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Prince/Reyes: How would they improve the Jays?

Riddle me this: How much better would life be with these sexy free agents?

I'm sort of winging it on the logic, but I think it's sound. I'm using stats from this year for simplicity's sake.

Prince Fielder

As of now, the Jays have
1B: .252/.295/.437, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 0.7 WAR (Adam Lind full season)
DH: .279/.337/.464, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 1.2 WAR (EE full season)

I'm assuming that Lind and EE go into a platoon situation at DH/1B, in which case the numbers become...

.265/.327/.484, 27 HR, 78 RBI (EE/Lind platoon, taking Lind vs righties, EE vs lefties)
.294/.407/.542, 32 HR, 109 RBI, 4.3 WAR (Prince on his own)

Conclusion.

Prince Fielder this year would have brought +.028 BA, +.107 OBP, +.125 SLG, +19 HR, +56 RBI, and I'm guessing around 5 WAR (depending on the platoon).

The worry is that Fielder will decline rapidly due to his being overweight, and that Scott Boras will demand a contract that outlives his peak years. The best guy for a comparison would probably be Fielder's father. Cecil really hit his decline around age 34. An unscientific bird's eye view says that Cecil didn't carry his weight as well as Prince, and the fact is that Cecil was also heavier.

Prince has been the definition of health throughout his career, and it is conceivable that he could play out a 7-year contract. The more I think about it, the more I absolutely love the potential signing, and although I'd feel iffy about giving him more than 5 years, I think the risk is worth the potential reward.



Jose Reyes

I'm not letting this one go just yet! I still think that he'd move to 2B for the right price. And there just aren't guys like him in the league.

As of now

.211/.292/.408, 20 HR, 54 RBI, 0.4 WAR (Kelly Johnson)
or
.241/.286/.343, 7 HR, 55 RBI, 0.8 WAR (Aaron Hill)

Becomes

.331/.374/.484/5 HR, 39 RBI, 36 SB, 4.7 WAR (in spite of missing more than a month)

Conclusion

Taking the best of both KJ and Hill, Jose Reyes brings +.090 BA, +.082 OBP, +.076 SLG and +3.9 WAR

Reyes isn't as cut and dry as Fielder. He has been injury prone over the last few years, and he is having a career year. There's also the possibility that KJ will rebound to his 4 WAR season of 2010.

That said, Reyes is arguably the best leadoff hitter in the game after Jacoby Ellsbury, even in a normal year (which is around .285/.350/.430), and as much as I like our current leadoff hitter, Yunel is more of a number two guy.

Reyes might have commanded a Carl Crawford-esque deal had he not gotten hurt in the summer. I'd like to see them sign Reyes, but not for more than 5 years, 18 mil per.

Other iffy thing about Reyes is that the Yankees and Red Sox would be more likely join in on the bidding war.



Other FA Notes

CJ Wilson: He'll stay with the Rangers or go to the Yankees. I wouldn't want to outbid them for him. Biggest SP on market will command WAY more than he's worth.

Yu Darvish: *shrugs*. I trust in AA on this one.

Albert Pujols: Wouldn't it be nice? He'll re-sign before hitting free agency though.

Jonathan Papelbon: He'll command way more than any RP is worth.

Francisco Cordero: I mentioned this in another thread, but I actually like the potential of this. Cordero is Type A, and will probably not be offered arbitration by the Reds, since he made $12 million this year. Cordero will be 37 next year, and if he's willing to agree to a 1 or 2 year deal, I'd say snap him up!



Anyhoo, dissect away.


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