Darin Mastroianni
by AErskine on Aug 6, 2011 8:21 AM EDT
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Does Darin Mastroianni fit any where in the current Jays plans? The Jays seem to have a glut of OFs (even CFs) in the minors. I forsee an OF of Rasmus-Gose-Bautista (Thames at DH). This would lead me to believe that Snider (unless he gets traded) is our 4th OF of the future. Where does this leave a guy like Mastroianni? Trade fodder? Career AAA?
This, of course, doesn't even mention the potential for a bit of a fan favourite like Adam Loewen; whom I used to see returning to the majors as our 4th.
Thoughts?
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thames is not a good enough hitter to be an everyday DH
i’d rather trust snider with that role
COLBY RASMUS
by Pikachu on Aug 6, 2011 10:04 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
If we are judging rookies by their initial season
Brett Lawrie will never be able to play MLB because of his glove.
not just his rookie season though
he’s always had a poor (but not as terrible as I oringally thought) walk rate, and a pretty bad strikeout rate. he has improved somewhat this year – how much of that is the PCL is up for discussion, though. I don’t think he has the power or contact skills to make up for his poor walk and K rates right now or in the future, though I’d love to be proven wrong. I think he could be a very good lefty bat off the bench/2 starts per week kind of guy, but I’m bearish on his chances of being a starting corner OF on a good team
WAR... WAR never changes.
Well
Lawrie did have worse strikeout rates than Thames in the minors, so if your going to make this argument then Lawrie shouldn’t be a Major Leaguer either.
His numbers also mirrored Lawries. The only real difference between Thames and Lawrie as far as minors go is that Thames walks more and Lawrie is 3 years younger.
I think Thames and Snider both have a place on this team, and Lawrie can easily be the next cornerstone playing 3B. All of them are so young that its hard to tell, you don’t get the true power until later years.
Your making age way to relevant
I’m not trying to put them on the same level (“I think Thames and Snider both have a place on this team, and Lawrie can easily be the next cornerstone”).
But I do think you are overvaluing age. If you look at WAR charts for a players career, it won’t always go up and peak around 30 then come back down. This isn’t a video game. More often than not it is unpredictable and commonly enough players can peak early in their career. So much luck is involved with baseball that a player may play above himself over a span of many years, or for a player like Snider to develop improper fundamentals at such a young age.
Its still too early to tell but age does matter to a degree. A 21 year old with the same numbers as a 24 year old, the 21 year old has more potential to be better.
What I’m trying to say is that you can’t sit here and tell me Lawrie is going to be our cornerstone AND that Thames can’t be a corner outfielder on a good team. The gap between them isn’t that great. I’m more arguing that you are undervaluing Thames than overvaluing Lawrie.
Lawrie > Thames but that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
yes, age is not a linear "potential" metric
but three years is a massive difference. most players are playing in A+ when they’re 21. the majority (or if not majority, a very significant minority) of players who are able to play significant time and hold their own at the Majors at 21 become very good players. players who do that at 24 just don’t turn into great players as often at all.
that’s not to say Thames will be bad and Lawrie will be great, but I very much agree with Pikachu – I think you’re greatly underestimating the significance of Lawrie already being able to hold his own (that’s a guess by me, but I don’t think an unwarranted one) at the Major League level at his age.
regarding the “not like a video game” comment (which is valid in some circumstances) – isn’t it just as likely that Thames peaked at 24 in AAA than Lawrie has for some reason peaked already too?
WAR... WAR never changes.
Again, I’m not disagreeing with you that Lawrie is a better prospect, or even a better player.
I think its just as impressive as Snider when he was 20 years young playing in the Majors. As you can see with him, he might have stood better as a 20 year old then than a 23 year old today. I’m not saying hes permanently regressed, I still have high hopes for Snider in the future, but hes a great example to Lawrie of what CAN happen.
Yes, I’m not going to be biased, it is equally as likely that Thames peaked as Lawrie. With that being said do you wanna bet on that and send them packing for a minor league career or trade them to a bad team to play 3B/LF? I think we give both time in the Majors and let them grow together until they prove otherwise.
I’m just unhappy that Thames is so widely regarded as a bad player when hes done nothing to lose his spot, and has the same resume as Lawrie with the only difference being age. I think both can be great ball players.
you can't just use present production for young players
you have to project for future performances, and scouts, the ones who are best at projecting performances (not saying they’re perfect), mostly agree that lawrie has superstar potential while Thames’ ceiling is a regular.
COLBY RASMUS
My point is
There is no science to it. And I bet next year more scouts will project Thames as a very capable player just based on his numbers and production.
I guess we will have to agree to disagree. You think that Thames career will be a well below average corner outfielder and I think he can be an above average corner outfielder. We won’t know who’s right for another 15 years :)
Do you really think this?
it is equally as likely that Thames peaked as Lawrie.
It’s clearly less likely that Lawrie has peaked yet as he’s younger and — as a general rule — players do follow aging curves. It’s certainly possible that Lawrie has peaked and Thames has not, but there’s no way it’s anywhere near as likely as the scenario under which Thames has peaked and Lawrie hasn’t. Realistically, Lawrie is still probably in the green phase of development, while Thames is in the growth phase. But, as you said, we don’t really know.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Thames is a college player
playing an even less important position than 3B, and only hitting as well as Lawrie but 3 years older. when Thames was Lawrie’s age he was a junior in college. there is absolutely no comparison between the two, Lawrie is a better prospect by leaps, bounds, and more leaps
WAR... WAR never changes.
Darin upside is 4th outfielder
Like Davis, he could be good as defensive replacement or pinch runner, you wouldn’t be too happy with him out there everyday.
by Tom Dakers on Aug 6, 2011 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Gose is not that close to starting in the Majors
he’s made nice strides and is passing the AA test, but a guy who OPSes .750 in AA isn’t good enough to start everyday in the AL East
WAR... WAR never changes.
Gose is definitely a few years away
if he can put all together. He’s still pretty raw but does have boat loads of potential to be an above average CFer.
by Baseball North on Aug 6, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I think he'll be a good player
but he’s not going to be ready before July 2012 at the absolute earliest
WAR... WAR never changes.
Definitely a few years away?
So what are you saying, that we should expect Gose around the 2015 season?
Yes, this I could see.
2014 means something like another full year at AA followed by about 2 more years at AAA.
although your mainly correct, i just like to point out that for a guy like Gose, ops isn’t that relevant. His whole game is based around speed and as such its more useful to look at obp instead.
okay
.358 OBA at AA still isn’t that good (though it’s certainly not bad), and he could still use some work in avoiding CSes, though he’s improved a great deal this year. even just looking at OBA, he’s not ready and still probably won’t be for a half season at the very least
WAR... WAR never changes.
I don`t think anyone is clamouring for him to come up.
He got screwed over in the Philly organization where he was told to slap and dash, so he hasn’t developed his hit tool. But he seems to have a good eye at the plate regardless.
Agree on the SB%, which is way up from last year – comparing CoPa to Davis. And he isn’t being moved from New Hamphire this year at all, AA wants this team to compete togather in the playoffs.
yeah, I think he'll be good
but the article seemed to think Gose will be starting in 2012, which is rather ludicrous to me
WAR... WAR never changes.
I could see him getting called up in September but not starting out of training camp or anything like that
I would love to see him moved up to AAA soon
I can see him making it up next September. No rush for him because Colby seems to be our guy for now.
as i said i agree with the comment
Gose is not even close to being ready. His numbers aren’t spectacular and they definitely wont translate to the al east. I’m just saying you cannot base those conclusions off of slugging percentage; that wont be his game.
I'm not actually sure about that though
his power has made a nice progression. you’re probably right that it won’t be his calling card, but I could see 15-20 homer seasons in his future.
(I don’t mean to be contrarian, so sorry if this is how my comments are coming off)
WAR... WAR never changes.
possibly but that would just be a bonus
my point was just he doesn’t need even an average slugging percentage in order to be an all star. so if its below average or his ops, which is entirely dependent upon slugging, is below average that doesn’t mean anything. For instance, if he made it to toronto and posted an ops of 750 that wouldn’t necessarily be a problem. He could have an obp of 400 which probably means like 80 sb which would be superstar level even though his slugging would be a pitiful 350. As an aside, 1B wallace is slugging 375. good trade aa.
good points
now that I look, his wOBA (which takes SBs into account I believe) is .362, which would be fantastic at CF
WAR... WAR never changes.
i don't think it does
wRC+ does, though. His wRC+ (123) would be amazing. At roughly the same age and level, Rasmus had his breakout season (152 wRC+)
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
wRC+ is +scaled wOBA, no?
and FanGraphs wOBA I’m pretty sure takes SBs into account, but I haven’t actually been able to find a definitive answer on the subject
WAR... WAR never changes.
According to Fangraphs glossary
Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/woba/
says nothing about baserunning or stolen bases.
Furthermore, click on the wOBA calculator and a spreadsheet comes up with the categories: nonintentional walk, hit by pitch, single, reach on error, double, triple, home run, plate appearance
So, no, wOBA does not take stolen bases into account.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
okay
I remember seeing on DRaysBay that FanGraphs wOBA took SBs into account – maybe with BSR they removed it? or DRB might have just been wrong all along. that’s for clearing that up for me
WAR... WAR never changes.
In 2009 Snider was the #6 ranked prospect in all of baseball
He’s only 23 and I’m willing to bet he’ll be starting in LF for the Jays for the next 5-10 years. I know it’s easy to write off Travis due to his recent performance but I think he’s too talented not to have a Lind type breakout season next year. If not next year, send em down again, he’s got another option left.
assuming he's going to rake in AAA
what’s there to learn in the Minors? that he can destroy crappy breaking stuff and 90 MPH four-seamers? if he hits well in AAA this year, there is absolutely nothing to be gained from optioning him down again in 2012. if for some reason 2011 wasn’t sink-or-swim, 2012 sure as hell should be
WAR... WAR never changes.
Maybe he hasn't really learned anything in the minors yet
He hasn’t really stayed at one level for a whole year. Maybe having one hitting coach where he can instill an approach at the plate would be good for him. They need to give him enough time at one level so the pitchers have enough time to make adjustments. That way he can practice making adjustments without letting his mechanics go to sh*t (no one-handed swings).
by Matthew Mueller on Aug 6, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
In fact, next year he'll be in the same position lind was during his breakout season
Fingers crossed
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
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