That Was Awful: Jays Lose to Red Sox
by Tom Dakers on Sep 14, 2011 12:58 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Game Recaps
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PrintAnother one of those games that we won't speak of again.
Brandon Morrow was equal parts bad and unlucky. In the first, he had runners on bases loaded with 2 outs, got the ground ball he needed to get out of the inning but David Cooper tossed it over his head, for a two run error. That's why they teach first baseman to throw underhand to the pitcher covering. In the second he game up a single and double to cost himself a run, then had a very iffy balk called against him, moving a runner from second to third, making the soft fly, he gave up next, a sac fly. The fourth inning was just bad with back to back home runs.
Luiz Perez relieved Brandon, with 1 on and 1 out in the 6th and was terrible, giving up 3 singles and a home run before being pulled without getting an out. Joel Carreno gave us a decent 1.2 innings. Brad Mills faced 3 batters to start the 8th without getting an out. Danny Farquhar followed him. I really wanted to see Farquhar get into a game. He did. It wasn't good. He gave up 3 hits and 2 walks, while getting 2 outs. Chad Beck mercifully came in and got the last out.
On offense, Jose Bautista hit his 42nd homer and J.P. Arencibia got his 23. David Cooper went 3 for 5 with 2 doubles. Eric Thames went 2 for 4. Edwin Encarnacion was 1 for 3 with 2 walks. McCoy, Loewen and Woodward had 0 fors.
Jay of the Day is Jose Bautista (.184 WPA). I'll give Morrow (-.419), Perez (-.187) and Loewen (-.112) get suckage numbers, though I'll forgive Loewen because he made an amazing catch running into the Red Sox bullpen fence, in right center. Just a great catch, when the game was still close enough for it to mean something. He might not be your prototype CF but he looked like one there. I'm going to give suckage awards to Mills and Farquhar too, they didn't get the number, because the game was out of reach before they came into it, but I figure if you give up 7 runs in an inning you deserve the award.
Tomorrow at 1:30 Eastern Ricky Romero (14-10) tries to get us a draw in the two game series. John Lackey (12-12, 6.30) goes for the Sox.
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"his 2-seamer"
I don’t believe that pitch exists. He throws 4-seamers, sliders, a few splitters, and he has a curve he almost never throws anymore.
I swear I saw him throw a curveball in the first inning
It was 81 mph and moved like a curve. It was the slowest pitch I saw all inning.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Figured… I really think he should look into adding that or a cutter. Or just his splitter more often. Something to induce weak contact.
by Sniderlover on Sep 14, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Thames also had a pretty good sliding catch in left field
Took the baseball, ran along the wall then tossed it to a man in military uniform, who then tossed it to a kid. Nice. (video here)
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer | 2011 Jays record while in attendance: 9-11 (.450)
Think about this
If there are pitchers whose true talent is to massively underperform their peripherals (being hittable), then they will often be out of the majors before there’s a meaningful sample for us “stat nerds” to work with. Morrow could be a rare “experiment” whose peripherals are so good that he still puts up a reasonable ERA despite being “hittable”.
I suppose it's time for me to ask what "peripherals" are.
I’ve seen the term used around here many times before, but this comment makes it obvious that I have no idea what it means.
The man in the white shirt.
All the things that contribute to the pitchers overall success
walk rate, strikeout percentage, home run frequency against, groundballs vs air outs, strike frequency.
Basically all the things that judge a pitches command, and ability to keep the ball in the park.
Peripheral
meaning ‘around the edges’
The periphery of a city is it’s outskirts and suburbs, the periphery of a baseball field is around the edges where it comes up against the stands, etc… In pitcher terms it’s that stuff around the edges that affects the core performance.
Well, it’s not just that he’s “hittable.” It’s that he gives up a lot of fly balls. This leads to HRs, which are taken into account in FIP, etc. But it also leads to other extra base hits, which are not. Instead of BABIP, have people looked at SLGBIP? I suspect Morrow fares rather poorly here.
his line drive rate against
is 3 points higher than his career number, which likely leads to more doubles. his GB rate is also down. pitchers don’t really have control over giving up singles or extra base hits besides if they give up FBs or GBs (or Ks)
Total Internet points: 10 000
Right
also, tRA assigns run-values to each batted-ball type and estimates ERA from that. Morrow’s tRA is 4.22, still way better than his ERA. fangraphs doesn’t have Men on / Bases Empty tRA splits, but tRA (as you imply) is largely a function of ld-rate and his ld-rate is much lower with runners on (20.1%) than with the bases empty (24.6%), so I imagine he’d actually grade out much better by tRA with runners on (considering his K- and BB-rates are similar.
Just goes to show how much noise there is in these data.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
his sequencing has just been so bad
might as well call him the Riddler for how enigmatic he is
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one of the absolutely most cheesily-named villains of all time
Edward Nigma
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
was going to right "E. Nigmatic"
but figured I could let the nerds figure it out
Total Internet points: 10 000
Hmmm, I guess you’re right. I now understand the arguments that Morrow has been unlucky. That said, an ERA of 4.22 (to use jessef’s number above) is not that great. While it’s fine for a typical member of the rotation, it’s nowhere near that of a #1 or #2 starter. Morrow has significant room for improvement.
by DavidLondon on Sep 14, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
you're right
but all his DIPS were significantly better last year, so it’s not like 4.22 ERA is his ceiling
Total Internet points: 10 000
right,
I actually meant to say tERA, which is different from tRA (tERA estimates ERA, tRA estimates “run average,” which is typically about half a run per nine innings greater than ERA, I believe). In either case, you have it right — the estimate of 4.22 is for ERA. Sorry if that was unclear
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I hear a lot about certain pitchers being the victims of "bad luck".
Why do guys like Halladay, Lee, Sabathia, Romero, Verlander, etc. rarely suffer from such “bad luck”? I’ve got to think there’s more to it than merely luck.
by Defense Counts! on Sep 14, 2011 8:55 AM EDT reply actions
it's not "luck"
but in large enough sample sizes with MLB pitchers, it’s rarely anything other than random variation
Total Internet points: 10 000
Ugly game last night, but a pair of decent articles about the Jays in the NYT
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/13/looking-up-in-the-standings-with-hope/
You can tell there's no competition with the Yankees
For such a warm and fuzzy article about the Jays. What happened to sign stealing and PED crap now?
by GettinGiggy on Sep 14, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Loewen's catch was amazing
Video —> http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19165029&c_id=tor
Can we start the Gose watch yet?
Another ugly one against the Sox
The Jays have not done particularly well against the top 3 teams in the East this year. Of the three, they’ve actually got a slightly better record against Boston. But when the jays have lost against Boston, they have gone all out. The Jays have a not terrible 7 – 10 record against Boston. But in the 10 losses the have now been outscored 97 – 21. That is incredible. I wouldn’t attach any meaning to it. I’m just fascinated by how badly we’ve been beaten (over and over again) by the Sox this year.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
I attach meaning to it...
losing big and winning close is not a sustainable route to a “near-.500” record.
I wouldn't
I would agree with you if that was the route they were going league wide. The Jays have outscored the rest of the league by a pretty significant margin. The Sox just seem to have their number this year.
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
-76 against Boston, +65 against every other team
To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong
Well
it worked this year!
On the other hand, let’s hope we’re far from .500 next year, on the upside!
On the bright side
Morrow should be available very late in fantasy drafts next year
-- Gravity is not just the law, it's also a good idea
YUS!!
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
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