Make Your Predictions: Brett Lawrie
by Tom Dakers on Jan 16, 2012 4:14 PM EST
in Toronto Blue Jays Opinions
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PrintIt was a great year for Brett Lawrie, if you overlook a couple of baseballs off the hand: one a pitched ball in Triple-A that broke a bone in his hand and a ground ball, in practice, that fractured a finger. If Brett had been called up at the start of the season, like many wanted, odds are he would have a Rookie of the Year award on his shelf. I'd have been happy too, we wouldn't have had to watch Jayson Nix.
The only real question we had about him, going in, was whether he could play defense at third. I don't know about you, but I thought he did a good job, showing good range. He is going to make some errors, but third is a reaction position with long throws, errors happen. Not that he played enough to make UZR numbers mean a lot, fangraphs has him at a 15.7 UZR/150, a very good number.
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 21 | TOR-min | AAA,A+ | 73 | 340 | 300 | 64 | 104 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 62 | 13 | 2 | 26 | 54 | .347 | .414 | .647 | 1.060 | |
| 2011 | 21 | TOR | AL | 43 | 171 | 150 | 26 | 44 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 31 | .293 | .373 | .580 | .953 | 152 |
The question for today is how he will do in 2012. Bill James guess is that he hits .284/.337/.495 with 22 home runs, 75 RBI and 30 stolen bases in 153 games. I like his guess.
I'll go 147 games, 24 home runs, 75 RBI, 25 stolen bases and a .280/.350/.500 line.
Your turn.
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I'll take the over on your prediction Tom
Slightly over, nothing crazy, because if I go too crazy, I won’t be amazed when it happens.
148 games
280/363/522
30 HR
71 RBI (who cares)
18 SB
162 games
1.000/1.000/4.000
650 HRs
1000 RBIs
0 SBs
Here's my attempt at a witty sig. Didn't really go so well, methinks.
Wise men wonder, while strong men die.
by Cam Oegema on Jan 16, 2012 4:21 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
Impossible. He'll draw an intentional walk for every PA.
by Defense Counts! on Jan 17, 2012 5:22 AM EST up reply actions
Nope, because he’ll hit every pitch they attempt to intentionally walk him ith.
Here's my attempt at a witty sig. Didn't really go so well, methinks.
Wise men wonder, while strong men die.
156 Games – .305/.386/.566 – 30 HR, 96RBI
by Marc Henderson on Jan 16, 2012 4:23 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I think I'll go with that
but with 25 HR
by REMO on Jan 16, 2012 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you mean co-MVP with Bautista
Toronto Maple Leafs: All about the Lemon Grabs
Twitter
by LeafFan1989 on Jan 16, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Ever hear of the Sophomore Slump? Lawrie is the Sophomore Slump-Buster!
First full year in the Big Show, The Kid is going to put up the following numbers:
33 homers
35 stolen bases
315 avg/360 OBS/540SLG/ .1000 OPS
He will come in 2 or 3rd in MVP voting behind Joey Bats who is going to hit 49 dingers and hit 325 this season.
Umm
Hate to burst the bubble, but 360 OBP + 540 SLG = 900 OPS
And the OPS is way too to low relative to the BA (whatever one thinks of the BA projection)
oops
a mistake, sorry.
make it a 460 obp an d hopefully that will make my BA predicition easier for you to swallow to. I just threw it out there for fun my bottom line being Brett Lawrie is going to be amazing in 2012.
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Jan 16, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
.216/.250/.300
Kidding.
.288/.340/.550
25Hr/85RBI/20 sb
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 16, 2012 4:58 PM EST reply actions
Side-note;
Anyone else around here think Lawrie wearing #13 might be bad luck?
Nope
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
by Frag on Jan 16, 2012 5:18 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Bad luck in that....
Mats Sundin never won a championship or even went to the finals. And the best team he ever played for wasn’t even in Toronto.
Man who has four balls cannot walk
by Beer Leaguer on Jan 16, 2012 5:27 PM EST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
Mats Sundin never won a championship or even went to the finals.
You know who has? Brett Lebda.
/shudders
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
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Now that I think about it
You may have a point…
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
Mats Sundin is the greatest Leaf ever
The guy never had any talent that was in their prime during his entire career with the Leafs yet performed at close to a point/per game in the offensively challenged era of the NHL from 1994-2006.
this
just guaranteed the curse. Thanks a lot Leafs fans. you just had to go and rec this. THE CURSE IS ON!!!
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Jan 16, 2012 7:16 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah. no.
+1 is only good if you actually rec the post
by Bowling_Guy25 on Jan 16, 2012 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
Don't worry
I performed an old Hittite midwifery ritual to break all hexes, curses and jinxes on the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 16, 2012 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
LOL
this made me spit my beverage out when i read it. Good one.
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Jan 16, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions
Was it a carbonated beverage?
That can sting.
I have a nice cooling salve for the nose if you want the recipe.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 16, 2012 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
congratulations
you are the first person to ever offer me a cooling salve for the nose. but no thanks, it was just water i’m cool.
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Jan 16, 2012 7:15 PM EST up reply actions
In fact..
No one wore 13 on either championship team the Jays have had…Luis Sojo changed from 13 to 2 during the year in 93, and never wore it again in any of his 4 other championship seasons. Hmm…
this...
is interesting.
I wonder if Lawrie will break camp with #13.
Down-side: Lawrie may have some sort of personal connection to the number, upset fans who already paid $$$ for #13 jerseys
Upside: Curse is lifted and all the Jays fans who already bought Lawrie #13 shirts will still shell out $$$ for his new number :P
by TrueBlue4Ever! on Jan 16, 2012 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
Who cares about numbers? I say: HELLUVA YEAR!
"Touch ´em all, Joe!"
by jaysfanfromeurope on Jan 16, 2012 5:00 PM EST reply actions
Oh YEAH!!!
.295/.390/.615
32 HRs
97 RBIs
25 SBs
by Marcos Montenegro on Jan 16, 2012 5:00 PM EST reply actions
.290/.361/.490
24 HR
88 RBI
23 SB
6 CS
2 kisses to the home crowd while circling the bases after hitting a home run off of Mariano Rivera
1 MVP trophy and 1st ballot into the HoF
"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr
Sorry, unauthorized hotlinking of copyrighted material not permitted.
.273 / .357 / .498 18hr 65rbi 15sb
by hrv2010 on Jan 16, 2012 5:51 PM EST via iPhone app reply actions
Guys, this is getting a little ridiculous...
None of you have brought up the Gold Glove, Silver Slugger and Hank Aaron award he’s going to win
by Aidin on Jan 16, 2012 5:53 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Not to mention
The number of women he’ll score with
by yescobar on Jan 16, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
what's the over/under on this?
and would this only count during the season?
.850 OPS for Lawrie would be great
Pitchers are going to be adjusting quite a bit in their approach to Lawrie. I’m not so sure about his RBI totals since that’s dependent on where he bats in the lineup. I think if we can .850 OPS from him we should be ecstatic.
Agreed
.850 OPS should be his goal but realistically if he finished above .800 that’s top 8 in the league out of 3B as a 22 year old.
Brett - no pressure kid...
I’m too afraid to say what I think for fear of jinksing him.
What I do know is that IF by the All Star break he’s still batting 6th or lower in the lineup then Lind and EE will be raking and things will be looking up…unfortunately…I expect to see the kid batting cleanup by mid-June.
Why is it unfortunate that he'd be hitting clean up?
Even if Lind/EE suck, Lawrie would have to be doing pretty good to bat in that slot
We are better then last year....
There has been a lot of fans hating on AA for not adding a bat in the middle of the order. I am not one of them. How many games did we loss because we had 3rd occupied by guys that combined to hit around .170 and a handful of hrs? I would think Lawrie will win us at least 5 games ( I think I am undervaluing his impact). Now how many game will having Johnson over Hill at 2nd win us, 2-3 would not be out of the question. Not to sure how many games having Rasmus in CF will get us over Davis since I believe Davis’ speed single handed won us a handful of games. By having Johnson and Lawrie AA has added that bat in the middle of the order. Lets play ball. Can’t wait
I would like to add one more name
Not having Jo-Jo pitching every 5th day will make our bullpen/Rotation much better and has to win us another 5-10 games….as long as Drabek, Dustin, or any other candidate doesn’t blow like Jo-Jo did last year or for his whole career. That bring our total of wins to 10+. In a perfect world that would mean the Jays would have at least 90 wins. Is that enough for a wild card or worse case scenario a 3rd place finish in the ALE?
Pretty sure Drabek blew way more than Jo-Jo last year
not that I think he’ll do it again
His 2011 wRC+ is 26
Jays were 9-10 in Jo-Jo's starts
somehow the Jays will go between 14-5 and 19-0 in Drabek’s (much worse than Jo-Jo) and McGowan’s (5 appearances since 2008) starts?
mmkay
I still think Carlos Lee and Bartolo Colon are the missing pieces
this team needs to win the WS.
Lee + Colon + Blue Jays = World Series Title
I’m going to put that on a T-shirt.
thisrighthere!
by TonyFernandezSavedMyLife on Jan 16, 2012 9:58 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Carlos Lee to Bartolo Colon's Dr.
" just stem cell EVERYTHING DAMMIT!! I’ve got a franchise to save..a whole country even."
by ABsteve on Jan 16, 2012 10:15 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Can Colon
give some cells from his stem to Lee?
Excuse me, do these effectively hide my thunder?
by T.Dot_Bronco on Jan 16, 2012 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
Ha
Lee+ Colon + Weight Watchers = Winning
In honor of the Jays 2nd Baseman who played with fire in more ways than one.
by Damaso's Burnt Shirt on Jan 17, 2012 12:31 AM EST up reply actions
He'll Accomplish
.277/.333/.499
21 HR
Win the nom for President of the United States
Become the next Canadian PM
Storm 4 castles in Europe
End world hunger
Cure cancer
and beat the Emperor of Japan in a arm wrestling contest
He'll be average or worse.. For sure. Definitely. Absolutely.
(My predictions are always wrong, so I’m doing him a favor here).
by Defense Counts! on Jan 17, 2012 5:26 AM EST reply actions
My prediction
.273/.324/.480
23 HR, 67 RBI
Or, a co-MVP season with Bautista. Either way works for me.
99% of player salaries are payed out to only 1% of players. #OccupyNHL
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CanadianMaple09 is an effective Facebook stalker.
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