Jays Acquire Jason Frasor
He's back!!! Makes acquiring Colby Rasmus look even better!
Editors note: more to follow later, since I am stuck at the inlaws for the moment
5 months ago
JaysFan101
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This is mind-boggling
considering the guys we just gave up to get him…I really don’t understand this deal from the White Sox perspective. Great to see Frasor back on the team. Bullpen is looking better and better.
Frasor
This was a dollar deal by the Sox – Williams was looking to cut
Unfortunatly -this^
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 1, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
Don’t care, I alike having him in the pen
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Always liked the guy. Happy to see him back
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
I wonder what this means for the 'pen
I hope this means they’ll try Carreno as a starter again and not Perez
That may be the plan
Send him back to AA…don’t know that I like it though. He has trouble going beyond the 4th inning last year at times, has the prototypical mix for a reliever, and throwing all those sliders…each is an injury risk, so you’d rather he use the bullets at the MLB level.
I read somewhere (wish I could remember...)
that AA wanted to put Carreno in AAA to start out next year.
I believe it was mentioned on the fan
I know what you mean though, I remember reading/hearing the same thing and I remember it being AA directly.
I'm really hoping that we see Carreno in the pen this year
He looked real good in his stint last year.
Wilnerness590 Mike Wilner
I wouldn’t put him as a favourite now. Starter in AA or AAA to start the year if all goes well. @mattdoublem: @Wilnerness590 Carreno?
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Hmmm
They still see him as a starter long-term?
that or trade bait
he’ll likely bring back more if he develops into a legit starter
I guess so
But he did so well as a reliever, I would’ve thought they’d give him a chance to stick with the big-league club.
ya, I hoped he'd stick in the pen this year too
but I guess the Jays had other plans
That, too, is a possibility
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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True
But you have to weigh that against the risks of trying to do that.
Carreno’s never failed as a starter, but he would lose control frequently in the middle innings last season.
He throws a lot of sliders, so that’s an injury risk. You want to get value out of him before he blows out an arm
is there any evidence
that slider-heavy guys are more injury prone? Randy Johnson only threw fastballs and sliders and he was great for a long time without any significant injuries
Some pitchers are more durable than others. Randy Johnson was an intimidating freak of nature.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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I can’t think of a link off the top of my head…if something comes to mind I’ll link it.
I mean, it comes down to them placing stress on arms. I believe, from memory, that susing 30+% sliders is associated with higher injury rates
My links are from Fangraphs
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/too-many-sliders/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brett-andersons-elbow-eaten-by-sliders/
And the answer is yes it is. Mind you SSS.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 1, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Here's a journal article
From the results section:
Pitch types were evaluated for their relationship to both
elbow and shoulder pain (Table 2). More than half of all
pitchers threw a change-up and more than half threw a
curveball. Use of the slider was much less common (14%).
Overall, only the slider was found to have a significant
relationship to elbow pain, and this relationship was especially
strong among 13- to 14-year-old pitchers (odds
ratio of 3.49). There was an overall 86% increased risk of
elbow pain among slider users. Use of the curveball accounted
for a 52% increased risk of shoulder pain, without
variation by age group. Use of the change-up pitch was
associated with a 12% reduction in the risk of elbow pain
and a 29% reduction in the risk of shoulder pain, although
neither association was statistically significant.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
Though
This is for youth baseball players
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
See fangraphs links above.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 1, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
I always saw him as a potential Ryan Dempster type of player, so seeing them try him out as a starter wouldn’t surprise me.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
I doubt it but they will let him start if he is in the minors to give him more pitches and innings to work on his stuff, control etc…
Perez stayed as a starter after he was sent down but mainly worked as a reliever since thats where he will likely be and it doesnt hurt to start to continue building that stamina.
If carreno doesnt crack the pen, he will start in AA or AAA.
by Sniderlover on Jan 1, 2012 2:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
So Rasmus for...
Zach Stewart, Edwin Jackson and Octavio Dotel, Scrabble and some cash?
And Dotel has already left, and Jackson will probably be leaving?
If Rasmus is a good centrefielder, is this a coup on par with the Tigers fleecing of the Marlins?
by eight_legged_freaks on Jan 1, 2012 1:58 PM EST reply actions
Also, I love Jason Frasor
Always have. Welcome back to Toronto Jason!
by eight_legged_freaks on Jan 1, 2012 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
Don't forget Cory Patterson!
We have a '70s throwback logo, an '80s throwback stadium, and we all wish it were the early '90s again.
Follow @ecb282
How could I forget the centrepiece of the deal?!
by eight_legged_freaks on Jan 1, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
You take that back, Brian Tallet all the way
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
You can’t really count both Jackson and the guys who were traded to get Jackson.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Jan 1, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Kenny Williams is an idiot
Frasor could have been a a Type B. Instead he picked up his option…so the White Sox get 2 low minor leaguers rather than a first round draft pick…idiotic.
And good on AA for continuing to pick the pocket of one of the few poor GMs left out there
honestly
I would probably take Jaye/Webb over a supplemental, particularly in next year’s draft. I think it’s a good trade for you guys, using your depth to solidify the pen, but I think it’s a fairly intriguing move for the White Sox, getting two arms with good upside. IIRC, Webb was more hyped than Jaye, but I think I like Jaye a bit better, as he’s a bit more projectable.
All in all, I think it makes sense for both sides.
Webb was more hyped than Jaye
I think it’s the other way around. I’ve heard Jaye’s name thrown around as one of our sleeper prospects. I haven’t heard a peep regarding Webb.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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I believe
I should’ve clarified. I believe Webb was more hyped in his draft year. He hasn’t progressed that much. I seem to recall folks suggesting that Webb had sandwich round talent that year.
Ah, okay
That makes more sense
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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Out of curiosity
Since I didn’t closely follow the 2010 draft at all…if he was thought of as fringey sandwich round talent, why did he fall all the way to the 17th round, as a college player. Was it money?
I believe so
but I’d have to actually look it up again. It’s been awhile.
I think he may have meant coming out of the draft. I’d definitiely agree that Jaye is the more valuabel of the two, right now.
And really, neither are top 40 in our system…though that speaks more to our system depth than anything..Jaye in particular could possibly be much higher in Chicago’s system, possibly near 20 or 25
Jaye has been pitching very well for us but projects to have a lower ceiling from what I’ve read. His ceiling is as a #5 starter or a middling reliever. Webb has not had the results to back it up yet, but is the proverbial “high ceiling guy”. His K/9 numbers are good and he throws hard. What has killed him so far is his BB/9 and his inconsistency. His ceiling; however, is as a back-end of the bullpen type guy. What we like to call a “shutdown reliever” though probably not used in the 9th.
update
Jays Journal had Webb listed as #45 on their prospect list and have a scoutinng report up that’s talks about him as a “thrower” with heat and a lot of potential but not much of an idea of how to pitch. Jaye was in their “just missed” list
So, the Rasmus deal is ultimately
To Toronto:
Colby Rasmus
Mark Teahen
P.J. Walters
Trever Miller
Brian Tallet
To Chicago:
Zach Stewart
Myles Jaye
Daniel Webb
To St. Louis:
Edwin Jackson
Marc Rzepczynski
Octavio Dotel
Corey Patterson
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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Brian Tallet still the most important piece
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Blasphemy!
Trever Miller has Tallet beat!
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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The team wouldn’t be the same without Teahen warming the bench
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Dare to include compensation picks?
Were there any?
Probably
Though, Jackson hasn’t signed anywhere yet.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
So essentially it boils down to
To Toronto:
3.5 years of Colby Rasmus
$12M of Mark Teahen’s salary
Some salary for P.J. Walters, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet
To Chicago:
6 years of Zach Stewart
Myles Jaye
Daniel Webb
To St. Louis:
2 months of Edwin Jackson
5 years of Marc Rzepczynski
2 months of Octavio Dotel
2 moths of Corey Patterson
2 1st round supplementals
And a Title that they totally wouldn’t have won with Rasmus as their CF
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
by Redonred on Jan 1, 2012 2:27 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Flags fly forever
But who knows what happens if that trade doesn’t happen…I’d be wary to make a causal link
When is the deadline for teams/players to accept/decline options for the upcoming season
Frasor has a $3.75M option for 2012. Did the White Sox already exercise it?
I believe the deadline already passed, and the White Sox did exercise his option.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
Welcome back Jason
always liked him but this time hopefully the delays won’t be that long lol
Toronto Sports Fan= Waiting, waiting, waiting.............then more waiting
Santos, Oliver, Frason, Janssen, Litch, Villan, Perez plus 1?
That is a pretty solid bullpen.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Also link from twitter is all broken like.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Duplicate got deleted:(
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Huh. The Jays bullpen looks like it’s shaping up to be one of the better ones in the game. Santos, Janssen, Frasor, Villanueva, Litsch, Oliver… that’s a nice mix of quality arms.
Frasor/ Janssen are good backups if Oliver’s arm decides to fall off.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Oliver is a lefty
If his arm falls off, we’ll be short on lefties, but I’m not worried in the least about that
I have faith in Perez
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
and was thinking of Oliver as the traditional “setup guy”
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
I’d prefer to see him as a situational lefty more than a set-up guy, especially with Janssen and Frasor now as set-up options in the 7th and 8th along with Oliver.
He’s not as bad as Dotel against opposite handed guys, and was quite good last year, but the year before was pretty bad. For me, the higher % of lefties he faces, the better
Oliver can be used to face more than just lefties, but he wasn’t signed to be the 8th inning guy, or even 7th. As the bullpen now stands, Santos is penciled in for the 9th, Janssen probably roughly penciled in the 8th (after proving himself last year), Frasor in the 7th (sliding back to the 8th if Janssen struggles or has gotten too many innings in recent games).
Just when I was getting a tad nervous
AA comes through! Great move!
by Gruber17 on Jan 1, 2012 2:39 PM EST via mobile reply actions
gregorMLB Gregor Chisholm
#BlueJays having 40 men on the 40-man roster means the club will need to make another move in the coming days to create space for D. Oliver.
5 minutes ag
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Yep
That was my next thought…candidates: Farina, Farquhar, Magnuson…the usual suspects, try to sneak them through and keep them
They are in the mix for a final bullpen spot no? Obviously one of them has to move anyways though. Teahan anyone?
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
RHP: Janssen, Frasor, Villaneuva, Litsch
LHP: Oliver
Closer: Santos
That leaves one spot…if it’s a lefty, probably Perez, righty I’d imagine Carreno has an inside track. So no room really for anyone at the major league league level from those guys.
Could go Teahen, but I don;t see it. Ou could look at Valbuena too
yes 7 not 8 der. anyways I’d go with Perez as well. Random spring training sucesses not withstanding.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
I think you are right, but the Jays did run 8 relievers last year in parts too.
I also think it is very likely that all of Frasor Janssen and Oliver see time in the 8th
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
7th and 8th I’d think…start with one of Frasor/Janssen, if there’s a couple tough lefties go to Oliver, then use the other
Regardless, I think they are a great group of options at the end of the game
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Whoops
Sorry, I misread what you had wrote…I read it as “NOT very likely…”
Yeah, I agree. It should be a very good mix
I like the quanity of reliable guys for the late innings. Less of a problem if our starters have a rough week.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Injuries / Slumps
At any given time, if our recent history is any indication, there is usually someone or somethree from the bullpen who is hurt or otherwise struggling. So, though, it makes sense in theory to postulate on which 7 will be in the starting roster, what Jays management seems to do and rightly so, is to ask themselves, “who are our 10 reliable major league relievers?” And they make sure that some of them (like Perez and Carreno) have options so they can be shuttled between LV and the big leagues if need be.
however
If we add another SP then McGowan or Cecil could end up in the pen. Cecil would be interesting.
Thus Perez wouldn’t be there.
by Rhinos on Jan 1, 2012 2:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Cecil is looking more and more like someone AA and Farrell like as one of our starters (talk of fitness regime etc), but that could mean they are trying to deal him in a package for a #2. McGowan will start or nothing; we have been told his arm isn’t up for the uncertainty of pitching out of the pen
It will be interesting to see how Farrell will use Santos as he is the obvious choice for the “closer” role
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Not according to Griffin. Only a setup guy…. What a joke
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Not a true closer till you are in your mid to late thirtys? Experience and all that I guess.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Welcome back, Jason.
Still scratching my head at Kenny Williams.
Could have traded Danks for a bunch of prospects but signed him
Traded Cost Controlled Closer… for a decent prospect.
Traded oft injured expensive OF for not much
Traded slightly expensive RP for not much.
???
Winning?
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 1, 2012 2:50 PM EST reply actions
Step 3 ….
Step 4 PROFIT
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Danks has a no-trade in his dirst year correct?
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Yes
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 1, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Love you too Jason!
Wilnerness590 Mike Wilner
Frasor:: “Crazy day, but good news. Happy to be back. My family and I are thrilled to be going back to Toronto”. #bluejays #jays
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Wilnerness590 Mike Wilner
Frasor: (When I was traded) felt like I was never coming back. Emotional day, 1st time I cried since I gave up 5 runs in Atlanta. #bluejays
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
by Redonred on Jan 1, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I cried after that game too... not really but I felt like it.
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/baseball/mlb/game/BlueJays_Braves/2009/05/24#box-score
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 1, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Look at the turnover of our roster.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
He married someone from TO right?
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
And the first time he screws up, it’ll be back to dumping on him.
It’s interesting. I thought he was terribly unappreciated, the type you only appreciate once he’s gone. SO he went, and now he’s back. Will he be more appreciated?
I’m still not his biggest fan, but whatever. He’s definitely an improvement over the likes of pitchers like Trever Miller and Brian Tallet.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
I could have lived with 03 Miller and 06-08 Tallet.
But they were horrible in their thankfully brief 2nd stints with the Jays.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 1, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions
0.0 fWAR 2003 Trever Miller?
Personally, I’d take the 1.0 fWAR 2004 Trever Miller. =P
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
Familiarity breeds contempt. Personally I always like him but he was around for a long time and does take a while to pitch.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
I think it really depended on where you were, I seem to remember most around here like having him with the jays
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Agreed
The only time I remember people really dumping on him were his failed closer roles in 2007 and 2009. Frasor’s always been one of the better RHP relievers in the game in my mind, and that’s seems to have been echoed.
Yeah
I didn’t mean here necessarily, I haven’t been around long enough to really know. Meant Jays fandom in general
To me general Toronto fandom seems to follow the newpaper media like they are holding a leash. Toronto has a lot of terrible writers.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
I don’t know if that’s entirely fair. Toronto has some fantastic writers like Elliot, they have some inconsistant writers like Griffin, and a few legitimately bad ones like Carson and Cox. The Jays blogosphere has been regarded by a lot of professionals as one of the most active and literate, especially considering our relative size as a fanbase.
Now, the people who call into the radio shows… those are the bizarro fans.
Fair. Baseball is miles kilometres ahead of hockey. This is while my bile comes from.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
I find Elliott good when he sticks to Canadian prospects and such. Great writer, but sometimes I find him quite out of touch with the big league level goings on, especially as it concerns compensation picks
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
Nice quote about Santos
Mike Wilner @Wilnerness590
Frasor: You guys are really going to like (Santos). I’ll set him up any day. I can’t believe Alex pulled him away from CHI #bluejays #jays
Wilnerness590 Mike Wilner
Frasor: This is great, I don’t know how else to convey that. It’s great. We’re thrilled. I can’t wait to put on those new uniforms.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Does this mean that Jason is Santos' Little Helper?
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 1, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 19 recs
I reckon I’ll rec that
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Made my laugh out loud
Still remember that episode when Bart used the name “Santos L. Halper” in his credit card scheme.
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 1, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Fangraphs WAR Projection
I found this comment from the Jays forum interesting:
All are based on FanGraphs:
Major Changes – 2B, 3B, CF, CL, Bullpen, Rotation
Jays 2011 2B (Hill/Johnson): 0 WAR
Jays 2012 2B (Johnson): Projected 3.7 WAR
Total Change: + 3.7 WAR
Jays 2011 3B (Bautista/Mcdonald/Lawrie/Encarnacion): 3.9 WAR
Jays 2012 3B (Lawrie): Projected 5.9 WAR
Total Change: + 2.0 WAR
Jays 2011 CF (Davis/Rasmus/Patterson): -0.5 WAR
Jays 2012 CF (Rasmus/Davis): Projected 3.6 WAR
Total Change: +4.1 WAR
Jays 2011 Bullpen (Rauch/Francisco/Dotel/Rzep/Camp): 0.7 WAR
Jays 2012 Bullpen (Santos/Oliver/Carreno/Perez/Random): 2.5 WAR
Total Change: +1.8 WAR
Jays 2011 Rotation (Romero/Morrow/Cecil/Reyes/Villanueva/Alvarez/Randoms): 9.4 WAR
Jays 2012 Rotation (Romero/Morrow/Alvarez/Cecil/McGowan/Randoms): 11.5 WAR
Total Change: +2.1 WAR
Additional Major Changes:
Bautista: -1.0 WAR
Arencibia: +1.0 WAR
Molina → Mathis: -1.0 WAR
Lind: +1.2 WAR
Janssen: -0.5 WAR
-
Grand Total: +13.0 WAR
Obviously there are a ton of flaws you can point out, and injuries will undoubtedly take a big toll, but there is some reason for optimism heading into 2012.
It’s from a reliable poster, as well. Though, 5.9 WAR from Lawrie in 2012? Seems optimistic to me.
Nonetheless, PLAYOFFS!!?
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
Going to ask about Lawrie’s projected WAR. I don’t know enough so I’ll ask. Do baseball rookies typically suffer a sophmore slump?
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Yep. As always can vary person to person
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
If Lawrie average 5.9 WAR
I’d be too happy
Obviously some flaws
but still encouraging. And did they forget to factor in Jayson Nix’s negative WAR in that?
A bit optimistic on a few
Lawrie, Arencibia, Lind and Rasmus may be a bit high. But a +7-8WAR with the current group seems a bit more likely.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 1, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be happy if Lawrie's production is half that.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 1, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
So here’s the question. What happens if a deal like Drabek for Garza happens? Does that make us over that 90 wins? If that’s the case, does adding Fielder make more sense as that final piece for contention in 2012-2013?
If the 3-5 years for Fielder rumours are true I think he makes sense regardless. Garza trade would make us look better to Prince, but I don’t like the cost that has been associated with Garza
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Garza
Would push as a couple wins closer, not sure it gets us to 90 for sure, but I’d say there’sa chance. Then Prince could truly be the piece to push you over the 90 threshold.
Ergh!
Just thinking about the idea of a legitimate 90 win team is making me a little light-headed, and too optimistic. MUST. THINK. CLEARLY/RATIONALLY.
meh it’s the offseason. The Jays can’t prove or diprove our optimism!
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
looks like he's using Fans projections, not Bill James
ie, crowdsourced scouting and not hard regression, which probably isn’t the best idea.
everyone noticed Lawrie, but I think Bautista putting up 7 WAR is a little optimistic too. I think 6 is more likely, and JPA improving by a win is possible, but I don’t think necessarily likely
by benk on Jan 1, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
keithlaw keithlaw
Most likely not. RT @SeanONeill1985: @keithlaw Are either of the arms the White Sox picked up from Toronto anything worthwhile?
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Which doesn't really tell us anything
It’s just a probability assessment…the probability of getting anything worthwhile from low-A arms is always against, especially if they don’t have a large draft/IFA pedigree. Who knows if he knows anything about them
Its more about saving money, and taking a flier on two guys in the meantime. Strange because they picked up the options instead of letting him walk and get the picks
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
I suspect they wanted to keep Jason and Quentin in the original plans
But then they signed John Danks to that extension and needed to unload more money to pay for it.
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 1, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
My thoughts exactly
Though option and pick singular. Though, the one guy above preferred it to a supplmental rounder, and he’s a fairly knowledgable about prospects
Wilner article on the Frasor trade.
http://blog.rogersbroadcasting.com/mikewilner/2012/01/01/the-return-of-frason-jasor/
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
yea somebody posted it somewhere on the site
can’t remember where….
in the fan shot section!
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 1, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
We already know that Doc is awesome
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
Hmm random Daniel Webb fact from Southside socks from Jaysjournal:
“While in HS, the assistant stated that Webb ‘broke his left foot in the first inning, but courageously pitched the entire seven-inning game, which wound up as a 2-1 loss.’”
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
Am I the only one that thinks this is more stupid then courageous?
I think you'll find I'm universally recognised as a mature and responsible adult.
Twitter is the thing with all the tweets...
I think its the athletes job to suck it up
But the coaches job to pull the string. I think its more bad coaching than stupid athlete.
unless he hid it until after the game.
As a Toronto sports fan I proudly follow the lessons of lachrymology.
"He drives that new car around town and feels really good about it." - Ron Wilson
"Vancouver, BC: A massive inferiority complex with a city." - TheOtherAndrew
"HOPE is more than a postponed disappointment" - Epica
I guess I am he only person who hates this trade
There are FA relievers on the market who cost only $$. There are at least 5 extra bullpen options in AAA beyond Santos, Oliver, Janssen, Litsch, Villaneuva, Carreno and Perez. There are more options in AA. Why the hell would you trade for a reliever under these conditions? Just a silly waste of Jaye.
I have no problems parting with a lottery ticket like Jaye ONLY if it a clear long term fix at a position. A one year rental of a decent middle reliever? I mean really? If Jaye turns into something this trade will look like a laughingstock down the road.
Hate giving up assets for one year rentals for a team that shows zero desire to compete this season anyways. I mean who cares if Frasor adds one extra win to a .500 ballclub?
Unless AA manges to flip Frasor for a better prospect than Jaye during the season this trade will irritate me. It’s a relatively minor move so it won’t hurt the Jays much, I just don’t like it.
Plus, I was quite happy to be rid of Frasor. Not that he isn’t a quality middle reliever, he just takes a million bloody years to throw a pitch. Hate watching the game when he comes in.
what do you think the chances
that either Jaye or Webb turn into good Major League relievers? I’d put the odds that either one has a single above average season in MLB at 20%, and I think that’s generous
I think 20% is outrageously high...
If you look at any old prospect lists, how many of the top 20 prospects of any one year make the big leagues? Maybe a little more than a quarter…a third at the absolute most. And Jaye and Webb don’t even make any prospect lists.
I’d imagine the odds either of them throw a pitch in the big leagues are below 10%, let alone being an above average producer.
I don't particularly care how long the odds are...
Frasor essentially replaces one of Perez or Carreno in the bullpen. The other five spots are taken already. What are the odds that Frasor significantly outperforms either Carreno or Perez in ’12? To me that is simply not valuable enough to part with a high upside arm like Jaye for a team in the Jays position.
Chances are like most prospects Jaye busts, but I just believe that trading a high upide arm like Jaye when he is years away from the MLB (and thus not valuable in a trade) is a poor philosophy in principle. Unless we are talking about acquiring a piece for the Jays long-term future. A mid-30’s middle reliever on a one year contract doesn’t qualify.
I’m not saying it’s a poor trade value wise, I just think it’s a waste of assets for a piece they don’t even remotely need.
But it is not as simple as that
Yes, out of spring training, Frasor will probably replace Carreno, and the difference in value between the two of them is probably fairly minimal. However, this will allow Carreno to pitch as a starter in AAA or AA, getting a lot more work in. Carreno would also then be available for the first inevitable injury that will happen in the bullpen, giving the Jays much needed depth at the position.
Really, the Jays not only get Frasor in this deal, they get Carreno having more opportunities to work as a starting pitcher.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 1, 2012 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
There were still other ways of acquiring a middle reliever
if AA felt that bullpen depth was still a pressing need.
Carreno is not young for a prospect and only has two pitches. His future is the bullpen IMO.
short memory
Do you remember what AA did with his “extra” relievers last year? First off, he used them in games because people were injured. The 7-man bullpen typically takes 10-12 men to fill it for the course of a year.
Secondly, and this is the argument that should appeal to you based on your previous line of argument: AA traded our surplus relievers last year and got a tremendous cost-controlled young talent in Rasmus in return.
Well I did say if Frasor later gets flipped for a similar prospect...
I would be ok with it. I’m just not sure he’ll be able to with the new compensation rules.
There are other ways of securing bullpen depth if AA really felt it necesary.
Banking on something similar to the Rasmus trade occuring again seems foolish. IMO anyways.
Don't forget about the draft pick too
If Frasor pitches as he normally does, he could qualify as compensation-worthy if the Jays decide to let him go.
The CBA did not completely destroy the compensation system. It still exists and AA could use Frasor as another way of picking up a draft pick.
The new CBA did destroy compensation for Frasor though
The only way to get compensation is to offer the free agent a 1 year contract at a very high value (It is based on the top salaries in the league, but I have heard it would be around 12M). No way Frasor gets offered (or turns down) that much.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 2, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, yes you are
I mean who cares if Frasor adds one extra win to a .500 ballclub
I am pretty sure I heard the same thing when we picked up Santos. The same thing when we picked up Oliver. The same thing when KJ accepted arbitration … At some point, adding wins to a .500 club makes the team better than a .500 club.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 1, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Straw man much?
Santos is an elite reliever with 6 years of control (with possible upside left). I loved Molina but that was a very good trade IMO.
Oliver is a FA who merely costs $$, which is exactly what I advocated for in my original post.
KJ is the only ML 2B in the organization and again merely cost $$ to bring back. How is he relevant to the Frasor trade?
Frasor essentially replaces Carreno/Perez in the bullpen. I just don’t think that is enough of an upgrade to part with Jaye.
you make it sound like parting with Jaye is a really bad thing
The chances of Jaye being half as good as Frasor is really really low
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I don't think it's a really bad thing...
I even admitted odds are Jaye busts like every other prospect. I just really dislike the philosophy of dealing high upside arms in the low minors for one year of a middle reliever when there were so many other ways of adding to the bullpen. I would have much preferred to simply go into the season with the bullpen as it was (maybe adding some more minor league flyer types) then surrender Jaye for Frasor.
Not a disaster or anything, it just irks me. I’ll get over it, especially if Frasor gets flipped for an equal or better prospect later on. I have my doubts though considering the new rules about compensation picks.
Jaye was a reliable low minors pitcher but projects as a “low upside” arm. Webb, whose numbers were much less impressive, is the one in this trade with a “high upside” arm, but as has been stated above, it’s unlikely if he reaches his potential, and even if he does, his potential is to be a Jason Frasor in 3-4 years time.
Your scouting report is two years old
Jaye is a 20 y/o starter with a fastball that touches 94 now, a slider that flashes plus and a developing changeup. He has number three starter upside, he just happens to be 3-4 years away and thus not valuable in a trade right now. Which i why I don’t like dealing him for one year of a middle reliever.
Webb had upside two years ago. He’s now 22, still has the plus fastball but cannot command it nor does he have a second pitch worth mentioning. Already converted to relief so his upside is as a bullpen arm.
we have plenty of other low minors prospects with number 3 upside
and will surely acquire many more through drafting and trade in the near-term. I don’t think dealing one of these guys away for immediate help is a terrible thing. You do, which is fine, but I tend to see such low-minors-with-number-3-upside players as largely interchangeable and pretty easy to replace.
also, for what it's worth
neither Webb nor Jaye appeared in Sickels’ list of the Jays’ top prospects which, between the main list and “others of note,” listed 44 different prospects. Giving away 2 guys who are at best your 45th and 46th best prospects for a dependable MLB player (who can potentially be flipped for similar or better players mid-season) is a trade I can definitely support.
Webb was 45th on the pre-2011 ranking
And with the season he had, and influx of talent, I can’t imagine he would be top-50 pre-2012
thanks
I stand corrected. After reading #47, I followed a link to #45 without checking the year. confused much
I actually did the same thing
Then I realized that I had started by reading #46 (newest article) so why would 45 be out before it and checked the date.
I don't think it's terrible
Just a waste of assets for an unnecesary piece right now.
Don't forget
The Jays only have a limited number of roster spots in their minor league teams. AA may have traded these two players simply to make room for new signees or because there wasn’t enough room at the higher levels for those players who graduated from rookie league last year.
Here's the thing
one year rentals for a team that shows zero desire to compete this season anyways.
The Jays are probably a 83-85 win, true talent team right now, barring any other upgrades. If a couple of guys explode and have career years, and if there’s an extra playoff team, then the Jays could be right there. In which case you want a good bullpen.
And if they’re not very close, there are always teams who need bullpen upgrades in July, and with another playoff team (if it happens), there will be fewer teams out of it and more teams in, which means the supple/demand is more favourable.
Cost of a Complete Bullpen
14 million dollars for TBJ bullpen complete bullpen, wasn’t that the cost of Paplebon
You do realize that Frasor is one of those rare reliable relievers?
In that, every year, you can basically count on him to put up the same (and generally good) numbers. That’s gold. To know that you can count on a reliever to deliver if you send him out there is very valuable to a team that had issues in the bullpen last year.
This trade robs the Jays from getting their first player named "Jay" or "Jaye"
(Not counting Jayson Werth or Nix)
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
Jason Frasor and Dave Stieb are #1 and #2 in terms of career appearances with the Jays
And they both spent their entire careers with the Jays except for two months with the White Sox.
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 1, 2012 4:26 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Huh
It’s really too bad Steib fell off the proverbial cliff after 1990. He was so good for so long, and then after 33, he was basically done
Yea unfortunately I was too young to ever see him pitch in his prime
I did catch him during his come back season in 1998 (that was weird and quickly forgotten)
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 1, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
That was my first first year following baseball
I knew who he was, but it didn’t mean much since there wasn’t a visceral connection to the glory years
favorite Jay of all time
The guy made Doc look laid back and mellow in comparison..and that slider, best I’ve ever seen.
Assuming Santos, Frasor, Janssen, Oliver, Villanueva and Litsch form 6/7 relievers...
Who do you like for the last? (assuming no more additions)
Perez as a second situational lefty or Carreno as another depth right hander that can go a couple innings?
Perez
and let Carreno start in the minors. Whether or not his future is as a starter (which seems unlikely if he sticks with the Jays), the best thing for his development is to pitch a bunch, I think. He would also be a very good backup bullpen pitcher in case of injury
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 1, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
Brett Cecil
Actually, I don’t really think so, but it is one valid though fairly unlikely outcome.
by BuffaloSojourn on Jan 2, 2012 1:24 AM EST up reply actions
You're making a big assumption
which is that all 6 of those are healthy. Typically, a bullpen needs 10-12 major league calibre relievers, some of whom will go up and down between the majors and minors throughout the course of the year, in order to be competitive
you don't need that
it would be ideal, but a Major League calibre 12th RP (maybe 0.5 WAR over the course of a season) adds, at most, 0.2 WAR over the course of a season over a AAAA arm. it’s really not critical
The Blue Jays have never made a trade on New Year's Day
The trade made earliest in the year was in 2002, when J.P. Ricciardi traded C Mike Kremblas to the A’s for C Tom Wilson on January 2.
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
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