Make Your Predictions: J.P. Arencibia
by Tom Dakers on Jan 13, 2012 1:39 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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This time let's make our guesses for the catcher position. Make your predictions for J.P. Arencibia, Jeff Mathis and whoever else you think might catch a game or two.
Arencibia's rookie season started pretty well, he had an .862 OPS in April and a .781 OPS in May, but he took a foul ball off the thumb and only OPSed .582 in June. Playing through injuries might be admirable, but sometimes it would be better to go on the DL and heal up properly. We had a reasonable back up in Jose Molina, two weeks off may have made all the difference in his season.
Here's JP's numbers:
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 24 | TOR | 11 | 37 | 35 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | .143 | .189 | .343 | .532 |
| 2011 | 25 | TOR | 129 | 486 | 443 | 47 | 97 | 20 | 4 | 23 | 78 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 133 | .219 | .282 | .438 | .720 |
| 2 Seasons | 140 | 523 | 478 | 50 | 102 | 21 | 4 | 25 | 82 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 144 | .213 | .275 | .431 | .706 | ||
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 605 | 553 | 58 | 118 | 24 | 5 | 29 | 95 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 167 | .213 | .275 | .431 | .706 | ||
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.230/.295/.450
27 HR
98 RBI
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
by Frag on Jan 13, 2012 1:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Those number sound about right
I think he cracks 30 homeruns though.
I think Mathis will be alright next year, he won’t get a lot of ABs but I doubt he’s the offensive black hole he was with the Angels. According to the boys at HH, Mickey Hatcher does strange things to his hitters and the Dome is a better place to hit than where the Angels play. Maybe Cito should swing by in spring training with his pal, Gene Tenace, and they can fix Mathis.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
Oh, and JPA will lead the Jays in making female fans swoon
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
by JaysfanDL on Jan 13, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Projection
.250/.320/.510
30 HRs
Monster season.
Most arguments are really about context.
by SheaWasBettor21 on Jan 13, 2012 2:02 PM EST reply actions
Isn't a Near-800 OPS Catcher
Worth like 4 WAR?
I’m actually excited to see improvement from JPA this year. Hopefully, he can make it a fight for when TDA comes up.
@VagabondBansal
problem with OPS and JPA
is that OPS weights OBA and SLG the same, but a point of OBA is worth quite a bit more than a point of SLG, so OPS overrates JP’s offense a little bit. he had a .720 OPS last year but just a 92 wRC+. if JP put up like a .315 OBA and 485 SLG he’d be worth about 3 WAR with -5 defense (basically John Buck’s 2010)
hmmm ...
JPA:
.245/.305/.462
138G, 29HR, 520AB, 90RBI
Mathis:
.205/.260/.300
25G, 85AB, 2HR,
d’Arnaud
.265/.315/.450
15G, 50AB, 2HR,
Mathis would drive Angels fans nuts
If Murphy is able to do a Bautista on Mathis and fix his swing…
by siggian on Jan 13, 2012 3:04 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Which is easier?
Murphy taking Mathis to Bautista’s level, or Murphy taking me to Mathis’ level?
Follow me @Minor_Leaguer
by Minor Leaguer on Jan 13, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
2012 Toronto Catchers
JPA: .257/.312/.473
130 Games, 31 HR
Mathis: .201/.258/.312
21 Games, 1 HR
d’Arnaud: .253/.300/.430
12 Games, 3 HR
Mike McCoy: .230/.300/.288
1 Game
how does mike mccoy hit .230 in 1 game?
unless you suspect he’ll got 0.92 for 4
afterall, it is mike mccoy…
by Paul Belardi on Jan 14, 2012 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think everybody is really optimistic
JPA: .240/.300/.410 with his usual defense and 20 HR over, I’m going to say, 150 games (optimistic)
I really don’t mind Mathis filling in time to time.
Generally agree
Too low on the power, that’s an ISO of .170 compared to .219 last year, or 50 points less.
BA and OBP look about right to me
Fair enough
Maybe Im being a bit hard on him. He is my least favorite player you know! Avoiding bias for me is close to impossible.
MVP
Oh no you didn’t…
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 13, 2012 4:04 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Looks like we have a consensus
If we are right then he will win a silver slugger and be an all-star. Not to mention adding at least a couple more WAR, defense notwithstanding. Could be about 4.5-5 war with those numbers as his D SHOULD improve.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 13, 2012 4:26 PM EST via Android app reply actions
I haven't run any numbers
But the estimates I am seeing is around what Jarrod Saltalamacchia hit last year, with less defence but a tiny bit more offense. These projections are probably more like 3WAR, I think.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 13, 2012 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Sigh
Why do you guys like numbers so much?
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 13, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Because they're often much more honest than words
But my comment about running numbers is more that I thumbed that number, and think 4.5-5WAR is probably a bit high based on the consensus Leaguer mentioned.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 13, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
More then words?
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 13, 2012 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
I could be wrong
I didn’t bother to research what constitutes a replacement level catcher. Just basing it off of JP’s numbers last year + WAR compared to everyone’s predictions now and adding an extra win for D (1 win is just a guess).
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 13, 2012 7:07 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
JPA .240/.290/.500
19 home runs 55 RBI
Jeff Mathis .250/.280/.450
5 home runs 25 RBI
D’Arnaud .300/.325/.450
2 home runs 10 RBI
Mathis with a SLG of .450?
If that is the case, give Murphy a huge raise and extend him forever
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 13, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
I hope I am wrong
You guys have a really high opinion of JPA. I can’t wait for D’Arnaud to become the every day catcher.
I wouldn't say "really high"
Optimistic is probably the better word. Most people have him improving his on his horrible BA and putting up a few more home runs. Not really that much of a stretch imo.
As for Mathis
26
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
JPA
.265/.320/.455
26 HR
87 RBI
Sexyness Rating with the ladies: 2348972342h234
I am the one who knocks.
ughhh
listening to these idiots on sportsnet talk about the jays. why do they let damien cox talk about the jays?!? bob mckown is difficult to listen to as well
by HabsFanInCalgary! on Jan 13, 2012 7:15 PM EST reply actions
I love Tim and Sid
Been following them ever since The Score. They’re on the FAN from 1-3, but have podcasts available online.
I am the one who knocks.
by outoforder87 on Jan 15, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
fun fact
I was in the audience of their final show on the Score, I actually got a shoutout in the first take but not on the take they aired :(
that's really cool.
i had to leave for uni, so I didnt know they left the score until november, when I heard rumours they were going to sportsnet.
I am the one who knocks.
by outoforder87 on Jan 15, 2012 6:44 PM EST up reply actions
holy cow
Pineda for Montero…I think Prince is going to sign with the Rangers, scary, scary team.
gonna suck
facing Pineda so often, I thought he was going to no hit us that one game.
Yankees just signed Kuroda
All the hot air coming from AA not looking too good …
.230
20 HR
(split between Jays and Twins)
by Shift on Jan 13, 2012 9:06 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Maybe
No chance this happens if we are in a playoff race. We don’t push for the playoffs with a catcher with zero major league experience. If we suck then maybe it happens.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 13, 2012 10:02 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Because Buster Posey sucked!
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
by Pikachu on Jan 14, 2012 2:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
JPA should start getting time at DH and 1ST
With Travis d’Arnaud hot on JP’s heels, I think that JP’s bat would be better served at a less demanding position. In 2013 if AA doesn’t trade either of these fine young men than I would like to see the Jays carry 3 catchers. JP and Travis can split time behind the plate and while the other is catching the other can DH. The 3rd catcher is just there incase of an in game injury to whom ever is catching. This would give both JP and Travis enough rest, while still getting 500 AB/yr
the position is less demanding defensively
but MUCH more demanding offensively. as it stands now, JP is only as good as Adam Lind – who, as we know, is not good enough to be an everyday 1B. it’s possible that Arencibia’s bat somehow makes a quantum leap into a good one for a 1B, but I don’t see it happening. I don’t think there’s much chance at all that JPA’s bat plays at first, and even if it does he’s likely to have more value in a trade (to someone who needs a C) than in playing first for us
by benk on Jan 14, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think JPA could end up being the Jays upside surprise guy this year
Of course, his defence will still be average at best, but I think he could progress into one the the premiere offensive catchers in baseball.
Remember spring training last year? He really stumbled offensively thru grapefruit league, and when questioned about it, admitted he was spending almost zero time on his offensive game, concentrating instead almost exclusively on his defence.
I also think his game was really affected by hand injury.
Not a prediction guy, but expect him if healthy to hit 30+ homeruns. The big question will be how much he can improve his BA and OBP.
I don’t consider myself a JPA apologist- in fact, I kind of worry that his fan popularity and an all-star season might encourage the Jays to trade D’Arnaud and keep JPA.
by BuffaloSojourn on Jan 14, 2012 12:39 PM EST reply actions
I could see the hand injury having a fairly serious impact
I’m not sure he has the contact skills in any case to be a Brian McCann though
No arguments there
Can’t imagine Arencibia ever approaching 350 obp. Question is, can he split the difference between the two last year, and add on to his power numbers.
Arencibia = Lind
I see similar numbers between the two……which is much more favourable if you’re a catcher.
.242/.315/.469
28 HR
81 RBI
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