Were We Wild and Young? - Angels 10, Jays 6
by hugo on Sep 21, 2011 1:49 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Game Recaps
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Tough loss today against the Angels of Anaheim.
On the Mound:
Brett Cecil started great, striking out the side in the first. However, old friend Vernon Wells took him yard in the 2nd. Cecil started the third well with two quick outs, but then was totally unable to get the third. The Angels strung a number of well-hit balls together in the 2nd and took advantage of a walk to drop three more runs on him, capped off by a Vernon Wells ground-rule double. Cecil did finally manage to get the last out in the 3rd, but that was it for him. A poor start for Cecil, he was throwing strikes but doesn't appear to have been locating them well at all, and leaving too many balls up hurt him.
At the Plate:
The Jays were in a hole early and while they were able to muster some offense later in the game, it wasn't enough to get them back into it. Colby Rasmus and Mike McCoy had the only extra base hits, both doubles, but Rasmus also struck out twice. Kelly Johnson reached three times (actually four if you count him reaching on an error once), as did Eric Thames. Edwin Encarnacion got the Jays off to a good start with an RBI single in the first, and added a sac fly later.
From the Pen:
Kyle Drabek was even worse than Cecil, giving up 6 runs in just two innings, on 7 hits and a walk, including a steal of home by Erick Aybar (which I missed - was it cool?). He didn't strike anybody out, and wasn't getting the ball down, either. He was hurt by a costly error, but didn't help himself either.
After Drabek things got better. Joel Carreno, Shawn Camp, and Danny Farquhar combined to blank the Angels for the second half of the game. Too bad they were in such a drastic hole. Carreno was particularly good in his two scoreless innings, striking out 3 and walking none, and giving up just one single.
In the Field:
Mike McCoy, who got the start at shortstop and did quite well at the plate, made a costly error. I'll chalk it up to Peter Bourjos' insane speed, but I think McCoy is stretched at short in the majors.
No Jays of the Day. Cecil takes the Towers and Drabek gets whatever we call the reliever one.
Title from the new Ryan Adams song "Lucky Now" which I am a bit surprised to find myself enjoying. No, Tom, not Bryan Adams. I know you are old and all those letters look the same, but they are different guys.
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Seems SBNation is a bit confused by all the letters too...
Title from the new Ryan Adams song
"The AL Beast" was an intelligent pun the first time it was used. That time was not at any point in the last 5 years. JUST STOP.
2012/Offseason-related FanPost tally since September 1: 7
Steal of home?
Looked like an attempt at suicide aqueeze + wild pitch = runner scored.
So, Drabek is still awful as I suspected. But dang, Carreno is pretty darn good!
It was exactly as it looked like
The batter completely whiffed on the bunt attempt but the ball bounced away from JP, had no chance to stop Aybar from scoring (who would have been caught in no man’s land otherwise). Not cool at all.
by TakeoutArtist on Sep 21, 2011 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I know we shouldn’t overanalyze or draw conclusions from only one game, but this one seemed to be a microcosm of the present Blue Jays situation, and points to the direction that AA will have to move in.
With the addition of Rasmus and Johnson, the Jays offense is okay. There are further moves that can be made — improving 1B/DH, and definitely improving the bench — but huge changes are not necessary. The place where the Jays clearly have problems is in the starting rotation. Cecil has lost his effectiveness and, more to the point, appears to have lost the confidence of Farrell. I wouldn’t be surprised if he were moved this winter. Drabek is clearly not ready for the majors. So this means that, at present, the starting rotation for 2012 looks like Romero, Morrow, McGowan, Alvarez, ??. Hardly a rotation that will even allow the Jays to move up in the standings, let alone approach contendership. There are several promising pitching prospects in the minors, but they are still a couple of years away, so if AA waits for them to be ready, Bautista’s time may have passed. So it might be time to package some of them in a trade for starting pitching (and not of the caliber of Jojo Reyes).
I love you say we shouldn't overanalyze or draw conclusions from one game
and then throw that completely reasonable statement out the window and decide to call the a game the Blue Jays lost 10-6 a “microcosm” for a season in which they have a winning record.
Brett Cecil, since returning to the rotation, prior to last night:
96 1/3 IP: 68 K, 27 BB, 3.83 ERA. So, no, he hasn’t lost the confidence of Farrell. If he’s moved, it will be because the team can good value for a lefty starter who has shown some promise and success in the toughest division in baseball that is still under team control for several years.
Yes, Bautista is way over the hill. He’s only hit .278 / .421 / .574 since 1 July. Since 1 August, .257 / .420 / .535.
And no one thought that Kyle Drabek was ready to return to the rotation fulltime yet. I still think he gets a chance to earn a spot this Spring.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
C’mon, jessef, I was analyzing the Blue Jays’ present situation. And you have not entirely accurately represented what I said:
— the Blue Jays record is about .500. IOW, they are so-so. If they want to move up in the standings, they have to improve. So where will the improvement come from?
— yes, I’m speculating that Cecil has lost the confidence of Farrell. I’m extrapolating from the fact that he was pulled after only 3 innings and 65 pitches.
— nowhere did I say that Bautista is over the hill. I did say that he is not likely to be as good a hitter in 2-3 years.
— fine, Drabek will compete for a spot next spring. But there is nothing to indicate that he is anywhere close to major-league ready.
Sorry if it felt like i was picking on you
your post just seemed unnecessarily negative.
1) You’re right that the Jays need to improve next year. Johnson (if he returns) over Hill at 2B is likely to be improvement. Lawrie over Nix/EE at third is likely improvement. Some combination of Lind2012 / E**3 / free agent at first is likely improvement over Lind’s production this season (even if Lind continues to start, as hugo and benk have pointed out, his babip should regress some based on his batted ball profile). Rasmus2012 over Davis / Patterson / Rasmus2011. They can make some low-cost signings in the bullpen (e.g., Frasor — realistically, just about anything would be better than Rauch2011) to improve there. Another year of growth for the young starters would help (though Romero likely won’t have as good of a season next year).
2) You’ve totally speculated that Cecil’s lost Farrell’s confidence. A more conservative viewpoint is that Farrell realized he was having a bad game and he wanted to get Drabek some innings, so he pulled him.
3) You said “Bautista’s time may have passed.” You did not say he was still an exceptional hitter, just one who is “not likely to be as good a hitter in 2-3 years” I wouldn’t disagree with that part. Pretty much no one is as likely to be as good a hitter in 2-3 years as Bautista is today.
4) You are fooling yourself if you don’t think Kyle Drabek is at least close to being major league ready. He made a few nice starts last year and had a very nice spring (as well has having a nice start sprinkled in here and there before being sent down). That’s not saying he is there, but to think he isn’t anywhere close is wrong.
2010 Kyle Drabek, AA: tRA: 4.34, lgtRA: 4.96
2011 Henderson Alvarez, AA: tRA: 4.10, lgtRA: 4.80
Yes, he’s taken a step back, but he was just as good in 2010 as Alvarez was this year (albeit, at a slightly older age, though Drabek had to come back from Tommy John surgery so there’s that). To be honest, I see no reason to think it can’t be corrected with an offseason to clear his head and be prepared to win a job out of Spring.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by jessef on Sep 21, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I was thinking a similar thought about Drabek last night about taking the offseason to clear his head
He has the stuff to succeed. Drabek’s problems more than anything else seem to be mental. If he starts to get hit around, he loses his composure. I actually think this season was good for him, he got beat around a bit and hopefully he learns that he needs to adjust to big league hitters and keep his cool on the mound. He can take the offseason to refocus, maybe talk with his dad and come back to spring training reinvigorated. We usually learn more from our failures than our successes.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I also thinks this applies to the other pitchers as well in regard to adversity
Cecil and Morrow have needed to make adjustments this year. Cecil needed to learn how to adjust for when the velocity isn’t there. Morrow had to learn to mix a 3rd pitch in more often. Finally McGowan has had to deal with a long rehab. I think this will make them all tougher by facing some setbacks. I bet we see an improved starting rotation next year (as always, health permitting). As for Alvarez, he’s going to face his own problems if he doesn’t keep working on his slider.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
mainly
why it somehow predicts substantially higher ERAs than do xFIP or SIERA for Brandon Morrow (extreme FB pitcher) as well as both Ricky Romero (extreme GB pitcher) and Hendo (extreme GB pitcher)
okay
first of all, tRA (from statcorner) is slightly different from tERA (from fangraphs). tRA estimates run average (including unearned runs), whereas tERA estimates only earned run average. From what I remember, unearned runs generally come to about 0.50 runs per 9 innings (obviously, this depends somewhat on the pitcher, but that’s just a vague, general estimate — so if you want to adjust a tRA to an ERA without going to fangraphs (for whatever reason), I think you can knock about a half a run off).
So if you’re asking why league-average tRA is so high, it’s because it’s not estimating ERA. If you’re asking why league-average tERA is so high, I’m not sure. Maybe they aren’t adjusting it properly.
As long as the specific questions:
tRA / tERA is a run / earned run average estimator based on strikeouts, walks, homeruns (I believe), and a pitcher’s batted ball profile. Since, as you pointed out, league-average tERA is quite high (4.11, as opposed to lg-avg ERA, 3.75), you have to keep that in mind when seeing how tERA estimates the ERA for the pitchers mentioned. That said . . .
Morrow — the reason tRA (and tERA) estimate Morrow high is because his linedrive%, which is out-of-this-world-high at 22.5% this year. I doubt it will stay that high, of course, but that’s neither here nor there, it’s simply the reason that tRA estimates his run average where it does.
Romero — his tRA is high based on his bad HR/fly-rate (12.7%), which xFIP normalizes, and his low popup-rate (5.3%; popups are just about as good as strikeouts in tRA). Also, it assumes that Romero has thrown way fewer innings than he has based on his low babip, which xFIP does not account for.
Alvarez — basically the same as Romero . . . high HR/fly-rate, low popup-rate, slightly below league-average babip.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Just a quibble: in my original post, I said “There are several promising pitching prospects in the minors, but they are still a couple of years away, so if AA waits for them to be ready, Bautista’s time may have passed.” I did not say simply that “Bautista’s time may have passed.”
by DavidLondon on Sep 21, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Another area to improve
is the team defense. That would help the pitching staff a lot. In particular, a better outfield defense would help out Morrow given his fly ball tendencies.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
wow, that reply went right to the bottom…
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
you're right
but besides Thames → Snider, what are we going to do about it? Snider’s a good defensive corner OF and Thames is bad, but Bats isn’t going anywhere and Rasmus (who’s probably decent) likely isn’t either
Gose and Hech will help a lot eventually (hopefully). Even though our players are good enough offensively they might not be good enough overall.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
but Gose might not be that close
I dunno if he’ll be ready in 2012, and Rasmus’ bat likely doesn’t play in a corner spot anyway. I know Hech is supposed to literally be a wizard, but Yunel is very good defensively and we don’t know if Hech will ever hit. I know our fielding isn’t great, but the improvement of JPA coupled with replacing Thames with Snider (I hope…) should make us a solidly slightly-above-average defensive team. we definitely need to upgrade one or both of our pitching and offense to compete, though
Rasmus’ bat likely doesn’t play in a corner spot anyway.
I’m not sure I agree with this. I see you used the word “likely”, but a 132 OPS+ (with presumably good RF or LF defence) seems pretty acceptable from a corner outfield spot.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
From a WAR component he would have less positional value but he should get some of that back in defensive value. ie: He would be an above average defensive corner Outfielder.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions
his career number is 106 wRC+
which is about Eric Thames (though presumably with much better defense). that said, given how highly touted Rasmus has been for ages, he’s likely to get better. but right now, I don’t think Gose in CF and Rasmus in RF is the best idea
Rasmus would arguably have more value
on the trade market in that situation than he would in right
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
It is a bit of a small sample size for UZR but it doesn’t feel wrong either.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions
It's why I think Snider gets the LF spot next year
Thames has some serious defensive work to do to avoid being a DH.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
It might explain Keith Law's assessment of Thames
Described him as “just a guy” which means his ceiling is a 4th OF/part time player. I’m not seeing much that makes me disagree. His d isn’t good and he doesn’t walk enough. He makes decent contact, so he might hit for an ok average and he has some pop. He also strikes out a lot. That’s ok for a starter for a weaker team but that won’t work in the AL East unless he’s a bench guy.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
yeah
unless he drastically changes his approach while maintaining good contact rates, he just looks like a really good injury replacement to me
he could be a decent platoon outfielder
Frank Catalanotto had a pretty good major league career with less power (though much better on-base skills)
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Just to point out: at the moment, he is average offensively for LF in the AL.
by DavidLondon on Sep 21, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
But how does he compare defensively?
LF in the AL seems to be trending more toward the defensive side although there are still some decent hitters too. Off the top of my head, Thames is much worse defensively than Gardner, Crawford, Hamilton, Wells and Jennings
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I don’t know. I don’t think we have any reliable defensive metrics. He’s clearly quite poor. But in any case, just how much can LF defense be worth?
by DavidLondon on Sep 21, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
in a small sample
he has been awful. Adam Dunn has lost teams 3 wins with his LF defense. Thames is not Adam Dunn, but his UZR (again, small sample) and DRS predict him to be worth almost -2 wins over a season.
that’s how much.
LF defence is important with a flyball pitcher on the mound
Less so with a groundballer. Morrow would be better served with a good defensive LF, Romero less so.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Whoa, just looked up LF leaders on Fangraphs
Of LF with a minimum of 250 innings played, Thames is 2nd worst, ahead of only Felix Pie. Snider and Patterson are both ahead of Thames as well as noted OF butchers like Delmon Young and Luke Scott. Yikes. On the bright side, Snider is 7th best.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
True.
But considering the euphoria that came with his arrival in Toronto, and the impression that he should be considered a core piece, I am somewhat shocked that people are already making plans for moving him out of CF or out of Toronto (not saying anyone here specifically, just the general point).
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Gose is still a year or two away at best
He might also bust, as some prospects do. If Gose is ready after next year and Rasmus is playing well in CF, it’s a nice problem to have but it’s not a problem for the Jays next year.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Lawrie
was supposed to have a full year in AAA and was ready in June. You never know when or if a prospect will turn the corner.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Lawrie wasn't blocked at his position though
Gose has competition for CF. The Jays will give Rasmus a shot first.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
If Gose is truly ready he will have a position. His defense is probably better than Rasmus’s right now so it would make more sense for Rasmus to move.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
It could happen but it's highly unlikely that Gose is ready
Not everybody is Brett Lawrie. The consensus from the scouting community was that Lawrie’s biggest strength was his bat and that it would play anywhere in the majors almost immediately, his glove was always the question. Gose is the opposite, the glove is ready, but there are still questions about the bat. He needs repetitions to get the bat right and that’s why he’ll probably stick in AAA for the whole year.
Plus, the Jays need to evaluate what kind of CF Rasmus is. He was great defensively his first year but the defensive numbers have dropped off. Also, they need to see if his bat will adjust to the AL. He’ll get a long look next year. There’s no need to rush Gose.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I like defense because it improves the pitching and isn’t as inconsistent as offensive value. I would rather have above average defense at every position. Rasmus is close to average in CF but would be above average at corner OF.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
look at UZR, DRS, TZL
I know they’re imperfect but they’re the best we have. plenty of inconsistency in defensive players too
The fluctuation in the metrics would be due to their imprecision, no? Good defensive players are pretty much always good unless they become injured or old. There are fluctuations of course but not nearly as much as the offensive ones.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
For example, do you ever say of a player, “He’s lost range this week, I hope he has better range next week”?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Players pick up minor injuries here and there all the time
If there was a way to quantify defence as simply and as accurately as we can batting average and other offensive stats, I’m sure there’d be SSS fluctuations.
"The AL Beast" was an intelligent pun the first time it was used. That time was not at any point in the last 5 years. JUST STOP.
2012/Offseason-related FanPost tally since September 1: 7
Yes, but do you think it would be to the same degree as offensive fluctuations?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Do players have bad/good defensive seasons to the same degree as bad offensive seasons. Players make more or less errors over certain periods of time. The biggest component of most defensive positions is range however. I don’t think a players range fluctuates that much.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
For example, I could tell you without looking at any stats that Bautista’s 1st half was much better offensively than his 2nd half.
Can you name someone who had better defensive range in either half of the season and especially to the same degree as Bautista’s offensive fluctuation?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
a) no I can't because I don't follow the stats that closely
and b) we know that there is a tonne of statistical variation (random noise) inherent in metrics so even if I could find a player like that, it would neither prove my point nor yours
but over 2 seasons, just for fun
Howie Kendrick (2nd in baseball in UZR) has had a 23-run jump from 2010, where Adam Dunn has had nearly 70 runs lost from 2010… we know there’s a lot of variation either way, so I really can’t think of a way to prove it
I know they are fluctuations and probably even significant ones. I believe that a players defensive value will fluctuate less than his offensive value. Mostly this is because his range won’t change that much as long as he is healthy.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
A lot of players (most?) aren’t playing hurt though, so their range won’t change.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
you think 162 straight baseball games with practices
flight, charity events, workouts, etc… that more than 50% of players feel great on any given day? that’s why everyone (probably not everyone, but everyone) took amphetamines in the 80’s?
I think more than 50% of player’s are healthy enough that their range isn’t significantly affected. I can’t prove that either.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
I dunno how I’d really prove it… I guess until someone can disprove one view or the other, we’re going to have to agree to disagree
/grumble
My point is that I know of offensive fluctuations without looking at stats because they are that obvious.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
but the whole point of objective defensive metrics
is that it’s really hard to tell if a player is good or not (“hot” or “slumping”) on defense on eye-test alone
For me, that’s because it doesn’t fluctuate as much as offensive production.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s the nature of chat a bit I reckon. Anyways, I think we can agree:
Defense = Good
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
No one would have spans
equivalent to an 0-23 hitless streak, but I would think the variance would be noticeable and statistically significant
"The AL Beast" was an intelligent pun the first time it was used. That time was not at any point in the last 5 years. JUST STOP.
2012/Offseason-related FanPost tally since September 1: 7
why not?
Darnell McDonald missed three straight at least semi-catchable fly balls which turned into doubles just two days ago
I would be willing to put a lot of money on Rasmus being a much better player in the long run than Eric Thames.
That said, I agree re: Gose. Gose should have at least another full year in the minors, and realistically, probably shouldn’t be on the 2013 roster in a starting capacity either (assuming, of course, that we are “contending” or “going for it” that year. Perhaps in a 4th OF role, unless he really lights it up.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Gose will probably look ready in AAA even if he isn’t. One year of AAA is enough for most players (assuming he starts in AAA next year) To me our bullpen and defense is more deficient than our starting pitching.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Gose would move Rasmus to a corner OF which would make our outfield defense good. It Bautista moved to DH or 1B it would be better. I like Bautista as a DH/utility player but I don’t think he would like it too much :)
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 21, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes ...
Bautista's career potential is as a utility player
You know, I had never even considered Bautista as DH, but that makes a whole lot of sense in a couple years if Gose is ready.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Sep 21, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
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