Poll: Trade Romero?
by Pikachu on Aug 19, 2011 12:12 PM EDT
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PrintInteresting discussion on this on one of the threads, so here's a poll.
Romero, in my personal opinion, is at his peak value ERA-wise. Obviously, other GM's will probably look at his DIPS or whatever they use and see that he's overperforming. However, if a GM was willing to give up an elite talent, such as Strasburg, Harper, Trout, etc., do you take it? Obviously, this is all hypothetical. Would love to hear opinions on comments.
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We're in the fine tuning stage preparing to be competitive
Your arguing we should trade our only young proven truly dominant SP, signed to a team friendly contract for a prospect? Maybe if we were in true rebuild, he’d be worth a top 10 prospect + change if we were desperate. As is, no chance, his value is top 50 in MLB and given we are in the building stage we should be looking to add to him in our rotation, not subtracting him for hopeful future gains. We’re not the Marlins.
by TtD on Aug 19, 2011 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
fair enough
but wouldn’t you trade romero for kershaw? strasburg has a very very good chance to be as good as kershaw if not better.
I demand to be heard.
Strasburg isn't Kershaw
Would I trade Romero for Kershaw, maybe, it’d be pretty much a non-purpose trade as you’d be swapping a #1/#2 for a #1/#2 but presumably they’d have a preference in a straight swap.
Strasburg has the same ceiling, if not slightly more than either, but is currently an injury hit prospect who was great in SSS prior to his injury but with far less control and consistancy. You have a legitimate SP with huge value, Strasburg is a lottery ticket. I’d take Romero every single day over Strasburg as is so there is no value to the trade whatsoever.
Would I like Strasburg, yes, but only for a package of prospects or from an area of strength (OF/1B) and why would Washington do that. There is no chance of getting market value going for Strasburg and to even consider offering Romero for him is delusion on a major scale.
by TtD on Aug 19, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
this is the key
potential, not proven
2 years ago? fine
not now, you just don’t trade away the guy you want starting in game #1 for the playoffs
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
if it was proven
you’d never ever be able to get strasburg for romero. thats the whole point of taking risks.
I demand to be heard.
if gose was proven to be able to hit major league pitching
we wouldn’t have gotten him for wallace.
I demand to be heard.
i don't see your point
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
this is how trades work, assuming there's no "intangible" aspect
[talent of proven player A] = [potential of prospect B]*[probability prospect B reaches that potential]
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exactly
and really, i’d say strasburg’s chances of reaching his potential is better than 1/3
I demand to be heard.
But there are other factors
Perhaps that is what you mean by “intangible” aspect, but the primary other factor is current team situation (i.e. competing vs. not competing). The only way a trade of your current #1 pitcher for potentially a better pitcher in the future based on your equation, is if you have so much current depth that it won’t affect you (not the case for the Jays), or you are not in a position to compete (which the Jays are detestably in a position to do next year).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 19, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
then the left side of the equation becomes
[talent of proven player A] + [outside variables], where outside variables can be negative
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Currently Kershaw=Romero>>>>>>Strasburg
Kershaw has a little more potential than Romero but he’s currently doing it in the NL so some scepticism. Strasburg is simply potential and hype at this time, a lot of both for good reason, but still just potential.
by TtD on Aug 19, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
not to underate Kershaw cause he's awesome
but 36 games (6-7 starts) against the Padres (1st in K) and Dbacks(4th in K) help that out Also the top 6 teams in Ks are all in the NL so his K% should be higher.
by Matthew Mueller on Aug 19, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
not only that
but he pitches in some sweet pitcher’s parks. I don’t think he could keep up a .6 HR/9 in the AL East with his middling groundball numbers.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
his HR/fly-rate is league-average on the road
not that he isn’t an excellent pitcher, of course.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I don't see how a player
with major league experience (and a damn good showing at that) is “simply potential and hype”
WAR isn't for children / WAR is nothing's enough
well it's still a trade based on potential
the hype thing oversimplifies things, though, IMO
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He's made 12 MLB starts, then suffered a major breakdown
He could be the 2nd coming of Randy Johnson, he could never regain his control and health and turn into Joel Zumaya. That’s just it, there’s a hige risk along with that upside, you trade an above average talent for such, like a Marcum with only a couple years of control, but trading a top 20 SP for such with control longterm is overly reckless.
by TtD on Aug 19, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
TJ surgery isn't a major breakdown
almost every pitcher has it and then they become just as good as they did before in the vast majority of cases
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almost every
theres still too much risk for a proven guy like ricky
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
yea exactly
i think the problem here is that people are really underestimating how fragile “established” starting pitchers are. even someone like romero probably has a 25% chance of missing a significant part of next season with injury or just generally being ineffective
but really though,
this is the same Wallace-for-Gose situation. The jays traded a major league ready, somewhat low ceilling-ed player for a high-ceiling, high risk player not ready for the majors, and the trade looks good in retrospect, doesn’t it?
I demand to be heard.
No, the Jays traded a player they had cooled on at a position he was locked out
for a player that could be better. Trading Romero would be trading a key MLB piece, a far riskier gamble, as the need for everything to go right is far higher. If Gose collapsed, we’d have lost Lyle Overbay-lite for him. If Strasburg falls apart we’d have given up a top 50 MLB player signed up longterm for nothing, a far greater travesty.
by TtD on Aug 19, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
but the reward is higher
gose isn’t going to be a top 10 MLB position player. Strasburg’s potential is top 3 MLB pitcher.
I demand to be heard.
So your suggesting that when the team is maybe four players away from contention
they should risk it all on a lottery ticket for some perceived future gains. Getting Gose cost us nothing, we did it because he has allstar upside. Trading Romero is basically risking our entire playoff shot on maybe getting a slightly better allstar, without Romero we don’t have a starting rotation even close enough to build into a playoff worthy rotation in the next few years.
It’s basic risk management
Getting Gose cost us maybe at peak a 2WAR 1B, upside is a 5-6WAR centrefielder at maybe a 10% chance
Getting Strasburg would cost us maybe at peak a 6WAR SP, to get a maybe 7-8WAR pitcher at 15% chance.
You’d gamble 5-6 WAR on a 10-15% chance of gaining 2WAR, that is a reckless and stupid trade worthy of a Colleti or Reagins.
four players is a lot more than 0 players
Romero’s not even close to a 6 win pitcher
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and 4 win pitchers
are a lot more common than you’d think (not that they grow on trees obviously)
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I'd argue he has the potential for that upside
He’s currently a 4WAR pitcher and is young enough to refine his pitching further. I’d not be surprised to see him have one or two better seasons closer to 6WAR.
if he was posting ERA that was similar to his peripherals or DIPS, I think the opinions would be different.
I demand to be heard.
a 3.5 RA pitcher who eats tons of innings is valuable
but he’s outperformed them by so much it’s unreasonable
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rec rec rec rec
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Its all been said before
But this is a trade that is dictated by the stage your team is in.
Last year, we were not on the verge of competing, and still needed some blue chip prospects. What happened? Traded our ace away after his trade value was the highest.
This year, we are on the verge of competing, and our farm is overflowing with arms. No point trading an elite major leaguer for something that may be good 2 years down the road.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
by honours6 on Aug 19, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
To add:
The only way you trade Romero at this point is if you get another great MLB pitcher, although I don’t see why 2 teams would exchange great pitchers and that’s it.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
by honours6 on Aug 19, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
really, this is a hypothetical situation
just imagine that both teams agreed on Romero for Strasburg, and its up to you to make the call, do you do it or not?
I demand to be heard.
I'll boil it down to what I think we're looking at.
Romero: Great pitcher, perhaps over performing, 3 successful years in the majors.
Stras: Excellent pitcher, way higher potential but serious injury. Small sample size in the majors, but very successful.
I would make this trade if it wasn’t stras. I’m always uneasy about Tommy John because you never know if he will come back for sure at 100%. His rehab starts are showing he still has it, but I dunno, if his injuries are due to mechanics, what’s saying it won’t happen again?
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
You made the point above
Its trading away a “sure thing” in Romero, (You know what you’re going to get) for a potential elite positional player with a high ceiling.
Of course, you have to take risks to get elite players, but I don’t think I would trade away Romero for a positional player, even of Harper status, when our main need is an ace.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
If you have the chance
to get the best power hitting prospect of the last [some significant amount of time], you kind of have to take it
WAR isn't for children / WAR is nothing's enough
even strasburg
he’s the best pitching prospect in baseball history, and he’s exceeded the hype last season in his MLB tenure
I demand to be heard.
the problem with this is that
there’s no such thing as a “sure thing” with pitchers! i mean maybe halladay, but pitchers are so volatile that even established ones have a large chance of significantly regressing or getting injured. wainwright was equally if not more established than romero, and then look what happened to him out of the blue. for every halladay/sabathia, there’s 10 wainwrights.
Romero is a great pitcher, but his potential is not the best in the major leagues
strasburg is not yet a great pitcher, but his potential is #1 in the majors.
I demand to be heard.
ok i have a question
Switch sides, you are the nationals, do you trade strasburg for romero?
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
this isn’t about romero-strasburg. This is about selling a player at his peak value for a better, yet unproven talent.
I demand to be heard.
no its about
why would the other team trade potential for a proven talent.
Oh yeah, to win the world series
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
the cards traded potential for a proven talent
and we’re happy with the trade.
I demand to be heard.
colby is far from proven
apples and oranges
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
ugh that was not what i wanted to say
Scrabble and Dotel and edwin jackson
are not worth Ricky Romero
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Colby isn’t worth Strasburg either.
Look, this is just a hypothetical question. comparing it to what really happened doesn’t work.
I demand to be heard.
and its so bizzare you can't really argue it
nobody would trade a future “top 3 player” in the mlb for a proven ace.
Only reason they would? to get the final piece to make the playoffs and win the world series.
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
which, is what we want to do.
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
rasmus trade is a bad comparision
cards were in a playoff race and there best player is a FA next year. nationals are nowhere near contention and have a lot of young controllable talent.
by Matthew Mueller on Aug 19, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope
You have a player at the peak of his value, but also on year 2 of an especially friendly four year contract who is proven in the AL East, makes a ton of starts, and has improved year by year. I don’t move that for a hypothetically better player, especially considering the Jays are looking to compete in 2012.
In fact, I think if the Jays are going to win next year, we need Romero and another SP in the rotation. I think Kershaw’s got great stuff, and so does Strasburg, but they’re both NL pitchers. I’ll take a guy that I think is just as good but also pitches in the AL East instead.
by dexfarkin on Aug 19, 2011 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
shrug Let Kershaw pitch regularly in the AL East. I know that Ricky can dominate the Yankees and Red Sox lineups at home and on the road with his stuff. Considering contention in 2012 is directly through those teams, why do I give up my already excellent, cost controlled ace for an x factor?
How is he against the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox? I’m not arguing that he’s not a very good pitcher. My point is that being that good as an LA Dodger isn’t automatically the same as being that good as a Toronto Blue Jay. No one can say how Kershaw will perform in the environments and against the lineups in the AL East consistently. And an awful lot of very good NL pitchers have been ground into hamburger by moving into this division. Where as with Romero, we have a pretty good idea what he’ll give us in a season. and we control him through 2016.
by dexfarkin on Aug 19, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
plus the more or less free out in the NL
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you're greatly underrating just how awesome Kershaw is and will continue to be
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and i think anyone who wants to trade ricky for prospects
is underrating how valueable he is to this team
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
No to THIS TEAM
in the current state of this team , we need him more then a future unproven prospect.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
he's not worth more to this team than another team
he’s worth 4 wins above replacement to a baseball team
Total Internet points: 10 000
No
there is a reason why teams who are in contention trade away prospects to get mlb talent.
And there’s also a reason why contending teams don’t trade key pieces for future talent.
We want to win, we need romero, or someone equivalent now, not in 4 years.
Total Internet Points: -7600
by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
strasburg would never get traded to toronto
but we aren’t looking at the technicalities are we? its all hypothetical
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Either way
There is no way i would even pick up the phone if anyone was going to say “hey want ricky for prospects”
There is 0 chance anyone could provide a reasonable argument to change that
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
i didnt say he was in general
i said for prospects he is
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
but that's much more insane than trading Romero
Harper and Strasburg? two guys with the potential to be the two best players in baseball?
obviously you wouldn’t get those two for Romero, but since there exists a package that would make it worth it, there exists a realistic package that makes it worth it for the Jays as well
Total Internet points: 10 000
Is he? Lots of examples of guys who went from being worth 5+ WAR in the NL to being worth under 2 in one year by switching to an AL team.
by dexfarkin on Aug 19, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Absolutely
So when we talk about a trade of Romero and Kershaw, you can’t state unequivically that Kershaw will automatically be a better pitcher for Toronto than Romero.
even if you add .5 to his FIP and xFIP, which is a lot
he’s still alot better than Romero, and younger.
I demand to be heard.
Except it doesn’t really work like that. As for Kershaw, we’d only have three years of arbitration. So there’s no guarantee he’d stay beyond that, that the Jays could sign him to a deal, or that his arb numbers wouldn’t end up through the roof. So him being young really only matters if we can lock him up long term. Another X factor.
We have, right now, Romero cost controlled through to the end of the 2016 season if we want him.
by dexfarkin on Aug 19, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
really, I'd take Kershaw for 12~15 million per
than romero for 5~8 million per
I demand to be heard.
and I didn't say we should
I just asked if it would be crazy or not. I was sure the reaction would be this way (and I should also note that he’s my favourite player, and I have his jersey)
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i didn't direct just at you
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 19, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
He's probably a top 10 SP for the next six years, would that be a fair assessment?
Beyond that he could be just as good but odds are he was slip a little. Romero is probably closer to a top 20 SP for the next 4-5 years. In a straight swap I think most people would take Kershaw, unless there is some noted issue we don’t know about.
I’d have Strasburg as currently top 40 with top 5 potential if he stays healthy and improves the control slightly.
there's a huge difference between top-10 and top-20 though
top 10 pitchers (which I think still underrates Kershaw but whatever) are 6-7 win pitchers. top-20 are 4, 4.5 type guys
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10th best pitcher in the Majors in fWAR is 4.6 (Matt Cain)
20th best is 3.5 (David Price). Kershaw is 4th in MLB at 5.3
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Possibly. And if you offered this deal to me in a fastasy league, I’d take it and laugh all the way to the bank.
But, in looking at things in the context of competing from 2012 and on, Romero is cost controled through 2016, has a proven record of success and improvement since making the rotation, and is doing it against the elite lineups in baseball. Kershaw might be a 2-3 game improvement, or he could hit Yankee Stadium for the first time and come apart at the seams. So, in my mind, I don’t want to risk a sure thing for a possibly better – possibly not thing when I’m making a run. Last year or two years ago, absolutely.
he has one start against the yankees
7 IP 2 ER 4 H 0 BB 5 K.
career against +.500 teams:
377 IP 118 ER 286 H 147 BB 403 K
thats a 2.82 ERA, btw.
I demand to be heard.
Exactly
Put Kershaw in Romero’s position and watch how he does against the best offences in baseball in little league-sized stadiums. Put Romero in Kershaw’s position and he would dominate the AL West no doubt. Look at how well Roy Halladay did after he got away from the AL East.
Marcum's doing worse this year than last year
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
although
his FIP and tRA are slightly better than 2010, and he’s been remarkably consistent across his considerable arsenal, with each of his 5 pitches having positive value this season. I agree he hasn’t seen a jump in his numbers since moving to the NL, but: 1) given what he has done it wouldn’t surprise me to see him put together a great stretch run; and 2) I wouldn’t underestimate the need to adjust to a league of new hitters. I’d think a pitcher like Marcum would benefit more from having seen hitters before than, say, a power pitcher, and so it wouldn’t shock me to see him improve as he becomes more experienced with the league.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
I'm not surprised that people don't want to trade Romero away
I’m more surprised that they don’t want to trade him for Strasburg, when its possible to get a talent similar to or slightly worse than Romero on the FA.
I demand to be heard.
The issue is that it would be similar or slightly worse
at probably twice the cost and a greater age. Whose available this year in that ballpark, Kuroda, Jackson and Wilson, maybe a couple others if team options are turned down? All are far older, Kuroda isn’t moving from the West Coast supposedly so he may be off the table. It’s really not that easy.
by TtD on Aug 19, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I'd take Jackson, take the slighly worse performance for about 5 million more
and laugh all the way to the bank as Strasburg strikes everybody out.
I demand to be heard.
Not Really
It’s an argument between hypothetical value and proven value. With the Jays going into 2012 intending to compete, you can reasonably assume Romero will give you 12-15 wins at the top of the rotation. Strasburg or Kershaw might give you more. Or they might not. So there’s an x factor there.
But, but but
Buck says their important, so they must be.
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
Dunno. I’ve always been of the opinion that team wins have something to do with getting into the playoffs.
they're an unbelievably horrible measure of a pitcher's success
like, horrible. would you measure how good a shortstop is by team wins in games he starts?
Total Internet points: 10 000
Have to agree with Benk here
It’s not really a good way to assess value, even ERA is a little shaky as team defense can really affect it. It’s easier to look at the stats that make up the results (K%, BB%, etc…) and the stats that try to phase out team defense like FIP.
BtB did an interesting study on defensive effect on ERA just this week
Would be worth a look.
I don't just mean defense, also luck and small sample effect
but I will check it out, thanks
Total Internet points: 10 000
I never said that they were a measure of a pitcher’s success. Although it’s fun that the second you use the word ‘win’ in any context, there’s a Pavlovian reaction by anyone who prides themselves as a statistics person.
The team has won 12+ behind Romero every year he’s been here. Would x or y player be better? Maybe. But Romero’s numbers and his history suggest that the team’s success during his starts are not the product of luck or statistical outliers. So you have a relatively proven value (Romero’s statistical numbers versus the league that we need to beat to reach the playoffs) that has led to a consistant team outcome which directly impacts our ability to compete effectively.
by dexfarkin on Aug 19, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Romero's a good pitcher
pitcher wins don’t do a good job of indicating that
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team wins is fine
team wins is what you get to the playoffs. its when you start putting pitchers and team wins together that it falls apart.
I demand to be heard.
I didn’t say Romero’s 12+ wins a year indicates automatically he’s a good pitcher. What I did say is that his stats, especially in a schedule weighted against the teams we need to beat to make the playoffs, suggest that the team can reasonably expect to convert that number of wins from his starts.
we made a similar deal with Wallace and Gose
gave up a proven quantity for an unknown talent. And no, Wallace wasn’t worth nothing. He’s a 2~3 WAR player.
I demand to be heard.
Apples and oranges. The Jays soured on Wallace’s potential and flipped him for a guy with a higher upside according to their scouts.
All of the articles that I read had the team looking at his performance in AAA and deciding that he wasn’t going to be the elite firstbaseman that they were hoping for. And when a guy they wanted came up for that price, it was one they were happy to pay.
he wasn't ever going to be an elite 1st basemen
he had contact, and he had a good eye, but no power and defence. He was a poor man’s Lyle overbay.
I demand to be heard.
Wasn't he heralded as the 1B of the Jays future before they got him?
I figure he would have been an upper echelon if not elite 1B. He was the 2nd highest prospect in the system.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
not really
he had had a good Minor League career but didn’t hit great at AAA while old for the level. scouts said his swing was unfixable (something about a big bum) too
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he had a good hitting tool
scouts thought, and maybe still think he can hit .300. He doesn’t have much power, but could develop into a 20~25 HR hitter. Weak defence. Thats a good 1B, but not elite, mold of Overbay.
I demand to be heard.
in the right park, with some luck on balls in play
that kind of player can put up a great looking season or two, but that’s about it.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
He's actually been worth -0.1fWAR this season
So below replacement level. At his peak he may make league average at 1B if not slightly below.
The adjustment for 1B is pretty harsh
he’d have to improve significantly to hit that. Adam Lind for instance has only been worth 1fWAR this season, Wallace would have to drastically improve his power and average to reach that stage, as he has poor defense and can’t get there the way say Barton did last year. I honestly don’t see Wallace ever getting higher than 2fWAR with his current skillset, he’d have to considerably rework his swing.
Lind isn't good though
Wallace might not ever be more than a 2 win guy, you’re right. but you really just have to stick around long enough to have a lucky BABIP season to have a 3 win year
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Honest query
Do you see the Astros sticking with him that long? It’s not as if his D is forcing them to let him work it out.
I have no idea really
I don’t know that much about the guy. besides the fact that the Astros are terrible
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You just mentioned Carlos Lee
He’s still there in Houston
oh yeah, pardon
he counts more as an OF. twice as many innings in the OF compared to 1B
I demand to be heard.
Lind isn't bad
if you adjust his BABIP to league average (more than reasonable given his 23.3% line drive ratee this season), his numbers look fine.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
1st basemen on pace for 2 WAR or above this season
Carlos Lee, Mark Trumbo, Gaby Sanchez
I demand to be heard.
Trumbo kind of an odd one there, he's a potential AL RoY winner
He’s been pretty handy this year defensively and that has him above 2
Lee is doing it on the back of an unrealistically high defensive rating, i’d be amazed if he slips over 2 fWAR come season end.
Sanchez is the model for slightly above average 1B, just enough offense, average or just above D. He’s solid but not really someone you build around.
All three have superior D to Wallace and that is sneaking them over 2fWAR.
And just before anyone says anything
No Trumbo shouldn’t be RoY, but he’s been solid enough to get the press.
you can't rely on year by year defence
last season, wallace D was rated plus by both UZR, DRS or any other metric.
and really, I have doubts that Wallce won’t be able to hit as well as Sanchez is right now. Its really kinda meh.
I demand to be heard.
a few things here
first, no one should ever be untouchable. Romero is pretty much my favourite Jay and I would be crushed if he was moved, but the team has to be able to move any asset if it improves its chances of winning.
Second, Romero may be at his peak value, but not necessarily. He has improved every season he’s been in the big leagues and doesn’t turn 27 until November. Sure, he may be overperforming his peripherals this season, but who is to say he won’t continue to improve.
third, it’s hard, though not impossible, to imagine the Jays trading Romero away and getting commensurate value. If Marcum brought back Lawrie, Romero (who is younger, better, lefthanded, and signed to an affordable deal) will need to bring back more, and deals like that are pretty tough to come by.
fourth, I’d be a little wary of trading away my workhorse ace (210 innings last season and on pace to beat that in 2011) for a very young pitcher, particularly one from the NL. Sure, their relative youth is an advantage, but durability is important, too, the Jays bullpen hasn’t exactly been steady, and it’s nice to be able to pencil someone in for 200 innings and not have to hold your breath about injury. Kershaw, who was mentioned, has actually been quite the workhorse himself, but he’s piling up a lot of innings before 25 and I’d be a bit concerned. And the adjustment from the NL could be something of an issue even for an elite pitcher.
Bottom line, Romero is a terrific asset but if you have the opportunity to acquire an elite, mlb-ready talent, you’d have to very strongly consider it. Deals like that don’t seem very common, though, particularly for teams that are trying to move toward contention.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
by hugo on Aug 19, 2011 2:34 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
thanks for the thought
yeah, this is almost completely hypothetical, kind of a crowdsourcing i guess.
I demand to be heard.
hey look everyone, it's hugo!
but thanks for the input, I agree with most of what you said
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haha, i had a spare minute, for once.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
When we're at it
Would you trade Rasmus + B pitching prospect for Trout.
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
colby is a great talent himself
- (?) top prospect? I think? But If I can get similar/better talent that is younger and cheaper, I’d do that trade. The B+ prospect shouldn’t be a blue-chip though.
I demand to be heard.
I probably wouldn't
But would think hard about it, because of the reasons Pikachu gives. Basically, next year if we do fill a couple holes, then I think the team has a shot at competing for a wild card spot (especially if there are 2). I think the team has a better chance at competing for that with Rasmus then it does with Trout. Also, the team has good depth in terms of prospect potential in the outfield, so if I were to make a trade for future potential with MLB talent, I would be focusing on areas of weakness (the infield specifically).
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Aug 19, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
it's not a fair trade
but it’s interesting from our perspective, if it was offered
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I'm surprised 12 people said yes
i was expecting less
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
Pretty much agree with everything that Hugo said
But I want to add that Romero is signed to a 6million a year contract for the next several years while he’s performing like a top 20 SP. You don’t grow that kind of talent with cheap team control on trees. Sure Kershaw is probably better than Romero and Strasburg has potential to be much better than Romero but Kershaw will also cost more and Strasburg could easily wipe out after his TJ surgery not to mention the transition from NL to AL.
Additionally, facing the Yankees, Red Sox and even the Rays with their pesky running game isn’t that easy. Two of those teams are pretty much playoff bound every year and the other team could easily be in contention for a playoff spot in any other division. What other combination of teams in the same division could be said of the teams that Strasburg and Kershaw could face?
Lastly, Romero is indeed outperforming his perips by quite a bit but as Hugo summarized, he could still be improving as this is only his third season in the majors. Who’s to say he won’t be as good as Kershaw in the future and while it’s nice to get a player of better potential for Romero in exchange, being able to provide that workhorse mentality at the top of the rotation is definitely more valuable to this team, a potential playoff team in 2012 or 2013 than someone even as good as Strasburg showing flashes of Halladay-esque potential
i personally believe strasburg will be better than romero as soon as 2013 comes around
but thats just me being his fanboy
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
You should not make arguments about WAR unless you use both forms of WAR
Fangraphs has Romero’s WAR at 2.7 (36 overall) and Kershaw’s WAR at 5.3 (4th overall).
Baseball Reference has Romero’s and Kershaw’s WAR at 5.1 (T-5th overall)
Personally I prefer Baseball References’ WAR to Fangraph’s WAR because Fangraphs is based on FIP which only in account strikeouts, walks, and homeruns. (If Morrow has a higher WAR than Romero, it doesn’t pass the eye test.)
by Matthew Mueller on Aug 19, 2011 5:29 PM EDT reply actions
Reference uses RA
seriously, thats not a good way to judge pitchers. If you don’t like WAR/FIP, use SIERA. its probably the most effective way to judge pitcher performance and future projections
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
I think it's fine for in-season and "this is what he did" analysis
but it’s not good at predicting future performance, which is exactly what we’re trying to do in figuring trade scenarios
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i guess
I still don’t like how it inputs defence. I don’t like FIP based WAR that much either. I’d rather SIERA. Is FIP better than SIERA for past performances?
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
I don't get using FIP much really
xFIP or SIERA makes a lot more sense to me
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but like you said
FIP describes what happened, and xFIP is for what should have happened. I think I heard SIERA as better for projection, but I’m not sure.
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
ehh
I dunno, I don’t see the point in FIP over RA for “what happened” and I also don’t see the point in FIP over xFIP/SIERA over “what should have”
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but RA is still pitching + defence
I still think FIP is better, at least its all pitching (almost)
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Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
I guess that's fair
but I like that rWAR is just “this is how good this pitcher was at allowing runs and throwing lots of innings” – whereas you can then use fWAR (if it was xFIP based) to say “in the long run if he keeps up these numbers he will be [this] good”
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it doesn’t have anyway add up hits or hard contact. Some pitchers pitch to contact so they can go deeper in games. FIP shouldn’t penalize them
by Matthew Mueller on Aug 19, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
it does
but then WAR counts innings pitched, so whats the problem?
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
rWAR penalizes pitchers for his defence
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
how does morrow having a better WAR than romero not pass the eye test?
because of his ERA?
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
because Romero’s starts last longer on average and he gives up fewer baserunners and fewer runs
by Matthew Mueller on Aug 19, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
because he has a ridiculously low batting average on balls in play
and an unsustainable left-on-base percentage
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
If his lob% and low babip lasts for a whole year
Maybe it’s possibility sustainable?
Also, it’s not like people are hitting line drives off him, from the comments I’ve seen from other blogs and from what I can tell on tv, there’s lots of weak groundouts and popups induced. He’s probably not overperforming his stats by that much
you're right, his LD rate is the lowest in the majors,
but pitchers usually can’t control their own LD rate. And other extreme groundballers seem to have BABIP similar to the average pitcher.
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
and i do believe that GB's tend to have higher babip than the average pitcher
because of the BABIP of GB being higher. I could be talking out of my ass though.
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
that is correct
but good GB pitchers can get “better” ground balls than fly ballers (IE, have lower BABIPs on GBs) but not by a tremendous margin
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maybe he could be the next tim hudson
I don’t know. I do think that this is the best he’s going to get in terms of ERA
I Demand To Be Heard.
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
so maybe it just means the defense has played better in his starts
or the opposing hitters have been worse/were playing worse at the time
or just plain old luck (ie the difference between the line drive right into a fielder’s glove and the line drive just out of his range)
just because a pitcher gives up few runs in a game does not mean he pitched well. all it means is some combination of: the pitcher pitched well, the hitters hit poorly, the fielders fielded well, and the pitching team got good luck. it’s very hard to figure out how to divide it up properly. ERA doesn’t try to control for anything, FIP controls for all fielding, some of how the opposing hitters did, and some of the luck, xFIP controls for all fielding, a lot of how the opposing hitters did, and some of the luck, etc,
Crazy
This is my first post on this site and I’m very pleased to have found a place were the people seem to be extremely knowledgeable regarding baseball. Now to the question, for me personally there are only 2 pitchers in the bigs I would trade Romero for, when you take age, salery and controllability in to consideration. They are Lincecum and Kershaw. When it comes to prospects there are two as well, Strasburg and Harper. Of course there is some risk involved in trading him for a prospect whom has already had major injury problems but IMO Strasburg ceiling is just way to high to pass up. Now of course I know that Washington will never trade either of them. So yes hypothetically I would trade Romaro, but it reality no. Because I’m not going to get what I want for him. Relize you guys talked about this all before but I have been waiting 36hrs to post my response to the question lol. Cheers
Syndergaard>Clemons
welcome
I’d be hesitant to trade Romero for Kershaw or Lincecum. As good as those pitchers are, absolutely dominating the NL West is different from absolutely dominating the AL East. That’s not to say they wouldn’t continue to be excellent pitchers, of course, and I’d think they’d likely continue to pitch even better than Romero.
However, Lincecum was paid 13 M this season and will be making a lot more than that next season, his last season of team control. Kershaw’s arbitration award (assuming that he has to go to arbitration) is really up in the air, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he got something like what Lincecum has made the past couple seasons (about 12M), with salary increases to 15M and 18M over the next few years.
The $-value difference between Kershaw and Romero over the next three seasons ends up being over $20M, which could be used to lock up some players currently on the team to team friendly deals, like Romero’s or sure up some holes via free agency.
For what it’s worth, fangraphs trade value rankings have Kershaw at #11, Lincecum at #33, and Romero at #36, so your position may be better-supported than mine.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Thank you for the welcome
I have to disagree with you thu. I think both of them would have no problem moving to the AL East. There demeanor and presence on the mound was built for the East. Concerning there contracts, I think we could easily absorb the difference and still have more then enough room to extend our young guys and sign another starter and 2nd baseman. Rogers has said he’s going to spend when were ready to compete. I think were ready!
Now let’s forget this foolishness about trading Romaro and start banging down Rogers door demanding the Prince :-)
Syndergaard>Clemons
no way
Romero won’t be traded. he’s not worth trading… he is one of the faces of this franchise and he he possesses a lot of intangibles
It is exceedingly unlikely that Romero will be traded
but that’s not the reason
I realize I'm a bit late to the party here, but...
..Am I the only one who thinks that you’d have to be completely insane not to trade Romero For Strasburg, Harper, Trout or Kershaw straight up? With the first three we aren’t talking about some shoddy low minors prospects, these are three elite talents who are on the cusp of breaking out in the majors as early as next year, strasburg even is already at that point, despite the tommy john surgery. Kershaw is just indeniably the superior pitcher, and I say that with no disrespect to how good Romero is and how valuable he’s been for this team.
That said, isn’t like the dodgers, nationals or angels would ever go for such a trade either, so I guess it’s a moot point. I have to say I’m surprised how overwhelmingly against such a trade most of you would be. Do most of you buy into Romero continuing to get these results with the peripherals he’s putting up?
I agree
I agree with you as I stated in my post. But as you said none of those players are goig to be traded, except for maybe Kershaw. Maybe A.A could find away to get him out of L.A by exploiting there ownerships money issues. Well he’s at it he should grab Kemp too!!!
Syndergaard>Clemons
even with the money problems
i don’t see Kershaw leaving LA. That would be the worst move the team could make. Kemp, on the other hand, while extremely talented, lacks defensive abilities, and should be traded before he can’t play CF anymore, not that he’s good at it right now.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
I agree
There not going to trade Kershaw. But IMO he is the only one of the players that have been mentioned that I see as even having a remote chance of getting traded. Kemp would look ok to me in a corner outfield spot on this team.
Syndergaard>Clemons
If you could somehow pry kemp from them and get an outfield of Kemp/Rasmus/Bautista...
Uh, yeah. That outfield would be Ridiculous.
Capital R both intentional and mandatory.
I'm with you
I understand there’s significant risk with getting prospects or even Kershaw, who pitches in a much weaker division, but the reward is just so so high
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
i fully expect Romero to post a 3.5 ERA going forward, unless he improves on his K rate and BB rate,
and I’m not sure if he could improve enough to be an elite pitcher
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
I'd expect about the same.
And there’s no mistaking that a workhorse who can give you 200+ innings a year with that degree of effectiveness, especially coupled with his contract, is an extremely valuable commodity to have. Just nowhere near as valuable as the other names being bandied about here who people are turning their noses up at.
It isn’t a knock on Romero to say that you’d trade him for a major league ready player with superstar upside that they’re very likely to realize. That’s a trade you’d have to make without a second thought any time you’re given the chance.
Or in Kershaw's case, a player who's just as established as Romero, but also a bonafide ace.
And a guy without injury concerns (as few as you can possibly have for a pitcher) who is also good for 200+ innings a year.
he's definitely the best young player in the game right now
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
I'd take Justin Upton over him too.
Although a big factor is the injury concern every pitcher comes with, no matter how mechanically sound and durable they are.
Best young pitcher in the game right now though, definitely.
Only challenger would be Strasburg.
McCutchen, Upton, Kershaw
i think the three are interchangable
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
It's simple
NL West <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< AL East
If you have a guy who can post a sub-3 ERA in the AL East for the next 7-8 years then don’t trade him for players who haven’t proven themselves in our division.
ERA isn't exactly the best talent evaluator
Romero has a 3.50-ish xFIP, while Kershaw has a 2.80 xFIP. Kershaw is also 3 years younger
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
how big an impact do you think AL East has?
the NL-AL gap is about .5 R/G (ie a 3.00 ERA pitcher in the NL would be on average about a 3.50 ERA pitcher in the AL). that’s the gap between a pitcher hitting and a DH for all games. the difference between having an extra quarter of your starts against the yankees/red sox vs. mariners/athletics is probably on the order of .1 R/G. do you really think it’s any bigger than that?
its actually a lot smaller
a smart guy in jessef’s post showes us the Quality of Opponent OPS for Romero and Kershaw, showing the average OPS for the teams they’ve started against, and the difference was, i think, .002 OPS
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
If you read the response, however,
BaseballProspectus also had Romero as 85th in VORP — one slot behind Rick Porcello, who has pitched something like 130 innings of roughly 4 ERA/FIP/xFIP ball. I think their numbers are off somewhere.
I’m also trying to figure out how they calculate “Quality of Opponent OPS” — I assume that they account for number of plate appearances a hitter has acquired (i.e., a guy who is batting .400 over 50 plate appearances likely isn’t a .400 hitter), which would drastically affect how facing pitchers affects Quality of Opponent OPS.
I’m waiting on the response but will post it here whenever I get it.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
87th now, actually
Rank Player Innings ERA / FIP / xFIP
86th: Jeff Francis 156.1 IP, 4.89 / 3.98 / 4.12
87th: Ricky Romero 175 IP, 2.73 / 3.84 / 3.63
88th: Glen Perkins 50 IP, 2.34 / 2.05 / 2.73
I’m going to go out on a limb here and say something’s off here.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
even by fWAR
which probably undervalues him slightly given his high HR/FB rate this year, he’s 38th best. by rWAR (overvalues him slightly or more than slightly), he’s 5th
Total Internet points: 10 000
yup
the Mariners and Athletics combined have scored 25% fewer runs than the Yanks/Sox. say you make 10 starts and give up a number of runs against NYY and BOS equal to your 4 ERA. if those 10 starts are against the A’s/SEA, you give up 10 fewer runs that season. Ricky Romero gave up 98 runs last year, so his ERA would be lowered by 10%, or .35.
this was poor statistical analysis, but I’m not sure about the OPS vs. that the guy cited in jessef’s post. seems way too small to be accurate.
Total Internet points: 10 000
i think its accurate
Morrow’s QoO OPS was .754, quite a bit higher. David Price’s QoO OPS is .765, which sort of makes sense.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
romero has faced weaker opponents than he should have
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
or
divisions really doesn’t affect the level of offence the pitcher faces by a significant amount, or its random
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
this
well more that division makes a difference (see the posts by benk above/me below), but the variance in what teams each pitcher actually faces dwarfs the overall difference so that it’s mostly random within a single season, but across 3+ seasons you’d see a difference (assuming that strength of various teams offenses even stay constant in that time period)
yeah
in a larger sample, i’m guessing there’s a clearer trend. Even then, though, I’d doubt its as significant as people make it out to be.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I'm still not biting
until I find out how BaseballProspectus actually calculates Quality of Opponent OPS. No one has established the method, there are a few possible pitfalls that would really compromise the usefulness of the statistic: 1) accounting for insufficiently small samples to gauge a player’s OPS (i.e., overrating pinch hitters or backups); 2) overcompensating for small samples (i.e., overrating pitchers); or 3) using a batter’s OPS at the time the pitcher faced him instead of the full-season OPS.
Until I’m assured that Quality of Opponent OPS doesn’t fall into any of these pitfalls (particularly the first two), I question its usefulness, particularly when comparing AL pitchers to NL pitchers.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
and really the difference between AL East vs. AL West is probably more like 7 of your yankees/red sox starts get replaced with mariners/athletics…at 7 innings per start that’s 49 innings. if you replace a 4.00 ERA in 49 innings with 3.00 ERA, you lose 5.4 runs, which is about .25 of ERA if he pitches 200 innings.
so there, that’s about the size of the effect. AL West → AL Central → AL East is about .1 points of ERA per step, whereas NL in general to AL in general is about .5 points.
that's not insignificant
though probably a little smaller than I’d have imagined
Total Internet points: 10 000
agreed 100%
after taking into account how good the player is, contract situation, and injury risk (ie pitchers get injured a lot, position players don’t), there’s about 20 players i would trade romero for straight up without hesitation, and then probably another 30 that i’d have to think about
AA has traded the open day starter in the offseason the past two years (Marcum and Halladay). I think he’ll be apt to do it again considering the depth of SPs in the organization, the lack of quality pitchers in the bullpen and a quality 2B. Let’s say if Arizona comes calling and offers Kelly Johnson, David Hernandez and Brad Ziegler for Romero, I’ll be taking that one.
Agreed
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
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Official Internet Points Bank Owner.
hahahaha
especially because Kelly Johnson is a free agent. this one actually made me laugh
Total Internet points: 10 000
I'm sure he/she meant well
but its just not a good idea
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
Too Many Mutha Uckers, Ucking With My Shi.
Stupid me...
After thinking about it, yeah, that’s is a terrible trade I suggested especially since:
1) bullpen help is really cheap. None of these guys I suggested aren’t even all that great.
2) Kelly Johnson is a FA. Stupid me.
3) Closers aren’t really to valuable. They come and go pretty quickly.
However, I still stand by the fact that Romero could be traded for position of need. Hotshot 2B?
Darwin Barney?
Just kidding
PS I’m a guy.
You have learned your mistakes.
You are forgiven.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
“Romero could be traded for position of need”
I don’t know about you but I think our pitching is a position of need itself.
hence
trade for Stras/Kershaw
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
No disrespect intended
But this is an incredibly stupid and bad idea. A team’s on the up and up, we just traded our ACE a year ago…….and we have a guy who considers himself the leader of the staff…..and you want to trade him?
Let’s not be ridiculous.
you know what's ridiculous?
choosing Romero over Strasburg. No disrespect intended.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
by Pikachu on Aug 23, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A rec for good rational and siting the late Mr. Layton in your sign
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
that came off as douchey
but my point stands. Strasburg is an infinitely better talent than Romero, and the leadership aspect is severely overrated in my opinion.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
The problem with this is that you would never get Stras for Romero
So I don’t see how this is a point that could be made.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
i think i've repeated this over and over
the question isn’t Romero for Straburg, the question was “do you trade a player at his perceived peak for a player with a much higher, yet unproven, ceiling”. Doesn’t have to be Romero for Stras.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
That question lacks context
Without having examples of players to determine the differences in relative peaks, floors, ages, team situations, how well the players fit in their current ballparks (e.g., why Granderson is so valuable to the Yankees, see hit tracker online), etc., answering that question is impossible.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I clicked no without reading the strasburg/harper part
Id like to change my vote to yes, you’d be crazy not to. Romero is great, but is he irreplaceable? no.
People mention the injury risk with Strasburg, but that risk is inherent with any pitcher in the majors. Romero could tweak his shoulder in the first inning of his next game and never pitch again, thats the nature of throwing a ball close to 100 MPH.
Yes he has a great contract, but i would take strasburg + someone near Romeros level at twice the price 7 days a week. There are alot of great pitchers available every offseason and every deadline… lets not forget the Phillies got Halladay(with an extension) for a pretty reasonable price.
So would people not trade ROMERO + 1 TYPE A + 2 TYPE B PROSPECTS for HALLADAY + STRASBURG? Feel free to correct me if im getting the details of the Halladay trade wrong.
Are these 2 trades out there? Almost certainly not. But my point is, hypothetically speaking as easily as you can trade ML talent for a prospect(Romero for Stras) you could trade other prospects for other ML talent and improve your team, so the “we need to win now so i will never trade Romero for prospects ever” argument is pretty narrow-minded.
someone with better knowledge of how our prospects compare with what Philly gave up
could maybe fill in the blanks from my hypothetical trade. Make any example you want! Gose, Hutchinson, Snider for Lincecum? Maybe we have to throw in someone off the major league roster as well. If we were to pull this off then do you trade Romero?
by ucantcoachthat on Aug 24, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
i'd do Gose Hutchinson and Snider for Lincecum in a heartbeat
its similar to what the Indians gave up for Ubaldo. It’s a slightly overpay, but Lincecum is fantastic.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
He's a FA in 2012. Next offseason, whatever it works out to be.
Once over the hill, you pick up speed.
oh
pardon, i thought he was extended. That’s a big overpay then.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I wish we still had that Halladay guy...
sigh..
If you could trade Romero for Strasburg? I would do it 10/10 times. Washington would do that… 0/10 times….
I would trade any player on the roster if it brought enough of a return back.
.313/.400/.565
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