Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder or Yu Darvish? + poll
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 5, 2011 5:49 PM EDT
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PrintGiven that the Jays can probably only sign one of these players who would you prefer?
Albert Pujols - 31 Years old (32 in January) - averaged 7.1 WAR over the past 3 seasons (excluding the remainder of this season). His 2011 WAR so far is 4.9 . He seems older but he is only 9 months older than Bautista.
Prince Fielder - 27 Years old - Averaged 4.7 WAR over the past 3 seasons (once again excluding the remainder of this year). His 2011 WAR so far is 4.3 .
Yu Darvish - Is 25 years old.
You can assume all the signings would be at fair market value, whatever that is.
I think I would take Pujols but it depends on $. Any of them would be exciting :)
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Fielder
the contract he’s going to get will be way above his market value, but if we’re assuming market value for all of them, I want Fielder
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Erm
Technically if they’re on the open market (which Fielder and Pujols are, Darvish isn’t really), then is the contract they sign not, by definition, market value?
Unless you mean market value on a per WAR basis, but elite players make more $ per projected WAR while fringe players make less.
reactionary catastrophism ftw
No
my point is that with Boras Fielder will be able to get more than he would with the average agent.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Has anyone actually run numbers to test that?
I wonder that the Boras effect isn’t made out to bigger than it is. Isn’t Jered Weaver a Boras client? And didn’t Alex Rodriguez do just as well for himself after he fired him?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
it probably is overstated a bit
and I have no actual data to prove this, which means its probably wrong, but I doubt Fielder gets as much as he will get with Boras if he was with another agent.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
he's probably a good agent
but I think he makes a lot of noise, laypeople know his name and he is the agent for many superstars who would command big contracts anyway, so the effect – whatever it is – is prominent enough to be considered real.
I don’t think it is, personally
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When Weaver signed that extension for 5/85
Boras was probably thinking he could have gotten 7/120+ on open market. But any number to sign any of those 3 starts with 9 figures.
you mean a professional agent
wants to make as much money for his clients as possible?
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that, like, NEVER happens!
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
sounds like my salary
if only I could put the zeroes at the end instead of in front
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by jessef on Sep 6, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
With the recent success of our young starters
I had to vote Prince. Another power lefty in our already potent line up would do wonders. Now with Alvarez making a strong showing, Romero locked up long term, and guys like Molina and Hutch absolutely DOMINATING (even that could be an understatement to how good these guys have been) breaking the bank on a starter just doesn’t seem right.
With no real good corner power bats coming in the next season or two I’d say Prince makes the most sense.
oh
I guess you mean the young guys… they’re not very close to MLB ready
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If we don't want to send pitchers to AAA
they might be closer than we think.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 5, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he's an exception not the rule.
Once over the hill, you pick up speed.
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
hutchison and molina
have also been utterly dominant there. might be a small sample, but molina’s 33 k’s to 2 bb’s in 22 innings and hutchison’s 21 k’s to 2 bb’s in 15 innings are just silly.
might be a small sample?
replace “maybe” with “definitely” and add a clause that states “neither pitcher can throw over 140 innings tops next season” and then we’re in the same boat
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i still see a bunch of scouts/blogging scouts who aren't that high on Hutchison
says he gets by on deception a lot, which may or may not work in the majors
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
isn't that hyperbole
I have heard one scout say that recently on minorleagueball, but everone else’s opinion seems positive
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 6, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
dave gershman also wasn't that impressed by him
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
i'm just putting things into perspective here
i don’t see him as a top of the rotation type. probably a good mid-rotation starter, which is still excellent.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
well perhaps i mis-spoke
it is definitely a small sample size. but, K and BB rates stabilize pretty quickly, and i doubt there are many pitchers in AA this year who have had a ~20 inning stretch as utterly dominant as molina’s. my point isn’t that his true talent strikeout rate is 15 per 9, but rather that i bet he’s pretty close to being major league ready.
Frankly...
I don’t care for any of the 3. But I would absolutely love to have Votto at a fair trade price. If that’s possible.
Once over the hill, you pick up speed.
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
I really wish this was a viable option
I really hope the Reds would look at a prospects package to bring Votto north. That would be a pivotal move for both teams… would have to be a VERY good prospects package…
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Sep 5, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think Votto is a possibility
And not sure I would want him for the price.
It would take a 1st rounder (unless its protected, than a 2nd rounder), and a lot of money to sign Prince.
It would take a boat load of prospects (worth much more than the pick to sign Fielder), and another tonne of money to sign him.
I agree that Votto is the superior player (And 1 year younger), but I’m not sure that the incremental benefit actually is worth all the extra prospects needed to get him.
2011 Jays slogan should be "Power and Speed", not just "Hustle and Heart".
Proud member of the AL North
@VagabondBansal
that will work
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Hmm
Very interesting idea. Seattle might go for it because they are in complete rebuild right now and Felix will be too expensive by they time they are ready to compete. They would get a potential replacement for him in Yu, plus sustain their popularity in Japan. Jays would probably have to absorb the posting fee, but they also get a proven dominant starting pitcher.
I say one of either Fielder and Pujols + Darvish
We can afford the payroll of 2/3 of these players. I say take the pitcher because Darvish is MLB ready and clearly a phenom, plus one of Fielder or Pujols. For that choice, you could flip a coin becuase i am quite sure Pujols will still put up as comparable numbers as Fielder over the next 5 years. He’s a future hall of famer, if you can have him why not Pujols? But Fielder is coming into his prime. Ah decisions decisions… I trust Pujols bat over Fielders to make the transition to the AL East, plus he will DH the odd time too to take the wear and tear off.
How about Doug Fister/Rich Harden?
1 year deals that would allow us to compete next year without blocking our future core of pitchers. I want to sign any of these three as much as the next guy, but sometimes athletes rule out Canada because.. well… they’re idiots.
I would also love to trade some of our ridiculously stocked minor league pitching for a legit game changer like Votto, but I just don’t think it’s all that likely…
No Pressure Kyle, We've Already Replaced You...
by JaysFanExiledinOTT on Sep 5, 2011 8:39 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, I think along the same lines
Though I am also thinkg Shields/Buerle in FA (would have to extend term, but whatever, at the right price could trade them) or trade for Tim Hudson. Braves young pitchers coming up are slightly ahead of ours. Braves will have to unload someone to make room.
If not Darvish, then a proven starter
I hear CJ Wilson’s name being tossed about. Any other possibilities? Because here’s the thing. The Yankees have Sabathia, Nova and Hughes. The Red Sox have Beckett, Lester and Buchholz. The Rays have Price, Hellickson and Shields. At this point we have Romero and a number of…..question marks. I think we’ve done enough upgrades to the lineup over the last two years that the focus needs to shift to the rotation.
nova hughes and hellickson were all prospects
and we have a lot of prospects
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
but pitching prospects flame out a lot
although between alvarez, mcguire, drabek, hutchison, molina, jenkins i expect we’ll be able to get 2-3 solid starters, which would be pretty good when coupled with romero, morrow, cecil. still, adding one more veteran starter to that mix would make it look a lot better, and in the off chance more prospects develop than expected, we can always trade them.
i'm just saying
pointing out nova, buccholz, hughes, and hellickson as proven pitchers is kinda funny, since they were prospects 1~2 years ago
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
also
2011 xFIP
Hellickson: 4.52
Buccholz: 4.25
Hughes: 4.86
Nova: 4.03
Maybe buchholz does have some way of outperforming his peripherals (though I’m not convinced he does) and Nova looks like he could be really good. I’m not sold on Hellickson or Hughes as proven major league starters yet, though. Look at Hellickson’s age 24 season and then look at Jesse Litsch’s age 23 season. He’ll likely develop further, of course, but I certainly wouldn’t say he’s proven now.
And, to be honest, I’m starting to get sold on Hughes as not being that good. He’s 25 years old and he’s had one good season out of the bullpen and one league-average season starting.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I'm shocked at how few people are picking Pujols
I mean, he’s been the best player in baseball for the past 5 years. even in a “down year” (it was really only a down month, since may started he’s been the same old pujols we’re used to), he’s out-WARing Fielder, and will likely put up a 5.5-6 WAR season. he safely projects at 6 WAR for next year, which is a whole 2 wins more than even an optimistic projection for Fielder or Darvish. and while Pujols is obviously past his prime/in decline phase, so is Fielder (hitters generally peak around 27 and start declining thereafter), so Pujols will likely be the better player for the next 5+ years. I just don’t see any reason to want Fielder over Pujols (unless the price gap is like $10+ million per year or something).
because he'll probably demand a 10 year contract
and I find it hard to believe even he can be superman past age 36~7
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
but fielder will probably demand a 7-8 year contract
if it’s pujols for 10 years at like 28 per year vs. fielder for 8 years at like 23 per year, i think pujols is by far the better value
ok i just checked the numbers
assumptions:
1) $5 million per WAR for the 2012 season with 5% inflation per year
2) pujols is a 6 WAR player in 2012, fielder is a 4 WAR player in 2012
3) both players decline by .5 WAR per year
then, on a 10 year deal, pujols “should” get $225 million.
on a 7 year deal, fielder “should” get $100 million.
i bet pujols ends up getting a little bit more than that, and fielder ends up getting WAY more than that.
why is fielder a 4 WAR player?
He’s entering his prime
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
i honestly see Fielder and Pujols being of similar value for the next 3~4 years
maybe pujols will be a bit better, but at least we won’t have to keep fielder until he’s past 40.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
he's not entering his prime
next year will be his age 28 season, which means he’s entering the beginning of his decline phase.
3:2:1 weighting of the past 3 years puts fielder at ~4.7 WAR, pujols at ~6.7 WAR. add in a little regression to the mean, plus a little skill degredation from aging, and you end up with an approx projection of 4 WAR for fielder next year, 6 for pujols. maybe you can put fielder at 4.5, but certainly no higher than that.
basically i see pujols in years 4-10 of a 10 year deal equalling the performance of fielder in years 1-7 of a 7 year deal. meanwhile, years 1-3 of pujols will likely be much better than any 3 year stretch of fielder.
28 is decline phase?
excuse me, but what the hell are you talking about? I’ve seen “baseball prime” refer to anywhere from twenty-nine to thirty two years old.
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and besides that
how can you weight decline phases equally for a 27 year old and a 31 year old?
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maybe espn talking heads say it's 29 to 32
but i’ve never seen any study that puts peak age for position players any later than 28, and i’ve seen ones putting it as early as 26.
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/625879/batting.jpg
if you’re interested more in this topic, just search for aging curves on the book blog. there are a ton of interesting discussions on it there.
that figure doesn't necessarily mean anything
the guys who are up at 23 and 24 are likely better overall players than the guys who make it to the majors later. As such, it makes the early years for players look better than they are.
Also, while the max is at 26, I’d say the figure demonstrates peak performance until around 29 — remember, we’re looking at a swing of something like 3 batting runs between the max (at age 26) and age 29.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
alright
I’ll check it out – it’s possible whatever I saw was about pitchers
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Who is the team that is paying $225M for Pujols. NYY and Bos both have 1B already and I can’t see them paying that much for a DH. The Dodger and Mets wouldn’t seem to be interested in acquiring high priced free agents right now given their position in the standings and their financial issues.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 6, 2011 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I voted "None"
My views on Prince are well-known: I think his contract will be for far more than the value he’ll produce over the life of the contract. I think Pujols will be similarly over-valued, particularly if he gets 10 years.
I’m really 50/50 on Darvish. I watched him pitch in the WBC and thought he was awesome. I just think for the money involved, the Jays can sign and develop a boat-load of picks and international free agents.
I think that AA’s plan is to have ridiculous amounts of talent in the system and develop about 80% of the roster from within and use either the FA market or the excess talent as trade chips to acquire the finishing pieces, but not on huge, long-term contracts. The model is the 1980s and early 90s Jays under Gillick. I think that AA plans to win 95+ games every year starting in 2013. Next year: 90.
Hugo thinks I'm a lazy academic
by bluejaysstatsgeek on Sep 6, 2011 12:59 AM EDT reply actions
I have to agree with you a bit on this
We will tend to get better deals on extending current and future talent than spending all of this money on Fielder.
I have high hopes for David Cooper anyways.
I would much rather be patient and use that kind of money to retain current and future talent as well as increase the draft budget (and IFA).
Ditto
I think that the market is going to be way overpriced on Fielder and Pujols, and if Yu is a 50M+ posting fee along with a 5 year deal in the 60M range, he’s not worth it. I’d rather trade for a good number 2 starter and dump money into the bullpen, and wait on the 2012 FA market.
What makes you expect 2012 FAs to be any less overpriced?
by Gerse on Sep 6, 2011 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
2012 is going to have a larger number of impact FAs, where as this year’s is kind of thin. Which is why the prices for Fielder, Pujols, and Reyes are going to be insanely high. I also think there’s better pieces coming. Pujols, Fielder and Reyes (and likely Darvish) could all help the club, no question. But I don’t see any of them as natural fits for what the club needs at their prices.
To be fair, though,
we don’t know how many of those potential impact free agents are going to re-up with their current clubs before the Jays would get a chance to sign them
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Cost of Players
Ok how many teams in MLB can afford to pay this kind of contract, Feilder is more likely a target for the Red Sox and Yankees as he may be a DH, but Pujols has to play 1B which puts the Red Sox and Yankees out of the running, then you got maybe Texas, St Louis, Chicigo and the Jays… Jose needs some better protection….
the Yankees can't afford to give contracts to fielder or pujols
unless they’re willing to trade Teix
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
If they can afford ump's
They can afford Fielder and Pujols… both.
Is this a joke?
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
yessir
But seriously I think they could afford both. If they raised ticket prices and from increased playoff revenues I bet they’d still be rolling in the dough.
its not about affording
they have nowhere to put them
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
They could put Tex in the of. If the cards did it with Berkman I dont see why the yanks couldn't do that with Tex
I found a delivery in my flaw
by syc on Sep 7, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
And replace which one of Granderson, Swisher, Gardner?
I don’t see the Yankees being involved in the Fielder bidding at all, really.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
the yankees are in on everyone until they sign else where
I found a delivery in my flaw
by syc on Sep 7, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
then they lose one of gardner or swisher
both of whom are having better seasons than teixeira
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
better year yes but they would keep tex over swisher anyday
I found a delivery in my flaw
by syc on Sep 7, 2011 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
but that would be a stupid reason to let go of a good player available for 10 million dolalrs
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
yankees have money
but they aren’t stupid
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
keep swish on the bench as a 4th
I found a delivery in my flaw
by syc on Sep 7, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
read above
they aren’t stupid. spending 10 million dollars on a bench player is stupid.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
None of the above.
Trade for Joey Votto. This would be an excellent use of the pitching depth in the minor league system.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
I don't count 4 above average pitchers do you?
Also with frequent injuries you can never pencil in pitchers anyways. The reason we are so stocked is because we have the 24th best ERA in the league. That kind of pitching in the AL East don’t cut it.
If anything I say bring in more pitching.
waste
keep the pitching and just pay a bit more for fielder
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
the $30 mill you save by not having to deal with free agency will buy you 15-20 elite dominican prospects
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 6, 2011 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
it cost us 10 million for an elite dominican position prospect, and 2.8 million for an elite pitching prospect
scouts say Osuna will cost 4+ million. they don’t go for that cheap anymore. The ones that come for under a million are just as risky as the average draft pick
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
and anthopoulos also isn't the type to not spend on IFA
even if we spend on fielder, he won’t shy away from IFA signings.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Hech wasn't 16. Its cheaper for the young ones
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 6, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
its cheaper for the younger ones?
Osuna will cost 4 million
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
or in the neighbourhood of that
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
He had a 5 ERA in AAA at 15 years old
not exactly your normal prospect
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 6, 2011 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
At 6'2" 240lbs, hes not your normal 15 year old either...
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
adonys cardona got 2.8 million
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
2.8 mill or 4 mill isn't much for elite potential talent and they don't all cost that much.
you give up 3 or 4 prospects from Votto. Then you take the $30+ million in saving and buy 11 Cardonas or 7 Osunas. I’m just saying free agency is not cost effective.
Personally, I favor doing what the Red Sox did to get Adrian Gonzalez instead of just buying a guy in free agency.
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 7, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
and then extend him for about as much as he'll have gotten in free agency
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
i don't see how Gonzalez would've gotten much more than 7/154
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
not much more
but even if it’s a 10-15 million total savings over what he would’ve gotten as a free agent, that’s basically the value of a top 100 pitching prospect.
what you're not grasping here is what we'll have to give up to get votto
like, seriously. My mind is blown that people actually think trading for votto is a reality. This is basically the Hernandez-Yankee rumours that the Yanks fan love to do, and its ridiculous.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
really?
votto’s trade value this offseason will be basically what AGon’s was last offseason (one extra year of team control, but an extra $23 million in salary).
AGon got back the #31 and #75 prospects, another non-top 100 pitching prospect, and a throw-in prospect. that’s equivalent to something like D’Arnaud, Hutchison, McGuire, and Knecht. I would probably do that trade. would you not?
by Jono411 on Sep 7, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
agonz had 1 year left on his deal
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
adds another top 50 prospect
and a top 200 prospect probably
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
votto is owed an extra $23 million
subtracts another top 50 prospect
if you think the Reds will trade Votto for fair value, you're crazy
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
and votto's a better player than agonz
adds that top 50 prospect back
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
to be fair,
the fact that he’s better than gonzalez is a good thing, not a bad one.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
it is a good thing
and I mean that he’ll cost a lot more than what gonzalez was traded for
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Sure
just saying that using that as a reason not to trade for him doesn’t make sense. You’re right, though — it does make sense to use it when we’re trying to get at what the Reds will want for him, which — I tend to agree with you on — will likely be a boatload of prospects (Ricciardi 2009)
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
My mind is blown that people actually think trading for votto is a reality. This is basically the Hernandez-Yankee rumours that the Yanks fan love to do, and its ridiculous.
To be perfectly honest, I think there is a better chance we trade for Votto than we sign Fielder. If you think that’s “ridiculous” and it “blows your mind”, well, you are entitled to that opinion.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
how is that possible?
For a trade to happen, both sides actually have to want to commit to the trade. You think the Reds is looking to trade Votto?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
even if they want to trade votto the first player they will wont back is Lawrie
I found a delivery in my flaw
by syc on Sep 7, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
and more probably
why would they want prospects anyways? They’re competing.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
assuming here that they don't trade their best player for non-major league ready players
the Padres did that, but they knew they weren’t competing in 2012
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
we just have to hope the reds stink the next couple years and are forced to trade him before the lose him to FA
I found a delivery in my flaw
by syc on Sep 7, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
would have to stink pretty bad in 2012
for them to even think about trading him. They’d be looking everyway to extend him.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
How is it a waste to trade from unproven depth for a stud 1B that looks likely to have a better shelf life than Fielder and comes with a much better contract?
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
so we give up boatloads of elite talent
for 2 years of votto
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
“Boatloads of elite talent”…for 2 years of elite talent with the ability to lock up longterm without paying a FA premium?
Take a look at comparable trades. Are you suggesting you wouldn’t have done a trade like the A-Gon deal last year? I would have done that in a heartbeat.
And to call these A-ball and AA-ball arms “boatloads of elite talent” doesn’t entirely paint a completely accurate picture in my books. I am talking about acquiring a top-10 talent in all of MLB, that is young, cost controlled for 2 years, and playing a position of need, in exchange for something built around pitching depth that we have.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
he's controlled
I’d hardly say he’s “cost-controlled” given how much he’s getting paid
Total Internet points: 10 000
Considering what he is producing, he is providing very good value.
And the bottom line is, we are simply not competing in the AL East without elite bats. If it costs us some pitching prospects to get an elite bat at a position of need, do it.
I am actually kinda surprised at the negative reaction I am getting to promoting trading for Votto rather than going after Fielder.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Fielder isn't an elite bat?
I don’t understand why its a good idea to give up your prospects for votto when Fielder is available in free agency. Especially since you’re going to have to extend votto anyways after that for about as much or more than what fielder got.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
he's an elite bat
but definitely not as valuable a player as votto
Offense:
Votto wOBA past three seasons: .418, .439, .413
Fielder wOBA past three seasons: .420, .380, .396
Defense: (numbers are UZR/DRS)
Votto past three seasons: -1/1, +2/1, 6/1
Fielder past three seasons: +2/-1, -7/-13, -5/-4
Baserunning:
Votto past three seasons: 0.3, -1.4, -2.6
Fielder past three seasons: -4.5, -6.5, -4.7!!!
Votto since 2009: 18.3 WAR
Fielder since 2009: 14 WAR
basically Votto has been 1.5 WAR per season better than Fielder, which is about ~$8 million a year of value on the free agent market. so if Fielder’s going to cost $9 million more per year, and provide $8 million less value for the next couple years, then the next two years of Votto are worth $35 million more than the next two years of Fielder. plus, we’d be locked into Fielder’s age 30-35 years for likely more money than they’re worth, whereas we would have the option of letting Votto go if we couldn’t work out a fair/team-friendly extension.
by Jono411 on Sep 7, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
tell me what you think we'll have to give up to get votto
whatever you tell me, won’t be enough to pry him from the Reds
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
dWAR is irrelevant
either Edwin or Lind are starting at 1B. no chance Fielder does
Total Internet points: 10 000
If Lind is starting at 1B
what’s the point in signing Fielder? Having a black hole like that in the lineup at a position where the Yankees and Red Sox are strong pretty much dooms the season before it starts.
They're not just hitting home runs. They're doing the little things, like hitting doubles.
Lind's batted ball profile and peripherals
suggest he should be producing at a much higher level given normal “luck.” in either case, I think Edwin’s probably a better option, but I doubt the Jays will give up on him/platoon him given that he’s not old and still under significant team control
Total Internet points: 10 000
Fielder is an elite bat. But he’s not as good as Votto. And he’s going to cost a bucketload more for at least the next 2 years.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
votto will cost more than fielder in free agency
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
so you're not going to extend him?
trading our best prospects for 2 years of a player isn’t a good idea, even if the player is elite
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
If that player gets us into the playoffs for the next 2 years, I would have to disagree.
And we still have prospects.
Who would you give up for Votto?
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Lawrie and d'Arnaud
thats what they’ll want
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Unless the Reds figure that there's absolutely no possible way to extend Votto
the price to trade for him would be astronomically high.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
the next 2 years of Votto are $28m. The next 2 of Ryan Howard are $50m. The next 2 of Prince or Pujols are atleast $40m-$50m.
You are saving a minimum of $24m to get Votto for 2 years and then you can resign him or get two draft picks.
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 7, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
ryan howard is a terrible example
and the other two are free agents. When Votto hits FA, he’ll cost nearly the same or more.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
and I don't see the merit in giving up at least our 3 best prospects for votto, and not extending him
hence, it becomes a similar scenario with fielder and pujols.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
what's wrong with trading for him and not extending him?
he still provides tremendous value over the next two seasons.
after that, if he’s willing to sign a team-friendly extension, then do it, and if he’s not, let him walk, and maybe we recoup some draft picks.
whats wrong is
he’s an elite player who’s at his peak. you think his team will trade him for just any prospects?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
It wouldn’t cost the 3 best prospects. Look at the A-Gon trade for comparison.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Adrian Gonzalez, career 135 wRC+ hitter
Joey Votto, career 152 wRC+ hitter.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
You don’t know what it would cost any more than I do. I don’t think it would cost our “3 best prospects” whomever those would be.
In fairness, if the Reds were interested in trading, what would you actually give up for Votto? I have a feeling the answer is different from what I would be willing to give up, which probably explains the difference of opinion.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
my answer would be "no I don't want to trade for him, since the reds would want more than what I value Votto's 2 years at"
and if I had to trade for him, it would be something like Lawrie and d’Arnaud + some other prospects. If they don’t want d’Arnaud because he’s blocked by Mesoraco, then it with Lawrie, Gose, Hutchison +.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Ok. So that’s what you think it would take? But that’s not what you would offer.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
My offer would be d'Arnaud, Gose, Syndergaard, and probably another decent prospect
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I guess I would see that as a competitive offer (although as mentioned above, I think they’d want a Drabek or Alvarez instead of D’Arnaud).
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
Realisticly it would take more
Drabek, D’Arnaud, Lawrie and Lind would probably do it.
Why the heck would a competing team trade a reining MVP like Votto for a prospects package anyways? The reason they signed him through Arb years is to keep him happy and give him a sense of security to improve their chances of retaining him in the future.
If he was traded here I would give him a reasonable chance at resigning, but I would expect the dollar figures to be consistent with what Fielder gets. We aren’t really gaining any financial flexibility in the trade.
I propose we model ourselves after the Rays. You grow prospects, they play for 6 years, then they pack their backs and replenish the farm (Through free agency) with the only change being we resign our players. I would love to see D’Arnaud, Drabek, Lawrie, Thames enter their primes and play out their contracts in Toronto. Why does everything have to be a trade or a huge signing? (We do need to patch holes with type B free agents however)
Just my opinion, don’t shoot me for it but I just don’t see the point in selling the farm or signing Fielder.
I kind you are trying to be argumentative more than thinking like the Reds GM
They signed an extension with Votto only through his arb years. To me, that says he doesn’t want to stay there past the contract. Phillips has a $12 mill option this summer. Hes already stating if they don’t extend him this off season, he is leaving in free agency after the option.
The prospect of losing Votto and Phillips would kill any chances of them being competitive any time soon, especially considering their pitching staff is hopeless.
Granted they have no need for D’Arnaud, but a package of McGuire, Molina, Drabek, and Gose (3 Top 100 prospects) has got to be tempting because you cannot get pitching affordably on the open market (i.e. Ted Lilly makes like $12m a year)
That might seem like a lot to give up but our system can handle it.
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 7, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Aren't Votto and Phillips
both under team control next year, a season in which the Reds could certainly compete, considering that the two teams ahead of them in the standings are going to be losing big free agents?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Fair point and probably right
But still i think trading for Votto in the summer of 2012 would be better than signing Fielder this off season.
Also I think signing Fielder makes it more difficult to trade for Votto later
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 7, 2011 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
it would definitely preclude us trading for Votto
that’s for sure
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I find it so odd how whenever a big international prospect is on the market like Adeiny or Yu Darvish..
We are always mentioned in the teams interested in him on MLBTR, it’s so odd, I don’t remember JP Ricciardi taking this much interest in players…AA is awesome.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
What about Justin Morneau?
Just throwing it out there. After reading the above comments about trying to aquire Joey Votto, why hasn’t anyone suggested asking the twins about him? If he’s healthy, he’d be just as good a fit as Votto, already knows AL pitching, and the twinkies might make a better trade partner.
Or Adam Dunn?
Given that Morneau and Dunn make similar money to Bautista, a trade seems more likely than signing a 1B for significantly more. On the other hand, Pujols does play some 3B and this would allow Lawrie to slide over to his natural position at 2B ;-)
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
i'd be scared to trade (or waiver claim) dunn
his trade value is rock bottom, but his contract is still pricey if he’s going to be terrible like this. Depends on how much better we think he’ll be in the future
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
trade for dunn*
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Pujols played 7 games this year at 3rd but that was the first time since 2002.
There is also some concern that he is older than listed.
I don’t like Lawrie at 2B but defensively I would love 1B – Lawrie, SS – Hech, 3B – Yunel.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 8, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
lawrie at 1B?
really?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Defensively the Jays would the ability to win a gold glove at each of those positions. It would certainly help out our pitching staff. I like Yunel better at 3B than 2B if he has to change positions.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 9, 2011 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions
that sounds pretty stupid, imo. One of Lawrie's strong points is his powerful throwing arm.
That would be hugely wasted at 1B.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Escobar would be better at 3B than Lawrie.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 9, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
doesn't mean you move lawrie to first...
why the hell would you move him to one of the least defensively relevant position? I’d rather move him to RF and move Bautista to 1B.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Just because it is one of the least important positions doesn’t mean it is irrelevant. A player can still gain a lot of WAR with 1st base defense. It doesn’t mean he wouldn’t play any third base either. More like Kevin Youkillis. Also, you don’t have to be so condescending.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 10, 2011 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions
name another 1B who can steal 20~30 bags a season
moving Lawrie to 1B is an even worse idea than moving him to 2B.
how the heck am I being condescending?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Some quotes:
that sounds pretty stupid
why the hell would you move him to one of the least defensively relevant position?
how the heck am I being condescending?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 11, 2011 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Why is the ability to steal bases a disadvantage for a 1B?
Mark Texeira Is 7.1 runs above average by UZR. Adrian Gonzalez is +9.0 . Are those runs less valuable because they occur at 1B?
Also, there is a significant offensive advantage to having a 1B who can play 3B and a 3B that can play SS. If either the 3B or SS get injured or need a day off then you just add a 1B player to the lineup and move 1B to 3B and 3B to SS. This means more AB’s for Edwin Encarnacion/David Cooper type players and less AB’s for John Macdonald or similar.
The same thing happens in the outfield if you have a corner outfield that can play CF. Your 4th outfielder doesn’t have to have the ability to play CF because you already have a backup.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 11, 2011 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the point here is that
it is inefficient to have someone who can play third playing first base because it’s a lot harder to find a third baseman who can hit than a first baseman. Likewise short to third and a corner outfield spot to centre.
It’s great when your centrefielder hits like a corner outfielder but there aren’t really enough good centrefielders to go around baseball that it makes it worthwhile to start stashing them in corner slots.
Also, given how few positions lefthanded fielders can play, there is a slight disadvantage to the team to putting a righthanded fielder there (just in that they’d have one fewer spot to put another lefty in)
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
When Hechavarria is ready the question is where to put Yunel (AA has stated repeatedly that Hech is staying at SS). I like Yunel better at third because I think he will have superior defense there and the reasons above. I can see the rationale for moving him to 2nd though.
When (if?) Gose is ready then we will also have 2 CF’s. Rasmus would presumably move to a corner outfield position but our 4th outfielder wouldn’t need to be able to play CF and our offense would be better because of it. The Yankees are the same with Granderson and Gardner.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 11, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
sure
re: Second Base
Assuming Kelly Johnson is not the long term plan, is it easier for the Jays to move Yunel to 2nd and find a first baseman or move Yunel to 3rd, Lawrie to 1st and find a second baseman?
re: CF
I wasn’t referring to the Jays specifically. You made a general comment and I treated it as such. Assuming that Rasmus is good enough at centre to stick there and Gose is ready for the majors while Rasmus is still cost-controlled, yes, it makes sense for the Jays to have two centrefielders. Also, the Yankees are not a good example because they are not limited by the same restrictions as the Jays (and the rest of the teams in the league).
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Generally the Yankees are in a different situation. In this instance though Granderson is making $8.25M this year and Garder is only making $530K. Granderson was acquired via trade and Gardner came from their farms system, so it isn’t a case of the Yankees outspending everyone.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions
except you cherrypicked two low-paid players
what about Tex, Cano (retention), Jeter (retention), Rodriguez, Swisher, Sabathia, Rivera (retention), Soriano?
Total Internet points: 10 000
We were talking about their ability to retain two players that could play CF.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions
The Jays have also recently had 2 outfielders that could play CF in Wells and Rios.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes,
and that worked out so well that they should absolutely use it as a model for how to continue to run the team!
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I didn’t in any way suggest that it worked out well. We were paying more for those 2 players than the Yankees are paying for Granderson/Gardner.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
The Jays
everyday lineup would be better offensively with Yunel at 2nd. Their everyday defense would be better if he moved to third and Lawrie moved to 1st. It depends which you prefer.
As I mentioned previously there is also an offensive advantage to having Lawrie at 1st (and Yunel at 3B) in that your utility infielder doesn’t need to be able to play SS and that utility player will have less plate appearances.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions
For some reason,
I think it’s kind of unlikely that the “offensive advantage to Lawrie playing 1st” outweighs the offensive disadvantage of batting a second baseman instead of a first baseman.
This season, six second basemen have wRC+ greater than 120 and another five are between 100 and 110. By the time you get to the median, you have a wRC+ around 88 or 89.
The sixth-best first baseman has a wRC+ of 150 instead of 121. 11th best? Michael Cuddyer (124). The median is 113 or so.
For the “defensive advantage” of moving two players around (including a player who just learned his position and looks good there so far), you’re willing to give up 25 points or so of wRC+. I’m not.
Also the “offensive advantage” stuff is bunk. Instead of playing a crappy middle infield backup only when someone is hurt, you’re going to have to sign and play a middle infielder everyday.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
It is easier to acquire an everyday 2nd baseman that can hit than a utility player that can hit. Anyone on the free agent market that is a utility player probably can’t hit very well or he would already be playing everyday.
Players get hurt but they also need days off. Lawrie would probably spend half the year at 3rd anyway.
Anyways, there are also merits to having Yunel move to 2nd base, I just like the infield defense better with him at 3rd.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
" Lawrie would probably spend half the year at 3rd anyway."
um what?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Anytime either Yunel or Hech were injured or needed a day off Lawrie would play 3rd. I’m not sure how many games McCoy and McDonald played this year in the infield but it feels like a lot.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably not 1/2 though, maybe 1/3.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, but part of that
was how awful Aaron Hill was
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I like it because I think Edwin is going to have a better year next year
But I’d rather Edwin play 1st and Lawrie play 3rd.
We have Cooper/Lind/Edwin who all have a good chance to be on our 25 man roster, (You can tell David Cooper to play another season in AAA after winning a batting title) who do/can play 1st.
We are much more thin at 3B… If it was vica versa then sure, it makes sense.
by Mike Andrew on Sep 11, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Lawrie should at least learn 1st
For injuries and what not.
most players can learn 1st fairly quickly.
only the really terribly unathletic ones can’t handle 1B
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
This is true
but a huge deal was made over Lind moving to first (Didn’t they groom him for months?) but Edwin just switched in for a few spring training games…
I wonder if the 10,000 hour theory works here.
by Mike Andrew on Sep 10, 2011 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
a huge deal was made
but the actual transition was largely seamless. I think the whole “huge deal” was the result of people not realizing how easy first base really is (for a professional baseball player, anyway)
Total Internet points: 10 000
I agree 1st is way easier.. even at the high school level
I converted from CF to 1B my junior year… you just play catch with the SS…
But clearly to be elite it takes hours of practice, I am just wondering if Brett moving to first at the MLB level is just a matter of switching up the lineup card.
And I might sound like a complete idiot for raising this question, but if we moved Bautista to CF, how many runs would we lose on defense compared to what we would create from an offensive standpoint? I am becoming increasing interested in how conversions can add runs to a team…
but the difference between an elite 1B and a decent one isn't huge
and a decent one is easy to find
Total Internet points: 10 000
Moving Bautista to centre wouldn't help the club right now
For it to be worthwhile, the team would need to have a combination of 1) a terrible centrefielder (like if we were starting DeWayne Wise everyday) and 2) a good corner outfielder who can’t get any at-bats.
Since the Jays have a good hitting and decent fielding centrefielder and don’t have a wealth of exceptional options at corner slots (though it is nice to see Loewen get some reps), it doesn’t make sense for them to move Bautista right now
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Heard Lind say it was
a lot easier going back to first than learning to play the outfield (or words to that effect). From the wikipedia article
“In 2003, he was named as a Freshman 2nd team All-American first baseman. In 2004, he was named a Sun Belt Conference All-Star outfielder.”
by The commentator formerly known as Yoda on Sep 11, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
but that’s almost definitely on the strength of his offense, so not really relevant
Total Internet points: 10 000
No, what I meant
was only that he already was a first baseman before he became an outfielder. The quote was just used to show when he was a 1st baseman so I wouldn’t have to do a lot of extra typing like now.
by The commentator formerly known as Yoda on Sep 11, 2011 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
.....leaving 2B up for grabs
AA probably signs one of one of Johnson, MacDonald or Hill for 2B but Jays probably go after pitching much harder. What will be interesting is whether Hech or Yunel start taking turns at 2B come spring.
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Some of the comments in this thread
just made me face palm. Jesus…
How Pujols isn't leading this by a landslide is beyond me
One of the best hitters of all time in their prime and you people pick Darvish and Fielder????? Facepalm after facepalm. Hey guess what. Rogers is a massive company and one of the wealthiest companies that owns a sports franchise. It’s not your money why would do you care where they spend it?
Some of us are on Bell and would rather throw Ma Bell money away......
Not that getting a sure HOF’er is “throwing money away” but the bar has been set at 200 mil for Pujols and that’s just a tad more than Jays will commit to one player.
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
It’s not your money why would do you care where they spend it?
ARE YOU S***ING WITH ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
ITS NOT OUR MONEY
LETS GO AND BURN ROGERS CENTRE!!! THEY CAN BUILD A BETTER ONE!!! ITS NOT OUR MONEY SO WHO CARES?!?!?!?!
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I love you
The Blue Jays payroll next season before arb cases is 36 million….in 2008 the team salary was a whopping 97,973,900 don’t you think if the Blue jays have the pieces in place to make a run at a few championships that Rogers will even go higher than this? Sign Pujols to a 10 year deal. He’s been so consistent his whole career that he’ll still be hitting 20+ jacks in his 40’s. Than trade a package of expendables(Lind, Drabek, Thames/Snider+ more if need be for a premier ace pitcher. Preferably Hernandez <3
Escobar SS
Lawrie 3rd
Bautista rf
Pujols 1st
Encarnacion DH
Rasmus CF
Thames/Snider LF
Johnson 2nd
Arencibia/D’Arnaud C
Hernandez
Romero
Morrow
Cecil
Alvarez
I know this looks awesome on paper but
you must mean Livan Hernandez for the guys you’re “willing” to part with
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Of course.....Jays need a lefty to neutralize Adrian, Papi, Cano and Granderson!
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
So you're saying
lets trade for Larry Hernandez?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
dammit
its bernandez, not hernandez
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Joke fail.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
Pujols hitting 20 jacks isn't good
we have Adam Lind being mediocre and hitting 25 as we speak
Total Internet points: 10 000
LOL at the thought of Seattle trading Hernandez for Lind, Drabek, Thames/Snider and more unless by more you mean like 3 of our best prospects
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
even then its a stretch
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Pikachu
Maybe Felix was a bad example. Maybe Cain? The Canucks could afford to put up a hefty package for an ace pitcher. Maybe not even an ace pitcher but a number 2 at the least. That is if a player like Pujols is signed. The Jays could go from .500 team to an AL East contender in just one offseason. Either way this is going to be an exciting season.
That would be if the Giants were willing to trade Cain
and I don’t see a reason for them to, unless we overwhelm them, which is a stupid thing to do anyways
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
With the emergence Bamgarner
I’ts possible.
bumgarner isn't taking over cain's spot though
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
unless we trade them a good bat, they aren't giving away cain
like, a good bat. Not thames/snider, not lind
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
i think Cain is a free agent after next season.
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 12, 2011 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
correct
but i doubt thames or lind gets us cain. Snider, perhaps, but his years of control are already pretty burned
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
They might want more for Cain
but Cain could easily be a guy you want to trade for and extend rather than sign to a huge contract in free agency.
He pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the MLB and there are some anemic offenses in the NL west. he could have troubles pitching in the AL east.
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 12, 2011 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, they'd try hard to extend him
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
According to the Toronto Sun
we aren’t interested in Fielder.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 4:57 PM EDT reply actions
That might be one of the worst things I've ever read
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
Not your fault, the suns
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
Benk, I was referring to what would be his lowest hr total at the very end of his contract. He’ll be a 40 homerun hitter for the next 6-8 years. Were looking at a potential Barry Bonds record breaking player. Not to mention him playing at the rogers center…..wow. You comparing him to Lind is the biggest slap in the face.
he's saying having pujols hit 20 homers into his 40s isn't good
because we’d be paying him 20+ million to do so, when we can pay 4 million for a guy like Lind to hit 20 homers do the exact same thing
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Ya and im saying he’d have 1 year into his 40 on his contract left…….Were talking about a top 5 hitter of all time only 31 years old with a career .330 or whatever batting average that pops 40+ out a year. How are you supposed to compete in the AL east without spending money. Ok Eintstein tell me how the Jays will compete with the Yankees and Red Sox without making and impact move?
So what do we do when he becomes 36, genius?
You think he’ll still be hitting .300 and hitting 40 jacks? I’m not prepared to have a spot in the lineup locked up for the next 10 years. Way too much money and way too many years.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Hello
Sign him for 10 years and $300 million with the last 6 years being team options
by Matthew Mueller on Sep 12, 2011 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions
thats a great idea
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I think we should make an offer on Fielder and Pujols
Not what they want but what we think they are worth. No point overspending like the Yankees or Red Soxs.
Lets be like the Rays and just resign all of our good players instead of letting them walk. The Rays have to choose who leaves, we don’t.
Everybody saying Pujols would be garbage at age 35-40 I respectfully disagree with. Barry Bonds did have 4 10+ WAR seasons between age 35-40, while having only 3 10+ WAR seasons in the previous 14 seasons. Not saying hes Barry Bonds but sluggers typically age rather well in my books. Albert Pujols career BA is only a point lower than Bonds, and his 162 HR average is still 7 different.
Bonds is a bizarre age curve though
whether it’s roids or not, almost no one has the kind of production surge he had
Total Internet points: 10 000
I agree Pujols isn't Bonds
But hes on a similar abnormally high level, I don’t believe natural regression will have the same effect on him as the regulars.
He might be a 5 WAR player throughout those seasons. My point is that people talk like hes Frank Thomas 2.0
Exactly
Were not talking about a regular Joe slugger. Were talking about the best player in the game. Rogers is a company that can afford to sign a player like this. The Yankees and Red Sox are not going to be able to sign this guy to a big contract. That is extremely lucky. The Jays should pounce on this opportunity. Bautista and Pujols 3/4 is beast. It’s not like your gonna have to give up much assets to get him. If he were available for trade it would have to be a package of Lawrie, Romero, Snider, Drabek and maybe even more. Yet he’s available for cash that the Jays will have a ton of. Their 2012 salary is 3 times less than what it was in 08. Even with Pujols signed it’s not even close………
i highly doubt, moving forward, Pujols is the best player in the game
just because rogers can afford to sign expensive players for more than they are worth, doesn’t mean its a smart move. We’ll be paying him and giving him a spot in the lineup until 2021. think about that for a second.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
negative 2 x
where x is this year’s payroll
Yes, the players will actually be paying the Jays for the right to play here.
thats smart
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
There might be a good reason to compare Pujols to Thomas
Frank Thomas, career OPS+ through age 31: 169
Albert Pujols, career OPS+ through age 31: 171
That doesn’t mean Pujols won’t age better (if you look at Thomas, he was actually a pretty good player when he wasn’t banged up) and he has certainly been a better first baseman than Thomas ever was, but he’s got injury issues as well. Personally, I’d be pretty hesitant to give him eight years, let alone ten. It’s a really big investment to make in one guy on the wrong side of 30.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
yes he's been great
doubt he’s going to great over the next 10 years
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Let's just
Agree to disagree. What are your thoughts on the pitching staff going forward?
At worst I don't think he drops below 4 WAR...
Which means he is a 20M/year kinda player which accounts for half his salary.
Like, the guys OBP only dropped below .400 twice in 11 years. Once at age 22 and another time in a down year. Career OPS of 1.040, only dropped below 1.000 OPS 3 times in his career. This season marks the first time hes batted below .300.
The dude has consistently been a machine. This down year shaves 3-4M/year off his salary (due to fear of regression), I think we bring him to the Dome.
According to WAR, hes 7x better than Lind :)
I’d be angry if we didn’t even show interest in him.
no one's saying he isn't a fantastic player
and I’m sure he’ll be great for at least a few more years. the problem is 7 years from now when you’re paying him like a superstar at 38. and I think his contract is going to be more like 28M/year, not 20M
Total Internet points: 10 000
of course we'll show interest in him
but do you want him through his age 37~41 years for 25+M/year?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
ooh, I can play this game, too!
Pujols’ most similar comps according to baseballreference (not that they’re all that similar)
1. Jimmy Foxx stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/foxxji01.shtml
2. Frank Robinson stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/robinfr02.shtml
3. Ken Griffey, Jr. stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/griffke02.shtml
4. Lou Gehrig stats (granted, different situation)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gehrilo01.shtml
5. Hank Aaron stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/aaronha01.shtml
6. Mickey Mantle stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mantlmi01.shtml
7. Mel Ott stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ottme01.shtml
8. Juan Gonzalez stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaju03.shtml
9. Eddie Matthews stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matheed01.shtml
10. Manny Ramirez stats
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirma02.shtml
Of course Pujols may age differently than 9/10 of these players (in the case of Gehrig, he certainly will), but, with the exception of Aaron, all these guys fell off a cliff after age 35.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
Yes, and add to it that a 31 year saying he wants to play when he is 41 can be very different from a 36 year old saying he wants to play at 41. It’s easier to endure the grind of a full schedule when you are younger especially if you add in the nagging injuries that occur during the season.
Sometimes it’s the body that says “I can’t do it anymore” and sometimes it’s the mind that says it.
How much $$ per WAR do you guys thing is reasonable?
I heard that a rule of thumb is 4.5M/WAR but I’m interested to hear what you guys think.
I think the defensive and speed components or WAR are usually cheaper to buy than the offensive component (especially power). Also, I don’t see players above 6 WAR getting that much/WAR. ie: if Ellsbury were a free agent he wouldn’t get $35M/year.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 16, 2011 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Remember that while there's a ceiling, there's also a floor
And given the vast number of fringe players relative to superstars, it kinda balances out.
That said, I’ve seen anywhere from 4-5m/yr used. Fangraphs usually uses 5, Tango uses 4-4.5, and so on.
"The AL Beast" was an intelligent pun the first time it was used. That time was not at any point in the last 5 years. JUST STOP.
2012/Offseason-related FanPost tally since September 1: 7
So if Bautista were a free agent year he would get $37M/yr. Yunel would get $19M/yr if he were a free agent this year?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 17, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
there’s a ceiling
As in there’s a limit to how much players will be able to get, regardless of skill.
there’s also a floor
As in players who project to around replacement level (obviously) earn more than 0 dollars per year
The two forces counteract, and you end up with the current generally accepted $/WAR range.
"The AL Beast" was an intelligent pun the first time it was used. That time was not at any point in the last 5 years. JUST STOP.
2012/Offseason-related FanPost tally since September 1: 7
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