4 RBI Each for Aaron Hill and Colby Rasmus: Blue Jays Beat Mariners
by Tom Dakers on Aug 17, 2011 2:05 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Game Recaps
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PrintThat one should have been over after the Jays scored 6 in the first inning but Brad Mills gave back the 6 run lead by the end of the 3rd. Mills had a good first inning, but had troubles in the 2nd and 3rd, giving up 6 hits, 6 earned, 3 walks while getting 3 strikeouts. He could have been helped out if Eric Thames could have caught either of the fly balls hit his way in the 3rd.
Luis Perez gave us 4 good innings of relief, allowing just 1 run. He deserves a lot of credit for stopping the momentum the Mariners had picked up coming back from down 6. Shawn Camp pitched the last 2 innings, giving up just 2 singles, while getting 4 strikeouts.
We got a lot of offense today, 15 hits and 7 walks. Every starter had at least 1 hit. Brett Lawrie had 3 hits and a walk. Eric Thames, Aaron Hill and Jose Bautista all had 2 hits. Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion had 3 walks each. Hill had a 2 run homer in the first and Bautista had a 2 run shot in the 6th, his 35th of the season.
Jays of the Day are Rasmus (.243 WPA), Jose (.237), EE (.186) and Hill (.092). I'm also going to give one to Perez for the 4 strong innings. Suckage numbers go to Mills (-.415).
Brett Lawrie had a nice day with the glove, as well as going 3 for 4 with a walk. He made a couple of really nice plays. I think we can stop worrying about his glove now.
That was one long game, it is even late out here in the west. Tomorrow we have Brandon Morrow (8-7, 4.55) going up against his old team. Blake Beaven (3-3, 3.59) gets the start for the M's.
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Are Mariner fans so few or are they just really reserved? At least on TV it sounded more like a jays home game then an away game.
Seattle has always been that way for the Jays. Lots of fans out west make their way to Seattle to watch the Jays. Add that to Lawrie on the team since he is from that neck of the woods and I can imagine they were pretty vocal.
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Dreamin' of ....
McGowan comes up in September and between then and next spring training he proves he’s “back.”
Then in 2012: Romero, Cecil, Morrow, McGowan, Alvarez. That – Ladies and Gentlemen is an AL East – competitive – starting five. Find a closer – preferably one with a functioning appendix – and viola – with our offense – we gonna’ be contenders!
McGowan's start today in AAA
4 IP,
4H
1BB
3SO
0ER
He threw 57 pitches in the 4 innings and 38 of them were for strikes and also had 6 groundouts to 0 flyouts.
I still think McGowan doesn’t have the durability to be a starter. Why not try him in our closer role for September.
because he has the durability to be a starter.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Because he does not have the durability to be a closer
which is more tough on the arm then having a the regular pitching schedule that starters have.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Also, 4 full days off
Are supposed to help the arm heal better, and prevent a lot of “wear and tear”
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
the whole durability thing is overstated
For any pitcher attempting to return from a torn labrum, the main problem is that they will never recover the strength in the arm sufficiently to be able to regain their velocity and control. After the torn labrum and later torn rotator cuff, Jays coaching staff likely believed a comeback was not likely. When McGowan kept going, they might have thought, “well, maybe he can be useful as a reliever”. Not wanting to discourage a rehabbing player, they’ll make statements like, “the arm doesn’t have the durability to start”. Once they saw that McGowan’s stuff was back, they suddenly realized he can start again, so why waste him in the bullpen. McGowan’s comeback is real, his stuff is back and the shoulder is probably in better shape than most other 29 year old pitchers (thanks to the 3 years of strengthening, rehabbing and lack of wear-and-tear over that time). His ceiling isn’t what it once was, but he can likely be a very good 4 or 5 starter for a few years.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
I really doubt its overstated. If they weren’t worried about his shoulder he would’ve been up in the BP already this year and just stretched him out in the spring next year.
I didn't say there is no concern
just that the shoulder is probably a lot less delicate than what people believe. I also think the velocity on the fastball had more to do with trying to bring him back as a starter than any medical opinion. It was more a case of getting a medical report that supported doing what they wanted to do.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
Torn labrums are interesting
A labrum is an interesting anatomical structure because it has very variable blood supply. Basically the reason meniscus tears take forever to heal is because meniscus has next to no blood supply, same with shoulder labrum.
Therefore, it is really tough to fully assess a labrum tear because sometimes the tear can heal slowly because of slow blood supply, or just the physical shape of the tear. Moreover, McG’s diabetes did not help the healing process at all.
Anyways, the point I’m trying to make is that I agree that he can be for real, and get his pre form back. As long as he continues to do a ton of shoulder strengthening exercises in the offseason, he should have enough support around the shoulder to do well.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
Encarnacion seems like such a different hitter in the 2nd half of the season
He’s not chasing as many bad pitches, and is starting to show some consistency at the plate. He’s impressing me.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Hey Mariners fan here.
Man it’s like you guys are taking over my ballpark. Haha. Passionate fans. I saw tons of BC license plates.
Dustin Ackley, Earl Thomas, Gary Payton
Lawrie's appearance certainly helps
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
BC fans trying to show they'd support a team in Vancouver!
you guys have a great ballpark, by the way
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
So why exactly
Was Litsch written off as a starter and Mills given the chance?
Also: I think Lawrie’s defense is going to be an asset for him.
LItsch is a fine reliever
You knew what you were going to get with Litsch as a starter, the Jays needed to find what they had in Mills. What they have found out is that Mills can’t get it by big league hitters and maybe more importantly is that Litsch is rather effective out of the pen. 6 appearances, 9.5 ip’s and 1 earned run.
It looks like Mills isn’t the answer for the rotation, but Litsch might be an answer for the pen.
by Al Bundy is my hero on Aug 17, 2011 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions
well said
Mills has proven himself in Vegas, he’s getting better every year, and he deserved his shot at the majors again. Even though its still a small sample, it looks like he will more often than not, give up tons of hits. have to figure they keep him until september and then he loses his spot to mcgowan
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think Litsch was written off as a starter
but going forward, there is going to be a lot stiffer competition for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. In all honesty, Litsch is a decent 4th or 5th starter at best. We could have better options in the near future and Litsch is looking awesome out of the pen. I say leave him in the pen succeeding, rather than getting by in the rotation and see what else we’ve got. IMO, the organization does not see Mills as a part of the future rotation either, but he deserved a shot and they want to see what value he might have – either as a place holder, 6th starter (in case of injury) or trade fodder.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
I get this argument
but our big crop of good young pitching is still easily 2 years away. going from start to bullpen is very easy but maybe not the other way around, so leave Litsch in there until the young guys are actually ready
Total Internet points: 10 000
I'd like to see what a 2012 rotation of
Romero, Morrow, Cecil, McGowan and Drabek is capable of. IMO, they all have a higher ceiling than Litsch. I see us acquiring a big arm for 2013 when we are expected to become legitimate contenders, but I’d like to see what those other guys bring first and I’m liking what I see from Litsch out of the pen.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
Drabek's had an awful, awful season
but sure, he has a higher ceiling. I don’t get why Litsch can’t be a 3 win pitcher, but I do get your point
Total Internet points: 10 000
Agreed about Drabek
but too soon to give up on him.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
oh certainly
but Drabek’s far from a sure thing in 2013; and he might actually have things to learn in AAA
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I agree with you on that one too
I’m going for lunch now. Not that I’ve been working. Don’t want to mislead anyone.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
ack!
2013? 2012 for the push to the playoffs!!!!
I would be surprised to see Drabek make the rotation out of spring training next year, but he will certainly be given the opportunity. I think the pitchers that will be fighting it out for the last 2 spots are McGowan, Villaneuva, Drabek, and Litsch, with Alvarez and McGuire being given the outside chance shot. I think this semi extended look at Mills is to see if he should be added into that group, which so far, does not appear to be the case.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
McGuire isn't ready at all
he’ll have one month of AA ball under his belt
Total Internet points: 10 000
He'll be in spring training
but you’re right, he won’t make it. Just thought I would throw him into the list since he will be there.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
two overflows? Tom making up for his abscence?
Any of them worth a reading?
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computers have killed any ability i have had to spell words
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions
It was a pretty decent GDT, I guess, if you wanna take a look.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
not bad not bad
killed a few minutes… now to kill 6 more hours
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Whatcha got in 6 hours bud?
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
quitting time
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Good thing you missed the Mariners scoring 6 runs to tie it.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Aug 17, 2011 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah I know. I’d be dead if I stayed up past midnight two nights in a row.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 17, 2011 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions
For anyone that hasn't. Check out lookout landing, Jeff Sullivan is Gold.
Tonight, the Blue Jays were all “we’re gonna play our game, again.” So then the Mariners were like “fine, we can play your game, again.” Then the Blue Jays were like “no seriously you won’t be able to keep up this time,” and the Mariners were like “watch us” and the Blue Jays were all “you don’t know what you’re getting into, we’re doing this shit to the max.” Then the Mariners were like “whoa whoa settle down” and the Blue Jays were like “warned you!” and the Blue Jays were like “yeah!” and the Blue Jays were like “yeah!” and the Blue Jays were like “suck on that one!” and the Mariners lost. It was all very deserved, and it’s safe to say the message was received. The Mariners should stick to what the Mariners do, and leave the Blue Jaying to the Blue Jays
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2011/8/17/2367939/seattle-mariners-toronto-blue-jays-game-score-news
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 8:28 AM EDT reply actions 8 recs
We need to trade for Sullivan...
Any suggestions?
"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)
Tom and a bag of cheese doodles
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
Best
In the top of the fifth inning, Edwin Encarnacion swung at a Tom Wilhelmsen pitch, let go of his bat, and flung it a good 120 feet or so down the third base line. A few pitches later, he did it again, covering nearly as much distance. “EE!” shrieked all of the terrified fans in the area who also have an appreciation of wordplay.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 17, 2011 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions
jeff is a great wirter and storyteller. I love how he writes.
by Javi3r on Aug 17, 2011 8:39 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
the best on sbnation
sorry tom!
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Brisbee’s Power Rankings are the best.
by leaflover4ever on Aug 17, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
hard to argue that lol
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Sullivan is definitely my favourite
His tweets are amazing. Favourite quote of his recap
The Blue Jays fans in attendance gave a rousing ovation to John McDonald when he pinch-hit in the top of the ninth. They lost their minds when he singled, and they gave him another ovation when he was shortly erased on a force out. When Mike McCoy subsequently pinch-hit, they didn’t make much noise. John McDonald is a utility player with a career 63 OPS+ as a Blue Jay. Mike McCoy is a utility player with a career 63 OPS+ as a Blue Jay. The difference is that McDonald has 456 more games of Blue Jay experience. Keep being pretty bad, McCoy, and in time they will love you.
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
really?
i hated that post. Nobody cheers J-Mac for his batting capabilitles.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I understand that
I liked it because it was funny to see the perception of the other side.
Also, its more ironic than anything else, and I’m pretty sure Jeff knew that.
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
i guess
i don’t like how it makes us look silly for cheering him =P
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Because John McDonald
is a terrible baseball player. Nobody can dispute that.
by Joffrey's Loop Hole on Aug 17, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
he is a terrible hitter
not a terrible player
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
not terrible
but essentially replacement-level
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
His bat is replacement level...
…his defense is elite. Overall, he’s a good player.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 17, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
1.5 career wins isn't "good"
unless you’re thinking “in the grand scheme of people who have every played baseball”
Total Internet points: 10 000
He's a average player
And teammates obviously like him.
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783
an*
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783
Not that I usually put much stock into such things, but it was said that the four leaders in the clubhouse were Romero, Bautista, Hill and MacDonald
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Interestingly,
that’s probably our two best players and our two worst players.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
He's worse than an average player
Hence, he is essentially replacement level. This is not an indictment of Johnny Mac, it’s an honest, dispassionate assessment of the contributions he’s made to helping the Toronto Blue Jays win baseball games.
I’m sure that his smiles/at-bat quotient is very high and I’m not saying that the team shouldn’t have him around, but to say that he’s an average player (let alone a good one!) is not an accurate depiction of his play.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Agreed
You’d have to be a stone golem to not tear up when he hit that home run on fathers day.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
Absolutely, that was awesome.
But it doesn’t mean that he’s necessarily actually making the team win games, which is what good players do.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
He doesn't get enough playing time...
…for the true value of his defense to be measured. In 2007, the only year he played regularly – and even then it was only part of the season – his defense was so good preventing runs that it was the equivalent of having an average SS with a BA of 350. Other than that stint in 2007, he’s never been given the chance to show what he can do every day.
BTW, Baseball reference has his 3.5 career WAR and FG has him at 2.3. Baseball-reference has him at 3.4 WAR in the past 5 seasons, playing only about 20-25% of the time.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 17, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
if you look at players with over 1000 career PAs
McDonald is like the 7th worst offensive player in Major League history
Total Internet points: 10 000
Wasn't he on pace for a gold glove that year?
But didn’t have enough at bats?
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
He doesn't get enough playing time for the true value of his defence to be measured
because the true value of his offence is horrifically bad and makes him a below-average baseball player overall.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
That's certainly true,
though it must not be part of why he’s denied playing time since the team — inexplicably — uses him as a pinch runner
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
His bat is way below replacement-level
his glovework is enough to bring up to replacement-level. As benk points out, being worth 2 wins over a career spanning 2200 plate appearances (roughly 0.6 WAR/ full season) is anything but “overall . . . a good player.”
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
He’s pretty good, but the community over at Lookout Landing are a bunch of anal retentive jerks.
Yes that’s right, I intentionally did NOT use the subject line for this comment.
by shuswapslugger on Aug 17, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I was out last night and saw some of the game elsewhere and heard the rest of it on the radio
If Mills wants to be a ML starter, he’s going to need way better command. He won’t be up long if he doesn’t. On the radio, Zaun said that he’s got similar stuff to Jamie Moyer, but his command is not close to Moyer’s.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Aug 17, 2011 8:36 AM EDT reply actions
not bad, needs remade.
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Over the past 30 days, the AL leader in both wOBA and wRC+
among batters with a minimum of 50 PA’s is?
If you change the minimum to 40 PA’s, he’s now second in both categories.
Who’s the new leader?
Lawrie and Encarnacion
Do I win a toaster?
by Goldenhawk99 on Aug 17, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
You are the winner
An e-toaster is in the mail.
Edwin looks so confident at the plate. Lawrie looks scary.
Any baseball historians remember this?
“Spahn and Sain and pray for rain”?
With the Jays starters, I’ve worked it to “Romero, Cecil and Morrow, then rain the next two tomorrows”.
Sadly, we play in a dome.
by Goldenhawk99 on Aug 17, 2011 9:16 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Exactly why Brad Mills get so many chances?
If it were any other starter (other than Ricky), they would sent him to AAA by now.
Jo Jo Reyes
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I was looking at Mills last few starts, and I remember I posted one in game thread somewhere, it looks like he is giving more runs in less innings every game…
In regards to Litsch, i think he would be a great mid-relieve and why change that? we do need the likes of him and Casey in the bullpen.
your question was answered above
he pitched well in vegas. there are lot of arms coming up, its time to see if he can perform at the mlb level or is he really “a AAAA pitcher”. Odds are he will be passed in the depth charts, even passed over in september, but lets be sure of it.
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions
The point is to find out about the players the Jays have, not necessarily to put the best team on the field (e.g. Jo-Jo Reyes). Litsch is a known quantity, and it’s not clear he should be starting for a contending team. Earlier this year, when Mills was dominating Las Vegas, everyone was clamouring for him to be called up. Well, it’s happened and now we’re seeing why the Jays were reluctant to do so.
this sounds a bit oxymoronic
Litsch is a known quantity, and it’s not clear he should be starting for a contending team.
Do you mean to say it is clear that he should not be starting for a contending team? Because, if that’s not what you mean, how is Litsch “a known quantity”?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Litsch is, at best, a back-of-the-rotation starter (this is what I meant by "a known quantity"). If the Jays hope to contend, ideally they can find 5 starters better than Litsch. They don’t have that now, but I think this is what they are looking for.
by DavidLondon on Aug 17, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Yankees are doing OK
With starters more or less equal to Litsch
this makes me sick
leading the east again… sigh
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
That's because they have a better offence
It makes the difference. The Jays offence is good but not Yankees/Red Sox good so they need to make up the difference in pitching.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
or in offense
why can’t we improve our offense to be at their level? this argument makes no sense. baseball is about run differential. if the most cost-effective method available to improve the Jays’ run differential is by adding offense (Fielder, Pujols, Reyes, Johnson, etc) then we should do it. if the most cost-effective method to do so is by pitching, then we add pitching. I think the lousy market for starters (outside of CC, who isn’t going anywhere) si going to inflate the value of merely decent starters like Edwin Jackson, making the offense route much more cost effective (besides that don’t have to spend money/a pick on a position with a ton of not-that-close organizational depth)
Total Internet points: 10 000
I think the Jays' plan is to improve the pitching
And really, where do you upgrade the offence? CF, RF, 3B, SS, and C are set with Rasmus, Bautista, Lawrie, Escobar and JPA (with D’Arnaud in the near future). That leaves 2B, 1B, LF and DH. EE is making a good case for being the DH and you have Thames/Snider battling it out for the LF spot, best to leave it to one of them. That leaves 1B if you’re not happy with Lind, you have to sign one of the big 1B free agents in Pujols or Fielder. 2B is a black hole that could be upgraded but there’s not a lot out there in free agency. Barring a trade for a 2B or signing Fielder or Pujols, the offence is what it is.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
where do you upgrade the pitching?
we have a ton of guys that are going to be ready in 3 or so years, not going to get a good enough starter to sign for a year or 2.
We need the bat.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
bullpen obviously is where you need upgraded
i meant more starter-wise
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Upgrade the pitching
by improving the defense. We’re getting there, but Gose and Hech would help.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 17, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
where do you upgrade the offense?
first base by upgrading Lind to Fielder (or keeping either Lind or EE as bench bats). you upgrade 2B by signing Kelly Johnson, and that upgrades our offense by about 5-7 wins. that enough?
and I really don’t like the idea of signing Edwin Jackson or CJ Wilson. I can’t see them being very effective in the AL East
Total Internet points: 10 000
to elaborate
Adam Lind has now had one good-enough-for-a-contending-team half-season in the past 2 years. even his aggregate stats this year (wRC+ 107) aren’t really even good enough to start at first, let alone on a contending team. I’d actually be happier with EE starting everyday, given how much he’s outhit Lind
Total Internet points: 10 000
I think you might be right there
EE is looking like a better hitter at this point. I’m afraid 2009 might have been the best in Lind’s career. At the very least Lind is not in the same company as Gonzalez/Teixeira for AL East 1B. I wouldn’t mind the Jays signing Fielder, but it will cost them.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
not in the same company...
the guy’s been worth a win this year. that’s not even starter territory. and yes, free agency is costly but it’s a reliable way to fill holes when you’re ready to compete
Total Internet points: 10 000
I'm not averse to signing Fielder to replace Lind
It would be an upgrade on 1B offence, but I don’t think that’s enough to put the Jays in the playoffs. I think the real difference will come with the pitching though.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
one free agency signing is never enough
in the AL East. but it`s a damn big step
Total Internet points: 10 000
The other trouble with free agents is other teams will be bidding on them too
Just because we want Fielder and Johnson, it doesn’t mean they’ll sign with the Jays.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
but the Sox and Phillies don`t need Fielder
and the Yankees don`t really either. neither team needs a 2B either.
Total Internet points: 10 000
There are other teams too.
The Orioles always seem to have money to throw around and love a quick fix. Texas could use an upgrade at first. St. Louis will do everything they can to retain Pujols and failing that may go for Fielder. Milwaukee will try to keep Fielder. The Cubs will probably be in the hunt. Don’t count out the Red Sox or Yanks either, they could always DH Fielder.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Washington isn't afraid to spend either.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
fielder will get pujols money
and the way st louis is going, they might want to look at saving money to rebuild the team, not re-signing albert
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
They can't afford not to try to re-sign Pujols
He makes them a contender every year and is a fan favourite. They make a lot of money off of Pujols.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
which is why im saying
they do not have the pieces to contend next year, they can’t even do it this year.
They may be looking to form a different plan.
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
The NL central is weak, giving them a good shot at the playoffs
They’ll have Wainwright back next year too. They have the guys for at least one more run and you can bet TLR is making sure that happens.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
odds are TLR is done after this year
they don’t have the guys.
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Carpenter, Wainwright, Garcia is a pretty good starting 3
Holliday and Pujols make a decent offensive core. They have some good players in Molina, Freese, et al. They upgraded their bullpen and Dave Duncan sold his soul to the Devil for the ability to teach any pitcher a sinker. That’s good enough to win the NL central and anything can happen when you get into the playoffs. Just ask the 2010 Giants or the 2006 Cardinals.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
no its not
they would have won this year. They don’t have it. They have a lot of good pitching prospects, but not hitting ones.
They are “contenders” and they still haven’t dfa’d corey patterson.
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
They could win the NL central next year if they re-sign Pujols and Milwaukee loses Fielder
I’m not saying the Cards are a great team, but that they play in a weak division. The Pirates were in 1st place for a few days and the race would be a lot closer if Milwaukee hadn’t won 18 of their last 20.
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5 of those 18 were against STL
or something like that. no?
They still need to make a change in direction, sooner then later
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably, doesn't mean they will though.
TLR holds a lot of influence over that team. They need to get rid of him first.
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Pujols could get $250M
there’s absolutely no chance Fielder gets that money
Total Internet points: 10 000
He's represented by Boras
He’ll probably get at least $200M
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I don't think that's likely at all
Dunn is as good as Fielder was and he got under 60M, though it’s a different scenario there is no chance Fielder gets three times what Dunn got
Total Internet points: 10 000
Was Dunn represented by Boras?
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I don't know but I don't think so
I also think the Boras element is highly overstated; his mediocre clients don’t get crazy sums in FA, only his really good clients who deserve big contracts (surprise surprise)
Total Internet points: 10 000
Fielder is one of those really good clients
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so he's going to get a big contract
a survey of some GMs by SI earlier in the year had results spanning 5 years, 100M and 7 years, 150M. 200M+ I think is completely out of the question
Total Internet points: 10 000
So sign two type A free agents and lose both of our 1st round picks
Plus, Fielder and Johnson won’t come cheap. Free agency is the most inefficient way to improve a team. The pitching is not that far away either. McGuire, Jenkins and Molina are all at AA, which seems to be the last stop before the Jays. Drabek could still bounce back and Alvarez is pitching for the big club now. McGowan’s rehab is going well and he might be in the starter mix next year. Plus Hutchinson is in A+ and could be in AA next year. Add two of those guys to Romero, Morrow, and Cecil and you might have a decent rotation as early as next year. Texas did the same thing this year by going to their young homegrown arms instead of panicking over losing Cliff Lee. It’s working for them.
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that's not how it works, actually
we’d lose our 1st rounder (the non-protected one) and also our 2nd rounder. the marginal cost of signing type As is strictly declining.
Total Internet points: 10 000
and who the hell else is going to play 2B?
Mr. 600 OPS at AA, Adeiny Hechavarria? who’s going to play first, 770 OPS Adam Lind? this team isn’t good enough to compete with these holes in the lineups. I get the pitching pipeline argument, so let’s not add pitching. let’s add offense.
Total Internet points: 10 000
whats johnsons ops
i don’t get the love for him
Total Internet Points: 7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
The only thing I've heard about Johnson
Is that he’s above average and plays 2B.
That’s it. I don’t get it either.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
he was worth 6 wins two years ago
albeit inflated by a high BABIP, but he’s been hurt a lot by a bad BABIP this year despite similar batted ball numbers.
he’s also not Aaron Hill.
Total Internet points: 10 000
He’s an upgrade on Aaron Hill, and probably the only elite-ish option (or possible elite option) out there in FA.
Trade makes more sense to me to fill the 2B hole, if that’s a possibility.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
well there's also
the slide Esco to 2nd (assuming Reyes won’t do it) and put Reyes at SS
Total Internet points: 10 000
I don't think Hech coming up and playing short next year
is that crazy of an idea, though it is still a long shot. I mean, he would have to carry over his current hot-streak (which includes both AAA and AA for the past several weeks) for the rest of the season, including a call-up, but if he can produce with the bat at the same level as Hill has this year at SS with his defence, I think that is a manageable solution (even though that is a huge IF).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
If he can hit as well as Hill, it's an upgrade by improving the middle infield defence
The question is, can Hech hit as well as Hill yet?
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If I was a betting man
I’d say no, but it may be worth a chance at some point next season, if we don’t find a better solution before then.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Check out the fanshot I posted from Griffib
AA says that isn’t the plan.
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841
AA is not going to pubically announce he has given up on a player
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
He doesn't have to publicly announce anything.
He said he wants Hech to play short. He could have said they might move him to second in the minors without saying he gives up on HIll.
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841
Plans have a way of suddenly changing
when reality starts to get in the way.
You can’t have 3 major league players playing 2B, SS, and 2B, with all 3 on the 40-man roster. I f Hech forces their hand, then something will have to give.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
It will have to be a desperate situation with Hill to decide to switch Hech
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841
Well that's happened and what position is Hech playing?
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841
So why isn't he at second if Hill is playing so badly and Hech is gong to take his spot
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841
Hech is supposed to be better at SS than Esco
(better than anyone in the Majors, actually, though I have no idea how to confirm that), so Escobar would probably be the guy to slide over
Total Internet points: 10 000
That seems like a more reasonable solution.
But how is Hech better than anyone in the majors?
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841
that's what Fasano (and maybe AA) said
his glove is supposed to be GG calibre already. not that I know if that’s true…
Total Internet points: 10 000
Other scouts have said it as well
Hech and Iglesias from the Red Sox are supposed to be the best defensive SS in baseball.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
If Esco moved over and Hech came up
Anyone think Hill would sign to be a middle infield backup at a lower price? Probably not eh?
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841
I'd be fine with that
but I’m not really sure he can defend SS or 3B competently. not to mention that McCoy’s career offense is better than Hill’s in 2011
Total Internet points: 10 000
Sigh
It seems like the writings on the wall for Hill and I don’t like it
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841
I like the guy
I don’t like how he’s been playing for 2 years (can you imagine last year saying in 2011 “I wish we had 2010 Hill back”?)
Total Internet points: 10 000
Hill played a decent 3B when he first came up
I think he wasn’t very good at SS, but that’s the position he played in the minors.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
His '06 season at SS wasn't the best
A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841
SS
and they may consider moving Escobar to 2B at some point in the not too distant future.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Is the #22 pick next year for not signing Beede protected?
You’re probably right. Also, if next year is a weaker draft, it may not matter as much anyway.
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the best way to sign FAs, theoretically
is sign a bunch of Type As in one season, lose your, like, 1st to 4th round picks (4th rounders being worth little) and then don’t do it again for a while. signing a Type A every year is very costly
Total Internet points: 10 000
Sort of like the Yanks in '09
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Or sign one and lose another the same year
Sox got 2 first rounders for losing Vmart and Beltre’ (as well as 2 supplementals) and lost their own 1st round pick for signing Crawford. If they had signed another Type A, they would have lost their 2nd round pick. Nice trade off.
It's protected from being used as FA compensation
It’s unprotected in that the player you draft either signs, or you lose the pick.
Agreed that Jackson and Wilson
are not exactly upgrades. I don’t think Kelly Johnson is either. Signing any of those players would jsut be throwing unnecessary money at medium range players. There is a slew of top-tier, established starting pitchers with 3 or more years of control left who could be gotten in a trade because they are going to become too expensive for their current teams. they’ll cost a lot in terms of prospects, but that’s why you build up your farm system.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
You already mentioned the upgrades to the offense
the jays are 4th in the AL in runs scored, as they were the day they traded for Rasmus. Rasmus and Lawrie are the upgrades. 2012 gives the Jays a year (a year in which they will be competitive) to see if those two plus Snider, EE and Arencibia are the answers at their positions.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
but it's not "we're 4th" (we're actually 6th in wOBA)
we’re better than 24 teams, but the teams ahead of us aren’t close to us. we’re 26 points behind the Sox (25 behind the Yankees). we are 26 points ahead of the Pirates, who are 5th-last in the MLB in wOBA. our offense is pretty good, but it’s not elite. stop using rankings to show that we are (lots of people have been doing so)
Total Internet points: 10 000
I think the point is
Run differential is the key. The Jays can either try to increase their scoring or decrease the runs they give up. With scoring, there aren’t as many obvious holes to fill in compared to the start of the season. For example, other than Aaron Hill, the rest of the regulars are either playing very well or are pretty young. The young players should improve with experience (but it’s not certain as Snider has shown) and provide better batting and defense.
On the other hand, there is a definite need for more starting pitching and reliable relievers.
sure
but there are proven elite players available at the positions we do need to fill, and there are multiples to dilute the market, as well as the big spenders not being likely to sign them due to not having holes at those positions
Total Internet points: 10 000
Let's rock a little Spearman rank action
whoo, nonparametric statistics!
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
When you have starters allowing 7 earned runs and still getting the win...
it means the offense is carrying the team. I’d rather not rely on that, especially come playoffs.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
why not
if you have a team that scores 7 runs all the time (plus a great #1 starter which is 50% of what you need in the playoffs) you’re going to win a lot of games, just like if you only gave up 2 runs a game
Total Internet points: 10 000
because that #1 starter can't beat boston!
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather rely on strong pitching than strong offense going into the playoffs
Just a personal thing. You’re going to see aces more often than not in the playoffs. There have been too many times where giant offenses have fallen flat on their face when coming across a strong pitching rotation.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
but Halladay had a crappy start in the playoffs too
aces don’t throw shutouts every time, just like good offenses don’t score 10 runs every time either. run differential my brotha
Total Internet points: 10 000
Fair point
Just in a battle where one side wins 75% of the time, I’ll go with them.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
Just throwing this around
Pitchers have the advantage in the batter-pitcher matchup naturally. A good batter = 30% success (.300), a good pitcher is 75% success rate in getting a batter out.
Could just be a spurious correlation stat, but i’ll go with it.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
There was an article on The Hardball Times website awhile ago that showed what qualities a successful playoff team had
They broke down the batting, pitching and fielding of every world series winner and how they ranked in those areas compared to the rest of the league. I think it showed that you needed to be in the top for at least 2 of the 3 and that it didn’t really matter which 2 they were. Very few WS winners were at the top in all 3 categories IIRC.
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the 2012 jays
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Further, I think the WS winning team only had to be average in the 3rd category
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I remember reading an article about a regression equation that predicted playoff success
I’ll see if my friend can find it again and I’ll post it as a fan shot/reply here. It was a good read.
The wonders of grad school.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
Summary of the results, from what I remember
The main finding was that managers have less than a 2% outcome on the games. Which seems to be true.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
Ok, here's the articles, look like my memory was way off
The main conclusion is pitching and defence are the most important factors, sometimes you can win without good pitching, but it doesn’t happen often, whereas you can win the WS without good hitting about 33% of the time.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/pitching-and-hitting-of-world-series-teams/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-almost-always-wins-championships/
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Although good hitting is still important
Many of the WS winners had both above average pitching and hitting. Who would have guessed that?
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
im confident in romero morrow mcgowan play off rotation
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
not anymore
there’s going to be less days off in the playoffs. You’re gonna need more than 3 starters
I demand to be heard.
Really?
He’s a known quantity as a back-end starter at best? That’s interesting, as he hasn’t pitched a full season since he was Kyle Drabek’s age and held his own (2.6 WAR over 176 ip) in the toughest division in baseball.
At the very least, we should be showing Litsch off to improve his trade value. People said Shaun Marcum wouldn’t hack it as a full-time starter and we turned him into Brett Lawrie.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
you could perhaps argue
that his arm might be safer as a reliever, though. I don’t know if I agree (or if there’s any truth to it, really) but yeah
FWIW, I very much think he should be a starter
Total Internet points: 10 000
It may be the thinking is as follows. We have all heard that it is quite easy to find relievers to fill out the bullpen. However, as we have seen this year, this is not always true. So maybe the Jays have decided that they want to keep Litsch, but that he would be better out of the pen. Maybe he’s the new Scott Downs.
by DavidLondon on Aug 17, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
that's actually a decent comp
but Litsch was as good for longer than Downs was. Litsch will be a very good reliever if the Jays choose to leave him there, but it’s not like the Jays have an overabundance of pitching – hell, we’ve given Brad Mills and Jo-Jo Reyes a combined, like, 15 starts this year, besides promoting a 21 year old fireballer with no third pitch and giving a spot starter (CV) 15 starts.
Total Internet points: 10 000
This
It’s fine to say “Litsch is nothing more than a back-of-the-rotation starter”, but the Jays are currently short two of those guys, and it’s a gamble to say that more than one of their maybes will come through next year.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Aug 17, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
To be honest
I’m perfectly fine with Litsch being the new Downs. He looks comfortable out there, and he’s really effective.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
I'm not denying he's a good reliever, because he is
I just think the Jays are better served by using him as a starter
Total Internet points: 10 000
out of curiousity
how would he look uncomfortable? not being effective?
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
In terms of Bullpen
We will most likely have Litsch, and CV back there for next season, along with Janssen. That gives us 3 very reliable arms. If Frankie can continue his consistency, he’s a reliable arm as well. Luis Perez is a good arm, and any 2 to fill out the rest would make ours a very decent bullpen.
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
Not to mention
Having an effective starting rotation that is able to go 6+ innings consistently.
The year the Jays had an amazing bullpen was also the year the bullpen threw the least innings. Halladay, Burnett, Marcum and McG were all going 7 innings or so. Makes it easy for the dudes.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
The point is that we really don't know how good Litsch can be as a starter
He has a whiff-rate of 9.5% this season. That does include bullpen innings, so it likely reads slightly higher than it should, but there really is no reason to think that his ceiling as a starter is a back-end of the rotation guy.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Edwin since July 7th.....
0.376 (44-117), 5 homers, 17 rbi’s, 12 doubles, 22 walks and 14 strikeouts
Amazing how much hitting can change peoples mind about a player Good job E5
I found a delivery in my flaw
EE already showed his potential in Cincinnati, of course
And we know he hits balls hard like few others can (Bautista being one of course).
It will certainly be interesting to see if EE can keep doing this.
Keep EE as DH for 2012
"I want to set the record straight: I thought the cop was a prostitute."
He was raking in Cincy
I saw him play in his 26 HR year a couple times at Wrigley. Really impressed.
I hope he can keep it up and we can find a spot for him next year. He the only other Jay (besides JBau) in the top 30 in OPS.
In my mind it is a battle between Snider/Thames and maybe Hill to either a lesser contract or someone like Kelly Johnson at 2nd; and last nights lineup will be what we will see everyday next year.
1 veteran SP, and fill in the bullpen internally and with cheap signings, and I think that might be a 92+ win club.
Maybe he can keep it up
He’s had a lot of nagging injuries since his 26 HR year in Cincinatti. It’s tough to get anything going when you’re dealing with that. I was dismissing this as a hot streak (he had a few last year too) but it’ getting to be a little too long to call it a streak.
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Lot less nagging injuries
When you’re a DH, and not diving for balls.
Not having seen the game...
…what exactly was the nature of Thames’ apparent misadventure in left? Bad routes? Simply dropping the ball? I’d like to think he could be at least passable in left, as opposed to a DH in waiting.
two of the former
and one of the latter. and if he can eventually be passable, I hope he starts showing any sort of promise soon. he can catch routine flies no problem, but any difficult play he seems to have no chance on (though he had a nice catch yesterday)
Total Internet points: 10 000
Considering the knock on Thames right from when he came up was “look out for the glove, it’s not good”…I would say I haven’t seen the slightest thing to suggest anything but truth to that statement.
Quite worried about his viability. He’d have to really hit to be a passable DH. I would think he might be worthwhile as a trade chip for a better player.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
yeah
unless he seriously improves his defense – and Snider completely flames out, which I don’t think he will – I can’t see him being anything more than a lefty bench bat (though a good one)
Total Internet points: 10 000
It's why I think Snider is staying
Much better glove than Thames and the ability to hit as well or better.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
oh his hitting potential is much higher
better results at 3 years younger at same age (though who knows if we can put stock into those stats)
Total Internet points: 10 000
just to show
even teams with “closers” blow games in spectacular fashion sometimes: FanGraphs game recaps for August 16th – look at the top game
Total Internet points: 10 000
yesterday was a wacky day all over the MLB
you can’t use that date to show anything!
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
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