Make Your Predictions: Ricky Romero
by Tom Dakers on Jan 10, 2012 2:08 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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PrintRicky Romero cemented his spot as out number one starter in 2011.
His ERA has dropped each of his 3 seasons, starting at 4.30, 3.73 in 2010 and then 2.92 last year. And his innings pitched is going up, 178 in his rookie year, 210 in 2010 and 225 last year. His career stats:
| Year | Age | W | L | G | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | WP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 4.30 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 178.0 | 192 | 85 | 18 | 79 | 0 | 141 | 10 | 6 | 103 | 1.522 |
| 2010 | 25 | 14 | 9 | 3.73 | 32 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 210.0 | 189 | 87 | 15 | 82 | 3 | 174 | 8 | 18 | 112 | 1.290 |
| 2011 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 2.92 | 32 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 225.0 | 176 | 73 | 26 | 80 | 2 | 178 | 14 | 9 | 146 | 1.138 |
| 3 Seasons | 42 | 29 | 3.60 | 93 | 93 | 7 | 3 | 613.0 | 557 | 245 | 59 | 241 | 5 | 493 | 32 | 33 | 119 | 1.302 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 15 | 11 | 3.60 | 34 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 224 | 204 | 90 | 22 | 88 | 2 | 180 | 12 | 12 | 119 | 1.302 | |
So what is he going to do this year? Bill James is guessing 12-13, in 31 starts, 221 innings and a 3.91 ERA.
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Sounds about right to me. I do think that the ERA might be a bit better than that, but I’d wager it is withing .2 of 3.8.
Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.
I’ll go with this, as well
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
I'll be the one
Ricky Romero will be a 20 game winner. 20-7, in 30 starts, with a 2.78 ERA.
I just feel since the all star game last year, he truly pitches like he belongs. Even more focus, less emotion too. Not to mention a better pen to back him, a regressing division, a whole year of our offence with the Law.
by nwobigboy on Jan 10, 2012 2:25 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I'd say he's been pitching like he belongs for his whole career
considering he’s never been any worse than average by any metric
objection
his FIP was worse than average in 2011, though he certainly was unlucky on HR/FB
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
I was thinking of modifying the original comment
since I realized there was bound to be some metric that said he was worse than average in some season, but then I just decided not to
Split the difference between 2010 and 2011
3.30 ERA (regression catching up with him slightly)
128 ERA+
28 starts (one brief DL trip)
165 Ks
17-11 record (because his supporting offense and defense will be better)
Optimistic: 32 starts, 225 innings, 175 K, 80 BB, ~3.50ERA
Base: 28 starts, 195 innings, 160K, 75BB, ~3.80 ERA
Pessimistic: 25 starts, 150 innings, 125K, 60BB, ~4.20 ERA
Similar to last year
Maybe we will see a slight increase in his BABIP but I reject the notion that his season was a result of luck. Any rise in BABIP will be offset by fewer walks this year. Also if I am not mistaken, a disproportionately high amount of his homers last year came with runners on base. Don’t see that repeating itself.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 10, 2012 2:36 PM EST via Android app reply actions
On the BABIP…his line drive % feel from 18% (league average) to 14%, and fly balls increased, woth his excellent ground ball rate staying the same. If this is sustainable, sure, I’d agree. But I’d imagine it returns closer to the 18% than 14%.
On the HRs…a HR has a linear run value of about 1.7, meaning on average there are about .7 guys on base for the average home run. Using B-R’s excellent HR log, I count 7 2-run shots, 1 3-run shot and 1 grand slam, meaning 12 runners on base for 26 home runs, of about 0.45 per HR. So he actually did quite well here, and we would expect some regression.
OK thanks
Maybe I just assumed that due to his profiency in giving up the big inning.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 10, 2012 7:44 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Yes!
But you have to source and buy them yourself, and your money is not refunded.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 10, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Here we go
216 innings
3.52 ERA
7.47 K/9
3.05 BB/9
and … let’s go with 16-9 cause the Jays will be gooder this year.
3.20 ERA. – 220 innings – 31 starts – 165 Ks – 17-12 .
by wtf now on Jan 10, 2012 2:59 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
18-8
3.25 ERA
225 IP
185 K’s
Jose Bautista has a higher midi-chlorian count than you do.
by Jays11 on Jan 10, 2012 3:06 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
.
22-1
1.86 ERA
347 strikeouts
31 complete games
Mark it down.
by ddbumpus on Jan 10, 2012 3:20 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
There were 8 ties due to rain.
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 10, 2012 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
16-8
3.80 ERA
220 IP
185 K
75 BB
Do you have a young, talented cost controlled player having a down year who's "attitude" has cased problems with an aging player or manager?
Don't worry, I Alex Anthopoulos will take him off your hands, I'll even give you some moderately useful veterans that will "help you make a playoff run".
Gotta believe
17-12
2.85 ERA
235 IP
180 K
77 BB
6 CG
by TonyWalsh on Jan 10, 2012 5:22 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
17-10
3.22 ERA
221 IP
181 K
79 BB
1 CG
"Touch ´em all, Joe!"
by jaysfanfromeurope on Jan 10, 2012 6:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Why are people doubting Ricky?
18-8
2.98 ERA
229 IP
181 K
72 BB
5 CG
by JaysFan101 on Jan 10, 2012 8:25 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
"regression"
Pfft like thats a real thing
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 10, 2012 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
People aren't doubting Ricky
His ERA just looked a lot better than it should have according to FIP and xFIP. Its not that he’ll “pitch worse,” its just that his numbers might not look as nice.
Bill James is given to much credit
Let’s look at 3 other pitchers and see what he predicts for them next season.
W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP
Justin Verlander
18 8 33 240.0 8.48 2.29 0.79 .291 3.08 3.20
Roy Halladay
17 8 32 232.0 7.29 1.24 0.70 .301 3.03 2.96
C.C Sabathia
17 9 33 235.0 7.93 2.49 0.73 .303 3.33 3.30
Are you telling me that none of them will have under a 3 ERA?
Bill James is treated like a god of baseball but lets look at his predictions for 2011
http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/feature/?id=33934
Romero
Year GP W L IP H HR BB SO ERA
James 31 12 12 213 211 20 91 176 4.31
Actual 32 15 11 225 176 26 80 178 2.92
Morrow
Year GP W L IP H HR BB SO ERA
*James 27 9 9 162 140 15 86 173 3.78
Actual 30 11 11 179.1 162 21 69 203 4.72
As you can see he actually valued Morrow as the better pitcher predicting Ricky would give up a lot more runs than he did and more hits. There is more to baseball than statistic predictions.
Bill James projected Bautista at 13 home runs and a .409 slugging percentage for 2010.
Let us just see how Ricky preforms and go from there.
I wouldnt knock him for the Bautista 2010 prediction
if you told me that before the season I’d laugh, or cry, depending on how optimistic I was feeling that given day
I can pick how lots of players "preformed" compared to their regression estimates
it’s a regression. it’s good on a large scale. picking individual samples in which his estimation didn’t work doesn’t help anyone.
16-9
2.83 ERA
189 K
70 BB
206 IP
4 CG
2 SO
by STZ513 on Jan 10, 2012 8:59 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
The Man is a Stud With Better Offence & Defence All Year
18-7
2.72
188 K
67 BB
211 IP
17 HR
5 CG
2 SO
by Infield Pete on Jan 11, 2012 12:38 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Romero severely outperformed his FIP in 2011
But he also drastically cut down his slider use in favor of more fastballs. I think a better pitch balance coupled with some regression in his ERA (and correspondingly, his bWAR-influencing RA), will lead to a season something like this:
16-11
3.50 ERA
175 K
215 IP
No Love for Ricky
Man why is he going to regress I mean he’s going into his forth season, second as the teams Ace and has improved every year. He’s in his mid 20’s and has more experience and handles himeself well. He’ll be better this coming season, his ERA may get better, but on the down side I can’t see him having an ERA much above 3. He’s just too good of a pitcher, and if he pitched in the All Star game instead of CJ Wilson the AL would have won, but Ron Washington is a horrible manager, Texas should have won the last two WS.
Go Ricky 2.89 ERA and an improved WHIP 1.08 and hopefully a few less HR.
by dmon on Jan 11, 2012 9:17 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I don't think anyone expects him to regress in terms of talent (quite the opposite in most cases)
It’s just that he had an unusually low line drive % and BABIP. I think the regression people are expecting here is more that his results fall into line with his peripheral stats, rather than actually being a worse pitcher.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 11, 2012 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I have seen some people predicting regressed Ks and BBs
With increased talent and the same innings they should increase no?
by T_Mizz on Jan 11, 2012 11:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sure there will be a couple people that do this
But almost all the predictions have him at least around his career average of 7.24K/9 and 3.54BB/9, with most predicting better than his career numbers, and a large number predicting better than his numbers last year.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 11, 2012 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
He's 27
So basically, on the precipice of where you start projecting sliggage for pitchers. But it’s probably mostly just regressing back towards the mean, as any projection system will naturally do.
To clarify
The larger the sample for the pitcher, the less regression…but there is still some regression regardless. SO romero would be regressed less than in previous years
Yeah my last comment was more directed towards your projections
Even your optimistic projection had him getting less Ks and the same BBs in the same IP. Your pessimistic and base actually had his K/9 higher. To be clear, this is not a jab at you or anything, as you’re one of the most respectable posters in my eyes.
My optimistic projection was basically the same as last year, 3 less K but basically the same peripherals.
My base and pessimistic cases forecast the chance of injury (even though he has a clean history, he’s a pitcher), which would likely result in lower perfromance, as well as some skill regression.
Basically, last year was probably close to as good as it gets for Romero…when you consider his stuff, and age. I suppose theres some room for improvement in the component ratios individually, but collectively I’d imagine if one improves another could slip.
I'm probably just looking through powder blue coloured glasses but
I think given his age and stuff that he can maintain what he has done and maybe improve a little if he gains some command. I don’t think he’ll have a better season overall than he did last year, but I just don’t think he’ll be too bad. I still think he’ll be under 3 ERA.
See below for my view of improvement
In a straight-up bet, I’d be very confident taking him having an ERA higher than 3.00. Even if he improves skill wise, I’d expect more around 3.50 ERA
Yeah, I kinda got ahead of myself there, I forgot he only had 2.92 last year
So yeah 3.50 seems about right.
Here's my take on FIP
The idea of standardizing the defenses and focusing on just the pitching is a great concept. But I’m not sure it’s as simple as a lot of people seem to make it out to be. From what I’ve read a lot, you get “pitcher X had an FIP much higher than his ERA, therefore he just got lucky and he’ll regress to where his FIP was”. I don’t believe that’s the case. If you look at the individual peripherals, why can’t Ricky sustain them?
Why can’t he keep stranding runners at 80%? Why can’t he limit line drives to 14%?
I think if any team has evidence to support looking deeper into stats than just blindly following FIP as is, then it’s us. Look at Morrow, I believed it last pre season when people said his ERA was way too high compared to his FIP and that he’d be better, we saw more of the same though.
It’s possible that for 95% of pitchers FIP and ERA should be correlated but I don’t know if Ricky and Brandon are in there. You’re talking about a groundballer and a fireballer who almost set a record in a lack of DPs.
Just my thoughts.
by T_Mizz on Jan 11, 2012 11:42 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I don't think pitchers have much control over line drive % and BABIP
which is why most people think this will regress on these numbers. I agree with you that when looking at FIP, or any other statistic for that matter, you should approach it cautiously and not take it to be the whole truth … that is why there are so many statistics available to look at!
It should be noted though that other than last year, Ricky’s ERA has been traditionally very close to his FIP and xFIP. The one year where his BABIP and Line Drive % were below the league average as well as his career averages, was the year that his ERA was lower than his FIP and xFIP. I think that is a fairly strong case for regression.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 11, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
Well a low LD% will lead to a low BABIP logically, and I don’t think 14% is entirely sustainable. Roy Halladay only had one in the 14% range, so I think that will almost certainly increase. But, I think he can maintain his LOB%, and maybe increase his K% and lower his BB%. Combine that with a regression to his HR/FB% and maybe we’re not looking at as bad of a regression as we think.
Let's keep the "skill" peripherals seperate from the "random" peripherals
“Skill”: K%, BB%,
“Random”: HR/FB%, BABIP, LOB%
In terms of the “random” ones, you still have to consider park effects…Rogers Centre gives up more HR, so you would expect a slightly higher HR/FB% than average…though I’d agree there’s some expected regression
LOB% and BABIP have been adressed.
In terms of the “skill” ones, that’s a seperate discussion. Personally, I would not expect any further skill improvement, due to his age, already being significantly above average and having 3 full years now. It’s certaintly possible, but I wouldn’t consider it the mean or median projection.
Well there is a level of "skill" involved in those "random" peripherals
Less so in the batted ball ones but good pitchers can maintain higher LOB%. And I think he is becoming just that. Somehow he added over a full MPH to each of his pitches last season (not saying he’ll do it again, obviously), so i wouldn’t put it past him to cement himself as elite this season.
by T_Mizz on Jan 11, 2012 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Look at Roy Halladay
He’s had a below average LOB% for the past 4 years straight. And well below average for the past 3 years.
by T_Mizz on Jan 11, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, LOB isn't quite "luck"
good pitchers have better LOBs, bad pitchers have worse. I believe it’s a function of Ks and GB rates. but pitchers almost always regress to their average LOB%, because there’s a lot of noise in it
Right
That’s why I used the quotes…what I meant is that when you have large deviations from average in these statistics, it tends to be more random than indicative of skill. But as you say, better pitchers tend to have slightly lower BABIPs, higher LOB%, and in some cases better HR/FB%
Well said
I’d add that better pitchers have below average BABIP and above average strand rate (there’s a strong correlation between those, really, so we shouldn’t talk seperately about them).
But the point is, Romero has a ~.240 BABIP last year, with a league average around ~.290. His carer including last year is .285 (he had a ~.330 BABIP his first year) So you don’t necessarily have to assume it’ll be .290 next year, but the point is, your expectation should be much closer to .285-.290 than ~.240.
As for LOB%, as I said, you can expect greater than the league average ~72%, but as a few more balls in play drop in, fewer runners will be stranded. So you would expect that to normalize.
And just a further thought
More towards the original post. It’s definitely wrong to say that a pitcher will regress to his FIP. The correct expectation is that he will regress towards his FIP. It’s a critical disntinction, I think, though it often gets glossed over.
You should check out this article on year-to-year pitching stat correlations at Beyond the Boxscore. Basically, FIP, xFIP, SIERA and other DIPS (and their components) correlate best with ERA, precisely because they are indicative of skill. It’s a good read.
19-6, 2.85 ERA, 222 Innings, 207K’s
by Marc Henderson on Jan 12, 2012 1:32 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
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