Two Blown Saves for the Price of One: Jays Lose to Rays
by Tom Dakers on Aug 4, 2011 4:57 PM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Game Recaps
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PrintBlue Jays 6 Rays 7 (12 innings)
That was just awful.
Jon Rauch has been just awful as closer. 9 home runs given up in 45 innings? 3 blown saves in his last 4 chances. Not that Shawn Camp is throwing any better. Camp came in with a runner on second and 1 out, with the 1 run lead in the 11th. Got an out then gave up a single and double. After an intentional walk to Johnny Damon to load the bases, Evan Longoria hit one hard up the middle, Shawn kicked at it and it went to Jose Bautista, who threw to first just in time to get Longoria. If Evan didn't dive into first he would have been safe and the game would have ended there. It would have been merciful.
Then in the 12th B.J. Upton bloops one down the first base line and runs out a triple. We intentionally walk two to load the bases. Why? Because Camp needs no room for error. Camp gets a strikeout then Robinson Chirinos grounds one just out of Escobar's reach and we are put out of our misery. I hate intentional walks to load the bases.
Rauch's line 1.1 innings, 3 hits, 3 earned, 1 k, 1 home run. Camp 1.1 inning, 4 hits, 1 earned, 3 intentional walks, 1 k.
Brett Cecil had a pretty good start, the Longoria 3 run homer in the 5th was the bad mark against him.Other than that he had 5 scoreless innings. In total, 6 innings, 4 hits, 3 walks, 4 k.
Casey Janssen pitched 2 perfect innings, with 3 k. Frankie Frank gave up a single in his inning but didn't allow a run. Let's put Frankie back in the closer spot.
On offense? We got 2 runs in the first, after loading the bases with no outs. We should have had more. Jose Bautista hit a solo homer in the 8th to tie the game. Colby Rasmus had a opposite field double to give us a 1 run lead in the 10th. Jose Molina hit a 2 run triple (!) in the 11th, to give us another lead.
Adam Lind was 3 for 6, and was hitting the ball hard all day. I'm hoping his slump is over. Rasmus was 2 for 6. Yunel Escobar 1 for 4, 2 walks. Bautista 1 for 4, homer, 2 walks.
Jays of the Day are Molina (.429 WPA), Rasmus (.383), Bautista (.220), Janssen (.138) and Frankie (.127). Suckage numbers go to Camp (-.608), Rauch (-.504), Snider (-.299, bye Travis), Thames (-.192), Cecil (-.161), EE (-.192) and Davis (-.098, for tripping and getting picked off of first, dive back Rajai).
Tomorrow we start 3 games with the Orioles. Brad Mills gets his second start of the year, with the Jay. New Orioles pitcher Tommy Hunter (1-1, 3.31) makes his first start of the year.
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Tom, can please give Rauch 2 suckage numbers? One for his work in the 10th and one for his work in the 11th
"Touch ´em all, Joe!"
by jaysfanfromeurope on Aug 4, 2011 5:04 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
If Rauch can´t keep the ball in the park… well let´s meet him in Vegas!
"Touch ´em all, Joe!"
by jaysfanfromeurope on Aug 4, 2011 5:05 PM EDT reply actions
Is there no potential closer in the minors we could give a shot to end the season? Fahrquar? It must be so disheartening for the players to lose like this repeatedly. If AA is sticking with our current crop of veteran late innings specialists in the hopes of getting draft picks for them, it is a strategy that is badly hurting our current play for dubious future gains. Is anyone seriously going to sign Rauch for next season? It is also blocking development of young pitchers
Yes
Someone will sign Rauch.
No, there aren’t many arms in the minors who are ready to move up.
He’s sticking with them because they’re veterans on major league contracts, and thus cannot be sent down without giving them away for free. There’s only so much roster tinkering you can do mid-season.
Brett Lawrie is not going to play 2B. Enough.
the real question is
is there any possibility Rauch declines arbitration given he will get a raise from the arbitrator despite this pathetic year of “performance”? the answer is NO!
So the pick we anticipate getting is not going to materialize.
Possibly
Someone puts in a claim for him when he gets put on waivers and AA can swing a deal.
Walking the bases loaded brings backs memories of Jimmy Williams
Yeah I said it and yeah I’m old.
Thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Aug 4, 2011 5:14 PM EDT reply actions
HA OLDIE
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Whats wrong with
intentionally loading the bases in the bottom of extra innings? It’s not like you can score the guy on 2nd without Upton scoring first (and ending the game).
Brett Lawrie is not going to play 2B. Enough.
if the bases are loaded you are making it so a walk or hit batter can win the game.
gives the pitcher no room for error. We already lost one on that move, pitcher missed just by a little and the batter leaned into the pitch and got an easy RBI.
Fair point
But especially with fewer than 2 outs (and assuming you don’t have a top-of-the-line strikeout machine pitching), it seems to fall somewhere between a defensible and an intelligent risk to take.
Brett Lawrie is not going to play 2B. Enough.
I can see 1 IBB to set up the double play
But I felt 2 was excessive. Not to mention the added stress on the pitcher.
Cmon Tom, stop making stuff up, this game never happened
lol just kidding, it might be selective memory but this is always the type of ending with a Jays vs Rays game. Its so sad, we just cant win a series Tampa, if not for Ricky this could be even more ugly if not already
The Blue Jays closer role...
Enter at your own risk.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Francisco has had exactly two bad appearances since June 30 – there’s no reason at all to keep putting Rauch into important innings, even less so Camp. Of course, Frank did his job today and someone would probably have taken Rauch deep in the ninth if they were reversed and it wouldn’t have mattered.
Still, if we’re going to have a “closer” there’s no possible argument for Rauch anymore and hasn’t been for a while.
A closer stamp hasn't worked this season
So they should turn to closer by committee. Situational stats reign supreme. Bring out the guy that has the best splits against the 3 guys coming up and stick with it.
Casey Janssen may be our best reliever
going into this afternoon’s game (in which Casey struck out three batters over two perfect innings):
Jon Rauch: 6.15 k/9, 2.38 bb/9, 36.1% gb-rate xFIP: 4.40
Frank Francisco: 10.19 k/9, 3.86 bb/9, 37.9% gb-rate xFIP: 3.33
Casey Janssen: 7.96 k/9, 2.56 bb/9, 49.5% gb-rate xFIP: 3.25
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Hasn't exactly been lights out since returning.
4.0 IP 7H 1HR 3SO 1BB. Better than Rauch over the period, but putting him in closer spot fresh from the DL never having been there this season seems a little silly.
"Sure Rauch blew the save, maybe he should go out for a second try" - nobody.
"He that hath a beard is more than a youth, and he that hath no beard is less than a man" - Bill Shakespeare
by craig in calgary on Aug 4, 2011 8:50 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
I was groaning in agony like the rest of you in the game thread
One thing we have to remember is that the Jays traded away several decent relievers last week. The Jays BP is going to suck and boy did it ever.
Imagine if the Jays had Fraser, Dotel and Zep?
Yeah, but we now have Rasmus.
It’s the price the Jays paid to get him… but it doesn’t mean I enjoyed watching them lose in this horrible a fashion. Not one damn bit.
However, just remember one thing. The 2007 Rays had a lot of games like this too. Their BP was just the crap that year… there was that infamous (for them) game in TO when they pounded Roy Halladay for 10 runs and were up 11-6 going into the bottom of the 9th and the Jays scored 6 runs to win it. Yeah… next year their BP didn’t suck and they won the AL East.
/optimism/
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Aug 4, 2011 9:28 PM EDT reply actions
Very true
From a glass half full perspective, while these blown saves suck big time, they also mean that the Jays were leading very late in the ball game. This is very promising for the future because if they can find some reliable arms for the bullpen in 2012, they could take a huge leap in the number of games they win.
Well, if there is anything that is relatively easy to replace, its the bullpen
Especially considering the Jays farm is overflowing with arms, it would serve a dual purpose.
1. Get young guys to come up and fill in at the pen, solving/decreasing our pen problems.
2. The young guys get some experience in the bigs, which is a step up from hitter friendly Las Vegas. Moreover, since we have a crowded major league rotation as well, auditions for starting spots will be hard to come by. Crossing fingers for an Alexei Ogando type situation (great reliever turns into great starter).
Closer Woes
I say bring up Bobby Korecky from Las Vegas. We’ve got nothing to lose. I think in general teams stick to long with shit relievers and bull pen guys. How often do we see a young guy come up from AA or AAA, kick ass for like 3 or 4 starts, then get figured out by the oposition, get detailed scouting reports on them, and then get rocked and sent back down. In theory it would take opposing teams much longer to figure out a new call up closer or reliever because of the limited exposure they would have to them. Opposing teams only see a closer or late reliever at most 3 innings in an entire series. If it takes teams a month to figure out and hit an unknown like Korecky then at least that is a month with 4 or 5 less blown saves then Rauch.
Alvarez has been lights out.....
At New Hampshire – throws a 96 heater and has a nasty curve. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him come up out of the bullpen in Sept.
Closers overvalued?
I periodically come across baseball writings about how the closer role is overvalued, that saving games in the late innings is no different than other relief roles.
Growing up with rock-solid closer-teams featuring Henke and Ward, then seeing a season like this where no one can seem to consistently finish off games, I have a hard time believing this.
Now that we’ve finally developed a catcher that can end the catcher merry-go-round of the past decade, can we work on developing or obtaining a young closer than can do the job for several seasons?
Making a mental note to add this to my Christmas wishlist…
you may have a hard time gelieving this
but holding games in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings is no less important than in the 9th. Also, getting a lot of good innings from your starters is waaaay more important.
yes
good relievers are valuable, particularly ones who can pitch multiple innings (Ward had a 4 win season or two as setup man). using your best reliever exclusively in a closing role is just bad managing, though pretty much everyone does it
WAR... WAR never changes.
The 9th is more important
Just by a little tiny wincy bit.
If you are the away team, you will actually lose the game if you blow the save in the bottom of the inning,9th and on.
In the 6th 7th and 8th, your team still has a chance to win.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions
very rarely is it actually more important
it’s only more important if the starter/ set up guys have done a great job keeping guys off base. more often than not, the opposing team witll threaten (say, men on 1st and 3rd, 1 out) in the 7th or 8th in a close game which makes that very likely to be the highest leverage situation. even if it isn’t (like if the bases get loaded in the 9th) you still picked a great time to use your best reliever, and in the 9th inning you can just use your second-best. up 3 in the 9th is a horrible time to waste your best reliever
WAR... WAR never changes.
no you aren't getting it
blow the save in the 8th, you are losing the game
Blow the save in the 9th you LOST the game.
It is more important, again just by a little bit. there is more pressure
I’m not saying i think the closer should only close, i do think they should be used in key situations if we have another top end reliever. If we can rely on at least two guys to “close” games, then I’m fine with having them come in whenever, in tight games. But if you do use the closer earlier in the game, you lose him for that tiny bit more important 9th.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
and i understand if its only tied its still a blown game, lets just assume you give up the lead, minor details
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
that wasn't at all my point
you disagreed with me at the beginning, then noted that I’m right in that the closer shouldn’t close.
yes, but LI the 9th inning has the potential to be the highest leverage (since as you say, the game could simply end in the 9th) but it’s unlikely, unless your starter was lights-out, that the start of the 9th is the best place to use your best reliever. that’s all I’m saying
WAR... WAR never changes.
yeah i just re read it
been a rough morning sorry.
Where do you find those graphs that show probability to win the game. I’m curious to see the % difference of losing a 1 run lead in the 6th 7th 8th 9th look like
someone should make a post, cause im way to lazy.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions
this may not be exactly what you're asking
keep in mind that the ninth inning run scoring is so low because the home team doesn’t bat when its ahead, and because of some walk-offs.
COLBY RASMUS
run-scoring in the ninth
should also be somewhat lower due to more usage of the best bullpen arms, right?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
you are assuming the ninth is more important just because of the possible outcomes
you are ignoring that the opposition’s best chance to score comes up in the ninth only about a third of the time out of the 7th 8th and 10th.
COLBY RASMUS
that's exactly what i'm assuming
lets say you bring in rauch in the 7th, he walks 2 guys, you bring in the closer FF, he doesn’t allow a run. But then you have to use Miller in the 9th, and he gets hit around and loses the game.
or use FF in the 7th and he lets nobody on, but then rauch comes in the 9th and there is nobody to bail him out.
there is more on the line late in the game, if you don’t have more then one “closer type” guy, you need to save him until the end.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
you're not taking into account the strength of the opposition
teams don’t always bring the same guys up to bat in the 7th 8th and 9th.
COLBY RASMUS
there are a ton of minor details
you just want to be safer in the 9th by making sure you have your best guy ready so you don’t lose the game.
if you have a Lefty closer and a slighly better righty closer, who gets the majority of the opportunities, but in the 8th there are more RH guys up, I’m all for having him come in and have the lefty in the 9th.
Without looking at numbers, there just seems to be a large difference between a “closers” numbers then an 8th setup guy and all that, Yeah, its usually the best reliever so it makes sense. But when the game is on the line you want to make sure you have that guy
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions
No
the game is on the line when the best hitters come up, not when its the last inning. If you have the 1-2-3 hitters up in the 8th, and the 5-6-7 hitters coming up in the 9th it makes no sense to use your best reliever in the 9th, and a worse reliever in the 8th.
COLBY RASMUS
nope, YOU are not getting it
Say team A, the Jays are up 3-1, but won’t score any runs in the 7th-9th (they’re facing three Mariano Riveras or something).
Whether your worst reliever gives up 3 runs in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning does not matter, because you’ll always lose the game.
Not to mention half the games you play you blow the save in the 9th you still get another inning of AB’s as you bat in the bottom of the 9th.
Bottom line is saves are as pointless a stat as wins for a pitcher. For relievers the best stat is shutdowns and meltdowns as it doesn’t matter when you do the work it depends on the WPA of you getting the outs or giving up the runs.
by WizardofNaz on Aug 5, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I've
started putting together some data so I (with help from benk) can eventually put up a “this-is-the-post-you-link-to-when-someone-says-we-need-a-proven-closer” fanpost.
I’m in the midst of exams, so this is both the first and the least useful part of the data, but it’s interesting just to see it all in one place.
http://www.mediafire.com/?s5npg6hqpldbsvs
The file shows the top 30 players in saves for each year from 2001 through 2010 and how they performed in subsequent years (ie if they ever met/exceeded that year’s total, how they ranked).
When your bullpen blows a lead it counts as 1 loss, but when your closer blows a lead it counts as 3 losses. Common knowledge, man.
Can we make one giant Fallacy post?
Start with articles/stats to prove Lawrie is not a good 2nd basemen and will stay at 3rd or move to the OF.
Then do McGowan will be healthier as a starter
Then the closer/saves argument that you guys will cover.
ONE POST TO RULE THEM ALL!
Sure!
Although I suppose the Lawrie one is now moot.
If you want to play a role in the creation of said post, let me know and I’ll give you a shout either in the comments (of a later post) or by email (i suppose if we don’t want to list emails here, we could both email Tom and ask him to pass them on or something) when I’m done exams and actually have some time to work on it.
When your bullpen blows a lead it counts as 1 loss, but when your closer blows a lead it counts as 3 losses. Common knowledge, man.
saves are a way more pointless (less poignant?) stat than wins
because they’re much more situationally dependent.
Consider this: if one pitcher has a 20-win season and another has a 10-win season, even without looking at any other stats, you can be pretty sure the 20-win season was better. However, if one pitcher has 40 saves and another has 10 saves, you still really have no idea.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
this is relevant how?
we are now assuming a blown save in the 6th leads to no runs in the game.
oh ok.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
he said it doesn’t matter when the reliever gives up the three runs.
It does matter, in the 9th, you don’t have a chance to get them back, in the 6 7 8 you do.
assuming we don’t score any runs to retake the lead is a stretch and a half.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
you have no point
none at all, there is nothing here.
i am replying to this quote
Whether your worst reliever gives up 3 runs in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning does not matter, because you’ll always lose the game.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
lets make that clearer
Whether your worst reliever gives up 3 runs in the 7th, 8th or 9th inning does not matter, because you’ll always lose the game
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
You took that entirely without the context
of the hypothetical
When your bullpen blows a lead it counts as 1 loss, but when your closer blows a lead it counts as 3 losses. Common knowledge, man.
see and now you are reffering to a totally different point
those graphs that show win probabilty after every play, notice how they jump more in the 9th inning?
Its more important, the game is on the line. its the end of the game, its the final hill mary with 00 on the clock, the buzzer beater.
There are 30 MLB Organizations that agree its more important.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
and to be more specifc
there are more defensive and offensive replacements made in the later stages of the game. Pinch runners, pinch hitters, etc.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
There were 30 (well, fewer pre-expansion) MLB organizations
who thought that RBIs, runs, batting average, slugging% and pitcher wins were the most important stats in the world.
No, its exactly the same point as has been made the whole time. You don’t get to quote something out of context and then complain that it doesn’t make sense. It obviously can’t make sense since you’ve entirely ignored the context in which the point was presented.
Ever notice how the win probabilities jump less in the 9th inning if a team is up 3 than in the 7th with a team up by 1?
No, giving up a run is giving up a run. Your implied justification for why it matters more is that apparently the other team wont be able to continue to score runs after scoring in the 6/7/8th, while the first team will.
It does matter, in the 9th, you don’t have a chance to get them back, in the 6 7 8 you do.This ignores that the opponent can still score runs in later innings too
When your bullpen blows a lead it counts as 1 loss, but when your closer blows a lead it counts as 3 losses. Common knowledge, man.
it does not ignore that fact at all
just because its not said, doesn’t mean its ignored. you can apply the same principle, you still have time to regain the lead, it can yo-yo every inning up until the end of the 9th.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
you are being confrontational
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
no I'm not
I’m trying to have an argument, and you’re just taking points out of context and ignoring me
WAR... WAR never changes.
how is out of context
he is impying the game is over in the 7th, when its NOT, even if its three marioan rivera’s
if you lose the lead in the bottom of the 9th, you lose the game its a fact.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
and not tie obviously
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
it was a fricking minor error in one post
that you seem to just be clinging to and ignoring the rest of the arguments.
if you assume that both teams are roughly equally likely to score runs in the last 2 innings, then yes, you are going to lose much more often than not if you give up the lead in the 7th inning.
and yes, leverage does increase in a non-linear fashion as the game goes on. the argument is not against having good relievers, but rather that a bases-empty situation when up 3 runs in the 9th inning is very rarely the most important time of the game
WAR... WAR never changes.
pretty funny
you claim i’m not ignoring things, when you have clearly ignored everything i have said in this thread. You would know i agreed that if you have more then one elite reliever, its better to use the designated closer earlier in the game, if it so helps the team
I am done.
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by Bowling_Guy25 on Aug 5, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He explicitly made the exact same assumption
that you implicitly made (that the Jays would not score any runs in the 6th, 7th, or 8th innings).
The whole point here is that the offence works independently of the defence so you don’t save someone for the ninth just because it’s the ninth; you use your best reliever when the situation is most dire.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
The offence works independently of the defence so you don’t save someone for the ninth just because it’s the ninth; you use your best reliever when the situation is most dire.
Please just copy and paste this as the first comment on every pertinent thread?
It’s probably the best one line rebuttal I’ve seen yet.
Also, the offer in my thread above extends to you as well, if you’d like to join.
When your bullpen blows a lead it counts as 1 loss, but when your closer blows a lead it counts as 3 losses. Common knowledge, man.
Sure, I'd be interested
sounds like a good diversion from actual work. My email is at the bottom of the page so if you have an outline or something like that, I’d be happy to take a look
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I'm done exams the middle of next week
I’ll put something together then
When your bullpen blows a lead it counts as 1 loss, but when your closer blows a lead it counts as 3 losses. Common knowledge, man.
Where...
…are you studying?
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 5, 2011 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Was at Queen's
switched programs though, and am now at York.
When your bullpen blows a lead it counts as 1 loss, but when your closer blows a lead it counts as 3 losses. Common knowledge, man.
Seriously?
And how many times have the Yanks ran Rivera out to the mound in the 6th or 7th inning of any game that might be 3-1 or 4-1 (in their favour) in which the other team has the bases loaded and none or maybe one out?
they call that fallacy
the appeal to authority
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Furthermore
By using your best reliever early, you ensure he actually gets into the game. If you’re up, say, 2-1 with 2 men on and 0 out in the 7th and the other team puts up [some number greater than 2], you’ve now made it necessary to regain the lead before even being in a situation where it makes sense to use the closer (in the conventional way).
When your bullpen blows a lead it counts as 1 loss, but when your closer blows a lead it counts as 3 losses. Common knowledge, man.
tom did a nice writeup of him way back when
in case you didn’t see it at the time:
http://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2009/1/4/708881/top-50-all-time-greatest-j
and i suggest checking out the hardballtimes article I linked at the time ( http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/broken-the-middle-reliever/ ) . . . in addition to some interesting bits about Eichhorn, it’s a pretty moving piece
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I had just heard of him yesterday
since I wasn’t alive in the 80s and am too young to remember the early 90s teams. but man, he was awesome
WAR... WAR never changes.
That's true
though the flipside of that, of course, is that serves as an effective way to make sure you that you aren’t wasting his innings, either. Assuming your best bullpen arm can’t pitch every day, it does make some sense to save him until the ninth inning so that you aren’t overworking him.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
kind of funny
you say that you have trouble believing that closers are overvalued. Think any of that has to do with you overvaluing closers?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by jessef on Aug 5, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
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