Potential FA Closers?
by 7-9nomore on Aug 5, 2011 5:40 PM EDT
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PrintLooking at the upcoming FAs, Who would you prefer the jays target, if any? I included some names to consider here, feel free to add more. Note that all of them require Type A compensation, which really is just a 2nd rd pick if we also go for a star like fielder or pujols or cj wilson (according to estimates from mlbtraderumors)
Koji Uehara
-Dominant this year in AL East.. in set up role
-Injury prone
-not as good track record as others
-probably cheapest of the bunch
Jonathan Papelbon
-established closer in AL East, had one so so year and rest were great
-is a red sox/somewhat of an ass
-most expensive of the bunch
-youngest of the bunch (i think)
-familiarity with farrell?
Other FA options from the NL:
Ryan Madson - Phillies probably would want him back
Heath Bell - will require hefty compensation in form of a trade , reports said he will accept arbitration if san diego offers it
K-Rod - most ? mark of the bunch
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ugh
just imagining giving away a draft pick to sign one of these guys makes me sick
COLBY RASMUS
by Pikachu on Aug 5, 2011 5:52 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Pikachu & benk:
Do you guys set these up in advance – the comment followed by an appropriate picture?
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 5, 2011 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
creepy!
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 5, 2011 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought I was going to be the first comment
so I was just going to leave the facepalm, but then Pikachu beat me to it :(
WAR... WAR never changes.
His FIP/X-FIP in the past 2 years is in the mid 2s, which I think suggests he’s still quite excellent despite that gaudy LOB this year.
you do understand that lower BABIP and higher LOB%
probably makes it easier for pitchers to remain effective FIP/xFIP wise. Not sure if this is just pure BS on my part, but I think there’s a relation.
COLBY RASMUS
the MLBTraderumor on Uehara is...
…that Texas will try to resign him and use him to entice Yu Darvish, IIRC.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 5, 2011 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
It was actually Morosi at FoxSports...
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/MLB-Texas-Rangers-Japanese-players-Yu-Darvish-080211
It’s just speculation and rumour.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 6, 2011 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Uehara will not be a FA
He has a vesting option that will easily kick in.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/2012-vesting-options-update.html
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 6, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Vesting Option
Doesn’t that become a players option? if so pretty sure he will opt out for long term security.
I thought it was a team option...
…but I could be wrong. Cot’s Contracts wasn’t any more helpful.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 7, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I would hate Papelbon even more if they gave up a draft pick for him
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
though
it’s annoying that our two top position player prospects are now at least a little redundant (d’Arnaud/Gose)
WAR... WAR never changes.
x
If snider doesn’t pan out, put Gose in center and Rasmus in left. AAAAND I like D’arnaud and would like to platoon him and Arencibia as catcher/DH.
d'Arnaud and JPA shouldn't platoon
there isn’t a platoon advantage to be had; they both hit right. I do think either one is good enough to start in the Majors in 2012 though
WAR... WAR never changes.
Mike Wilner on Jays talk answered this one
JPA had ~2 seasons at Vegas before being called up. d’Arnaud hasn’t played at AAA yet. I doubt we’d see him start in 2012. He’ll probably play all of next season at AAA and then they’ll see.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
oh no, I don't think there's a chance he'll be starting on the Jays in 2012
but I also don’t think he’d be particularly overmatched if he did. 2013 – or late 2012, if JPA gets off to a hot start and gets traded or something – is much more likely
WAR... WAR never changes.
It's not everyday you see a backstop with 20+ homer potential.
They don’t grow on trees. I dunno, what price would you place on his head? In a 1-1 trade, what’s his equal?
I dunno
he’s got power potential but it’s far from clear if he’ll be able to get on base enough to be more than a “very good – for a catcher” offensive player, and his defense by nearly every metric has been horrible this season. I think he’ll be a good player – he might even put up a 4 win season or two – but I think he’s probably worth no more than an average starter (which as we’ve discussed is pretty valuable)
WAR... WAR never changes.
Soo... not a whole lot.
That’s interesting, because I always figured that JPA had potential to be a very productive major leaguer.
On a side note: How does a WAR value differ from a pitcher and a position player?
I dunno how to answer that question
they’re based on completely different stats
WAR... WAR never changes.
its hard to say
can’t compare position players and pitchers using WAR. Its just a completely different statistic
COLBY RASMUS
Thank God we have AA because you are underselling him
He’s first in HRs and 8th in wOBA (I have no clue what that means but its good). Oh, and he is a rookie.
If he hits .240-.260 as a sophomore and leads catchers in homeruns, he will be a top 5 catcher who is young and controllable.
by Matthew Mueller on Aug 7, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
his defence
last in eligibible players, at least according to sabermetrics. probably not actually the worst, but he’s pretty damn bad.
COLBY RASMUS
its not a finished product
are you saying he won’t improve because I think by the time D’Arnaud makes the majors (2013) JPA will improve his defense and OBP, but he is the only full-time catcher with legit 25-30 hr pop, making his ceiling higher than most (atleast offensively).
by Matthew Mueller on Aug 7, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Brian McCann?
and yes, he has a ceiling. but it’s far from guaranteed he’ll reach it or even stop being really awful on defense. 8th in wOBA among catchers is good but not elite (of course he’s a rookie) but he’s probably not thaaat good
WAR... WAR never changes.
McCann has never hit 25 hrs.
With how few runs are being scored these days, some team will pay for a catcher who can hit 25-30hr, especially if he gets his avg up around .250
by Matthew Mueller on Aug 7, 2011 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
i seriously have doubts about Arencibia ever hitting .250
he swings a lot, misses a lot, hits a lot of flyballs and doesn’t hit line drives.
COLBY RASMUS
well so far
presumably he hit some last year. and I wouldn’t be so surprised if he became a .235/.305/.500 hitter which would be very good for a catcher
WAR... WAR never changes.
sure
though i do think his ISO is a bit ridiculous right now. I don’t think he has this much power.
I demand to be heard.
he's firmly in mike napoli/piazza territory
i don’t think he has as much power as those guys
I demand to be heard.
If he can catch
I’d rather the traditional catcher which is defensive and they look silly at the plate.
Sure 20-25 HR are nice but its not like Travis D’ will be hitting any less than 15-20 a season.
When JP was 22 (And happened to be in AA, the same place that Travis now finds himself at the same age) he hit .282/.302/.496. Travis is hitting .324/.394/.550. JP hit a HR every 18.7 AB and Travis every 22.2. Not a huge difference. I would take the fewer HR’s and .100 OBP higher version of JP who can catch.
Brett Cecil actually might be a decent example
pretty good, probably won’t ever be really good, some team control
WAR... WAR never changes.
Jose, Lawrie and Rasmus for Brian Wilson.
"He that hath a beard is more than a youth, and he that hath no beard is less than a man" - Bill Shakespeare
by craig in calgary on Aug 5, 2011 9:46 PM EDT reply actions
wrong font
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 5, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Koji
I voted for Koji… at least for now. I don’t really see anyone in house that has the kind of closer stuff you need to get by in the AL East. I like entertaining the possibility of converting a SP (Litsch, McGowan), but for now, that doesn’t appear on the table. I also wouldn’t want to deliver a high pay out to a guy we really only want pitching an inning each game. I usually like to build from within, but I just don’t see who our options are.
Try Out
Id give an opportunity to Jonathan Broxton, hes a FA, hes had injury problem this year and last year he wasnt very good, but with no draft pick being lost i think it would be an intriguing option. He’ll be 28 next season
that's not a bad idea, actually
he could probably be pretty good as long as he could be had for cheap and 3 or fewer years
WAR... WAR never changes.
Agree...
…with his performance this year, opting out will lead to a major haircut.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Aug 8, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I like the
Carreno option….also what about Chad Beck? At 26 he’s too old to be a starting pitching prospect and he has a good mid 90’s fastball/ slider combination which is useful.
He’s also going to be trampled by the stampede of good young starting arms coming up in the next few years.
How about a trade?
Is Andrew Bailey still on the block? He won’t hit free agency until after the 2014 season, so he could be a nice longer term option.
~K
"As the governor of Louisiana once said, the only way Chris Kelsay can lose his job is if he got caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
I hope they learned that signing a closer for longer than 3 years rarely works out
Especially in the AL bEast.
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
the difference between BJ and Bailey is that Bailey’s still under team control on a reasonable contract. Blocked in Oakland
how is Bailey blocked in Oakland?
He is currently their closer.
Tampa just put Farnsworth on waivers
Maybe we should should claim him. He’s got a 3.3 mil team option for next year and he is a Type A free agent in case we decide to decline the option and offer arbitration
I'd be happy with that
though I’m pretty sure they’d revoke the waiver if anyone claimed him, unfortunately
When your bullpen blows a lead it counts as 1 loss, but when your closer blows a lead it counts as 3 losses. Common knowledge, man.
I imagine they plan to revoke those waivers
if any of their rivals tries to put in a claim.
trade availability
Tampa is just reminding everyone he’s available. If AA hasn’t pulled the trigger, its because they’re asking too much.
Henderson Alvarez/Kyle Drabek
One of the names I have heard, wish I could remember the sources because it’s been multiple ones is Henderson Alvarez possibly being moved into the role as an in house option – with the starting pitching we have already he could find it hard to find a spot in the rotation long term. Another possible option down the road if he continues to struggle as a starter may be Kyle Drabek. Every year since he has been drafted Baseball America has predicted possible struggles for him as a starter and more potential as a closer.
PRINCE FIELDER!!!
I'm thinking that when the Leafs win the Cup, I'll lose my drinking problem.
by leafsfan4life94 on Aug 7, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I would stay in House
Or trade…
In house I bet we have a lot of young pitchers that throw heat that could potentially close. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some experiments as early as September call ups.
On the trade front we could try and move Hill or some prospects for a nice young RP/CP from another team and fill in 2B with another trade that includes prospects for a 2B (Like a young one).
Just some ideas :P
Higher average than JP
Hes gotta be worth something
I'd actually hold Hill on second thought
He won a silver slugger and was 12th in MVP voting just 2 short years ago.
Meanwhile his defense is nice
and he did not deserve MVP votes at all
and its ridiculous that he got the SS while there were obviously better candidates in Zobrist and Cano, and 2 slightly, slightly better candidates in Pedroia and Kinsler
COLBY RASMUS
you could make a legitimate argument against Zobrist for SS that year though
he only played 91 games there, however ridiculous he was. Cano was appreciably better than Hill too though, and doesn’t have the same qualifier
WAR... WAR never changes.
it was a good season, no doubt
but he wasn’t the 12th best player in the AL. not even close.
COLBY RASMUS
In House Issue
Main problem I have with going in house is the unreliabiltiy/unknown of our young pitchers. In a closing situation, its not just the stuff that matters, but the ability to put that stuff to good use, aka not choke. Do you really think its fair for young rookie pitchers to go through a trial by fire by tossing them into high leverage situations, especially int he AL East where you’re doubly punished for not throwing strikes?
but closing ISN'T HIGH LEVERAGE if you pitch well
if you don’t issue 2 lead off walks, the 9th isn’t any harder than the 8th or 7th.
COLBY RASMUS
but those two are heartless robots created for the sole purpose of pitching late innings!
I demand to be heard.
That would explain why the Braves we able to find 2 rookies to step into their high leverage (Venters pitches the 7th when its more high leverage too IIRC) and closer (Kimbrel).
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