The Jays of 2012
by Andr K on Sep 9, 2011 10:23 PM EDT
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The 2011 Bluejays season is winding down, with a miniscule chance of making the playoffs. With seasons like this I always keep myself hopeful by predicting the next year of the BlueJays.
It seems that at the end of the previous couple of years, many have said that next year is the year for the jays. Sigh...
It seems that our future is really bright, thanks to amazing trades and drafting of players by our Greek God, AA.
Who knows maybe 2012 will be the year that the Jays begin to contend in the AL East,
Still its too early to tell, so lets hope for the best and prepare for the worst
My Last Year prediction were absolutely terrible but I'm going to give it another shot!
2012 Bluejays Lineup:
Take this lineup with a grain of salt because anything can really happen, im more focused on the players from who we have.
1. Yunel Escobar SS, R
2. Colby Rasmus CF, L
3. Jose Bautista RF/3B, R
4. * Edwin Encarnacion, DH, R
5. Adam Lind , 1B/DH, L
6. Brett Lawrie, 3B, R
7. Kelly Johnson, 2B, L **
8. JPA, C, R
9. Thames/Snider, OF, L ***
* Possible signing or trade of a big name, such as Prince Fielder
** Depends on if we sign him or we let him go
*** I have no idea just trying to fit who I believe will be in the lineup
Players who will most definitely be here in 2012 (Oh who am I kiddin', who know's what AA will do) *
Yunel Escobar: He's getting a bit older and will be turning 29 in 2012, his bat is a must in our lineup as he is productive and maintains a great average. (my only knock on him is when he grounds out, he doesn't seem to sprint or even try to beat out a throw).
Stats Prediction: .300 average, 10-15 HR, 60 RBI's , 5-10 SB.
Colby Ramus: One of the pieces for the future of the Jays. Been Hearing a lot about his potential to hit 30 HR and steal 30 bases. In my opinion he's going to start to prove why he was such a stellar prospect and put up good numbers up on the boards. He need to stay healthy and continue to improve his swing. He is only turning 26 next year so he is still a young prospect.
Stats Prediction: Average of .270, 25-30, HR, 80 RBI's, 15-20 SB
Jose Bautista: This guy is the definition of hustle and heart, he's constantly hustling and trying to do anything to help his team win. Unfortunately he has been plagued by lack of protection this year. He will be turning 32 next year and I do believe we will see a slight decrease in his numbers, but in my opinion he will be playing into his late 30's.
Stats Prediction: .300 average, 30-35 HR'. 100 RBI's, leads MLB in walks again
Adam Lind: Adam Lind is one of my favorite players and it sucks to see him struggle this year. A lot of people are kicking lind for his 250 average, 24 Hr's and 79 rbi's, saying that they're disappointed. It may be a little; however I think many people fail to realize that he's missed over a month of playing this year. Lind will be turning 29 next year and In my opinion will be entering the most important season of his career. He should be rather disappointing im sad to say next year.
Stats Prediction: .250 average, 20 HR's, 75-80 RBI's
Brett Lawrie: This Kid is absolutely ridiculous eh?! What a AAA and MLB season he's had this year! He's definitely a player to build around and he's only 21! (turning 22 in 2012). In my opinion he will bat in the 6th spot next year and before all the angry mob comes and tries to maul me, i have to say that he is very young and is not ready for a high spot in the batting order, however in a year or two i believe he will be taking over bautista's third spot in the order.
Stats Prediction: .280-.300 average, 15-25 HR'S, close to 80 RBI's, LEADS MLB IN SWAG and Minutes in BEAST MODE
JPA: JP has had a good rookie season as he has the Bluejays record for HR's for a catcher. My only nock on him is his low batting average, yet I am not that worried.
Stats Prediction: 225-240 Average, 25 HR's, 75 RBI's
*All Stats are barring injuries
Starting PItching
- Ricky Romero
- Brandon Morrow
- Brett Cecil
- Dustin Mcgowan
- Henderson Alvarez/Kyle Drabek
Ricky Romero: I'm not completely sold that Ricky Romero is our long time ACE, however his numbers were amazing this year. I expect his to break out this year and be another fill in for the all star game next year. He will be turning 28 in 2012
Stats Prediction: 220 IP, 3.20 ERA, 187 K's, 1.2 WHIP, Record: 18-10
Brandon Morrow: He's done nothing to prove to our team that he's a legit no. 1 or 2. He has the stuff to dominate but consistency is an issue. I expect to break out as well and bid to become our teams ACE in the 2013 season. He will be turning 28 in 2012.
Stats Prediction: 200 IP, 3.70 ERA, 220 K's, 1.35 Whip, Record: 16-8
Brett Cecil: Really struggled early on but is starting to improve and regain his 2010 form. I don't expect him to become a great starter and in my opinion he will lose his spot in the rotation as the no. 3 and will fall to 4 or 5 in 2013. He's still young and will be turning 26 in 2012.
Stats Prediction: 175 IP, 4.3 ERA, 120 K's, 1.4 WHIP, Record 11-10
Dustin Mcgowan: what a great story right? I strongly believe that he will be in the starting rotation and make up for lost time next year and prove himself to be a consistent started for out beloved Bluejays. He is turning 30 in 2012 and will probably have his innings cut to save his arm.
Stats Prediction: 145 IP, 3.5 ERA, 120 K's, 1.2 WHIP, Record, 9-6
Henderson Alvarez: He's having a good year with both AA and the Jays, and will continue the trend in 2012, He's another one of our young guns and will be turning 22 in 2012.
Stats Prediction: 175 IP, 3.6 ERA, 150 K's, 1.3 WHIP, 10-7
Kyle Drabek: This is a questionable call as he has had a very inconsistent season this year. He's only 24 and will be turning 25 next year. In my opinion he will struggle and be sent down but will bring it around when he's called up in 2012
Stats Prediction: 100 IP, 4.5 ERA, 55 K's, 1.5 WHIP, 6-6
Tell Me what you think and your predictions!
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i think you're a little optimistic on alvarez
and a little pessimistic on drabek.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Yea, its do to with Drabek's terrible season with Las Vegas
Alvarez may do the same considering he has been to LV
I'm curious to ask....What is your prediction for SB for Lawrie next year?
and I wouldn’t really say Bautista is the definition of hustle and heart…hes not really gonna sprint to first if he hits a routine ball unlike people such as Mike McCoy, Edwin Encarnacion (sometimes), Lawrie, and others.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
Here is my stolen bases predictions for 2012.
From your 2012 Blue Jays lineup 1 through 9.
1. Yunel Escobar: 5-10, (although I think he is capable of nabbing around 15 a year)
2. Colby Rasmus: 10-25 (I think his ceiling for stealing bases is probably around mid 20’s to low 30’s.
3. Jose Bautista: 5-10 (although I think he could nab maybe a little less than Escobar but still around the 15 area, he can move when he turns on the jets)
4. Edwin Encarnacion: 5-10 (he has lost some weight and is quicker than few would expect)
5. Adam Lind: 1-5 (not the quickest guy out there)
6. Brett Lawrie: 20-25 (Lawrie is kind of an odd one, but I think he could probably nab 25 a year, for his size, Brett can MOVE!)
7. Kelly Johnson: 10-20 (Hes a pretty quick guy, averages about 12 SB in a 162 Game Season, but I think he could nab 15, maybe even 20)
8. J.P. Arencibia: 1-5 (hes a catcher)
9. Eric Thames: 5-15 (much like Lawrie, Thames is a curious case for me, he looks like he runs really well for a big guy, I’m just not sure he would be aggressive and take 15)
Don’t judge me guys, I’m a speedster in baseball, stealing is one of my favourite things to do, speed kills..
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
I agree, I got a fettish for speed and love watching the Jays play some small ball. Also if Snider gets a full year, I think he could steal as many as thirty, but probably closer to twenty.
Yeah, I agree, I love me some speed, and yeah, I think Snider could probably nab 15-25 bases given regular playing time.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
well it seems that he's always a threat to steal when he's on base
I’ll guess anywhere from 10-20
Definitely not.
Certainly agree on the hustle and heart comment. Bautista not running out routine grounders, whining about clear strike three calls too often, and throwing his bat in disgust too often because he hit a pop up instead of a home run are all getting old. (Yes I’m a Jays fan.)
by TheGP Baseball on Sep 15, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll be so happy when they get rid of the "Hustle & Heart (2.0)" slogan.
It is close to one of the dumberest slogans I have ever laid eyes on.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
IMO, for the jays to compete next year, they need two 100 rbi men; thinking the other would be lawrie. I would put him at 300-320 for BA, and 90-100 ribbies, esp. if he goes to third in the lineup. If Rasmus gets that, I would be happy.
if mcgowan gets 145 innings, then I think he gets about 12 wins, but am not confident in the robustness of his arm (hope I am wrong). sorry, I am not sure if we see drabek back in the starting rotation next year; hope I am wrong here too.
Again, to compete, we need 70-80 rbis out of second base with better OBP (2B should usually be good baserunners – quick, which was Hill, but he needed to get on base more), and at least 80 out of the DH spot.
I don’t want to see another Overbay at 1st, which is what Lind seems to be becoming (good defence, sporadic on offence). your prediction for next year almost mirrors what Overandout did in 2010 (20HR, 67RBI), and that was unacceptable. 1st base has to be more productive on a contender, at least 80-90 ribbies, with 30 HRs. So Lind, get your back better, and take care of yourself better through the season!
These RBI numbers would indicate pretty balanced production from top to bottom, and that is what the Sox/Yanks are getting; we need to approach or match.
I think morrow is still a 500 pitcher next year. we still need a true no. 2 (trade or develop).
finally, we need a bullpen that holds leads at the same rate the sox/yanks do. if we can’t hit with them, then we &^$#@ need better pitching.
Snider next year – not holding my breath.
I see RBIs
and I cry
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
just the idea of using RBIs as any kind of indicator
brings tears to my eyes.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Can you stand listening to Buck?
There are times I have to mute,
oh pikachu. I wish I could be as smart as you. Considering that NY and Bos are 1 and 2 in runs scored, I though, hmm, maybe we have to make up about 100 runs. alas, I a mere mortal can only use a number I am capable of understanding.
you're right
the Jays likely need more runs scored (and batted in) from a number of positions than they’re getting right now. But the way that you describe it is meaningless. A player can score lots of runs because he hits in front of lots of good players or score fewer runs because he doesn’t, but those numbers don’t demonstrate how much he’s contributed to the team winning.
As an example, Ichiro Suzuki played 162 games and had a good season at the plate last year (wOBA: .338, wRC+ 113; .315 / .359 / .394). He’s played only 143 games so far (because the season obviously isn’t over yet) and is having an atrocious season this year (wOBA: .296, wRC+ 87; .277 / .315 /.340).
2010 Ichiro: 74 R, 43 RBI
2011 Ichiro: 74 R, 39 RBI
Using Runs scored and RBI for individual players makes it seem like 2010 Ichiro is worse simply because Chone Figgins was historically bad hitting behind him. That doesn’t make sense and it is why people criticize what you’ve said.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
lets not act like anyone's a victim here
if you’re putting ideas out on the internet, everyone else on the board as the right to comment on it. Just because I don’t agree with you, you don’t have to get all snarky
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
We should get 9 guys who put up 100 RBI seasons
Then we’d have 900 RBIs!
whoa
that’s, like, genius
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I didn't do bullpen
because AA blew up our bullpen getting rasmus, so I’m not even going to guess who’s going to be in it,
Interesting thoughts that you’ve put up, I believe that next year we will pass the rays and be contending for wildcard next year. We have the talent; however if JP, Brett start to have long sophomore slumps, and colby does not prove himself, then were in for another long year…
Rays have talent too, especially starting pitching
and Joe Maddon.
Jays will have to play great ball to pass them.
I am predicting that the "experts" will pick the 2012 Blue Jays to finish in 5th place, behind the Baltimore Orioles.
Because they never learn.
Follow me @BBBMinorLeaguer | 2011 Jays record while in attendance: 9-11 (.450)
I predict they don't
I’m guessing we’ll be picked for 4th, ahead of the O’s.
That is if we don’t sign any big name FA’s. I’m sure we will someday, but i’ll believe it when I see it.
I dunno but even you guys have to admit we were playing with a lot of unproven talent and holdover crap at the beginning of the season.
Now, with the lineup seemingly set – we need MOAR PITCHING!
Once over the hill, you pick up speed.
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
Although you can certainly make a case for 1st base.
(Votto, Votto, Votto)
Once over the hill, you pick up speed.
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
We might get him as a free agent in a couple of years.
But in a trade? He would cost us a fortune.
by Defense Counts! on Sep 11, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the only guy guaranteed to be in the rotation next year is Romero.
I like Morrow well enough; but I don’t think he’s done enough through two seasons here for anyone to think it’s a given he’s a Jay next year, although I understand that he’ll probably be back with the team.
...?
He has a couple of arbitration years left. Unless traded, he’s Jay property. And there’s no way in hell management moves Morrow. The only way I can see that happening is if we trade him for Wily Mo Pena.
Once over the hill, you pick up speed.
"Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."
Ya, I thought that might be unpopular.
Although, I never suggested at all that he was a free agent. I don’t know where that is coming from.
I also suggested that he would likely be back with the team; however, if management is looking to next year to begin their playoff push then I would hope that we aren’t throwing labels like ‘untouchable’ at a pitcher who has been very inconsistent this year,
No one and I repeat, no one is untouchable,
but the Jays price on Morrow and other teams price will most likely be vastly different.
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
exactly
no teams are actually going to give up proper value for him at the moment
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I agree with everything you said there.
The Jays have made a considerable investment in Morrow the last two seasons, and will want to see that through. That’s one of many reasons why he will likely be back with the Jays next year.
Look, I get the feeling that these comments are being taken out of context. Brandon Morrow is a good pitcher. He’s also 26 years old and hasn’t exactly shined this season. My point is, and was, that Morrow should not be a lock for next season, because his performance doesn’t warrant it.
Whether other teams will offer up enough to aquire him is another conversation entirely.
what performance are you looking at though?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Grady Sizemore
Any interest in signing him? He’s had a lot of injuries the past 2 years but shouldn’t be that expensive if he is available—Cleveland has a $8.5M option with a $500K buyout. He also doesn’t cost a draft pick. He’s 29 and can still play CF. He would probably cost at least $5M based on hit potential. He could be interesting as a DH/backup outfielder and might avoid injuries if used that way.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 4:12 AM EDT reply actions
Im fairly certain cleveland will want him back next year
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I have no idea. I’m just going off of this article
$8.5M would seem to be a bit high for these WAR values:
2009 – 2.0
2010 – -0.3
2011 – 0.8
What is your certainty based on?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 5:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Here is a different Bleacher’s Report article with the Top 20 players potentially available via trade.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 6:16 AM EDT up reply actions
hmm, lets see
1. He’s a fan favourite in Cleveland
2. Cleveland is “competing”
3. They don’t have anyone better (that I know of) to play CF
4. He is a career 122 wRC+ CF with gold glove defence
5. $8.5 M isn’t that much for a player who, when healthy, is an MVP candidate.
This would be assuming that the Indians think he can stay healthy next year.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Okay, if he is available are should the Jays be interested?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions
if he's available then every team other than Boston, the Yankees, the Pirates, and possibly the Braves, Dodgers, and the Phillies should be interested
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
they should be interested
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
It isn’t a slam dunk. He hasn’t had a good since since 2008.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions
and when he was good, he was fricking good
and he’s not expensive, and he’s not old.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
so basically, he's the hitting version of Santana
except much cheaper
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Yes, which is why I asked if we should be interested.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Thats like asking "should we be interested in Justin Upton?"
yes, of course we should be interested, Doesn’t mean he’s available though.
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
obviously Sizemore should be more available than Upton
but considering the Indians’ situation, I highly doubt they don’t pick up the option
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I don’t think it is certain for the following reasons:
1. The Indians have the 24th highest revenues in mlb
2. I don’t think anyone would project Sizemore returning to 2008 productivity levels even if healthy.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 7:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Here is an ESPN article on Sizemore’s option
In a way it is like Aaron HIll’s option but with a better player and one more year since he had a successful season.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions
"hmmm"
In a way it is like Aaron HIll’s option but with a better player
so it’s not actually like Aaron Hill’s option.
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
It is like Aaron HIll’s option because the team is trying to decide whether to pick up the option on a player that hasn’t been effective for a long period of time.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
okay no worries. I don’t think they have a font for that yet :)
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Sizemore will likely be a free agent either this year or next year. What do you think he will receive for a contract?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Teams will take a chance on him, no doubt
I can see a 2/20 deal at the very least
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
or a 1/8~10 deal
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
I can see him in that range too. Maybe $8M with a $10M option. Would you sign him with the Jays for that? I’m not sure given that I’d probably want him to DH a lot. I don’t think his body can handle the everyday OF role anymore.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
him playing outfield for the Jays
is worse than him playing elsewhere because half of his games would be on turf (actually more, when you include games against the Rays), instead of grass
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
true, I’d mainly want him to DH though.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Also true. He would be a risky signing anyway. His ability to be a backup CF does add a bit of value. What do you think for his free agent value?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
but really
Bleacher Report?
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
It is a list of potential free agents, they all seem to be potential free agents. What’s the problem?
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions
because
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
off topic: Lawrie vs Marcum WAR race
Lawrie 2.6
Marcum 2.8
Pretty amazing considering Lawrie has only been playing for 1.5 months.
by JaysSaskatchewan on Sep 12, 2011 4:13 PM EDT reply actions
Am I the only one who doesn't think the Jays need to make any off-season moves besides filling 2B?
Either Johnson accepts arbitration or AA signs someone to play 2B and let the rest stand pat. Let EE, Francisco and Rauch walk to get picks, let Camp walk as well. Most positions are covered (CF, RF, 3B, SS and C) and LF/1B/DH can be filled with some combo of Snider, Lind, Thames, Cooper and Loewen. Romero and Morrow are rotation locks and let Cecil, McGowan, Alvarez, Drabek and the AA guys fight it out for the rest of the rotation spots. Villanueva, Janssen, Litsch, Perez are probably bullpen locks, with the rest being some combo of the surplus rotation guys and guys like Carreno, Beck, Mills, etc.
The Jays have a lot of guys that need to be given a look in the Majors to see if they belong. Next year is probably that year, then look to contend in 2013. Of course, AA will probably look at trades as well, but I think the Jays would field a decent team with what they have.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
I actually think we will have a really good bullpen next year..
With the likes of Farquhar, Carreno, Janssen, Villanueva, Perez, Litsch, Uviedo, LaMura, etc.
Not changing my signature until Hechavarria is promoted to the big leagues.
[Funny phrase about how few followers I have on Twitter]
I think having another good starter would really help our playoffs chances
but even without doing so, we probably have the 4th or 5th best team in the AL next year
Sad, Drunk, And Poorly
My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we'll change the world. - JL
Potentially
With that many young starters, it’s expecting a lot for them all to come together at the same time. I think the Jays still need another quality, middle of the rotation starter and a bullpen piece or two along with 2B.
The Jays could use a big bat, but it’s not mandatory. If Snider bounces back, Cooper keeps improving, and Thames takes another step, they might reduce that need.
One thing is clear though, that this team is really only a few pieces away from contention.
What would you do for second base?
think Johnson brings enough to the table that the Jays could compete with him without having to make big upgrades elsewhere?
"Look at me! I'm Tomokazu Ohka of the Montreal Expos!"
I think Johnson is enough
Johnson + Rasmus + Lawrie replacing Hill + Patterson + Nix/McDonald for a large portion of the season is a substantial improvement. I mean, an upgrade at 1B would definitely be the next position I would look at, but if Lind’s problems are related to an ailing back, and he can come back strong next year, then it is not as much as a hole as it was this year.
I agree with a lot of people, that starting pitching may be our weakest point with all the young pitchers being considered. It looks like AA is building the bullpen in a way that could mitigate this problem though – with Villaneuva, Litsch, Perez, and possibly Beck and Mills coming out of the pen next year, you have pitchers who can put up a lot of innings out of the pen, and come in to start some games if (well, when) some of the young pitchers struggle.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Sep 13, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
enough for what, if I may ask?
let’s look at this WAR wise (my hypothesis is that these changes/additions won’t be enough, but I’m writing this before I do my own estimations)
this team, as it stands, is on pace for 82 wins.
replacing Jayson Nix (0.8 WAR pace) and McDonald (0.5 WAR pace given 3B defense) with Brett Lawrie (5 WAR, let’s be crazy) nets 3.5 wins. 85.5 wins.
replacing Corey Patterson (replacement level) and Rajai Davis (call him 1 WAR player) with Colby Rasmus (3 WAR) is a 2 win gain. 87.5 wins.
replacing Aaron Hill (-1 WAR) with Kelly Johnson (3 WAR) is a 4 win gain. 91 or 92 wins. I don’t think that’s enough.
Total Internet points: 10 000
Ah, but what about improvements in pitching as well?
In terms of WAR, we got nothing out of our 4th and 5th starters and our relievers probably net out to replacement level for the entire bullpen.
I expect it’s in the area of pitching that the Jays will see the most improvement.
on my phone so can't check
But I highly highly doubt the bullpen is replacement level given Janssen, Litsch and FF. And the regression of Romero will certainly hurt the pitching improvement, no matter who our 4/5 guys are
Total Internet points: 10 000
by benk on Sep 13, 2011 11:53 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Here are the numbers:
1.8WAR from the BP this year. Notables are -0.7 for Rauch, +1.1 Janssen, +0.9 Zep and Frasor combined (lost of course). Litsch and FF combined for +0.4 out of the pen. Interestingly, Villaneuva was worth 0.2 out of the pen, and 1.0 as a starter. That may be one place we can get better production out of the pen.
I’m not sure I agree that we won’t see improvement from the starting rotation. Romero is down in WAR from last year, though results on the field are most likely surpassing this because, as you say, he is due for regression on (primarily on LOB %). After Romero and Morrow, our best SP are:
Villaneuva: 1WAR
Cecil & Jo-Jo: 0.8WAR
Alvarez: 0.7WAR
Litsch: 0.4 WAR
I know it is asking alot of young pitchers, but if 2 of Drabek, McGowan, Alvarez, and Cecil can put together even a decent year (2WAR+), then we should be alright next year.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Sep 13, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
This is what I meant
that the position player upgrades already done should provide a significant boost next year (though I would say 12 WAR is a bit optimistic, more likely in the 8-10 range since it is not over a full season).
WIth a minimal increase in BP performance (say, 1 WAR) and a small improvement on starting pitching (2 WAR), that gets us to, as you say, 90-92 wins. IF another wild card is added, there is a good chance that we are competing for it at this time next year.
Of course, adding a Fielder, etc. would improve the team, so if it happens I would be ecstatic. This musing is more to show that we can have optimism moving into next year even if none of the big free agents sign in the off-season, since the improvements have already been put into place
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Sep 13, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Sox (and maybe Yanks too)
Are likely to improve, though – even if by no other method than Crawford regression
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by benk on Sep 13, 2011 12:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
definitely
That is why the optimism is based on another wild card team … we are already competitive with all teams but the top 2, assuming this team from the start of the season. If things go well and we also make a big move or two (which I am all in favor of even if it doesn’t sound like it here), then we may even be able to compete with the top 2 if one of them flounders
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Sep 13, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve got no problems signing Johnson to a longer term contract. His defense is good enough, and I love his ability to take a walk along with some power. Then again, I wasn’t against bringing back Hill on a cheaper deal.
If either of them fall apart and Hech is still tearing up AAA with his bat, you shift him and Yunel midseason, or you make a trade.
Mcgowen never had a era of 3.50 when he was healthy, I doubt he is going to do it after three years of arm problems. I dont want a guy in rotation cuz he is a good story he still has to earn his spot and prove he can pitch to MLB hitters
I found a delivery in my flaw
he didn't have a 3.5 ERA
but he pitched to a sub-4 FIP when players were scoring more than half a run per game more than they do this year. a 4 WAR player is a 4 WAR player, but obviously he has to prove he still has it
and as a side note, can you try not posting your whole comment in the title box? it’s kind of hard to read.
Total Internet points: 10 000
Right
comparing his ERA in 2007 and 2008 to the ERAs that guys are posting today is a massive mistake. League average FIP was 4.47 in 2007 and is 3.94 now. As you said, half a run is a huge difference
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