Make Your Predictions: Adam Lind

by Tom Dakers on Jan 14, 2012 7:02 PM EST in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions

Adam Lind, as you all know, didn't have a good year in 2011, or 2010 for that matter. He did well in the first half of the season, hitting .300/.349/.515, but he was awful in the second half, hitting just .197/.233/.356. He was having some back troubles, so many that had something to do with the poor showing. We took a close look at Adam's 2011 season back here.

Lind's career stats:

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2006	22	TOR	18	65	60	8	22	8	0	2	8	0	0	5	12	.367	.415	.600	1.015	159
2007	23	TOR	89	311	290	34	69	14	0	11	46	1	2	16	65	.238	.278	.400	.678	77
2008	24	TOR	88	349	326	48	92	16	4	9	40	2	0	16	59	.282	.316	.439	.755	100
2009	25	TOR	151	654	587	93	179	46	0	35	114	1	1	58	110	.305	.370	.562	.932	141
2010	26	TOR	150	613	569	57	135	32	3	23	72	0	0	38	144	.237	.287	.425	.712	90
2011	27	TOR	125	542	499	56	125	16	0	26	87	1	1	32	107	.251	.295	.439	.734	95
6 Seasons			621	2534	2331	296	622	132	7	106	367	5	4	165	497	.267	.316	.466	.782	106
162 Game Avg.			162	661	608	77	162	34	2	28	96	1	1	43	130	.267	.316	.466	.782	106

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/14/2012.

Lind couldn't hit lefties at all, last year. I'd like to think he'd be platooned some this year but we don't have enough guys on the bench to platoon.

Bill James predicts a .268/.322/.474 line from Lind, with 27 homers and 94 RBI in 144 games. A pretty fair improvement, but still not the numbers you would like your first baseman.

I think Bill is pretty close on this. I'll guess .270/.315/.450 with 25 home runs and 85 RBI in 140 games. Give us your guess.

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Comments

I'm thinking he'll perform much better than the past couple years

.283/.325/.496
32 HR, 105 RBI
146 Games

by STZ513 on Jan 14, 2012 7:12 PM EST reply actions

I Agree

.280/.330/.500
35 HR, 105 RBI
I’ve got a feeling the Jays are going to have another record high team home run total

by Gruber17 on Jan 14, 2012 7:21 PM EST up reply actions

Y’know, everyone Is always unbelievably optimistic in these prediction threads. Just to be contrarian, I’ll predict that Lind hits .265/.295/.410 in the first couple of months, and then gets benched/released, while AA pulls a trade-deadline deal for a better 1B.

by DavidLondon on Jan 14, 2012 7:28 PM EST reply actions

unbelieveably optimistic?

wanting and hoping our players from the team we love perfrom well?
Yeah i wouldn’t have expected that either

+1 is only good if you actually rec the post

by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 14, 2012 8:26 PM EST up reply actions

You can hope for players to perform well

While being “more realistic” at the same time. I.e. I hope Bautista jacks 50 this year but I predict he’ll be closer to 35-40

by Aidin on Jan 14, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

more like

-0.250/-0.100/0.010 he’ll get more than one out per at bat for the season!

by Seal Clubbing on Jan 14, 2012 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Lind is so frustrating.

He was dialed right in at the start of the season, I even remember him getting hits off lefties, just looked like a monster, even came back strong off the DL stint..then, off a cliff. I think he got hurt. I hate Lind, a lot, but for some crazy reason I think he has a big year, that swing is just too beautiful.

.290/.360/.540
38 HR

by ABsteve on Jan 14, 2012 7:32 PM EST reply actions

I'm going all starry eyed optimistic

.270/.331/.504
44 HR
110 RBIs

In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.

by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 14, 2012 7:47 PM EST reply actions

That would be awesome.

Jose Bautista has a higher midi-chlorian count than you do.

by Jays11 on Jan 14, 2012 10:59 PM EST up reply actions

Man his 2009 was good

81 extra base hits is amazing. He was on pace for an even better season before tanking. I for am a believer that can do it again. He’s of those rare guys that can hit anything out of the park when he is on. With better plate discipline he could hit 45 homers but he never will learn to lay off of bad pitches.

Man who has four balls cannot walk

by Beer Leaguer on Jan 14, 2012 7:47 PM EST via Android app reply actions

.281/.330/.498
28 HR
97 RBI

And still gobs of hate

by Aidin on Jan 14, 2012 8:06 PM EST reply actions

I think he’ll put up decent numbers, partly because I think Farrell will actually try to keep him away from LHP.

.280/.335/.525
25 HR
87 RBI
490 AB

by REMO on Jan 14, 2012 8:11 PM EST reply actions

.252/.300/.490
23 HR
70 RBI

by Nadia on Jan 14, 2012 8:39 PM EST via mobile reply actions

.280/.335/.510 29 HR

I believe in the BABIP regression… sort of maybe

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 14, 2012 9:15 PM EST reply actions

I believe in the keeping him away from lefties regression

by MjwW on Jan 14, 2012 10:00 PM EST up reply actions

yeah imma go with this. I’m hopeful lind will bounce back

by Sniderlover on Jan 15, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

.320 48 doubles 33 homers 112 RBI

by t_jays_fan on Jan 14, 2012 9:45 PM EST reply actions

Depends

As part of lefty/righty platoon (please, please, prety please John Farrell):
110 games, 400 PA (includes some pinch hitting, and some being removed for pinch hitter when a LOOGY is brought in)
.285/.335/.515
25 HR

Otherwise, more of the same as last year, with some bounceback in BABIP:
135-40 games, 500-550 PAs
.265/.310/.465
30 HR

Keep him away from lefties, for the love of all that is good!!!!

by MjwW on Jan 14, 2012 9:59 PM EST reply actions

Pretty much what he said

I’ll be happy if he’s platooned

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 14, 2012 11:58 PM EST up reply actions

I actually think this is gonna happen

If the Jays are gonna want to compete with the bigger spenders, they’re going to have to take advantage of whatever opportunity they have. If they can increase production by platooning certain players, at least partly, I think they’re going to start doing it. I wish they’d have picked up better right handed hitter than Ben Francisco though. There’s still time, I suppose.

by REMO on Jan 15, 2012 8:40 AM EST up reply actions

you mean Edwin?

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 15, 2012 9:06 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

yes, exactly. but I have Edwin penciled in as full time DH. He can hit RHP and LHP both reasonably well. He could move over to 1B when Lind sits out vs. LHP.

by REMO on Jan 15, 2012 1:01 PM EST up reply actions

Rajai Davisis is a righty

And he has pretty strong splits, career .762 against lefties and career .664 against righties, and they’ve been stronger than that the last two years.

So against righties, Lind starts at 1B, Thames/Snider (whichever makes the team) in LF, and either EE at DH or occasionally Ben Francisco.

Against lefties, EE at 1B since Lind sits, Davis in LF, if it’s Thames who makes the team then he can DH occasionally and Francisco can play occasionally. Thames showed some pretty big splits in 2011, but it’s a smaller sample so I’d give him the chance to play most of the time against them. Snider also has significant career splits, so same type of deal.

Davis can also occasionally spell Rasmus in CF against lefties (whenever you want to give Rasmus a day off, make it against lefties). I still don’t quite understand where Ben Francisco really fits in, he’s not that good and his career splits are erratic so it’s not like there’s a big angle there situationally.

by MjwW on Jan 15, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

I'd be okay with that

hopefully Davis isn’t as horrible as he was in 2011. before the season he looked to me like a 2 to 2.5 win player… average offense (I believe his career wRC+ was 99) and average defense at a premium position. then he crapped the bed

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 15, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions

Davis was horrible against righties

But he was fine against lefties. And I think it comes down to how he’s used, and like with Lind, if he’s put in a position to succeed. I think Davis is a good platoon player, and a good guy to come off the bench as a pinch runner late in games of a defensive replacement for Thames. But he’s not an everyday player, ifyou try and use him that way, you’ll get results like last year

by MjwW on Jan 15, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

you're right

I hadn’t noticed that he was a part time player in his best season

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 15, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, you have a pretty good plan there

as you mention, I’m not that keen on Francisco as well. I’d rather have a good right handed hitter to throw into the mix for the last bench spot.

by REMO on Jan 15, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

He's not clutch

.265
15 HR
75 RBIs
122 games (DL with back problems)

by Marcos Montenegro on Jan 14, 2012 10:49 PM EST reply actions

I disagree

It will be a shoulder injury

"And I'm like forget Yuuuuuu"

by jays182 on Jan 15, 2012 12:45 AM EST up reply actions

He actually hits better in high leverage / men-on-base situations

His 2011 wRC+ is 26

by Pikachu on Jan 15, 2012 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

.270/.330/.515
30 HR
145 games

Jose Bautista has a higher midi-chlorian count than you do.

by Jays11 on Jan 14, 2012 11:00 PM EST reply actions

.270/.305/.470
17 HR
75 RBI
Less than 100 games (injury/platoon)

by brigstew on Jan 15, 2012 12:24 AM EST reply actions

140 games – .303/.375/.520 – 29HR, 110 RBI

by Marc Henderson on Jan 15, 2012 2:09 AM EST reply actions

A healthy Lind is a happy team

With how bad Lind was (and looked) from July – October, he was definately playing with a hurt back. As long as he’s healthy I’d say:

.280/.320/.520 – 28 HR and will reach 100 RBI if he’s clean-up this year.

If the back is still wonky:

.235/.260/.375 with 70 games played. It probably would also result in Cooper getting the nod for the rest of the year.

by Cecilrosa on Jan 15, 2012 5:14 AM EST reply actions

but he was healthy in 2010

I tweet.

by benk on Jan 15, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

Wow! Serious optimism.

I think Lind is what he is…

.268/.328/.459

22 HR
79 RBI

Not enough production from a power position.

by Krylian on Jan 15, 2012 10:28 AM EST reply actions

I'd say your estimated OBP

Is more optimistic than pessimistic :P

by brigstew on Jan 15, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

hmmm ...

.265/.325/.475
25HR, 95RBI, 140G

by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 15, 2012 11:09 AM EST reply actions

I think James is pretty close

Lind still had a pretty high LD% last year, so was fairly unlucky on balls in play. I’m not sure he’ll improve his contact skill much, and ~5% BB% seems right. I know you want more from 1B, but if Lind can get back to an 800 OPS, that will be good enough for me, I think

by SuckaMD on Jan 15, 2012 12:45 PM EST reply actions

.265
26 HR
82 RBI

"Subdue the enemy without fighting" ~ Sun Tzu

by kdlishus on Jan 15, 2012 12:46 PM EST reply actions

This may be a stupid question..

but, Tom said that the Bill James prediction is not what you’d want from a first baseman. What kind of numbers would you expect from an avg first baseman to be worth some value. Just curious, so I can then determine whats above/below average.

I am the one who knocks.

by outoforder87 on Jan 15, 2012 6:46 PM EST reply actions