How much better is this offense than the one we had at opening day?

by Pikachu on Sep 28, 2011 6:51 PM EDT

BOOOOOOOO season over. Time to start endlessly beating dead horse to deadly death.

The Jays' offense has gone through a LOT of changes from the start of the season. So how much better is it?

I'll only be covering the regulars, so no Molina or McCoy, etc.

Catcher

JP Arencibia to JP Arencibia

- No change, obviously. Solid hitter at C.

First Base

Adam Lind to Adam Lind/Edwin Encarnacion

- No change. Edwin will fill in every couples or so. Certainly a slight black hole.

Second Base

Aaron Hill to Kelly Johnson

- Huge upgrade offensively. Defense and base-running slightly worse. Overall, a significant upgrade, but Johnson may still leave in free agency.

Shortstop

Yunel Escobar to Yunel Escobar

- No change. Excellent bat at premium position to go along with great defense.

Third Base

Edwin Encarnacion/Jayson Nix to Brett Lawrie (I know Nix wasn't the starting 3B on opening day, but he played a lot so I'm including him)

- Huge upgrade. The ghost of Jayson Nix continues to haunt me. Lawrie has been great in the short time he's played for the Jays.

Right Field

Jose Bautista to Jose Bautista

- It's really too bad he won't win the MVP. Huge season with the bat.

Centre Field

Rajai Davis to Colby Rasmus

- Huge upgrade in potential with the bat. Colby's best days have yet to come in my opinion.

Left Field

Travis Snider to Eric Thames

- One of my irks in the season. I think Thames will be a useful bat, but honestly I fear Snider's days in Toronto is coming to an end soon. I seriously hope not. Upgrade in power for sure, but Eric fails to get on base much and his defense is a major problem.

Designated Hitter

Juan Rivera to Edwin Encarnacion/Adam Lind

- Big upgrade, especially after Edwin's fantastic second half. I think he'll stick around next year, but won't be surprising if he was traded.

So overall, big upgrades at 4 positions and a respectable upgrade at LF. Anthopoulos continues to find ways to make this team better,

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in terms of WAR, I think we increased by (at most) 11.5 WAR

3 each for KJ, Rasmus, Lawrie, 2 for Edwin (at DH), and 0.5 WAR for Thames

Sad, Drunk, And Poorly

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL

Twit Twat.

by Pikachu on Sep 28, 2011 6:58 PM EDT reply actions

meaning

if we play next season with the cast we have now, we’d be 11.5 WAR better than if we play next season with the cast we had at opening day

Sad, Drunk, And Poorly

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL

Twit Twat.

by Pikachu on Sep 28, 2011 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Great to hear!!

Need a new signature? Why not Zoidberg?

by dannyofbosnia on Sep 28, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

But is that a surefire thing?

These are just stats taken over this year right?

Once over the hill, you pick up speed.

"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."

by StreakyJays on Sep 28, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions

of course not

but even just eyeballing it, the players we have now are huge upgrades over who we had

Sad, Drunk, And Poorly

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL

Twit Twat.

by Pikachu on Sep 28, 2011 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Does that translate to about 11 more wins?

Or have I misinterpreted WAR?

The man in the white shirt.

by durga2112 on Sep 28, 2011 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

but don’t assume we’ll have 90+ wins. If the cast we had at opening day played a full season, they’d be much worse than .500

Sad, Drunk, And Poorly

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL

Twit Twat.

by Pikachu on Sep 28, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions

correct

to draw a proper conclusion, youd have to prorate it, which would be a pain to do with any degree of precision.

(and even then, WAR doesn’t entirely work like that because there’s some random variance in outcomes, even over 162 games)

I'm more than a little jealous of Grantland's ability to use footnotes rather than excessively long bracketed statements.

by Gerse on Sep 28, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions

2010: 3 or 4 black holes; 2011: 1 or 2

Yes, the way I look at it is that we have a respectable (average for position, or better) major league player at each position except left field. Opening day we had 3 or 4 black holes in the lineup, now we have 1 or 2. And a good left-fielder is a lot easier to find than a good 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman. Lawrie is Lawrie and Nix/the fielding Encarnacion were what they were. At 2nd, Johnson is not guaranteed to be with us next year and if he is, we don’t know which Johnson will show up, but the odds are better that our 2nd baseman will not be an automatic out. Left field could be solved in house (Snider still being the most promising) or we just stick with Thames/Loewen/Davis until Gose or Marisnick make it to the big show.

by khaleeji on Oct 1, 2011 5:02 AM EDT reply actions

The last 2 years, Sniders OBP has been lower than Thames in his 1 year. Just saying they are more comparable than you make them sound.

Rasmus is still an upgrade. He struggled with the bat but people downplay his defense. 0 DWAR vs -0.8 DWAR (Colby vs Raja) so he has a net gain of 0.8 WAR with defense alone over Raja. That’s in a new outfield (Rogers center) with new teammates (Where Jose always calls of CF for some reason)

by Mike Andrew on Oct 1, 2011 1:12 PM EDT reply actions

but Snider's comparable offense to Thames was done when he was 3 years younger

and Snider also isn’t abysmal defensively

I tweet and then Keith Law ignores me

by benk on Oct 1, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

your under the impression all players improve based on age not MLB experience?

by Mike Andrew on Oct 1, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

yes

I tweet and then Keith Law ignores me

by benk on Oct 1, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

well obviously both

but guys that can contribute at the Major League level at 20 years old turn into stars at a riidculously high rate

I tweet and then Keith Law ignores me

by benk on Oct 1, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough

I agree with that statement

Doesn’t mean Thames can’t be good/serviceable however

by Mike Andrew on Oct 1, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he'll be a very good injury replacement

or spot starter, though he’s limited by the fact that he can’t play CF. but if Snider or Bautista get injured, he’ll be a solid fill-in

I tweet and then Keith Law ignores me

by benk on Oct 1, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

This

by khaleeji on Oct 2, 2011 5:26 AM EDT up reply actions

they have nearly (or more than) a full win difference in defence

To be comparable, Thames should be hitting way better than Snider.

Sad, Drunk, And Poorly

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL

Twit Twat.

by Pikachu on Oct 1, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

performance wise, they are close

true talent level, I don’t think so.

Sad, Drunk, And Poorly

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL

Twit Twat.

by Pikachu on Oct 1, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

tough on Lind

You’ll notice in my comments above that I don’t consider Lind a “blackhole”. Really, he had a decent year for us, with a bit of a slow start and an awful 6 weeks at the end. Coming into the year, he could have gone either way: like Hill or like the Lind of old and of promise. He went somewhere in the middle, but definitely showed some quality. Also, his defense at 1st was fine; it wasn’t terrible unless Encarnacion was throwing his way from 3rd and we all know whose fault it was then. On offense, there were times when Jose was out of the lineup that Lind carried the team from the #4 spot. But he wasn’t consistent, and he will have to work on that if he wants to keep his place in the heart of the lineup. And if he’s not in the heart of the lineup as a 1b someone else will soon take his place.

by khaleeji on Oct 2, 2011 6:02 AM EDT reply actions