Predicting 5 Blue Jays prospects who will get a 2012 call up
by m1tch on Sep 21, 2011 1:44 AM EDT
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PrintIf a top prospect gets called up to the bigs, it's a big deal. Whether they make the team out of spring training, or get called up in September, it's an exciting time for the fans, the front office, and especially for the player. This is my prediction of who will join the Blue Jays in The Show for the 2012 season.
Deck McGuire, Starting Pitcher: The Jays drafted Deck eleventh overall in the 2010 draft, and there's no arguing it was a smart draft pick for the Blue Jays. This right-hander started the 2011 season with the Advanced-A Dunedin squad, and finished the year with New Hampshire Fishercats of the Double-A Eastern League.
2011 Advanced-A stats: 7-4 win/loss; 104.2 IP; 2.75 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; 102 K; 38 BB
2011 Double-A stats: 2-1 win/loss; 20.2 IP; 4.35 ERA; 1.31 WHIP; 22 K; 7 BB
Travis d'Arnaud, Catcher: Travis came to the Blue Jays with Kyle Drabek as part of the trade that sent long time Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay to the Philadelphia Phillies. He has an above average arm behind the plate, and is more than able to be an outstanding defender in the Big Leagues. He has a fast bat, a lot of power, and a very respectable on-base percentage.
2011 Double-A stats: 114 G; .311 AVG; 21 HR; 78 RBI; .371 OBP; .542 SLG; .914 OPS
Anthony Gose, Centre Field: Anthony Gose is like what Rajai Davis would be like if he had the eye at the plate needed to have an OBP that isn't laughable. Gose is a plus runner, a plus hitter, and a plus defender; he's everyone's dream CF. He was with the Blue Jays for 2010 Spring Training, and made a good impression, going 9-for-10 in stolen base attempts. Look for him in the Jays leadoff spot sometime next season.
2011 Double-A stats: 137 G; .253 AVG; 16 HR; 59 RBI; .349 OBP; .415 SLG; .763 OPS
Adeiny Hechavarria, Shortstop: Hechavarria is, without a doubt, a fantastic defender. He has one of the best gloves at his position in the entire minor leagues. The Blue Jays moved him up to Triple-A from Double-A, fairly late in the season, but he earned it. With his defensive abilities, and his decent batting skills (which should improve quickly), he should be with the Jays at some point next season, and probably their full time SS when Yunel Escobar retires or is traded.
2011 Double-A stats: 111 G; .235 AVG; 6 HR; 46 RBI; 275 OBP; 347 SLG; 622 OPS
2011 Triple-A stats: 25 G; .389 AVG; 2 HR; 11 RBI; .431 OBP; .537 SLG; .968 OPS
Drew Hutchison, Starting Pitcher: This 2009 15th rounder has surprised everyone with his outstanding 2011 season. He started the year with the Lansing Lugnuts of the Single-A Midwest League, was promoted to Advanced-A Dunedin, and finished the year with Double-A New Hampshire; he pitched extremely well with all three teams. He even struck out A-Rod a few times while the Yankees 3rd base was on a rehab assignment in the minors. Don't be surprised one bit if he's in The Show at some point next season.
2011 Single-A stats: 6-2 win/loss; 72.0 IP; 2.63 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; 84 K; 19 BB
2011 Advanced-A stats: 5-3 win/loss; 62.1 IP; 2.74 ERA; 0.90 WHIP; 66 K; 14 BB
2011 Double-A stats: 3-0 win/loss; 15.0 IP; 1.20 ERA; 0.80 WHIP; 21 K; 2 BB
If you think someone else will be getting a call up, leave a comment or reply to me on Twitter @mitchell_jj.
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…and probably their full time SS when Yunel Escobar retires…
I would hope he doesn’t have to wait 7 years get regular playing time :p
Anyway, nice first post. Welcome out from the shadows.
"The AL Beast" was an intelligent pun the first time it was used. That time was not at any point in the last 5 years. JUST STOP.
2012/Offseason-related FanPost tally since September 1: 7
I second that, it was a good post
I agree on most of these except maybe Gose, I think another pitcher, probably Jenkins makes his Jays debut (unless he’s traded in the offseason). Pitchers usually rise faster through the minors and I think Gose is a one year at each level guy. D’Arnaud I could see in September since I think he has to be added to the 40 man this offseason but he’ll likely spend most of the year at AAA. Hech probably gets a September callup too, unless there’s an injury. I think he’ll push Escobar to 2B so we don’t have to worry about him being traded or retiring.
I agree on McGuire and probably Hutch. Molina might see some time too. I think Jenkins and McGuire are the first callups if any of the starters go down.
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Thanks! My first post, glad it was good enough to not make you feel depressed :P
And yeah, been hearing a lot of people say when Hech gets the call, they may move scobar to 2B.
Welcome to BBB!
and yes, I also think this will happen.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
Barring injury, all of these guys could be September call ups. I don’t see any of them getting the call earlier unless there is a rash of injuries in one position.
If AA unloads Rajai, Gose only gets called up if Rasmus suffers a major injury. I think that the Jays would use Snider or Loewen (if he’s back) in CF for short term replacement.
Travis is the most likely to move up early but it would take an injury to JPA or the backup catcher to make it happen.
Hech is blocked right now by a very good player. He only moves up early if Escobar suffers a significant injury. McCoy can man the position for a couple of weeks if need be.
All of the pitchers have only been pitching AA for a limited time. Barring substantial injuries and AA not acquiring a starter or two via free agency or trade, I don’t see any of them coming up before September. Also, they have to compete with Molina and Jenkins for the promotion.
Molina has also been pitching AA for a limited time
I don’t think any of them (Hutch, Molina, the other AA guys) get even September callups except maybe Jenkins and McGuire, since the other guys will probably need to be shut down around 150 innings IIRC
Hutch threw 150 innings this year
So he will probably be up at least as a September call-up, though if injuries/poor performance hit he may get called up the same way Alvarez was this year to finish the year in the majors.
Agree that it is not that likely that McGuire (125IP) and Molina (130IP) have enough innings that if they stay healthy can be a September call-up, though I would not be too surprised to see one of them get a spot start at some point in the same way Zack Stewart did this year.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Sep 21, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
they let him throw 150 innings???
he threw SIXTY EIGHT pro innings in 2010 (unless I’m missing some short season ball or something)
You're forgetting the innings he threw in the instructional league
Those count too, but they’re not widely available to the public, Jays management would know how many innings total that he threw.
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Based on the typical 120% rule of thumb
Mcguire should be shut down at about 150
Molina should be able to throw 155
Hutch could throw about 180
Jenkins could throw over 200 innings!
I think these are implemented incorrectly. For example, a pitcher could throw 20% more innings without throwing more pitches if their pitching improves. Conversely, a he could also throw 40% more pitches if his pitching gets worse. Why do they use inning counts to measure wear and tear for a season when they wouldn’t do that for a single game?
Imagine Roy Halladay throwing 250 innings and Brian Tallet throwing 150 innings. Who has thrown more pitches?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 22, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I assume that internally they do in fact track total pitches in addition to IP, and that the 120% rule is just to make it external-user-friendly because its a good approximation most of the time.
"The AL Beast" was an intelligent pun the first time it was used. That time was not at any point in the last 5 years.
I would think so too. I just see IP used all the time and I don’t think it is a reliable indicator of a pitcher’s relative workload.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 22, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Here are some others I could see getting called up next year.
| 51.0 IP | 10.74 K/9 | 3.71 BB/9 | 0.53 HR/9 | 2.83 FIP | 2.19 GO/AO |
Ronald Uviedo – 24 year old, pitched 24 games for the Las Vegas 51’s, and 26 for the Fisher Cats both in a bullpen role. Not a great year for Uviedo, but he has always been a soft spot for me. Good peripherals, and he did a pretty good job in the games he did pitch in the playoffs for the Fisher Cats.|| 73.2 IP | 10.01 K/9 | 3.41 BB/9 | 0.97 HR/7 | 3.60 FIP | 0.69 GO/AO |
Moises Sierra – 22 year old, played Right Field for the Fisher Cats. A good season for Moises in the pitcher friendly Eastern League, although not showing a much power as you would assume from his body type. In general, Moises is a pretty good athletic, runs okay, plus plus arm, and very raw power.| 495 AB’s | 137 H | 40 XBH | 39 BB/93 SO | 16 SB/14 CS | .277 AVG | .778 OPS |
Alan Farina – 24 year old, pitching for the Fisher Cats in a bullpen role.Alan pitched very few innings in New Hampshire this year due to injury, but the Blue Jays like him, very good history in the minors. Alan has the ability to strikeout a handful of batters, in 2010 he a ton of groundballs, terrific GO/AO ratio, but wasn’t able to do the same thing in his low number of innings in 2011.
| 17.1 IP | 8.31 K/9 | 3.63 BB/9 | 1.04 HR/9 | 4.07 FIP | 0.50 GO/AO |
Sean Henn – 30 year old, pitching for Las Vegas this year. Sean is one of the odd guys where I don’t get why he hasn’t gotten an opportunity with this club? Sean had a very nice year pitching in the PCL, good FIP, could cut down on walks, but strikes out his fair share of batters.| 61.1 IP | 8.95 K/9 | 4.26 BB/9 | 0.44 HR/9 | 3.31 FIP | 1.43 GO/AO |
Mike McDade is also a possibility, but I don’t really wanna have to do another one…so that is it for now, and also, I don’t really want the Jays to rush Drew Hutchison to the big leagues, but if he is dominating like Henderson Alvarez was in Double-A this year, then why not!
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
Crawford and Uviedo maybe get a callup, relievers usually get called up frequently
Henn is organizational depth. It wouldn’t be his big-league debut either as he is a former Yankees prospect and has pitched for them and I think the Orioles as well. He used to be a good prospect, could touch 100 mph from the left side but never could put it together, got injured and doesn’t throw as hard anymore.
Farina had Tommy John surgery this year, so it’s unlikely he plays for the Jays next year.
I think Sierra gets a full year at AAA like Gose. The outfield is crowded and it would take several injuries to the OF to see him up unless it’s in September.
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I could imagine Gose forcing himself into the lineup next year. I could also imagine him struggling and only becoming a 4th outfielder in 2013.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 22, 2011 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree. With the pitching depth we’ve got in the minors I’d think several will see time with the Jays next year coming out of the pen and getting a taste for big league ball before serious contention in 2013.
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