I Threw You Fire; You Threw a Spark: What's Up With Brandon Morrow?
by hugo on Sep 8, 2011 9:55 AM EDT
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintHi everyone - Hugo here. Well, yesterday's game turned out fine, but Brandon Morrow isn't filling me with confidence. Brandon is a key piece moving forward and I thought it made sense to take a look at his body of work as a starter and what's happened in 2011.
In 300 innings since becoming a starter with the Jays, Morrow has great strikeout numbers (10.7 K/9), fine walk numbers considering his K rate (3.7 BB/9 for a 2.86 K/BB, and a big improvement this season) but only an 87 ERA+. I don't like the increasing trend towards flyballs (9 fly balls to only 4 on the ground yesterday) - his ratio has gone from about 1.0 GB/FB in 2010 to just .8 in 2011. The increased reliance on fly ball outs has meant more home runs this season and has hurt his tRA, which was a terrific 3.17 last season but has slumped to over 4 this year. (btw, tRA is similar to FIP and xFIP but takes into account batted ball types, which FIP and xFIP do not, making it a favourite of mine) Morrow's fielding independent stats suggest he should be more than capable as a starter, but at some point you'd expect the results to match up. What gives?
Morrow can't blame BABIP (.310 in 2011 - in line with what you'd expect from his career numbers and his line drive rate) or bad luck on fly balls (10.4 HF/FB, greater than last season but not out of whack, and his FIP and xFIP, which is the same as FIP but normalizes home run/fly ball rate to league average, are nearly identical). One possible culprit, which folks have mentioned, is his ability (or lack thereof) to pitch from the stretch. Brandon didn't really struggle with this in 2010 - his LOB% was 2% lower than league average, which is perhaps a little higher than what you'd expect from a better than average pitcher like Morrow, but hardly cause for alarm. But 2011 has been a different story. Brandon has stranded about 10% fewer runners than league average, grossly inflating his ERA. Moreover, with runners on, hitters have a .287/.357/.502 line against Morrow, while they are hitting just .244/.318/.399 against him overall. It doesn't appear to be a significant control issue in terms of finding the zone, since his K and BB rates are about the same with runners on and the bases empty. However, anecdotally, Morrow appears to have some trouble locating from the stretch, and that could be responsible for hitters' higher BABIP and higher home run rates in those situations (or it could be just plain bad luck - notably, Morrow was just as good with runners on as with the bases empty in 2010). Indeed, Morrow is substantially better at inducing ground balls when the bases are empty, and hitters have been much more likely to hit fly balls when runners are on, suggesting that he perhaps may have trouble keeping the ball down when pitching from the stretch. That is consistent with what I've observed. It could also mean that Morrow is pitching for the strikeout more with runners on, leading to more fly balls, but Brandon's K rates don't support that theory.
I'm actually more concerned by Morrow's increased reliance on just two pitches - in 2011 he has thrown sliders and fastballs about 90% of the time, which isn't exactly keeping hitters guessing. I do think this is hurting Morrow, and I'd look to his line against lefties for evidence. Against lefties Morrow's slider isn't an asset and so he has to mix in his other pitches more. Morrow's line against lefties in 2011 is excellent - they are hitting just .227/.299/.363 against him. This is particularly interesting to look at in light of his 2010 numbers, where he was mixing up his pitches better and was basically the same against righties and lefties. So when Morrow mixes his pitches more, he is equally successful against righties and lefties - when he doesn't, he is still successful against lefties (against whom he has no choice but to mix his pitches) but far less successful against righties (.266/.343/.466).
My thought is that Brandon should be working on two things to get ready for next season: locating his pitches when pitching from the stretch, and working in his offspeed stuff more against righthanded hitters. While those pitches haven't really been successful for him this season, I think increased variety would signficantly help his fastball, which has basically been a neutral pitch for him this season, which is significantly worse than you'd expect from a guy with a heater like Brandon's. Your thoughts?
Today's title from the Crooked Fingers song "You Threw a Spark."
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I see it as two things (maybe I'm wrong)
1) He’s still learning as a pitcher. One of the things we forget is that he hasn’t exactly spent his development time as a starter (thanks to Mariner desperation) and has to learn on the job in the not as forgiving AL Beast.
2) He probably needs to improve his endurance. Seems more run down.
Next spring training he’s going to need to work on his change up. If he can throw that pitch for strikes, he can deal with a dead arm period.
Also learn to pitch when he doesn’t have his best stuff. It took a while for RRCJ to.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Sep 8, 2011 10:13 AM EDT reply actions
These are good points
Seattle rushed him and I don’t think he properly learned how to pitch, which is what time in the minors is for. I also mentioned in another thread that Morrow has drastically reduced his use of his changeup and curveball essentially making him a two pitch pitcher (FB/slider). A big part of pitching is keeping hitters off-balance, which is why starters need 3-4 pitches to be effective multiple times through the order. If Morrow can develop an effective changeup, he should become a much more effective pitcher. As it is, he can still dominate at times with only two pitches, with three effective pitches, he could be a Cy Young candidate.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I think fastball command is the key
Successful pitchers can locate their fastball, which then allows them to use their other pitches. If you have to throw your fastball right down the middle to make sure it’s a strike, bad things happen.
Thank goodness the #1 priority in the Jays minor league system now is fastball command.
This might be part of it too
I just wish he’d throw his other offspeed pitches more. It’s hard to survive as a two pitch starter.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
2) He probably needs to improve his endurance. Seems more run down.
I think this goes hand-in-hand with his high pitch counts per inning (17.6 pitches per inning, which leads MLB). That would be consistent with Hugo’s point about Morrow’s pitch selection, relying mostly on the fastball and slider. Since there is less guesswork required, batters lay off on more pitches and sit on the fastball (or, in some instances, the slider).
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
This is one of those times when I have issues with some of the advanced stats. Morrow has a higher WAR right now than Romero, who has pitched 40 more innings and is giving up over 2 runs less per 9 innings(ERA, yes but still). Morrow’s WAR is a shade higher than Shaun Marcum. Why? Their BABIPs are certainly lower than Morrow’s, but does WAR really place that much importance on BABIP?
that's only true for fWAR
rWAR, which is based on runs allowed rather than FIP, favours Romero heavily (5.4 rWAR vs 0.5 for Morrow).
Fangraphs uses fWAR because they feel that DIPS better encapsulates those qualities that are under a pitcher’s control, and so better defines the value of the pitcher himself and is more predictive. rWAR is more descriptive, it tells very well what has happened but is arguably less predictive of future success.
It’s fair to take issue with limitations of statistics, as none are perfect. But it’s also important to understand what the stats do and do not purport to do, and to not misuse them to make points that they aren’t designed or capable to make
Fangraphs WAR is based on FIP, which looks at defense independent stats like strikeout rate, walk rate and homerun rate
Morrow has a high strikeout rate, a decent walk rate for a strikeout rate for a strikeout pitcher and an average homerun rate. That is why he has a better fWAR than Romero, mostly due to his strikeout rate. BABIP is not part of the equation
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
Ahh, thanks. I read the explanation incorrectly, thinking that the calculation actually took into account BABIP, not just assuming average:
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a give time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. "
Looking at the equation now, BABIP isn’t in there.
Speaking of WAR
Jacoby 8.1
Jose 8.0
:(
by craig in calgary on Sep 8, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Fangraph’s WAR – 3.0
Baseball Reference WAR – 0.5
That’s a pretty large difference.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 8, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Thank you Hugo
I was arguing the same point about his not being able to keep the ball down out of the stretch after his last start, but was derided as small sample size.
I did notice he started a few AB’s last night out of the stretch with balls down, but couldn’t find the strike zone. He then elevated, found the strike zone, but pretty well the middle of the strike zone and the balls were tattooed.
Change in his windup
I noticed a change in Morrow’s windup and something funky going on. Early season Morrow was dominant and flawless. He is giving up more homeruns and not getting his pitches in the strike zone..
Tom Stewart
There is something definitely going on with his mechanics
I was talking to Marc Hulet early last week about “late cock phase” and Drabek’s mechanics (Kyle’s stride foot hitting the ground before he has the ball ready to throw, which may cause excessive elbow/shoulder strain) , when he brought up Morrow.
This is what Marc had to say
" Brandon Morrow had a bad game today against the Rays and he had a similar problem to what the article describes… especially in the second inning. He was falling over the rubber early, which caused his arm to drag and put extra strain on his shoulder. Not good".
great analysis
lots of interesting points here. hoping that Morrow is, as Tom said yesterday, hitting a wall, and that he’ll be better next season.
Great article
Te only thing I have to add is cross my fingers and hope for the best.
37. There is no 'overkill.' There is only 'open fire' and 'I need to reload.'
His SIERA is still a sparkling 3.11
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
is that his daughter?
happy 3.11 birthday, siera!!!
interesting
I wonder if this isn’t partially an artifact of small samples, though. As you pointed out, the problem didn’t seem to be nearly so evident in 2010. We can’t really read much into splits before then, since he was pitching out of the ’pen. Anyone here know whether or not he pitched out of the stretch even with the bases empty when Seattle used him in relief?
An interesting comparison might be Tim Lincecum. Obviously, Morrow’s gb-rates aren’t as good as Lincecum’s, but Lincecum’s had a stark drop in gb-rate with runners on as well, about 5% each season.
The other difficulty is disentangling problems with pitching from the stretch from pitchers just generally doing worse with runners on
MLB-wide:
none on: .252 / .314 / .401
runners on: .260 / .332 / .401
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
by the way,
ran quick numbers to determine the impact described above (baseball-wide difference in obp/slg with runners on) and found that the difference in expected R/G is (4.56 – 4.22) = 0.34 runs per game
The difference in Morrow’s xFIP between situations with runners on and situations with the bases empty is 3.82 – 3.22 = 0.6 runs.
I guess disentangling these factors really wasn’t so difficult after all . . . Morrow’s definitely worse than the rest of the league. The question then becomes, is 0.3 runs per game over the course of this season enough to say that he’s that much worse?
Of course, there’s also the argument that the league (on average) struggles from the stretch, though, if you’re going to argue that, I don’t see how it’s necessarily fair to hold that against Morrow. Perhaps it is something for him to work on, but how much he can do about it, I’m not sure.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I think you make some good points about runners on base
but I’d still like to see more changeups and curveballs. Morrow’s fastball should be a big asset for him – the fact that it isn’t suggests to me that hitters are sitting on it.
"Let us go forth awhile, and get better air in our lungs. Let us leave our closed rooms... The game of ball is glorious." - Walt Whitman
Now that I've calmed down from last night
I think you make interesting points regarding Morrow. Your exact points (pitch selection and command while pitching from the stretch) were discussed in the comments section of a FanPost I made about a month ago regarding Morrow’s problems with runners on base this year.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
I have no idea whether or not this is true but what about fatigue?
Morrow’s OPS dramatically jumps up when he reaches 75 pitches.
1-25: .713 (.714 this year)
26-50: .600 (.594)
51-75: .707 (.698)
76-100: .849 (.826)
101+: .837 (.868)
He has shown the ability to strand runners as a reliever (career 77.6%) compared to 68% as a starter.
Maybe he just doesn’t have the stamina yet and could be why he is struggling to leave runners on.
his velocity dips pretty quickly at high pitch counts
i’m not sure if its because he throws too many per inning or just can’t throw 100 pitches consistently well.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Check dustin parkes twitter
He has them
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
by Pikachu on Sep 8, 2011 1:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
68% isn't that far off from 72%, which is the norm
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
isn't it the mean, not the norm?
what i mean is that, in most ways, Morrow pitches like a better than average pitcher, so his strand-rate should be better than the average pitcher’s.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
But strand rate hasnt yet been proven to be a skill.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
by Pikachu on Sep 8, 2011 1:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
if you're trying to be semantic about it,
nothing can ever be proven
but if we’re ready to accept overwhelming evidence as “proof,” then stranding runners is a skill in the sense that pitching well allows you to strand more runners because strikeouts don’t go for hits
per fangraphs:
The only case where pitchers have been shown to have some control over their LOB% is with high strikeout pitchers. Pitchers that record high numbers of strikeouts can pitch their way out of jams more easily than a pitcher that relies upon their team’s defense, so they are able to maintain higher than league average LOB%s
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
i don't think so
there isn’t a big correlation if I recall.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Great point, never thought about that
It makes some sense, but gbers should have higher babip, resulting in higher strand-rates.
on the other hand, they give up fewer extrabase hits, which should suppress strand-rate as well (because it’s easier to either 1) score from second (since you’re already there, if you’ve doubled or 2) score from first on a double).
Though each of those three factors (including DPs, of course) should affect strand-rate only slightly, there should be a significant effect of each and they should be acting in isolation of one another (though, in small samples, there would certainly be DP x babip and xBasehit x babip interactions, I think these should cancel out in larger samples).
If we’re trying to figure out which type of pitcher would have a better strand-rate, I’d think we could either regress strand-rate on each of those factors (DP-rate, babip, and xBasehit-rate) to determine the relative importance of each factor in isolation.
I would not approach the problem by simply regressing strand-rate on pitcher flyball-rate (or gb-rate) because, over large samples, pitcher batted ball splits are significantly affected by K-rate (high strikeout pitchers tend to pitch high in the strike zone and give up a lot of flyballs). While babip is weakly correlated (not necessarily affected by, Matt Swartz!) with k-rate, I think the correlation is much weaker. Thus, regressing strandrate on babip (instead of batted ball splits) should give us a more accurate representation.
I don’t know that this has been done before and [I certainly think] it would be really cool to see the results. Though, to be honest, half of the fun is trying to figure out the factors that should (theoretically) affect it.
As an interesting aside, check out Tyler Clippard’s strand-rate here
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
(by the way, when I said
babip should affect strand-rate only slightly, I meant that the differences in babip ascribed to pitcher batted ball splits. Should have clarified that)
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
morrow is hiding his offspeed stuff
he showed it the first year for us to impress us, and now hes having this down season so that next year when we make the playoff push hitters will be surprised by his other pitches because they don’t remember him having it from the previous year.
its all part of the plan
Total Internet Points: 999
make him the closer
I think the Jays need to consider him to be the closer next year. He should have no trouble going 1-2 innings. The Jays haven’t had a solid closer for years now. Look at all the blown saves this year.
/puches self in face
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
*punches
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
not that I think Morrow becoming a reliever isn't ever going to happen
But the phrase “blown saves” automatically makes me punch myself in the face
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Noooooooooo!
He’s not having a great year, but he’s still far more valuable as a starting pitcher than as a closer. Seattle made that mistake with him. We saw last year that he is quite capable of starting effectively.
FWIW, just how many more saves do you think the Jays would have this year? Given that all closers blow saves from time to time, the answer is likely to be only a few more. However, because Morrow is no longer starting, you have a rookie or very mediocre veteran starting in his place and you have lost a few games that Morrow would have won.
but Jose Valverde NEVER blows a save!
That’s why the Tigers are going to the playoffs! They never blow saves!
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
You can't argue with that logic
Brad Lidge didn’t blow a save either in ’08 when the Phillies won the World Series. Science!
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
i personally think he should ditch the stretch delivery
just go full windup whether or not runners are on or not.
of course, this is assuming that his stretch delivery is the problem, which it may or may not be.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
and have everybody not jose molina
go first to third every time they get on base? and steal home too…
Total Internet Points: 999
by Bowling_Guy25 on Sep 8, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions
stealing 3rd, even with a full windup, is pretty hard
unless its a fast player
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Getting Blanked has a good study on this
http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2011/09/08/the-curious-case-of-brandon-morrow/
it also states that his average FB velocity doesn’t drop by that much even at high pitch counts.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
the problem with that conclusion is:
why does it take the batters until the 3rd or 4th time facing him to realize what his gameplan is? they have advanced scouting and know how morrow pitches before the game even starts. it’s definitely possible that as the game goes on, they get morrow’s timing down better and are thus able to make better contact, but i find it highly unlikely that they aren’t expecting fastballs up in the zone until the 3rd or 4th time through.
theres a pitch f/x about morrow's location in the 75~100 pitch range
its much more wilder than from 1~75 range
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
i dunno those charts look basically the same to me
if anything, i think he’s avoiding the middle of the zone better after pitch 75 than before
there are really only two things going on with him right now
with men on base, he’s getting a lot fewer groundballs, and his BABIP is through the roof.
the first one almost certainly has something to do with how he’s pitching. whether he’s intentionally doing it, or is struggling with mechanics, who knows.
the second one is the tougher one. he could be making more hittable pitches, possibly due to mechanical issues. or, he could just be getting unlucky. we’re looking at less than 200 balls in play here. a .350 BABIP in that small a sample is probably like one standard deviation away from the league average. i wouldn’t be surprised if we’re searching for an explanation when there really isn’t one.
He has had zeru GIDP's this year
That seems to me to be more than one standard deviation.
also makes the hitting the wall or high pitch counts less plausible, because he worked with runners on all year and has runners on in the early innings also.
However it does give credence to the stretch mechanics/unable to throw strikes down in the zone theory.
that's just from having a really low groundball rate with runners on base
and due to bad luck. i mean, he still has a 30% groundball rate with runners on. the only way that translates to no GIDP is from some combination of poor fielding behind him and bad luck.
actually, i wonder if this explains most of the ERA-xFIP gap
based on his current groundball rate and number of plate appearances with runners on first, i wonder how many “expected double plays” he should have. the reduction in outs coupled with the extra baserunners due to his groundballs not being turned into double plays might be able to explain most of the differential.
it would be nice to have hit f/x data
to see how hard those groundballs have been hit . . . weakly hit grounders don’t turn into double plays and it would be interesting to see if it’s an issue of 1) him completely fooling batters when he actually gets grounders; 2) him not fooling batters at all so balls are hit harder and going through; or 3) just statistical noise
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
This makes me wonder
because he worked with runners on all year and has runners on in the early innings also
He’s had fewer runners on in early innings, though, no? In pitches 51-75, OBP is .319, pitches 76-100, OBP is .358, pitches 100+, OBP is .368. I wonder if the fact that he’s working with runners on more late in the game is skewing our results. It would be interesting to see batted ball data nested within pitch count data (though we might be looking at samples that are too small to glean much from)
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
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