FanPost

The Jays bullpen and meltdowns revisited


I had a look at the Jays bullpen and how they stacked up against other teams in an earlier post. Let's see how things stand now.

First here's the standings:

 

Team SD MD Ratio
Phillies 87 29 3.00
Braves 131 44 2.98
Giants 118 40 2.95
Red Sox 87 33 2.64
Padres 102 40 2.55
Indians 86 37 2.32
Yankees 84 37 2.27
Blue Jays @ #8
90 43 2.09
Pirates 117 56 2.09
Reds 94 45 2.09
Athletics 83 41 2.02
Royals 102 52 1.96
Angels 88 45 1.96
Brewers 94 49 1.92
Marlins 100 53 1.89
Mets 87 48 1.81
Diamondbacks 85 47 1.81
White Sox 73 41 1.78
Mariners 54 32 1.69
Rockies 89 53 1.68
Tigers 70 42 1.67
Cubs 79 49 1.61
Nationals 90 56 1.61
Twins 75 47 1.60
Dodgers 66 46 1.43
Rangers 61 43 1.42
Orioles 66 49 1.35
Cardinals 83 64 1.30
Rays 58 48 1.21
Astros 57 52 1.10

 

What's this?! The Jays have stayed in 8th place in ratio (and actually maintained the same ratio)? Given the rash of blown saves and poor bullpen performance, I would have expected them to drop down a few spots. But we should look perhaps at the individual relievers to see if there's something there.

The individual relievers (with those with no SD or MDs or now starting removed)

 

Name SD MD Ratio
Casey Janssen 10 2 5.00
Jason Frasor 14 3 4.67
Octavio Dotel 8 2 4.00
Marc Rzepczynski 10 6 1.67
Jon Rauch 16 10 1.60
Frank Francisco 11 7 1.57
Shawn Camp 12 8 1.50
Luis Perez 4 3 1.33

 

A ratio of 1.6 :1 is an average reliever and 1:1 is replacement level.

Notice how many of the top relievers are no longer with the team. It's not surprising then that the team has had problems closing out winnable games recently. They are missing most of their more reliable arms. It's also worth noting that when your 2nd best reliever is at average reliever level, you don't have a good bullpen.

In summary, the Jays bullpen actually became more reliable, but that improvement was fueled by arms that are no longer with the team. I expect them to drop as the season progresses.

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