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4 RBI Each for Aaron Hill and Colby Rasmus: Blue Jays Beat Mariners

Blue Jays 13 Mariners 7

That one should have been over after the Jays scored 6 in the first inning but Brad Mills gave back the 6 run lead by the end of the 3rd. Mills had a good first inning, but had troubles in the 2nd and 3rd, giving up 6 hits, 6 earned, 3 walks while getting 3 strikeouts. He could have been helped out if Eric Thames could have caught either of the fly balls hit his way in the 3rd. 

Luis Perez gave us 4 good innings of relief, allowing just 1 run. He deserves a lot of credit for stopping the momentum the Mariners had picked up coming back from down 6. Shawn Camp pitched the last 2 innings, giving up just 2 singles, while getting 4 strikeouts. 

We got a lot of offense today, 15 hits and 7 walks. Every starter had at least 1 hit. Brett Lawrie had 3 hits and a walk. Eric Thames, Aaron Hill and Jose Bautista all had 2 hits. Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion had 3 walks each. Hill had a 2 run homer in the first and Bautista had a 2 run shot in the 6th, his 35th of the season. 

Jays of the Day are Rasmus (.243 WPA), Jose (.237), EE (.186) and Hill (.092). I'm also going to give one to Perez for the 4 strong innings. Suckage numbers go to Mills (-.415).

Brett Lawrie had a nice day with the glove, as well as going 3 for 4 with a walk. He made a couple of really nice plays. I think we can stop worrying about his glove now. 

That was one long game, it is even late out here in the west.  Tomorrow  we have Brandon Morrow (8-7, 4.55) going up against his old team. Blake Beaven (3-3, 3.59) gets the start for the M's. 

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Are Mariner fans so few or are they just really reserved? At least on TV it sounded more like a jays home game then an away game.

by Parallex on Aug 17, 2011 2:09 AM EDT reply actions  

Seattle has always been that way for the Jays. Lots of fans out west make their way to Seattle to watch the Jays. Add that to Lawrie on the team since he is from that neck of the woods and I can imagine they were pretty vocal.

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Aug 17, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dreamin' of ....

McGowan comes up in September and between then and next spring training he proves he’s “back.”

Then in 2012: Romero, Cecil, Morrow, McGowan, Alvarez. That – Ladies and Gentlemen is an AL East – competitive – starting five. Find a closer – preferably one with a functioning appendix – and viola – with our offense – we gonna’ be contenders!

by Mylegacy on Aug 17, 2011 2:14 AM EDT reply actions  

McGowan's start today in AAA

4 IP,
4H
1BB
3SO
0ER
He threw 57 pitches in the 4 innings and 38 of them were for strikes and also had 6 groundouts to 0 flyouts.

by Kishan13 on Aug 17, 2011 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

I still think McGowan doesn’t have the durability to be a starter. Why not try him in our closer role for September.

by JujiGatame on Aug 17, 2011 7:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Because he does not have the durability to be a closer

which is more tough on the arm then having a the regular pitching schedule that starters have.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Also, 4 full days off

Are supposed to help the arm heal better, and prevent a lot of “wear and tear”

2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal

by Vagabond13 on Aug 17, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

the whole durability thing is overstated

For any pitcher attempting to return from a torn labrum, the main problem is that they will never recover the strength in the arm sufficiently to be able to regain their velocity and control. After the torn labrum and later torn rotator cuff, Jays coaching staff likely believed a comeback was not likely. When McGowan kept going, they might have thought, “well, maybe he can be useful as a reliever”. Not wanting to discourage a rehabbing player, they’ll make statements like, “the arm doesn’t have the durability to start”. Once they saw that McGowan’s stuff was back, they suddenly realized he can start again, so why waste him in the bullpen. McGowan’s comeback is real, his stuff is back and the shoulder is probably in better shape than most other 29 year old pitchers (thanks to the 3 years of strengthening, rehabbing and lack of wear-and-tear over that time). His ceiling isn’t what it once was, but he can likely be a very good 4 or 5 starter for a few years.

To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong

by TO Steve on Aug 17, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

I really doubt its overstated. If they weren’t worried about his shoulder he would’ve been up in the BP already this year and just stretched him out in the spring next year.

by WizardofNaz on Aug 17, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't say there is no concern

just that the shoulder is probably a lot less delicate than what people believe. I also think the velocity on the fastball had more to do with trying to bring him back as a starter than any medical opinion. It was more a case of getting a medical report that supported doing what they wanted to do.

To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong

by TO Steve on Aug 17, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Torn labrums are interesting

A labrum is an interesting anatomical structure because it has very variable blood supply. Basically the reason meniscus tears take forever to heal is because meniscus has next to no blood supply, same with shoulder labrum.

Therefore, it is really tough to fully assess a labrum tear because sometimes the tear can heal slowly because of slow blood supply, or just the physical shape of the tear. Moreover, McG’s diabetes did not help the healing process at all.

Anyways, the point I’m trying to make is that I agree that he can be for real, and get his pre form back. As long as he continues to do a ton of shoulder strengthening exercises in the offseason, he should have enough support around the shoulder to do well.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Encarnacion seems like such a different hitter in the 2nd half of the season

He’s not chasing as many bad pitches, and is starting to show some consistency at the plate. He’s impressing me.

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Aug 17, 2011 2:27 AM EDT reply actions  

Hey Mariners fan here.

Man it’s like you guys are taking over my ballpark. Haha. Passionate fans. I saw tons of BC license plates.

Dustin Ackley, Earl Thomas, Gary Payton

by DoctaTuck on Aug 17, 2011 2:28 AM EDT reply actions  

Lawrie's appearance certainly helps

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

by Frag on Aug 17, 2011 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

BC fans trying to show they'd support a team in Vancouver!

you guys have a great ballpark, by the way

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

So why exactly

Was Litsch written off as a starter and Mills given the chance?

Also: I think Lawrie’s defense is going to be an asset for him.

by Woodman663 on Aug 17, 2011 5:32 AM EDT reply actions  

LItsch is a fine reliever

You knew what you were going to get with Litsch as a starter, the Jays needed to find what they had in Mills. What they have found out is that Mills can’t get it by big league hitters and maybe more importantly is that Litsch is rather effective out of the pen. 6 appearances, 9.5 ip’s and 1 earned run.

It looks like Mills isn’t the answer for the rotation, but Litsch might be an answer for the pen.

by Al Bundy is my hero on Aug 17, 2011 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

well said

Mills has proven himself in Vegas, he’s getting better every year, and he deserved his shot at the majors again. Even though its still a small sample, it looks like he will more often than not, give up tons of hits. have to figure they keep him until september and then he loses his spot to mcgowan

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think Litsch was written off as a starter

but going forward, there is going to be a lot stiffer competition for the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. In all honesty, Litsch is a decent 4th or 5th starter at best. We could have better options in the near future and Litsch is looking awesome out of the pen. I say leave him in the pen succeeding, rather than getting by in the rotation and see what else we’ve got. IMO, the organization does not see Mills as a part of the future rotation either, but he deserved a shot and they want to see what value he might have – either as a place holder, 6th starter (in case of injury) or trade fodder.

To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong

by TO Steve on Aug 17, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

I get this argument

but our big crop of good young pitching is still easily 2 years away. going from start to bullpen is very easy but maybe not the other way around, so leave Litsch in there until the young guys are actually ready

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'd like to see what a 2012 rotation of

Romero, Morrow, Cecil, McGowan and Drabek is capable of. IMO, they all have a higher ceiling than Litsch. I see us acquiring a big arm for 2013 when we are expected to become legitimate contenders, but I’d like to see what those other guys bring first and I’m liking what I see from Litsch out of the pen.

To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong

by TO Steve on Aug 17, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Drabek's had an awful, awful season

but sure, he has a higher ceiling. I don’t get why Litsch can’t be a 3 win pitcher, but I do get your point

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed about Drabek

but too soon to give up on him.

To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong

by TO Steve on Aug 17, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

oh certainly

but Drabek’s far from a sure thing in 2013; and he might actually have things to learn in AAA

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you on that one too

I’m going for lunch now. Not that I’ve been working. Don’t want to mislead anyone.

To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong

by TO Steve on Aug 17, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

ack!

2013? 2012 for the push to the playoffs!!!!

I would be surprised to see Drabek make the rotation out of spring training next year, but he will certainly be given the opportunity. I think the pitchers that will be fighting it out for the last 2 spots are McGowan, Villaneuva, Drabek, and Litsch, with Alvarez and McGuire being given the outside chance shot. I think this semi extended look at Mills is to see if he should be added into that group, which so far, does not appear to be the case.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

McGuire isn't ready at all

he’ll have one month of AA ball under his belt

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

He'll be in spring training

but you’re right, he won’t make it. Just thought I would throw him into the list since he will be there.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

two overflows? Tom making up for his abscence?

Any of them worth a reading?

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 7:49 AM EDT reply actions  

It was a pretty decent GDT, I guess, if you wanna take a look.

Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.

by Joey Kirby on Aug 17, 2011 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

not bad not bad

killed a few minutes… now to kill 6 more hours

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Whatcha got in 6 hours bud?

Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.

by Joey Kirby on Aug 17, 2011 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

Thank you Blue Jays for scoring six runs in the first inning and allowing me to go to bed early.

by leaflover4ever on Aug 17, 2011 7:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Good thing you missed the Mariners scoring 6 runs to tie it.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Aug 17, 2011 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

yeah I know. I’d be dead if I stayed up past midnight two nights in a row.

by leaflover4ever on Aug 17, 2011 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

We need to trade for Sullivan...

Any suggestions?

"Words ought to be a little wild for they are the assaults of thought on the unthinking." (J.M Keynes)

by HESS2479 on Aug 17, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tom and a bag of cheese doodles

Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?

Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".

I tweet sometimes

by jaysfan100 on Aug 17, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Best
In the top of the fifth inning, Edwin Encarnacion swung at a Tom Wilhelmsen pitch, let go of his bat, and flung it a good 120 feet or so down the third base line. A few pitches later, he did it again, covering nearly as much distance. “EE!” shrieked all of the terrified fans in the area who also have an appreciation of wordplay.

by leaflover4ever on Aug 17, 2011 8:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

the best on sbnation

sorry tom!

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

Brisbee’s Power Rankings are the best.

by leaflover4ever on Aug 17, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sullivan is definitely my favourite

His tweets are amazing. Favourite quote of his recap

The Blue Jays fans in attendance gave a rousing ovation to John McDonald when he pinch-hit in the top of the ninth. They lost their minds when he singled, and they gave him another ovation when he was shortly erased on a force out. When Mike McCoy subsequently pinch-hit, they didn’t make much noise. John McDonald is a utility player with a career 63 OPS+ as a Blue Jay. Mike McCoy is a utility player with a career 63 OPS+ as a Blue Jay. The difference is that McDonald has 456 more games of Blue Jay experience. Keep being pretty bad, McCoy, and in time they will love you.

2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal

by Vagabond13 on Aug 17, 2011 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

really?

i hated that post. Nobody cheers J-Mac for his batting capabilitles.

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

I understand that

I liked it because it was funny to see the perception of the other side.

Also, its more ironic than anything else, and I’m pretty sure Jeff knew that.

2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal

by Vagabond13 on Aug 17, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

i guess

i don’t like how it makes us look silly for cheering him =P

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

Because John McDonald

is a terrible baseball player. Nobody can dispute that.

by Joffrey's Loop Hole on Aug 17, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

he is a terrible hitter

not a terrible player

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

not terrible

but essentially replacement-level

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

His bat is replacement level...

…his defense is elite. Overall, he’s a good player.

Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic

by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 17, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

1.5 career wins isn't "good"

unless you’re thinking “in the grand scheme of people who have every played baseball”

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's a average player

And teammates obviously like him.

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

an*

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .343 HR: 3 RBI: 8 OBP: .378 WPA: 0.783

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not that I usually put much stock into such things, but it was said that the four leaders in the clubhouse were Romero, Bautista, Hill and MacDonald

I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...

by JohnnyG on Aug 17, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Interestingly,

that’s probably our two best players and our two worst players.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's worse than an average player

Hence, he is essentially replacement level. This is not an indictment of Johnny Mac, it’s an honest, dispassionate assessment of the contributions he’s made to helping the Toronto Blue Jays win baseball games.

I’m sure that his smiles/at-bat quotient is very high and I’m not saying that the team shouldn’t have him around, but to say that he’s an average player (let alone a good one!) is not an accurate depiction of his play.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

top-10 career in

weighted Good Guy Moments Created +

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

You’d have to be a stone golem to not tear up when he hit that home run on fathers day.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

That was amazing. I still remember it

by WizardofNaz on Aug 17, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Absolutely, that was awesome.

But it doesn’t mean that he’s necessarily actually making the team win games, which is what good players do.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

He doesn't get enough playing time...

…for the true value of his defense to be measured. In 2007, the only year he played regularly – and even then it was only part of the season – his defense was so good preventing runs that it was the equivalent of having an average SS with a BA of 350. Other than that stint in 2007, he’s never been given the chance to show what he can do every day.

BTW, Baseball reference has his 3.5 career WAR and FG has him at 2.3. Baseball-reference has him at 3.4 WAR in the past 5 seasons, playing only about 20-25% of the time.

Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic

by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 17, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

if you look at players with over 1000 career PAs

McDonald is like the 7th worst offensive player in Major League history

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wasn't he on pace for a gold glove that year?

But didn’t have enough at bats?

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

He doesn't get enough playing time for the true value of his defence to be measured

because the true value of his offence is horrifically bad and makes him a below-average baseball player overall.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's certainly true,

though it must not be part of why he’s denied playing time since the team — inexplicably — uses him as a pinch runner

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

His bat is way below replacement-level

his glovework is enough to bring up to replacement-level. As benk points out, being worth 2 wins over a career spanning 2200 plate appearances (roughly 0.6 WAR/ full season) is anything but “overall . . . a good player.”

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

his glovework is enough to bring up to replacement-level

As long as said glove is not in left field…

by siggian on Aug 17, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’s pretty good, but the community over at Lookout Landing are a bunch of anal retentive jerks.

Yes that’s right, I intentionally did NOT use the subject line for this comment.

by shuswapslugger on Aug 17, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

I was out last night and saw some of the game elsewhere and heard the rest of it on the radio

If Mills wants to be a ML starter, he’s going to need way better command. He won’t be up long if he doesn’t. On the radio, Zaun said that he’s got similar stuff to Jamie Moyer, but his command is not close to Moyer’s.

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Aug 17, 2011 8:36 AM EDT reply actions  

Over the past 30 days, the AL leader in both wOBA and wRC+

among batters with a minimum of 50 PA’s is?
If you change the minimum to 40 PA’s, he’s now second in both categories.
Who’s the new leader?

by JayTeam on Aug 17, 2011 9:07 AM EDT reply actions  

You are the winner

An e-toaster is in the mail.
Edwin looks so confident at the plate. Lawrie looks scary.

by JayTeam on Aug 17, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

just to sweeten the pot

I’ll fax you over one Internet. congrats!

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly why Brad Mills get so many chances?

If it were any other starter (other than Ricky), they would sent him to AAA by now.

by Outz on Aug 17, 2011 9:20 AM EDT reply actions  

I was looking at Mills last few starts, and I remember I posted one in game thread somewhere, it looks like he is giving more runs in less innings every game…

In regards to Litsch, i think he would be a great mid-relieve and why change that? we do need the likes of him and Casey in the bullpen.

by Outz on Aug 17, 2011 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

your question was answered above

he pitched well in vegas. there are lot of arms coming up, its time to see if he can perform at the mlb level or is he really “a AAAA pitcher”. Odds are he will be passed in the depth charts, even passed over in september, but lets be sure of it.

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

My guess

 The team thinks Jesse is getting injured too often as a starter.

by JayTeam on Aug 17, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

The point is to find out about the players the Jays have, not necessarily to put the best team on the field (e.g. Jo-Jo Reyes). Litsch is a known quantity, and it’s not clear he should be starting for a contending team. Earlier this year, when Mills was dominating Las Vegas, everyone was clamouring for him to be called up. Well, it’s happened and now we’re seeing why the Jays were reluctant to do so.

by DavidLondon on Aug 17, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

this sounds a bit oxymoronic
Litsch is a known quantity, and it’s not clear he should be starting for a contending team.

Do you mean to say it is clear that he should not be starting for a contending team? Because, if that’s not what you mean, how is Litsch “a known quantity”?

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Litsch is, at best, a back-of-the-rotation starter (this is what I meant by "a known quantity"). If the Jays hope to contend, ideally they can find 5 starters better than Litsch. They don’t have that now, but I think this is what they are looking for.

by DavidLondon on Aug 17, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yankees are doing OK

With starters more or less equal to Litsch

by JayTeam on Aug 17, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

this makes me sick

leading the east again… sigh

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's because they have a better offence

It makes the difference. The Jays offence is good but not Yankees/Red Sox good so they need to make up the difference in pitching.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

or in offense

why can’t we improve our offense to be at their level? this argument makes no sense. baseball is about run differential. if the most cost-effective method available to improve the Jays’ run differential is by adding offense (Fielder, Pujols, Reyes, Johnson, etc) then we should do it. if the most cost-effective method to do so is by pitching, then we add pitching. I think the lousy market for starters (outside of CC, who isn’t going anywhere) si going to inflate the value of merely decent starters like Edwin Jackson, making the offense route much more cost effective (besides that don’t have to spend money/a pick on a position with a ton of not-that-close organizational depth)

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think the Jays' plan is to improve the pitching

And really, where do you upgrade the offence? CF, RF, 3B, SS, and C are set with Rasmus, Bautista, Lawrie, Escobar and JPA (with D’Arnaud in the near future). That leaves 2B, 1B, LF and DH. EE is making a good case for being the DH and you have Thames/Snider battling it out for the LF spot, best to leave it to one of them. That leaves 1B if you’re not happy with Lind, you have to sign one of the big 1B free agents in Pujols or Fielder. 2B is a black hole that could be upgraded but there’s not a lot out there in free agency. Barring a trade for a 2B or signing Fielder or Pujols, the offence is what it is.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

where do you upgrade the pitching?

we have a ton of guys that are going to be ready in 3 or so years, not going to get a good enough starter to sign for a year or 2.
We need the bat.

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

bullpen obviously is where you need upgraded

i meant more starter-wise

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Upgrade the pitching

by improving the defense. We’re getting there, but Gose and Hech would help.

by JaysSaskatchewan on Aug 17, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

where do you upgrade the offense?

first base by upgrading Lind to Fielder (or keeping either Lind or EE as bench bats). you upgrade 2B by signing Kelly Johnson, and that upgrades our offense by about 5-7 wins. that enough?

and I really don’t like the idea of signing Edwin Jackson or CJ Wilson. I can’t see them being very effective in the AL East

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

to elaborate

Adam Lind has now had one good-enough-for-a-contending-team half-season in the past 2 years. even his aggregate stats this year (wRC+ 107) aren’t really even good enough to start at first, let alone on a contending team. I’d actually be happier with EE starting everyday, given how much he’s outhit Lind

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you might be right there

EE is looking like a better hitter at this point. I’m afraid 2009 might have been the best in Lind’s career. At the very least Lind is not in the same company as Gonzalez/Teixeira for AL East 1B. I wouldn’t mind the Jays signing Fielder, but it will cost them.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

not in the same company...

the guy’s been worth a win this year. that’s not even starter territory. and yes, free agency is costly but it’s a reliable way to fill holes when you’re ready to compete

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not averse to signing Fielder to replace Lind

It would be an upgrade on 1B offence, but I don’t think that’s enough to put the Jays in the playoffs. I think the real difference will come with the pitching though.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

The other trouble with free agents is other teams will be bidding on them too

Just because we want Fielder and Johnson, it doesn’t mean they’ll sign with the Jays.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

but the Sox and Phillies don`t need Fielder

and the Yankees don`t really either. neither team needs a 2B either.

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

There are other teams too.

The Orioles always seem to have money to throw around and love a quick fix. Texas could use an upgrade at first. St. Louis will do everything they can to retain Pujols and failing that may go for Fielder. Milwaukee will try to keep Fielder. The Cubs will probably be in the hunt. Don’t count out the Red Sox or Yanks either, they could always DH Fielder.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

fielder will get pujols money

and the way st louis is going, they might want to look at saving money to rebuild the team, not re-signing albert

Total Internet Points: -7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

They can't afford not to try to re-sign Pujols

He makes them a contender every year and is a fan favourite. They make a lot of money off of Pujols.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

which is why im saying

they do not have the pieces to contend next year, they can’t even do it this year.
They may be looking to form a different plan.

Total Internet Points: -7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

The NL central is weak, giving them a good shot at the playoffs

They’ll have Wainwright back next year too. They have the guys for at least one more run and you can bet TLR is making sure that happens.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

odds are TLR is done after this year

they don’t have the guys.

Total Internet Points: -7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Carpenter, Wainwright, Garcia is a pretty good starting 3

Holliday and Pujols make a decent offensive core. They have some good players in Molina, Freese, et al. They upgraded their bullpen and Dave Duncan sold his soul to the Devil for the ability to teach any pitcher a sinker. That’s good enough to win the NL central and anything can happen when you get into the playoffs. Just ask the 2010 Giants or the 2006 Cardinals.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

no its not

they would have won this year. They don’t have it. They have a lot of good pitching prospects, but not hitting ones.

They are “contenders” and they still haven’t dfa’d corey patterson.

Total Internet Points: -7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

They could win the NL central next year if they re-sign Pujols and Milwaukee loses Fielder

I’m not saying the Cards are a great team, but that they play in a weak division. The Pirates were in 1st place for a few days and the race would be a lot closer if Milwaukee hadn’t won 18 of their last 20.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

5 of those 18 were against STL

or something like that. no?
They still need to make a change in direction, sooner then later

Total Internet Points: -7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Probably, doesn't mean they will though.

TLR holds a lot of influence over that team. They need to get rid of him first.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

The right to do would be rebuild

But I don’t think they will.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pujols could get $250M

there’s absolutely no chance Fielder gets that money

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's represented by Boras

He’ll probably get at least $200M

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think that's likely at all

Dunn is as good as Fielder was and he got under 60M, though it’s a different scenario there is no chance Fielder gets three times what Dunn got

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know but I don't think so

I also think the Boras element is highly overstated; his mediocre clients don’t get crazy sums in FA, only his really good clients who deserve big contracts (surprise surprise)

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

so he's going to get a big contract

a survey of some GMs by SI earlier in the year had results spanning 5 years, 100M and 7 years, 150M. 200M+ I think is completely out of the question

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

So sign two type A free agents and lose both of our 1st round picks

Plus, Fielder and Johnson won’t come cheap. Free agency is the most inefficient way to improve a team. The pitching is not that far away either. McGuire, Jenkins and Molina are all at AA, which seems to be the last stop before the Jays. Drabek could still bounce back and Alvarez is pitching for the big club now. McGowan’s rehab is going well and he might be in the starter mix next year. Plus Hutchinson is in A+ and could be in AA next year. Add two of those guys to Romero, Morrow, and Cecil and you might have a decent rotation as early as next year. Texas did the same thing this year by going to their young homegrown arms instead of panicking over losing Cliff Lee. It’s working for them.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's not how it works, actually

we’d lose our 1st rounder (the non-protected one) and also our 2nd rounder. the marginal cost of signing type As is strictly declining.

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

and who the hell else is going to play 2B?

Mr. 600 OPS at AA, Adeiny Hechavarria? who’s going to play first, 770 OPS Adam Lind? this team isn’t good enough to compete with these holes in the lineups. I get the pitching pipeline argument, so let’s not add pitching. let’s add offense.

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

whats johnsons ops

i don’t get the love for him

Total Internet Points: 7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

706

but it`s deflated by a low BABIP despite good batted ball numbers

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

The only thing I've heard about Johnson

Is that he’s above average and plays 2B.

That’s it. I don’t get it either.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

he was worth 6 wins two years ago

albeit inflated by a high BABIP, but he’s been hurt a lot by a bad BABIP this year despite similar batted ball numbers.

he’s also not Aaron Hill.

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’s an upgrade on Aaron Hill, and probably the only elite-ish option (or possible elite option) out there in FA.

Trade makes more sense to me to fill the 2B hole, if that’s a possibility.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Aug 17, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

well there's also

the slide Esco to 2nd (assuming Reyes won’t do it) and put Reyes at SS

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think Hech coming up and playing short next year

is that crazy of an idea, though it is still a long shot. I mean, he would have to carry over his current hot-streak (which includes both AAA and AA for the past several weeks) for the rest of the season, including a call-up, but if he can produce with the bat at the same level as Hill has this year at SS with his defence, I think that is a manageable solution (even though that is a huge IF).

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

If he can hit as well as Hill, it's an upgrade by improving the middle infield defence

The question is, can Hech hit as well as Hill yet?

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

If I was a betting man

I’d say no, but it may be worth a chance at some point next season, if we don’t find a better solution before then.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Check out the fanshot I posted from Griffib

AA says that isn’t the plan.

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Grffin*

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

He doesn't have to publicly announce anything.

He said he wants Hech to play short. He could have said they might move him to second in the minors without saying he gives up on HIll.

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

Plans have a way of suddenly changing

when reality starts to get in the way.

You can’t have 3 major league players playing 2B, SS, and 2B, with all 3 on the 40-man roster. I f Hech forces their hand, then something will have to give.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

It will have to be a desperate situation with Hill to decide to switch Hech

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well that's happened and what position is Hech playing?

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

shortstop

players can move around the diamond

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

So why isn't he at second if Hill is playing so badly and Hech is gong to take his spot

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hech is supposed to be better at SS than Esco

(better than anyone in the Majors, actually, though I have no idea how to confirm that), so Escobar would probably be the guy to slide over

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

That seems like a more reasonable solution.

But how is Hech better than anyone in the majors?

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's what Fasano (and maybe AA) said

his glove is supposed to be GG calibre already. not that I know if that’s true…

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Other scouts have said it as well

Hech and Iglesias from the Red Sox are supposed to be the best defensive SS in baseball.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Esco moved over and Hech came up

Anyone think Hill would sign to be a middle infield backup at a lower price? Probably not eh?

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd be fine with that

but I’m not really sure he can defend SS or 3B competently. not to mention that McCoy’s career offense is better than Hill’s in 2011

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sigh

It seems like the writings on the wall for Hill and I don’t like it

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like the guy

I don’t like how he’s been playing for 2 years (can you imagine last year saying in 2011 “I wish we had 2010 Hill back”?)

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hill played a decent 3B when he first came up

I think he wasn’t very good at SS, but that’s the position he played in the minors.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

His '06 season at SS wasn't the best

A day that will live in infamy: August 4th, 2011
Brett Lawrie: AVG: .385 HR: 3 RBI: 9 OBP: .429 WPA: 0.841

by jays182 on Aug 17, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

SS

and they may consider moving Escobar to 2B at some point in the not too distant future.

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 17, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

That would be an excellent middle infield

Double play machines!

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is the #22 pick next year for not signing Beede protected?

You’re probably right. Also, if next year is a weaker draft, it may not matter as much anyway.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

the best way to sign FAs, theoretically

is sign a bunch of Type As in one season, lose your, like, 1st to 4th round picks (4th rounders being worth little) and then don’t do it again for a while. signing a Type A every year is very costly

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Or sign one and lose another the same year

Sox got 2 first rounders for losing Vmart and Beltre’ (as well as 2 supplementals) and lost their own 1st round pick for signing Crawford. If they had signed another Type A, they would have lost their 2nd round pick. Nice trade off.

by JayTeam on Aug 17, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's protected from being used as FA compensation

It’s unprotected in that the player you draft either signs, or you lose the pick.

by JayTeam on Aug 17, 2011 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed that Jackson and Wilson

are not exactly upgrades. I don’t think Kelly Johnson is either. Signing any of those players would jsut be throwing unnecessary money at medium range players. There is a slew of top-tier, established starting pitchers with 3 or more years of control left who could be gotten in a trade because they are going to become too expensive for their current teams. they’ll cost a lot in terms of prospects, but that’s why you build up your farm system.

To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong

by TO Steve on Aug 17, 2011 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

You already mentioned the upgrades to the offense

the jays are 4th in the AL in runs scored, as they were the day they traded for Rasmus. Rasmus and Lawrie are the upgrades. 2012 gives the Jays a year (a year in which they will be competitive) to see if those two plus Snider, EE and Arencibia are the answers at their positions.

To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong

by TO Steve on Aug 17, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

but it's not "we're 4th" (we're actually 6th in wOBA)

we’re better than 24 teams, but the teams ahead of us aren’t close to us. we’re 26 points behind the Sox (25 behind the Yankees). we are 26 points ahead of the Pirates, who are 5th-last in the MLB in wOBA. our offense is pretty good, but it’s not elite. stop using rankings to show that we are (lots of people have been doing so)

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think the point is

Run differential is the key. The Jays can either try to increase their scoring or decrease the runs they give up. With scoring, there aren’t as many obvious holes to fill in compared to the start of the season. For example, other than Aaron Hill, the rest of the regulars are either playing very well or are pretty young. The young players should improve with experience (but it’s not certain as Snider has shown) and provide better batting and defense.

On the other hand, there is a definite need for more starting pitching and reliable relievers.

by siggian on Aug 17, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

sure

but there are proven elite players available at the positions we do need to fill, and there are multiples to dilute the market, as well as the big spenders not being likely to sign them due to not having holes at those positions

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Let's rock a little Spearman rank action

whoo, nonparametric statistics!

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

When you have starters allowing 7 earned runs and still getting the win...

it means the offense is carrying the team. I’d rather not rely on that, especially come playoffs.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

why not

if you have a team that scores 7 runs all the time (plus a great #1 starter which is 50% of what you need in the playoffs) you’re going to win a lot of games, just like if you only gave up 2 runs a game

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd rather rely on strong pitching than strong offense going into the playoffs

Just a personal thing. You’re going to see aces more often than not in the playoffs. There have been too many times where giant offenses have fallen flat on their face when coming across a strong pitching rotation.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

but Halladay had a crappy start in the playoffs too

aces don’t throw shutouts every time, just like good offenses don’t score 10 runs every time either. run differential my brotha

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair point

Just in a battle where one side wins 75% of the time, I’ll go with them.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just throwing this around

Pitchers have the advantage in the batter-pitcher matchup naturally. A good batter = 30% success (.300), a good pitcher is 75% success rate in getting a batter out.

Could just be a spurious correlation stat, but i’ll go with it.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

There tends to be more than one out in a game.

by Yort on Aug 17, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

There was an article on The Hardball Times website awhile ago that showed what qualities a successful playoff team had

They broke down the batting, pitching and fielding of every world series winner and how they ranked in those areas compared to the rest of the league. I think it showed that you needed to be in the top for at least 2 of the 3 and that it didn’t really matter which 2 they were. Very few WS winners were at the top in all 3 categories IIRC.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

I remember reading an article about a regression equation that predicted playoff success

I’ll see if my friend can find it again and I’ll post it as a fan shot/reply here. It was a good read.

The wonders of grad school.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Summary of the results, from what I remember

The main finding was that managers have less than a 2% outcome on the games. Which seems to be true.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also, do you have a link to this article?

My google fu is weak.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ok, here's the articles, look like my memory was way off

The main conclusion is pitching and defence are the most important factors, sometimes you can win without good pitching, but it doesn’t happen often, whereas you can win the WS without good hitting about 33% of the time.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/pitching-and-hitting-of-world-series-teams/

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-almost-always-wins-championships/

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Although good hitting is still important

Many of the WS winners had both above average pitching and hitting. Who would have guessed that?

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

not anymore

there’s going to be less days off in the playoffs. You’re gonna need more than 3 starters

by Pikachu on Aug 17, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?

He’s a known quantity as a back-end starter at best? That’s interesting, as he hasn’t pitched a full season since he was Kyle Drabek’s age and held his own (2.6 WAR over 176 ip) in the toughest division in baseball.

At the very least, we should be showing Litsch off to improve his trade value. People said Shaun Marcum wouldn’t hack it as a full-time starter and we turned him into Brett Lawrie.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

you could perhaps argue

that his arm might be safer as a reliever, though. I don’t know if I agree (or if there’s any truth to it, really) but yeah

FWIW, I very much think he should be a starter

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

It may be the thinking is as follows. We have all heard that it is quite easy to find relievers to fill out the bullpen. However, as we have seen this year, this is not always true. So maybe the Jays have decided that they want to keep Litsch, but that he would be better out of the pen. Maybe he’s the new Scott Downs.

by DavidLondon on Aug 17, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

that's actually a decent comp

but Litsch was as good for longer than Downs was. Litsch will be a very good reliever if the Jays choose to leave him there, but it’s not like the Jays have an overabundance of pitching – hell, we’ve given Brad Mills and Jo-Jo Reyes a combined, like, 15 starts this year, besides promoting a 21 year old fireballer with no third pitch and giving a spot starter (CV) 15 starts.

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

This

It’s fine to say “Litsch is nothing more than a back-of-the-rotation starter”, but the Jays are currently short two of those guys, and it’s a gamble to say that more than one of their maybes will come through next year.

I've been looking at the sky

by Back In Black on Aug 17, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

To be honest

I’m perfectly fine with Litsch being the new Downs. He looks comfortable out there, and he’s really effective.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not denying he's a good reliever, because he is

I just think the Jays are better served by using him as a starter

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

out of curiousity

how would he look uncomfortable? not being effective?

Total Internet Points: -7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Meh

Poor choice of words. Comfortable = effective. yes

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

In terms of Bullpen

We will most likely have Litsch, and CV back there for next season, along with Janssen. That gives us 3 very reliable arms. If Frankie can continue his consistency, he’s a reliable arm as well. Luis Perez is a good arm, and any 2 to fill out the rest would make ours a very decent bullpen.

2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal

by Vagabond13 on Aug 17, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not to mention

Having an effective starting rotation that is able to go 6+ innings consistently.

The year the Jays had an amazing bullpen was also the year the bullpen threw the least innings. Halladay, Burnett, Marcum and McG were all going 7 innings or so. Makes it easy for the dudes.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Welp

We still have McG (sorta)

by GettinGiggy on Aug 17, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, screw Burnett anyways.

That guy was a chud.

Can we start the Gose watch yet?

by honours6 on Aug 17, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

The point is that we really don't know how good Litsch can be as a starter

He has a whiff-rate of 9.5% this season. That does include bullpen innings, so it likely reads slightly higher than it should, but there really is no reason to think that his ceiling as a starter is a back-end of the rotation guy.

"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"

by jessef on Aug 17, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mills

is a less talented Barry Zito and I don’t want either of them starting for the Jays.

by Dr.wiggy on Aug 17, 2011 9:28 AM EDT reply actions  

zito has a WS ring tho !! lol

by HabsFanInCalgary! on Aug 17, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

EE already showed his potential in Cincinnati, of course

And we know he hits balls hard like few others can (Bautista being one of course).

It will certainly be interesting to see if EE can keep doing this.

by Woodman663 on Aug 17, 2011 11:05 AM EDT reply actions  

Keep EE as DH for 2012

"I want to set the record straight: I thought the cop was a prostitute."

by McBluejays on Aug 17, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

He was raking in Cincy

I saw him play in his 26 HR year a couple times at Wrigley. Really impressed.

I hope he can keep it up and we can find a spot for him next year. He the only other Jay (besides JBau) in the top 30 in OPS.

In my mind it is a battle between Snider/Thames and maybe Hill to either a lesser contract or someone like Kelly Johnson at 2nd; and last nights lineup will be what we will see everyday next year.

1 veteran SP, and fill in the bullpen internally and with cheap signings, and I think that might be a 92+ win club.

by Rhinos on Aug 17, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe he can keep it up

He’s had a lot of nagging injuries since his 26 HR year in Cincinatti. It’s tough to get anything going when you’re dealing with that. I was dismissing this as a hot streak (he had a few last year too) but it’ getting to be a little too long to call it a streak.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Lot less nagging injuries

When you’re a DH, and not diving for balls.

by JayTeam on Aug 17, 2011 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not having seen the game...

…what exactly was the nature of Thames’ apparent misadventure in left? Bad routes? Simply dropping the ball? I’d like to think he could be at least passable in left, as opposed to a DH in waiting.

by royshowell on Aug 17, 2011 11:52 AM EDT reply actions  

two of the former

and one of the latter. and if he can eventually be passable, I hope he starts showing any sort of promise soon. he can catch routine flies no problem, but any difficult play he seems to have no chance on (though he had a nice catch yesterday)

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Considering the knock on Thames right from when he came up was “look out for the glove, it’s not good”…I would say I haven’t seen the slightest thing to suggest anything but truth to that statement.

Quite worried about his viability. He’d have to really hit to be a passable DH. I would think he might be worthwhile as a trade chip for a better player.

Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

by Jevant on Aug 17, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah

unless he seriously improves his defense – and Snider completely flames out, which I don’t think he will – I can’t see him being anything more than a lefty bench bat (though a good one)

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's why I think Snider is staying

Much better glove than Thames and the ability to hit as well or better.

Hic sunt fortuna dracones

by JaysfanDL on Aug 17, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh his hitting potential is much higher

better results at 3 years younger at same age (though who knows if we can put stock into those stats)

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

just to show

even teams with “closers” blow games in spectacular fashion sometimes: FanGraphs game recaps for August 16th – look at the top game

by benk on Aug 17, 2011 12:47 PM EDT reply actions  

yesterday was a wacky day all over the MLB

you can’t use that date to show anything!

Total Internet Points: -7600

by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 17, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

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