Jays' 2011 Draft Haul: Norris, Comer, but no Beede
by Woodman663 on Aug 16, 2011 11:18 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintOf course the headline could also have said "Jays fail to sign Beede". Or, alternatively "Beede fails to accept big sum of money, goes to Vanderbilt". But even though Tyler Beede not accepting a 2.3-2.5 million dollar offer from the Jays is big news, it's not all that crucial to evaluating the success of the 2011 draft so far. Daniel Norris accepted his 2-2.5 million (not sure what reports I should believe), and he was rated more highly before the draft than Beede was. And we do get a compensation pick in next year's draft. Despite that draft class supposedly having less depth, at pick #23 there should definitely be some good talents to choose from, regardless of the draft's depth.
Here's a quote from AA, interviewed by Gregor Chisholm:
We put values on these players, if we can come to terms and meet those values, great, if not, the beauty of the way the structure is set up we get the picks back the following year.
AA's happy to try again next year, and he should be. He got Noah Syndergaard for just $600k in 2010. Justin Nicolino signed for almost the exact same amount. Mitchell Taylor signed for a little over $300k. Should the Jays spend $3.5 million on Beede if they could also sign 5+ possible Nicolinos for the same amount of money? I think you've got to go with quantity over quality in this case. No draft pick is a sure thing, and high school pitchers are possibly the most uncertain of all.
It does somewhat surprise me that the Jays apparently didn't break their own record from the 2010 draft, although they probably came close. By not signing Beede, Chin, Garza, Suarez, Norwood, Wiper, Glenn, Weaver, Seddon and the Nolas they had a pretty low signing ratio for the first 25 rounds of the draft. Time to quote AA again:
I don’t think we went into it with the expectation that they all sign. Not only that, but I think the model that we use going forward is what we’ve done here and we’re going to continue to do that. When you’re going to be aggressive like this, I expect each year to have several players unsigned. But on the whole I think we’re going to come out ahead especially with having the multiple picks and so on.
The aggressive strategy did get them the unexpected signatures of Matt Dean, Christian Lopes and Mark Biggs. And you could probably add Brady Dragmire and perhaps Derrick Loveless too.
So here's an idea: why not compare AA's first draft (2010) with his second (this year's)?
College pitching
It's Deck McGuire/Asher Wojciechowski/Sam Dyson versus John Stilson/Anthony DeSclafani. Stilson and Dyson are comparable in that their stuff is highly rated but they have injury concerns. Stilson's probably better, but DeSclafani does not have Wojo's pre-draft reputation, with both tagged as possible relievers even before they'd gone pro. Deck McGuire's presence, of course, makes this a clear win for the 2010 draft. The 2011 draft did not have a top-15 pick of course, so that's kinda cheating by the 2010 draft there.
Left-handed HS pitching
The 2010 draft had Murphy/Nicolino/Taylor/Adams. The 2011 draft has just Daniel Norris. Norris might be the most highly rated, but the depth of the 2010 haul beats 2011 in this category. Probably by a small margin if we try to forget that Justin Nicolino is pitching like a #1 prospect right now.
Right-handed HS pitching
The 2010 draft had Sanchez/Syndergaard/Jaye/Kelly. The 2011 draft has more impressive depth: Musgrove/Comer/Gabryszwski/Robson/Biggs/Dragmire. This category goes to the 2011 draft quite convincingly.
HS hitters
The 2010 draft wasn't too impressive in terms of bats, although it did feature the big bonus to Dickie Thon. Sweeney/Hawkins/Mims/Opitz/Pompey/Conner complete the haul from 2010. The 2011 draft features some more highly rated talent in Anderson/Smith/Lopes/Dean/Atkinson, but it has less depth. Despite injury problems for Thon, Sweeney and Mims, the 2010 class has done decently, featuring surprise performances from Pompey and Conner and the promising Hawkins. But if we forget those for a moment, the 2011 class probably looks slightly better.
Others
Lower round college picks are seldom exciting, but Andy Burns (missed a year) and Taylor Cole (missed even more) might have some upside. Jorge Vega-Rosado and Eric Arce from the 2011 draft are off to a good start, but so are Sean Nolin and especially Marcus Knecht from the 2010 draft. This minor category probably goes to the 2010 draft, as Nolin and Knecht were picked higher up in the draft.
Overall
It's really hard to compare drafts, especially when they both focus on high upside talent from high school. In a way, the 2011 draft was almost the exact same draft 2010 was, except this time AA had earned the extra supplemental picks through smart signings instead of Ricciardi's failed negotiations. The 2011 draft class was more highly rated, so it may turn out to provide a lot of talented prospects to enjoy in the coming years. It's now up to the coaching teams in the Jays organization to turn raw talent into skills. If AA has drafts like this every year, it's hard to complain.
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so....
sticking to their valuation and not giving in to the draftees cost the Jays Tyler Beede, but gained them the 21st pick in next year’s draft plus $2-3m in bonus savings on the Norris and Comer signings.
feels like 2010 was slightly bettert
but probably because some of those guys already have success in the minors.
I demand to be heard.
but 2011 was an obviously deeper draft
and i don’t feel like the jays took clear advantage, not that they had a really high pick.
I demand to be heard.
But we signed 20...
…of our top 21, didn’t we? That’s an enormous haul!
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 16, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
As you say...
…in a very deep draft.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 16, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
In baseball, the draft...
…is very much a crap shoot, which is why it goes 55 rounds. If even 4 or 5 players from any year’s draft by a team make a lasting contribution at the majors, it is a success.
So at this stage, to have signed as many has we have, is the best gauge of success.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 16, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
not arguing that
just saying this draft could’ve looked a lot better if more signed. Obviously it was a longshot.
I demand to be heard.
Sorry, bad information...
…I read something last night – by Griffin, I think – that said we signed 20 or our top 21. I should have checked with more reliable sources.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 16, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I just read the articale on the Jays website about the draft...
…and I’m not that disappointed on not signing Beede.
The vast majority of sport science and kinesiology experts say that a person should not throw a curveball young and Beede has been throw it since he’s 13. In his HOF speech, Blyleven sited Koufax’s advice not to allow youngsters to through the curve based on his lament that throwing the curveball lead to his arthritis that shortened his career.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 16, 2011 11:28 AM EDT reply actions
extremely happy with norris, comer, stilson, dean, and lopes
would’ve loved beede garza wiper and nola. that would’ve pushed it over the top.
I demand to be heard.
After sleeping and no longer being in panicmode (which feels nice) I’m definitely very happy with this. Also I don’t hate Beede. But I do hate Damien Cox.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 11:37 AM EDT reply actions
But I do hate Damien Cox
Aren’t we all?
;-p
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
did you see his tweet today though? what an idiot.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
DamoSpin Damien Cox
Amazing how many just accept failure of Jays to sign top pick. Its a setback. But nothing negative ever seems to stick to AA.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
This Just In:
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
I love lots of guys. - leaflover4ever
I just wanted to use the GIF. I’ll be going now.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
I love lots of guys. - leaflover4ever
Thanks.
Just another reminder of why I make no effort to listen to that guy, and usually change the channel or station whenever he’s on. Him and Kypreos, dumb and dumber of Toronto sports broadcasting.
by transmogrifier on Aug 16, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
you forgot E.Smith
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Not sure who he is but add Steve Simmons too.
Jeez the list goes on. How do these guys get hired?
by transmogrifier on Aug 16, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
you know whats a setback?
that he still gets to comment about a sport that he has no clue about
I demand to be heard.
He has no clue about hockey either, but that doesn't stop him.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
by JaysfanDL on Aug 16, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
rec'd
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
I honestly don’t get why he hates Toronto so much.. idiot.
"I like this one for everything & that one for the chicken" - GeniusInFrench
Aug/9/11 - ACC, Rogers Centre, HHOF, & Burke look-a-like (i.e. best day ever!!)
Well he is from Hamilton
But so am I. It only results in anti-Argo feelings, but generally embracing all other aspects of Toronto sports. There are always the idiot Hamiltonians that are 100% anti Toronto though.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
It's easier to be negative
writing something positive or constructive about the Jays, Leafs, etc. takes time doing research and analysis. However, criticism is easy and will always get support from less educated fans.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Ugh
I listened to PTS for like 30 seconds and he said women tennis players weren’t committed to training and working out. I wanted to slap him in the face. I don’t know how you look at the Williams sisters and see anything other than tank.
mee too
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
You forgot the sarcasm font
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I'm pretty sure...
He’s the one who said the only reason to watch womens sports is to see women in skimpy clothing and thats why he liked beach volleyball.
Might’ve been McCown though
I know right
He does not get enough crap for what he says about European players.
Drastic?
I just think he should be called out and held accountable.
sadly, the only measure is RATING
and, sadly, Cherry’s bosses think he’s “colorful” “blunt” rather than “racist idiot”
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
The same people must love Cox on PTS
I can’t see how he does anything but drag down the program
Ball.
Okay, not a race
But in terms of hockey players there are three groups, Canadian, American and European.
Jews aren't a race technically either...
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
really?
I can get into this discussion in length, but here is definitely not the place for it…
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
when you generalize on a group of people, based on the origin (“for example: All Swedish players are inferior to Canadian players”) – you’re a racist. no need to beat around the bush and play with semantics
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Oh, OK.
so we can settle for “subtle racism”.
He might be subtle, but his not-so-subtle avid listeners seem to all get the same message loud and clear. and then they call in and shout it “ever so subtly…”
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
I think ethnocentrism may be the term you're looking for
Doesn’t matter what you call it, it’s still disgusting.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
you're right.
good term, that one.
you might add Egocentrism to the package…
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Last night on Twitter...
…Beede was getting ripped universally for not signing. Only Vandy-related twits were praising the move.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 16, 2011 11:39 AM EDT reply actions
Chancy
I’m not sure Chin made the wrong choice. Maybe he did, but maybe he didn’t. AA was selling the Jays’ rehab program, trying to convince him to take ’slot’ish money now and let the professional medical people nurse his arm back to health while he starts college (not playing of course). Chin thought he’d be able to get the arm back into good health himself and then prove he’s a better talent than 5th round. Fair enough: if he’s willing to take the chance, it’s up to him.
life is unfair
Chin didn’t turn down 2.5 million dollars
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 16, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
There’s no point in blasting him on twitter, he made his choice now it’s time for people to get over it. I get that people are angry, but what good does making nasty comments at him do?
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
people vent their frustration
you see it on BBB daily.
People will get over it
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 16, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m fine with venting, but not directly to him.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Like, I was definitely venting. But I didn’t tweet him, because it’s stupid and pointless, not to mention kinda mean.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not a tweeter user, but ain’t that the whole point of this thing? To reach someone/anyone/everyone directly?
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
yes, but I don’t see the point in BASHING him. It just makes you look dumb. And this is just my personal opinion, but I’m not for using twitter to make hateful comments at people, athlete or otherwise.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
again though
it happens daily on here and people get blasted for defending. but because he’s an athlete its wrong?
I’m not saying Im pro-bashing, but he knew he was going to get backlash after turning down the offer because it wasn’t the 3.5 mil he wanted, and would not budge.
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 16, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I understand i really don't have a point here
it is unfair that he is getting grilled.
I’m just shocked that this place is so affected by it.
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 16, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
It's also creepy
At the end of the day, he’s an 18 year old kid getting blasted by people older than him that follow him just because he was drafted by their team.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Completely unfair. It’s his life if he wants to turn down multi-millions in order to take a chance at more (and consequently risk getting less) that’s his choice. He sent out a letter to everyone basically saying “I’m going to cost a whole lot” it’s not his fault that Tinnesh didn’t listen/care/believe it to be true.
I think it’s silly (who turns down that kind of scratch?) but it’s his silly choice to make. Twitter folk shouldn’t be jerks to him.
What kind of player turns down millions of dollars?
Is it so he can hide from the pressure of playing pro ball? Either he lacks the heart or he’s just that money hungry.
Maybe we dodged a bullet by not sighing this kid.
Oh well good luck at bible college.
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 11:41 AM EDT reply actions
i would argue there is more to life then money
and we wanted to do it for the experience, to have those college memories. but he would have signed for 3.5 million, he was just greedy
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 16, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I think this nickname might follow him around:
Tyler Too Greedy Beede
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
But that greed does not have to be in the form of $$
You could technically be greedy for philanthropy.
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
Exactly, its just like the theory that there is no such thing as selflessness because no one ever does anything that doesn’t in turn improve some aspect of their own life.
I don't particular agree with this argument.
I find that that argument is the classic “Cynic” argument.
I agree that there is no such thing as 100% self interest because of this. But I do believe there are varying degree’s of selflessness up to 99.9%. So although there isn’t an absolute selfless person, there are several people who are more selfless than selfish.
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
sure
lots of people like doing things for others. it’s not a bad thing like it’s commonly construed, but people don’t do things that won’t make them happy (lots of people get happy from doing nice things for others though, which is still selfless)
WAR... WAR never changes.
I get the feeling Beede had a pretty high opinion of his abilities.
And wanted to be paid to measure. Looking at Anthopoulos’ comments about him not signing, you can read between the lines. Something to the effect of “if a guy thinks he’s a future MVP, who am I to tell him what his future value will be.” See ya kid. Enjoy the hard cap.
AA had a gameplan and had the guts to stick to it. I have no problem with losing Beede. I believe drafting Norris was insurance for AA, he was rated a top 10-15 talent and as long as he signed one of the two it was a measured risk. Getting Comer signed as well makes it even better.
by transmogrifier on Aug 16, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Bible College?
You do realize what sort of school Vanderbilt is, right?
-- Gravity is not just the law, it's also a good idea
I wonder if the strength of the 2010 draft didn't discourage Beede from signing with the Jays
He’d be competing for a pitching rotation spot with a lot of guys. 2010 has McGuire, Woj, Dyson, Syndergaard, Sanchez, Taylor, Nicolino, Murphy, etc. Then there’s Norris, Musgrove, Comer, Stilson, Desclafani, etc. from this year. That also doesn’t account for the guys already in the system like Drabek, Alvarez, Molina, Hutchison, Carreno, Mills. Also Romero, Morrow, Cecil are not old and could be with the Jays for many more years. Finally, there’s the international free agents like Cardona, possibly Osuna and who knows maybe even Darvish.
Would you want to compete with all those arms? Vandy’s a good school for pitchers and even if he doesn’t get drafted as high as this year or for as much money, he probably goes to a team with less pitching depth than the Jays and therefore has a better shot at the Majors where the real money is.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
like this theory
Beede is a masshole wussy who doesn’t believe in himself!
by ayjackson on Aug 16, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I'm just saying, I wouldn't want to compete with all of those arms
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
yeah it's gonna be tough for guys like Comer and Musgrove as well
At least Norris is a lefty, there’s always room for those..
It's easier to get lost in a system that deep though
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
It's just a theory
Maybe the kid is just greedy or scared. At the end of the day none of us know.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I was unimpressed by the starts I saw
I prefer Rasmus
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
If he did, then his make up is questionable. And AA and Tinnish seem to value the 'bulldog' mentality rather highly after skillset.
I doubt that’s the reason, otherwise our scouting department is a failure.
There could be some truth to this....
I know of a kid who was supposed to declare for the draft this year, but did not due to some school issues, and he mentioned the Jays, and I believe the A’s, as teams that he did not want to be drafted by. I thought it sounded weird, but he was apparently intimidated by the depth of those organizations in particular.
by callmejimmykey on Aug 16, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
comparison with other teams
Even more important than the content of our signings is if we gained or lost ground against the Rays, Sox and Yanks. How did they do in their draft haul, compared to us? I had read somewhere Beede was the only 1st rounder that did not sign, but the Rays got all theirs? That would be a blow, wouldn’t it?
Rays got all of their top picks
but a lot of them were overdrafts to save money. The Red Sox got all of their top 4 picks and paid highly for them too. The Yanks didn’t draft until 51st overall and got panned for taking Dante Bichette’s kid.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
the Rays didn't draft on upside as much
as the Jays did. But it’s really hard to get a good feel on how well they did.
Where is my "Rare Candy"?
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
You lied to meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
I will haunt your nightmares.
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
you have to use hypnosis first
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 16, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm going to 'Inception' you Pickachu
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
i was thinking more of a Haunter, or GAStly
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 16, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
GASy sounds about right.
Mr. Ripp is on line Toot.
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
anyone have Kieth Laws breakdown of the jays draft signings? he was supposed to pay
special attention
by icedbecker2007 on Aug 16, 2011 11:49 AM EDT reply actions
Law doubts Beede will do better than what the Jays offered in three years
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
The link (For the Yunel-type readers)
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
Oh Noes you didn't!
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
i thought that too
but then its in english, he just meant lazy.
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 16, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Lazy as in Yunel is!
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
which is an on going joke!
(hope he meant it that way)
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 16, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever his joke my gif makes it funnier
This gif goes to 11…
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
And my power level is
Over 9000!
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
I think that’s the most disappointing thing here.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
What does this even mean?
Rare candy indeed.
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Tyler Beede Clarihew
(assuming “Beede” pronounced like “Biddy”)
“Tyler Beede
may be to greedy
there’s one call you should make:
To Elioupolous, Jake”
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Keith Law has egg on his face again
I don’t know why anyone takes Law’s opinions seriously anymore…he accused AA of breaking MLB’s rules by having a pre-draft deal with Beede…seems like out of a hunch, then tried to say they were blowing smoke to cover it up. If you are going to accuse someone of breaking the rules, at least have some evidence.
ESPN- Worldwide leader of falsely accusing the Jays
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783
Never listen to ESPNBA
It’s just a basketball network, nothing more.
umm
keith law is probably one of the only talent evaluators/analysts who actually cares about the jays.
I demand to be heard.
They're getting some love from Baseball America lately
Not to mention John Sickels and Baseball Prospectus. Law’s not the only one who’s praising their minor league talent.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Don't forget Fangraphs. Marc Hulet is a huge proponent of the Jays' farm talent.
by transmogrifier on Aug 16, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
How many times has he been wrong about the Jays
Starting with the Vernon Wells already made up his to leave the Jays before signing the big contract story.
by Cynical_guy on Aug 16, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Wrong about Jays
The year before Vernon Wells signed his big contract with the Jays, Law wrote a story on how Wells already made up his mind to not sign with the Jays. Wrong.
When we got Yunel, he said he’s a SS with an increasingly limited range. Wrong.
He lambasted the Jays for signing Bautista this summer, saying he has fluke written all over him. Dead Wrong.
And now: Beede has a pre-draft deal. Wrong again Keith.
by Cynical_guy on Aug 16, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
so a guy who writes opinion for a living
has been wrong a couple times? I don’t see a problem here
WAR... WAR never changes.
Some of those are not opinions, they're accusations.
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783
okay fair enough
but the Bautista and Yunel things are opinions. you can have a fair opinion that Yunel isn’t that good (especially given his 2010) or that Bautista was a fluke (given his career). you’re right about the other two though
WAR... WAR never changes.
Being wrong about a opinion isn't a problem to me, but creating a story without proof gets a lot of people upset.
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783
No it wasn't. Sickles though that boston had a predraft deal with Beede and Toronto had one with Gray.
i don’t know how that makes sense, but there you have it.
alright
well goldstein and law both said they heard execs say the jays had a predraft with beede.
I demand to be heard.
seems like some execs have the same reaction to AA’s performance as some relief pitchers (sorry… failed starters) have for Bautista’s performance…
no wonder everybody sees canadian conspirators (in white…) everywhere…
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Maybe they were just surprised that the Jays took someone who was going to be very difficult to sign. Why would they have taken him unless they thought he would sign.
I think it’s called risk management.
You win some (Norris, Comer, etc. all supposedly committed to college) and you lose some (Beede, Chin etc.)
It’s not rocket science. it’s common practice.
Roger Lajoie finds it incomprehensible, but then…
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
by HESS2479 on Aug 16, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
But about the supposed predraft deal
I doubt AA would have picked Beede unless he had an idea that they would accept a deal. Obviously, Beede was a bit more stubborn that AA expected him to be so they didn’t get it done.
Another baseball guru
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Aug 16, 2011 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions
An alleged Beede predraft deal with Boston is interesting.
Have to wonder if these “don’t draft me” statements are a ploy designed to get these guys to a specific team they have a predraft deal with. In his case he is a Boston area guy, you’d have to think they were watching him closely and he’d be very open to signing with them.
No way to prove it if it works and if some other team drafts him the guy has extra leverage to ask for big money or just goes to school. I can see this being like the waiver process in August, teams drafting to block other teams.
Maybe AA was on to it, but of course the mainstream media guys would never accuse the Red Sox of such tactics. Wonder if those anonymous execs Goldstein and Law heard from were from Boston. Or maybe Chicago like the pitchers who saw the man in white?
by transmogrifier on Aug 16, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't have a problem with him writing his opinion
I just don’t see why people put too much stock in his opinion when he has been wrong a lot about the Jays recently.
lol
i’d change my mind too if i was offered $100+ million
and can you give me real quotes for this? I know the beede one, but thats about it
I demand to be heard.
It was actually Kevin Goldstein of BP who first broke the rumours of the predraft agreement,
Law said after that he had heard the same but didn’t want to be the first one to say it
Law talks about Jays in this podcast
here
Rumour was Beede had a predraft deal with someone. When Toronto picked him, people assumed it was with them. No anti-Toronto bias or anything.
Haha, so Beede wants a College World Series, eh?
You know what’s better than a College World Series? A MLB World Series. When he is eligible for the draft in 2014 (if he doesn’t injure himself and screw his career) the Jays will already have won the Series as per their rebuilding. Meanwhile he will be stuck pitching for a last place team. Hope he is happy with his decision to forego 2.5 million and a spot with a soon to be contending team in the Majors…. Meanwhile, we still got Comer and Norris so we’re laughing all the way to the bank baby! GO JAYS GO!
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Aug 16, 2011 12:23 PM EDT reply actions
Hubris -you have a lot of it
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 16, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
There's a Marcus Brutus on line 1; how should I direct his call?
"Upon further evaluation, though, the Blue Jays reversed course. Doctors suggested that the inconsistent workload in the bullpen would increase the chances of McGowan suffering another injury. "
I wanna hear Goldstein on the Fan, but I can’t find the audio..
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 12:32 PM EDT reply actions
Listen live?
Unless you can’t hear that
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783
that's understating it
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
you didn't miss much.
Roger’s been an idiot about it since 9:00AM, and (compared to him) goldstein sounded reasonable.
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Wow. I know you're supposed to cater to listeners
Of all knowledge bases, but Lajoie sounded legitimately clueless about everything. Facepalm +2
by JaysFanExiledinOTT on Aug 16, 2011 6:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Tyler Bede won't get drafted until at least 2014
So good on him, let him get an education and possibly realize that 93 is as hard as he’s ever going to throw.
Yes, seems like he valued an education most of all
Has anyone really got the scoop on why he didnt sign?
If you think about your entire life and the chances of getting to the major leagues…
I respect him for making that choice and although the system would have been better with him there, we take the compensation pick and move on, right?
by LimeyJaysFan on Aug 16, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Perhaps his pre-draft deal with some other team was a lot larger than the Jay’s offer.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 16, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
High-upside HS arms
In the later rounds, Cole Wiper, Aaron Garza, Aaron Nola and Andrew Suarez had the biggest upside, and we didn’t sign any of them, which is my biggest disappointment in this draft.
Disappointed too but not shocked.
Drafted that low it would be tough to convince them to skip college. AA would have to pay well over slot for them, probably close to the money Thon got.
by transmogrifier on Aug 16, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
All true
And none were worth Thon money (or even close), but it remains a disappointment. We get the 22nd pick next year for Beede, which really limits the impact of losing Beede talent-wise. But these guys are gone without future benefit.
I don't view it as a disappointment so much as an expected byproduct of drafting so aggressively.
Some of these high school arms were bound to price themselves out of having a reasonable chance of signing, not that I blame those of them who could legitimately stand to gain in 3 years. The only real head scratcher to me is Beede, I guess he just really, really wanted to go to college.
Anyways, back on point I think the overall talent they were able to successfully acquire speaks well for the drafting strategy, despite the misses. I’m still surprised they got norris to sign, figured he wouldn’t budge from his initial asking price since other teams took it seriously enough for him to drop as far as he did.
That's awesome. What about Wakamatsu Jr?
by BrownMagician on Aug 16, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
If introduced, will hard slotting improve the quality of the 22nd pick?
if all the ‘tough signs’ end up being drafted in the first round… will we not get a Beede level-talent for cheaper if the draft class was similar or a little weaker?
by JaysFanExiledinOTT on Aug 16, 2011 1:19 PM EDT reply actions
That's a good point.
Although I imagine a hard slotting system could also cause the signabiltiy issues of high school players to skyrocket, weakening the overall talent pool of players who can actually be signed. Although maybe not.
Decisive prediction!
well
it just means that they won’t spend 2 months “deciding” which course of action to take; they’ll just look at their slot amount for their draft position and say “no thanks” or “okay” and that gives them 2 extra months of pro development
WAR... WAR never changes.
I'm sure if and when a slot cap system is in place creative agents will find a way around it.
Some kind of bonuses or whatever that don’t count under the slot cap.
You’re right though, until that happens it will likely reduce the number of high school talents that sign. Teams will likely draft the best ones high and save the college grads for later since they won’t have a college alternative anymore.
by transmogrifier on Aug 16, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
MLB contracts?… Maybe we start seeing teams offering/Advisors insisting upon MLB contracts to replace the overslot bonus. I mean they do it now for the top top guys only maybe we start seeing it lower in the draft order.
I think they’d do away with that kind of structure as well. Uniform contract for all draftees with money based on slot.
I found baseball unique
For the fact that the talent had so many variables. It would be weird to see teams sign on “True Talent” levels, especially when they’re so hard to scout as is.
I think Hard Slotting would definitely change the landscape, but I don’t know if it will better it.
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
I'm sort of dissapointed with the final signings because of our draft choices.
We didn’t sign almost anyone we drafted on day 2. I suppose the expectations were very high, because we drafted tons of high upside talent. So that’s where the dissapointment comes from. Other than that, our farm looks to get better in the coming years anyway, with our IFA and UFA. Those were the main difference between AA not signing 20 picks this year and Riccardi not signing 20 in ’09.
I dunno… we got Norris, Dean, Biggs, & Lopes who were all thought to be unlikely to sign. Really my only disappointment from the draft is Beede… other then him AA signed all the guys I really wanted signed.
In reading around it seems people seem to like the Jays' draft even without Beede.
On Minor League Ball the informed opinion has the Jays on the top tier of four teams, with a gap after. Others have a few more teams on the tier but the Jays still there. Signing the remaining guys would have been great but they obviously wanted too much.
Not a surprise but AA had to gamble on their upside and hope to make a reasonable deal like he did with Dean, who nobody thought would sign. Fortunately there appears to be a lot of intriguing players that did sign. I don’t think anyone is looking at these players and saying “WTH?” or “why did we pay him so much?”
Dean was a huge signing, and a steal on top of it. I’ll be interested to see how he, Anderson, Lopes and Smith work out.
by transmogrifier on Aug 16, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely, and again, I wasn't bashing on the FO for not getting these guys signed, but that with so much talent, I had unrealistic expectations that everyone would like to go pro with us.
Obviously, that’s not the case. So what I’m saying is that the draft had amazing potential. Still very good, had a chance to be better. Like #1.
I know what you mean. Jays would have been incredibly deep team had they signed everyone.
They were wicked aggressive in the draft, but no team signs every player and the Jays were certainly not expecting to with their strategy this year.
by transmogrifier on Aug 16, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
hard slotting
Will mean a lot less talent in the draft for a few years. All those high school kids getting big money later in the draft will go off to college and look to be drafted a few years later. However it will also mean teams losing out on players that may decide to pursue other sports such as football or basketball.
If there is hard slotting next year then the Jays will have definitely lost out by not signing Beede this year as the #22 pick next year would be that much worse with many high schoolers not wanting to be drafted.
In the end it will probably make scouting easier as teams wouldn’t focus on certain high school players that are deemed unsignable. You would probably also see teams focus more on Latin America, that is if we don’t see a worldwide draft.
It will mean the same amount of talent in the draft just less HS talent signing. More kids will go to college but all that means is that there will be more elite college players in the drafts.
yes
this is what people have been missing.
There will be a negative supply shock for the 2 or 3 years immediately after the decision, followed by a massive influx of talent for the year or two after that. Subsequently, everything will normalize again, with the only difference being the age of the players being drafted.
"Upon further evaluation, though, the Blue Jays reversed course. Doctors suggested that the inconsistent workload in the bullpen would increase the chances of McGowan suffering another injury. "
We were going to lose out by not signing Beede regardless of whether there is hardslotting or not. The replacement pick next year (if operating under the same rules) will be unprotected meaning that we’ll be drafting that pick on the basis of signability. I’d bet on a college guy with early supp round evaluations.
As an aside I half wonder if the fact that AA didn’t open the bank for Beede means that, at this point in time, he doesn’t think that the league is going to move to a hardslot system? I mean one would think that if he believed that hardslotting was coming that he’d want to exploit the last year that soft-slotting is available.
I believe AA didn't break the bank of beede because he wanted top 10 money, when he was no where near top 10 talent.
A 2.5M $ would have topped all the 11-20 picks bonus. He didn’t want it, which I think personally is idiotic. I don’t care much about Beede though. Like I said, the big arms we picked up on day 2 of the draft not signing was tough to take. But they did have signability concerns, so whatever. We got what we could, the rest went on to collage and some will probably improve their stock.
If he thinks he's top 10 talent, he's dreaming
From the projections I’ve heard, it’s doubtful he’s top 10 in 3 years either. He should have taken the money.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Law doesn't think so either
I don’t think Beede is likely to get much more than that in three years. He’s polished for his age but doesn’t have the huge projection that might push his fastball to the mid-90s and slide him up to the top 2-3 spots in the draft, which is where he’d have to go to justify the decision on financial grounds.
I think that's what I based my comment on
Thanks for the quote. Like Law said, if the fastball doesn’t improve to mid-90s, he’s not going top 10.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Yea to get more than 2.5mil he would need to be a top 10 pick(more near top 5)
but also consider he would be a college pick so he would lose some leverage. I mean for him to get more money he would need to turn into Cole or Hultzen
Total Internet Points: -10001 (Sigh Beede is going to pay for making me lose 10k)
always feels like the have these knee-jerk reactions
this is a good move though
I demand to be heard.
Didn't help my bet last night...
The one I knew was a writeoff when I saw him coming in…
by JaysFanExiledinOTT on Aug 16, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow Miller is DFAd and Rauch is on the DL
though its not much better since its Ledezma and Rommie Lewis up
Total Internet Points: -10001 (Sigh Beede is going to pay for making me lose 10k)
I prefer Rommie Lewis to Rauch or Miller
Agreed on Ledezma though.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Miller is really bad, given the choice between the two, I'll take Lewis
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
You've got to have somebody in the pen
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Yeah, I'll agree with that
I’m just fed up with Rauch. Of course the appendicitis might explain a lot.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Appendicitis
is an issue for at most 48 hours prior to the operation. It may well explain yesterday (though generally if your appendix is on the verge of bursting, you aren’t really in a position to stand up and move, let alone twist your body violently, so maybe not), but nothing more.
"Upon further evaluation, though, the Blue Jays reversed course. Doctors suggested that the inconsistent workload in the bullpen would increase the chances of McGowan suffering another injury. "
Meh, flip a coin on those two… I’d rather have Rauch then either. He’s going through a rough patch right now but he’s still a good pitcher… not as good as Farrell seems to think he is, but I’d call him our third best bullpen guy right now.
I'd rate him behind Frankie Frank, Litsch and Janssen (not in that order)
and I think Perez might be better too.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Take Villanueva off the DL and you might have to bump him down another spot
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
too bad Farquar and Uviedo arent on the 40 man
i would love to see them give a chance
Total Internet Points: -10001 (Sigh Beede is going to pay for making me lose 10k)
more than one kind of bad...
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Rauch apparently got his appendix taken out today..
So thats what they call being shanked in the locker room showers these days…
by WizardofNaz on Aug 16, 2011 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Many of them are, i think
Beede to Vandy, Suarez to Miami, Chin to BC, Garza to Houston, Norwood to Vandy again, Nola to LSU
so most of the HS kids are committed big time college
Total Internet Points: -10001 (Sigh Beede is going to pay for making me lose 10k)
Miller
has sucked all year, including his stint in St. Louis, this isn’t a huge surprise
I like us drafting an 18yr old who can apparently grow a decent playoff beard.
by Parallex on Aug 16, 2011 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
yeah I heard that too. I like him. :D
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
If he didn't sign people would say he sounds like an idiot probably
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783
I'm pretty new to paying attention to
MLB draft, but will any of these last minute signings play this year?
No, it will likely take a couple years
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783
Oh that will likely be next year, or maybe a little bit this year
Thought you meant in the MLB this year
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783
You can go listen to Norris's interview
he said he wont be pitching in games this year and will go to instructional league. I would assume all the pitchers such as Comer and Biggs will do the same. The hitters might get some AB but i doubt it since some earlier signee like Anderson have yet to play so it should be the same for Dean and Lopes.
And there is like 2 weeks left to the minor league season, no point in messing up the rosters
Total Internet Points: -10001 (Sigh Beede is going to pay for making me lose 10k)
I’m pretty sure rosters are locked at this point, they’ll play instructional league in the fall though.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 16, 2011 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
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