Make Your Predictions: Kelly Johnson
by Tom Dakers on Jan 15, 2012 2:07 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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Kelly Johnson is a guy that we had long talked about how nice it would be if the Jays could pick him up. He has a down year and we were able to make a trade of our disappointing 2B (plus Johnny Mac) for him.
The trouble with buying low is that sometimes low is the new level of ability of a player. In this case, after hitting .209/.287/.412 in 114 games with the Diamondbacks he hit .270/.364/.417 in 33 games with us. Shouldn't read much into such a small sample though. Aaron Hill hit great in his 33 games with Arizona too.
The last 2 seasons Kelly has had UZRs of 7.7 and 3.1, which matches up nicely with what my eyes saw, I thought the was a pretty good defensive player, maybe not Gold Glove level but pretty good. I thought he turned the DP well too.
Here are Kelly's career numbers.
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 23 | ATL | 87 | 334 | 290 | 46 | 70 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 75 | .241 | .334 | .397 | .731 |
| 2007 | 25 | ATL | 147 | 608 | 521 | 91 | 144 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 68 | 9 | 5 | 79 | 117 | .276 | .375 | .457 | .831 |
| 2008 | 26 | ATL | 150 | 614 | 547 | 86 | 157 | 39 | 6 | 12 | 69 | 11 | 6 | 52 | 113 | .287 | .349 | .446 | .795 |
| 2009 | 27 | ATL | 106 | 346 | 303 | 47 | 68 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 32 | 54 | .224 | .303 | .389 | .692 |
| 2010 | 28 | ARI | 154 | 671 | 585 | 93 | 166 | 36 | 5 | 26 | 71 | 13 | 7 | 79 | 148 | .284 | .370 | .496 | .865 |
| 2011 | 29 | TOT | 147 | 613 | 545 | 75 | 121 | 27 | 7 | 21 | 58 | 16 | 6 | 60 | 163 | .222 | .304 | .413 | .717 |
| 2011 | 29 | ARI | 114 | 481 | 430 | 59 | 90 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 49 | 13 | 3 | 44 | 132 | .209 | .287 | .412 | .699 |
| 2011 | 29 | TOR | 33 | 132 | 115 | 16 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 31 | .270 | .364 | .417 | .781 |
| 6 Seasons | 791 | 3186 | 2791 | 438 | 726 | 160 | 34 | 92 | 335 | 58 | 27 | 342 | 670 | .260 | .343 | .441 | .784 | ||
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 653 | 572 | 90 | 149 | 33 | 7 | 19 | 69 | 12 | 6 | 70 | 137 | .260 | .343 | .441 | .784 | ||
The question here is what will he do in 2012. Bill James figures him to hit .251/.334/.496, with 19 home runs and 62 RBI (I think Bill figures the Jays will be smart enough to bat Kelly in the 2 spot) in 148 games. Those numbers look pretty good to me.
I'll guess .265/.355/.520, with 22 homers and 70 RBI in 145 games. Tell us what you think.
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Terms will be interesting
Because it’s mostly control years, it won’t end up badly for Washington compared to the free agent value. But relative to going year to year, I imagine Washington may regret it if Gonzalez doesn’t take a step forward, but if Gonzalez can harness the control, they may do quite nicely
the options make this a really good deal
though I don’t believe Gio is that good
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
His bat should play well in the Rogers Centre as well as Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards
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I was hoping the Jays might take a chance on him.
by hrv2010 on Jan 15, 2012 8:22 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
If he rakes this year
Would you guys want to extend him? I think he’d sign a team friendly contract, I hear him do interviews on the radio, he’s over the moon for the city, and the team.
If its a team friendly contract, why not?
Can’t speak about the market next season, but 2B looked extremely bare this season. As far as I know there aren’t many great 2B prospects knocking on the door for the Jays either
Really depends if there would be a home team discount
His career has been pretty volitile…up year, down year. I’m not sure I’d want to pay him what he’d probably want after a big season, given what he could get in the free agent market.
If he has a big year, there are two options. First, trade at the deadline if a contender needs an upgrade. If you’re in the hunt and you don’t want to be sellers, hold on, make the conditional offer of $12 or 13M, and he probably declines to get a multi-year deal albeit at a lower AAV. If he accepts, you’ve got a solid 2B who probabl put up something like 3-4WAR on a one year deal, which is pretty good.
As for the 2B prospect cupboard, yeah, it’s pretty bare at the upper levels. But you can always flip some talent in one area for a 2B
hopefully Jiminez, Crouse, Knecht etc
and the pitchers take a step forward while moving up a level (or more). that’ll give us a lot more value in trade from our prospects.
I seem to recall reading (can't recall where)
That the Jays had been working Jimenez out (or were thinking about it, my recollection are a little vague) at 2B with an eye at a potential position change since C appears to be more or less blocked at the ML level
interesting
I always heard his defense was (at least part of) his calling card at C. his plate discipline looks pretty good for a C (especially if he can keep his Ks down so low) but he’ll have to develop at least some power to be a good hitter at another position
Yeah
I don’t see the point of moving Jimenez off of C. Isn’t he our best C prospect, defense-wise?
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Maybe it was Perez
Damn, the details are a little sketchy in my mind.
It was either Perez or Jimenez, and either they were allegedly thinking about it or had him working out
stuff like range factors, errors, and passed balls say d'Arnaud is better though
so I have no clue
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Fasano liked Jimenez better defensively
Really raved about him last year when he was the manager at Lansing. He likes d’Arnaud too, but noted more things he needed to work on defensively than he did about Jimenez.
Hic sunt fortuna dracones
There is only 1 "n" in Hutchison
depends a little bit on Hech (and maybe Jon Diaz) for me
and whatever opportunities we come across to acquire a good, young-ish 2B to replace KJ`
doesn't mean it wouldn't be a horrible deal
I mean Uggla got 4/44, and he’s better and has a better track record (even with a 4-5 WAR season from KJ) than KJ does
Will be average
.250/.355/.430 18HR
Will have a decent year defensively. He’s not our long term 2B. I bet he’s gone after next year.
by Cybertooth Tiger on Jan 15, 2012 4:23 PM EST reply actions
That line is is much better than average
With average defense, I think that would easily put him top 10 in baseball for 2B last year.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 15, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Would be about a .345 wOBA, probably around +10 runs above average offensively, add in the +2.5 positional adjustment, and you get 3 WAR or a bit more over 150 games.
So yeah, I’d say bottom of the top-10
and he's basically average defensively
0 DRS over past two seasons, +10 UZR. but if you go back 4 seasons, it’s -6 DRS and +2 UZR
you're right
I started thinking average, then my fingers typed optimistically. Hopefully I am right, but I have my doubts. I think Rasmus is our likeliest candidate to really explode this year.
by Cybertooth Tiger on Jan 15, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
It's really the OBP
If you cranked that back 20 points (line with his career average, deflated a bit for your lower projections in BA and SLG) then he’s basicall average…that would take away 7-10 runs offensively and push him decidenly towards average
If AA ever wrote a memoir after all this
I think he would say, the first time things didn’t go as he planned, was with KJ. I think he had a second basemen he was targeting, but could not do it with KJ on the roster.
@VagabondBansal
I believe arbitration rewards a non-guaranteed contract
I think it means the Jays would be on the hook for something like 1/4 or 1/6 of the arbitration settlement. I doubt that would stop the Jays from picking up a young controllable 2B.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 15, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
if he was going to get a great deal on a 2B much better than KJ
besides that I think that would be pretty unlikely (Prado is the main one, he’s only under team control for 2 years and isn’t much better than Kelly), he would have gone ahead with it. he probably could have made a handshake agreement with KJ to decline, and even if not someone out there would be happy with KJ on a risk-free deal
Big season for him, I'm guessing
.270/.360/.440
20 HR, 70 RBI
I think he will do good
.265/.340/.430 with 20 HR even.
Johnson's funny
He seems to be Jekyll and Hyde…one year you get the good Johnson, the next the bad Johnson. He seems be a making less contact in recent years, but still squares things up when he does.
140 games
.255/.335/.440
22 HR
That’s my average projection, but I think it will end up closer to one of the following lnes:
.240/.320/.410, 18 HR
.280/.365/.470, 27 HR
So let’s hope for the latter – and he seems to have this weird even year/odd year thing, so by that logic it should be a good year
I was going to say that KJ could have a big impact on the team
but if he’s only here for a year and not going to be part of our “contending years” then I don’t overly care what he does outside of entertainment value.
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
Fair enough
but if he does good enough, he could net us 2 picks (after a big season he may want to turn down 12M to get a long term deal), be used as trade bait to a contender desperate for a 2B, or be signed to an extension to fill that hole if nothing else materializes.
I would say there is at least a decent chance that AA tries to retain Johnson, since he is one of those players AA had been targeting for a while.
by Playoffs!!!!1 on Jan 16, 2012 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
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