Let's Take a Look at the Blue Jays Bullpen
by Tom Dakers on Jan 10, 2012 10:27 AM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Analysis
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PrintWe pretty much know what the plan is for the bullpen, so let's take a look at it. They will be using a 7-man bullpen, at least to start the season season.
Sergio Santos: Our new closer, he saved 30 games for the White Sox last year with a 3.55 ERA. His FIP (2.87) and xFIP (2.69) were better. He struck out 13.07 per 9 innings, I like guys that can miss bats. He walked a few (4.12/9), 5 of those walks were intentional. He did blow 6 saves. Jim Margalus told us that he may have some durability issues, he's been better early in the season than later on in the season. Jim figures Santos needs a bit of management to be at his best, but then, at his best, he's pretty great.
Jason Frasor: We know all about our prodigal son. He's ack in the fold and he'll likely be our main 8th inning guy. Jason can add to his Blue Jay record for appearances. Last year he was having a good season with us, 2.98 ERA when he was traded, but didn't do so well with the Sox, putting up a 5.09 ERA in 20 games with them, but then we know better than to judge a guy on 17.2 innings. Innings do tend to last a little while, with Jason on the mound but he's a good pitcher.
Darren Oliver: He might be token lefty in the pen, depending on whether Luis Perez makes the team. The last 4 seasons he's had ERAs of 2.88, 2.71, 2.48 and 2.29. The next number in that progression might be pretty good. He doesn't have much for a platoon split last year or over his career, his career OPS is .788 against RHB and .772 against LHB. He only walked 1.94/9 last year and only gave up 3 home runs, despite pitching in Arlington. He is 41 but lefties can pitch forever.
Casey Janssen: A long time favorite of mine, I figured he was in line to pitch in higher leverage spots, but with us picking up Santos, Frasor and Oliver, he's moved back some. He had a 2.26 ERA last year. He didn't walk many, just 2.26/9 and he only gave up 2 home runs last year. He pitched more than an inning in several outings last year, and went 3 innings allowing no hits, with 5 strikeouts once.
Jesse Litsch: The team seems determined that Litsch will be a reliever. Maybe they are right, batters hit .204/.272/.408 against him as a reliever and .268/.343/.436 as a starter last year. He can give us a couple of good innings at a time, but he had a large platoon split, with RHB having a good .618 OPS but lefties having a .845 OPS against him last year so it might be a good idea try to have him pitch to right-handers as much as we can.
Carlos Villanueva: He was absolutely amazing as a long man in our pen, holding batters to a .161/.264/.259 line and putting together a 1.60 ERA as a reliever. He wasn't as good as a starter, but filled in there when he was needed. I can't imagine that he will have an ERA under 2 as a reliever again, but I'm happy to have him as the long man in our pen.
The last spot in the pen is a little more wide open. It could be one of a few guys.
Luis Perez: I'm thinking he is the mostly likely choice to be the 7th man in the pen. He could fill the role of LOOGY and/or go a few innings in a mop up role if needed. He wasn't great last year, finishing with a 5.12 ERA in 65 innings, but he did hold lefties to a .260/.322/.375 line. I'd guess that Farrell will want more than one lefty in his pen.
Joel Carreno: Might not make the team out of spring training, but injuries happen, I'm sure he'll get some work with the Jays. Last year he allowed just 11 hits and 4 walks in 15.2 innings while picking up 14 strikeouts. I'd like to think there was a closer's job in his future, but this year he'll just have to do whatever job he is asked to do.
Chad Beck: Seems to be well liked by the organization. Was a September call up. Of course, the story is that Pete Rose told Alex Anthopoulos that Beck was very good. Vegas manager Marty Brown also liked him a lot too. He looks like he'd be a reliever in the majors but the team will, likely, have him starting at Vegas.
There is also the possibility that if either Dustin McGowan or Brett Cecil don't make the starting rotation out of spring training they could be used in the pen. It is also possible that the team might want McGowan to start the season in the pen to manage his innings, I'm pretty sure they won't want him going 180+ innings this year. Or the team might decide that they would be better off using Cecil in the LOOGY role, much as they did with Marc Rzepczynski last year.
It looks to me like a much better pen than we had last year. Of course they would be helped out if the starters could go a little deeper in the games than they did last year. Pitching les would make the pen look better.
I think, the way the pen looks to shake out, that we should have one of the better bullpens in the AL. What do you think?
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Agreed... plus...
… there’s addition by subtraction with the likes of Rauch and Francisco’s (first half). Not to say that the crew you listed couldn’t have mediocre seasons (like Janssen regressing) but if they all pitch to their average these guys will be good. If a few pitch above their average this could very well be a top 3 pen in the AL.
My two cents, I’d give Cecil a rotation shot for 6-8 starts and see how he does. If poorly, move him to the pen and give Carreno/Drabek a call-up from Vegas (where both should start the year in my opinion). At that time, we’ll know if Perez is holding his own which appears to be a wild card for the pen through my eyes. If Cecil is back to 2010 form, excellent, Carreno will get time, as you say, whereever it is needed.
Drabek is the issue. Tough to say McGowan is a shoo-in over Drabek for the rotation but boy does Drabek need to buck up and pitch well this Spring.
It is a blessing to have many options for the rotation and pen but these will be hard decisions to make so it is best to give spots to guys who earn it on the field (or lose it there)…
"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu
It’s pretty good I think. I just hope Farrell has learned how to manage it better. It’d definetly help if the rotation can go longer into games.
Semi-related: Has anyone picked up Camp?
I think hHow well the BP goes depends a lot on how the Starting Rotation Pans out
Last year, the BP was doing all right in the first couple of months but it was leading or near the top of (IIRC) the MLB in appearances and IP.
All those innings wore the pen out and then the Rasmus trade(s) happened which gutted the pen further plus moving Carlos to the starting rotation didn’t help matters either not like the Jays had a choice at the time.
I like how the BP looks on paper and it has a good mix of pitcher types. Based on Jesse’s splits, it looks like Jesse is going to be this year’s Dotel (ROOGY?). I wonder if Jesse can bust a move like Dotel…
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 10, 2012 10:55 AM EST reply actions
Agreed
On paper it looks good. But this assumes our starters can give us a better number of 6+ IP games. Injuries, over-use, the trades, and Farrell’s “managing” were all factors last year that affected how good our pen was. More stability and set roles may help as much as who we have.
Depth in the rotation too
Having to have Villaneuva, Litsch, and Perez start a number of games last year definitely had an impact. Hopefully having a bit more starter depth will help in regards to this.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 10, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
I think his primary concern last year was collecting draft picks through relievers
It explains the Rauch, Dotel and Francisco acquisitions. I think AA knew changes were coming to the CBA and was aiming to game the draft pick system one last time.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
I think this is an important distinction
This year, with no draft pick compensation, it’s basically only about constructing a bullpen. Though I’m sure having three guys who can be free agents at the end of the season (Janssen, Frasor, Oliver) as trade chips is also important.
What’s the difference?
Last year he went out and traded for a closer (Franky Frank), traded for another (CV) and added a couple via free agency (Rauch & Dotel) with the remainder being internal options. This year he traded for a closer (Santos), traded for another (Frasor) and added at least one one via free agency (Oliver) maybe more depending on how the rest of the offseason/spring training pans out with the remainder being internal options. He’s done virtually the same thing this year that he did last.
The difference is roles were not defined last year
Or at the very least, not as defined. Frank Francisco was not the “closer” last year, in fact I remember Farrell or Anthopolous going out of their way to SAY no one would be named the closer. This year its set in stone that, barring injury, Santos is the closer. If you don’t know where the parts are going, you can’t “build” something. You’re just mashing it together. Like the comment above yours said, heavy consideration was given to draft picks. This year the primary concern was putting together a balanced bullpen. There’s a difference in how he went about assembling the ’pen.
Not quite. They went out of their way to say that Rauch, Dotel, and Franky would have to compete to be Closer, I remember it clearly because folk noted that Frasor’s name wasn’t floated as a Closer candidate.
Frankly, the only real difference in the building process I see this year is that the Closer they traded for has more team control then Franky did. They’re all good players but I can’t assign any special credit to the building process this year vs. last.
"They went out of their way to say that Rauch, Dotel, and Franky would have to compete to be Closer"
That’s not the same as “Sergio Santos will close games for us this season.”
True, but it’s also not the same as “not defined”. They had defined roles… they just publically said that who got those roles was going to be a competition. Frankly I think it’s better for folk to have to compete for roles (if you insist on having them) performance incentives and all that.
I mean I don’t think that Santos is going to be the “Closer” no matter what… if the guy goes out and throws meatballs 10 straight games (as unlikely as that is) I doubt they’ll continue throwing him out there in high leverage situations.
The difference is perceived Quality (as measured by cost)
but the fact that they are saying there is no competition this year means they think there’s a low chance Santos starts giving away presents to the opposition. They couldn’t say that about Franky Frank Frank or the Rock so there was a competition. I see what you’re saying about using the same blueprint this year as they did last year, but the difference is in quality and the proof is that we’ve paid what Alex perceives as more for that quality. Molina is more valuable to AA than Napoli was (in retrospect, a misjudgment perhaps). We’re paying Oliver more than we did Dotel. 2 D+ prospects for Frasor vs. money for Rauch so that’s about even. And last year we added CV as well for pretty much nothing whereas this year we still have CV and we’ve found more in-house options in Perez and Carreno so that’s not as big of an issue. Though, Alex claims he still has his eyes open for bullpen help and I don’t doubt it’s true as he has proven to be able to flip them for valuable parts mid-season once there’s a logjam.
I somewhat disagree
Given that the Jays were unlikely to seriously compete for a playoff spot, there were basically three goals in assembling the bullpen, to various degrees of importance:
1) Having a good bullpen to help the team win
2) Getting draft picks
3) Having pieces to trade at the deadline.
This year, there’s only the first and the third. With another possible playoff spot, the first is more importance, and that affects the way you approach building a bullpen
I wouldn't be surprised if one or more of the names there are traded at the deadline
Good things about relievers is that if they are decent, they’re worth a lot more on the week before July 31 than they are in the offseason.
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
Nor would I
But it does depend on where the team is in the standings. (I know, I know, we can always hope they’re in the mix for a playoff spot, in the winter of our speculation.) And by July 31, the Jays will also have better knowledge of where the pitchers in the minors will fit – either as starters or relievers with the big club, or as trade chips.
Dog days
It must be the dog days of winter. I think we’ve talked about this a few times already. icemanDan’s fanpost was the most recent.
It's a decent pen but with many "IFs"
On paper it looks equal to what we had last year though.
You know what would make a good story? Something about a clown who makes people happy, but inside he's real sad. Also, he has severe diarrhea.
McGowan
I don’t think the Jays will be putting any sort of pitching limit on McGowan. The % increase rule doesn’t apply to him because he’s a veteran. I think both the Jays and McGowan want him to be pitching every 5th day if he’s able.
Dustin’s on a one-year contract, so if he breaks down, there’s not much risk. If he lasts the entire year or just has to take a 15 day breather, you sign him to a 2-3 year deal in the following off-season. If he doesn’t, he’s likely to retire anyway. But this isn’t just the Jay’s POV. This is also what Dustin wants: a chance to pitch every 5th day to play baseball and also earn another guaranteed contract.
Agreed with that
Though one point to note is that McGowan is a free agent at the end of the year. While you gotta figure he would give the Jays first crack at signing him, there is no guarantee of that.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 10, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
True
The Jays would have “the home field advantage” to signing him but any contract anyone offered would be downgraded by the knowledge that he’s had quite a bit of time on the DL. But, yes, the Jays would be competing with other teams and could not offer a low-bal contract, but I don’t think that’s AA’s style in any case.
I still don't like the current SP, which will determine the fate of the bullpen
The #1 priority of AA/Farell over the winter was the bullpen. They addressed it.
The #2 priority of AA/Farell remains adding a “top of the rotation” starting pitcher to the rotation. This has not (yet) been addressed.
RR, MORROW, HENDERSON are my current locks, barring any injury.
Then, CECIL, MCGOWAN and DRABEK will need to battle it out in spring training, where others are also aiming to impress.
Bottom line, this is not an impressive rotation. Way too many things need to happen for this rotation to be successful in the AL EAST, and thus our newly created bullpen will get used extensively. Let’s just hope that Santos doesn’t gas out. Otherwise, I don’t see us getting out of 4th spot, again.
by Marcos Montenegro on Jan 10, 2012 2:12 PM EST reply actions
Exactly what I meant
But I should have expanded to say so.
He had a great debut, there’s no doubt, but guaranteeing a starting position to a pitcher who only has 10 games in the pro is asking a bit much.
Drabek 1 year ago
Same situation. He came up, pitched pretty well and was essentially guaranteed a spot. Although no one was ready to say it was a “lock” everyone knew it was the case, and no one would bet against it.
But, Henderson actually pitched better, for longer. I’d say this is much more of a sure thing.
You don't like guys that throw hard?
Morrow, Drabek, Alvarez, and McGowan all averaged 93 or higher on their fastballs last season (we’re talking Kershaw, King Felix, Scherzer, Ubaldo Jimenez territory here).
Morrow added a cutter at the end of last season that was inducing more groundballs. McGowan actually pitched and didn’t lose his velocity or stuff (which was a major concern). Drabek just needs to calm down, Farrell said he was too amped up last year which led to a lot of his problems. Alvarez will be devastating if he can perfect a breaking pitch, but at worst projects to be a mid-rotation starter without it (according to Keith Law).
I think concerns about the rotation are overblown, there’s a lot of talent here, without mentioning Romero (who has been a sure thing the last 2 years) or Cecil (who might bounce back to his 2010 form). Finally, if any of these guys flame out, there’s talent down on the farm with McGuire, Hutchison and Jenkins down at AA who could be ready to step in by mid-season.
Yeah, this rotation could flame out and everything could break the wrong way but there is also serious potential here too. I can’t wait for this season to start.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
by JaysfanDL on Jan 10, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
There’s a lot of question marks, for sure, but there’s enough depth currently, with more on the horizon, that if a couple guys flame out, we’re okay, and there’s a lot of upside as well.
This isn’t like gambling on Dana Eveland and Jo-Jo Reyes (not that I massive philosophical problems with doing that, but watching them could be cringeworthy), these are guys with very good stuff
throwing fast doesn't make you a pitcher.
Yes, we have a lot of guys in the rotation that could turn out to be legit young guns. However, look around the league and you’ll realize that maybe we win 5-7 more games, but we also have the potential to lose 15 or more; young rotations need veteran guidance, and we have none here. I would like a one year deal with Rich Harden or someone like him, for this very reason.
Farell is just learning the ropes, and he clearly lost us games by his hesitations with the bullpen last year, so hopefully he will make less mistakes this year (do managers have WAR?). Look, I’m the biggest Blue Jay fan and would love to finally emerge from mediocrity, but so far the TB RAYS have the best rotation in the AL EAST, the Yanks the best lineup and bullpen, the Red Sox have a killer pen this year as well as one potent offense….oh yea, 4th again.
In Lawrie we trust!
by Marcos Montenegro on Jan 10, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
why do rotations need "veteran guidance?"
Isn’t that what coaches are for? Are you telling former MLB pitchers John Farrell and Pat Hentgen that they are incapable of guiding a young pitching staff without Rich Harden or equivalent being a member of that team? I think this is a bold statement to make, and I question that you have the authority to make such a claim.
Teams need good pitchers, period. Players, young and old, need people to help them out when things are going poorly. This advice can come from coaches, advisors, fellow players, and other sources.
However, I do not see why “veteran guidance” is required for a team’s pitchers to have success. If that is all it takes, why do teams employ pitching and bullpen coaches? Shouldn’t they just hire a veteran “player/pitching coach” like the player/managers of old? That would save the teams a good deal of money on superfluous coaches, and free up a couple million to sign an even-better, even-more-veteran starter to guide the other guys to glory.
I think the Jays should try to acquire the pitchers who are likely most likely to have success and are acquireable for non-prohibitive costs. Then let Farrell (a successful pitching coach and now pretty-good manager, by most accounts) and his staff guide them to success.
I just can’t see why signing Rich Harden makes that job easier or turns Brett Cecil from 2011 version back into 2010 version. Please explain where I went wrong.
I wouldn’t mind adding someone like Rich Harden at the right price for some additional depth.
But I completely agree with the rest
I don't disagree
adding a pitcher like Harden may well be a good option for the Jays to consider. But it’s because he’s a good pitcher who will improve the Jays’ organizational talent level and is acquirable for a good price, not because he is a “veteran” who will cause the other Jays to magically improve.
FWIW
Pat Hentgen is no longer a coach for the Blue Jays. He’s still with the organization, just not a full time coach.
Look at how the rotation did after Doc left
They all stepped up to fill his shoes and if you see the interviews they gave about that season they all said it was difficult in a way to be under him because of his reputation etc.
I think SuckaMD is absolutely correct, you don’t need veteran presence. Besides, Morrow and Romero aren’t exactly rookies.
I've been saying this all offseason
Even when you include Romero to that, the slowest average fastball opponents will see in a 5 day stretch would be 92.1!
FWIW, the Phillies had one of the best rotations in the league and didn’t have a single guy average 92.1 (Halladay had 92.0).
Sergio Santos was almost unhittable last year
His PITCHf/x numbers last year:
67.1% Contact % (Average = 80.6%), 30.6% O-swing% (Average = 28.6%), 57.3% Z-swing% (Average = 62.1%), 86.7% Z-contact% (Average = 88%), 33.5% O-contact% (!)(Average = 64.7%)
So when he throws it out of the zone, batters had a higher than average tendency to swing at it and miss. When he actually threw within the strike zone, batters didn’t swing.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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He led all qualified MLB relievers in O-contact% last year, better than Greg Holland.
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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