vernon, we aren't commiting 70 million dollars to a player.
in bautista’s case, we need the player to perform to get value out of the contract.
I demand to be heard.
If we gave away Bautista wouldn’t the same logic apply?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 13, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
that's the wrong way to look at it
you need to be looking at production relative to salary. think of it this way: would you rather right now have both wells and bautista on the team (along with their current contracts), or neither? if you’d rather have both, then you think the bautista contract has more surplus value than the wells one has negative value, and thus the bautista signing was a better move. if you’d rather have neither, then you think the wells contract has more negative equity than the bautista one has positive, and thus you think that dumping wells was a better move.
I think we're already benefiting with the Yunel's production this year, which are in line with his career numbers, so any significant regression is not expected.
There was a tweet earlier by someone that the only reason why Yunel gets on base so much is because he can’t understand Murph. Jokes :D
I went with the Bautista contract.
Even if he slumps or doesn’t keep up his outstanding production there is a chance he could be moved in the future, largely due to the team friendly contract he is signed to.
Harry Doyle: The post-game show is brought to you by...
[searches through his papers]
Harry Doyle: Christ, I can't find it. To hell with it.
great poll… I’ll go with Vernon. It gave the team financial flexibility and it opened up the center field spot to get Rasmus. We could get him even with Vernon on the team but the outfield would be really clogged with no spots for either Thames or Snider.
I didn’t think anybody would take on that contract without us paying at least half of it or getting a horrible contract back ourselves but AA managed to do it and we got a decent arm in FF (even though he has been underperforming).
I always thought, if there was one thing that could hold this team back from contending anytime soon, it would be Wells contract but now, there is room for payroll and it allowed us to re-sign Bautista.
AA is so great at capitalizing on his opportunities.
I chose the Rasmus deal.
I think it was the most difficult one to pull off plus the fact that AA had been trying to obtain him for some time. If he plays to his potential, with the other young outfielders we have, it will open up even more flexability for AA down the road to make other moves.
The Escobar trade was a nicely timed trade (Braves were looking to deal), Baustista’s contract was great (maybe enabled by the Wells trade), and iirc, it was Aneheim that contacted AA about Vernon (missed out in the FA market, but still were looking to make a splash).
The final point that made it the Rasmus deal for me was the St. Louis’s fan base reaction (bonus points for getting them to take Patterson too).
Yes, the Angels contacted the Jays about Vernon but I’m thinking that there might have also been another team interested.
I wonder which fan base reaction was more negative to the trades, the Cardinals or the Angels.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 14, 2011 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I chose the Escobar Deal
AA gave up Alex Gonzalez who was having a very good year and two Average pitching prospects which the system is full of anyways. Alex Gonzalez wasn’t going to be part of the future of the Jays and these two pitching prospects are just two of many in the system so that makes you think that they were only possibly part of the Jays future. In return they got Escobar the Stud SS that we see now is having a career year and with some good coaching and a chance he has been really good. So they gave up Gonzalez and two prospects for a proven player at a premium position who is gifted both offensively and defensively.
Not to nitpick
but Pastornicky is a middle infielder, not a pitcher
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I am torn between the Wells trade and Bautista contract..
but I still thinks some props need to be given for the Lawrie trade. We gave up a good but not amazing pitcher, for a player of huge potential, and has been performing extremely well so far. Considering that Lawrie is only 21 and already making a big contribution in the majors makes that a great trade for the Jays.
"Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals... except the weasel."
In my opinion…it has to be the Wells trade, because with trading Wells, that frees up so much salary, and we used some of that to sign Bautista.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how little followers I have on Twitter]
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bluebird Banter
Related FanShots on Bluebird Banter
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
