80 wins not 82 wins please (+poll)
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 2, 2011 4:20 PM EDT
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PrintIt seems as though our destiny is to finish around 0.500 . Have you ever seen a team that stayed so close to 0.500 all season long?
Providing that we are going to win half of our games we might as well get a protected pick out of the deal. The teams that finish in the bottom 15 positions in the standings have their first round pick protected. For the Jays this means that if they sign Prince Fielder, Heath Bell, etc the first pick they would give up would be in the 70's instead of in the 16-20 range. It also makes it more likely that we would sign a Type A free agent.
Another benefit is that it makes fringe Type A free agents more appealing. The Jays could sign a Type A reliever similar to Jason Frasor was last year for example. There is less competition for those free agents and you can still project getting a compensation round pick from them later on (and maybe another pick too if they remain Type A at the end of the contract). The fringe Type A's should also be better players than the Type B's we've been signing in recent years.
Not that I am cheering against the Jays mind you, but every loss does have a silver lining. I hope we win the rest of our games but still finish below 0.500--although that might be mathematically difficult.
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Well (if I counted right), currently we are exactly in 15th spot.
Finishing below .500 doesn’t necessarily guarantee that we will be in the bottom 15 positions in the league though. It makes it rather likely, yes, but doesn’t guarantee it.
Here are the win totals of the 16th place team since 2001:
2010 – Oakland – 81
2009 – Chicago Cubs – 83
2008 – Arizona – 82
2007 – LA Dodgers – 82
2006 – Texas – 80
2005 – Washington – 81
2004 – Florida – 83
2003 – Arizona – 84
2002 – Florida – 79
2001 – NYM – 82
Right now the Jays are in 15th place in the mlb standings We were 2 games “behind” the Reds before tonights’ games.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 3, 2011 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
If there is a tie the tie is broken based on last year’s standings. We don’t have much chance in the event of a tie but we do have an advantage in that we play in the AL East. This gives us a much more “favorable” schedule.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 3, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
This poll is asking, empirically, whether or not we want the team to win.
What kind of a question is that?
His midi-chlorian count is through the roof!
I know I enjoy watching my favorite baseball team win.
Honestly.
His midi-chlorian count is through the roof!
by hampsterman22 on Sep 3, 2011 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Me too but if it is close I sure wouldn’t mind a protected pick, especially if it means a better team for 2012.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 3, 2011 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I enjoy watching my favourite baseball team get better players in the draft
MLB All-Stars between picks 16-30
2000: 1
2001: 0
2002: 3
2003: 3
2004: 1
2005: 1
Sure the draft is a crap shoot but you could potentially be giving up a 1 in 5 chance at an all-star (I would say due to more recent advances in scouting and stats the draft is less of a crapshoot nowadays) just for 2 or 3 nights where you can be a little bit happier because they “won” (I call it losing, long term anyways)
I wouldn’t mind seeing David Cooper start first base every game for the rest of the year if you catch my drift.
The only problem with tanking it is what if FAs don't want to go to a losing team
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 3, 2011 10:15 PM EDT reply actions
Please
They go to where the money is.
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
I think he means Fielder or Pujols, although it’s still a pipe dream, I’m sure they would want to go for a good team rather than a bad team, kinda like how Thome wanted to go to Philly but accepted the waiver to cleveland instead
by Qd6 on Sep 4, 2011 4:39 AM EDT up reply actions
werth went to washington
though they paid a crapload for him
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Werth is the worst possible outlier
The bottom line is if you have an elite talent (Pujols, Fielder, Reyes, etc) where 3 or 4 teams are offering you a lot of money, other factors such as the team’s potential to win, location of the team, relationships with other players on team, etc. factor into the decision.
Look at Weaver. He just signed a large extension with the Angels instead of going to free agency because he wanted to stay on the west coast.
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 4, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
why is werth an outlier?
he was an elite-ish talent, was covetted by many teams, and a non-contender paid overload to get him.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
He did have 3 consecutive 5 WAR seasons though.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 4, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
at age 29, 30, 31
its an example of a non-contender playing way above market for a very good but not elite player entering his decline
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=1327&playerid3=4613&playerid4=1177&playerid5=4314
Here is the WAR grid of Werth, Pujols, Fielder, and Votto. Werth wasn’t anywhere close to the other at a similar age.
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 4, 2011 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Nope
He is too old and that contract is for too many years and too much money. also its not like the Jays were one piece away this past off-season
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 4, 2011 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
wasn't saying he was
pointing out that FA will go where the money is
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Toronto isn’t a bad team. Skydome is a nice play to hit too.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 4, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
The Jays are in the 15th
draft position now
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 5, 2011 8:06 AM EDT reply actions
Yay!
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
and still not make the playoffs!
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I want them to get 5th place in the AL
That way when Paul and Alex go to Rogers and say “we think we can grab the wild card (expanded or not) if you let us sign Pujols or Fielder” Rogers will be more inclined to believe them. If you try to say I think we can go from 15th worst to a playoff team when much of the core is staying it becomes more difficult IMO.
I just could not let this pass
Does everybody think that this is how you develop a winning attitude with our young players? By losing games? Do we want players who actually compete? Who care about winning? Or are they just placeholders till someone better comes along? I think that this “lose so we get better draft placing” is absolutely PATHETIC. I could not be a fan of a team who doesn’t want to win as much as possible. Glad the manager doesn’t share this illusion that the more you lose the better you get.
by The commentator formerly known as Yoda on Sep 8, 2011 11:13 PM EDT reply actions
I’m not suggesting they try to lose, just hoping they finish in a protected position rather than finishing 1 or 2 wins away from it.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 9, 2011 2:32 AM EDT up reply actions
losing
although I will never cheer for the other team, I am hoping they finish in bottom 15 in league so their 1st round is protected.
this team needs a major upgrade at pitching and cj wilson, darvish, carpenter, or sabathia.
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